Recent itsdavis_energy items

Comparative Analysis of Global Transportation/Energy Models: Methodologies, Scenarios and Policy Implications

Wed, 15 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This paper compares global transportation/energy models in terms of scope, structure and the types of scenarios that have been developed, with particular emphasis on projections of low-carbon fuels like hydrogen, biofuels, e-fuels and electricity in transportation decarbonization scenarios. Our review of the models and their scenarios indicates that scenarios with deep CO₂ reduction or globally ambitious climate policies tend to show a large increase in the role of electrification, advanced biofuels and in some cases hydrogen in transport energy by 2050 and/or later years. Different transport modes and sectors have different requirements and are projected to adopt different low-carbon fuels. Electricity is projected to play a key role in road and rail, though liquid low-carbon fuels dominate shipping and aviation and are expected to eventually surpass petroleum use. Deep CO2 reduction scenarios tend to assume strong policies that drive reductions. Policies such as efficiency...

Technology and Fuel Transition Scenarios to Low Greenhouse Gas Futures for Cars and Trucks in California to 2050

Tue, 5 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The savings to California from transitioning to zero-emission cars and trucks by 2050 is about $300 billion.

These savings result mostly from the cost of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) dropping close to or below the cost of gasoline and diesel vehicles; additional savings come from operational cost advantages.

Policies at the state and national level, as well as the success of ZEV manufacturers, will affect California’s ability to achieve ZEV adoption targets and realize net economic benefits. However, even in the absence of ZEV-supportive policies, the global embrace of electric vehicles and the resulting cost reductions from innovation and scale economies will lead to substantial benefits and savings for California.

2030 Hydrogen Goals in the Road Transportation Sector: A comparative analysis between the European Union and California

Tue, 18 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This paper reviews and analyzes the hydrogen-related targets and policies set for 2030 in California and the European Union, particularly related to the transportation sector. Both regions have strongly committed to decarbonizing transportation and transitioning toward clean energy sources, including hydrogen fuel cell vehicle technology. We examine the projected hydrogen demand for light and heavy-duty vehicles, plans for hydrogen production and use, and infrastructure needed, such as refueling stations. We also review announced policy frameworks and strategies driving the transition to clean hydrogen energy in California and the EU. We also consider the impact of US-level policies on California and its hydrogen/fuel cell vehicle efforts. This paper reflects the situation in these jurisdictions as of December 2024. Potential changes in policy given the change in US administration in January of 2025 are not considered.

Our investigation finds that concerning vehicles,...

A Comparative Review of Hydrogen Engines and Fuel Cells for Trucks

Mon, 12 Aug 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The concept of hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) is not new, but has gained renewed interest lately, especially for heavy-duty trucks. Different from hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), which represent a novel zero-emission technology, hydrogen engines are modified conventional engines running on hydrogen fuel instead of gasoline or diesel. This study presents a comparative review of hydrogen engines and fuel cells, based on existing reports and discussions with industry. We consider aspects such as vehicle efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria pollutant emissions, hydrogen fuel purity, vehicle attributes, vehicle acquisition costs, total costs of ownership, and new policies. We find that hydrogen ICEVs offer some advantages and disadvantages: advantages include lower production cost and potentially greater reliability; disadvantages include potentially overall lower efficiency (and thus higher fuel cost) and lack of zero-vehicle-emission operation....

International Zero-Emission Heavy-Duty Vehicle Infrastructure: Policy Playbook

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000

International Zero-Emission Heavy-Duty Vehicle Infrastructure: Policy Playbook

Zero-Emission Trucks: Benefits Analysis and Policy Synergy Recommendations

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Zero-Emission Trucks: Benefits Analysis and Policy Synergy Recommendations

Hydrogen Storage and Transport: Technologies and Costs

Mon, 4 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Hydrogen Storage and Transport: Technologies and Costs

The Role of Clean Fuel Systems in a California Hydrogen Transition: A Comparison of Hydrogen, Synthetic Natural Gas, and Related Fuels

Mon, 20 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0000

The Role of Clean Fuel Systems in a California Hydrogen Transition: A Comparison of Hydrogen, Synthetic Natural Gas, and Related Fuels

Future Electric Vehicle Production in the United States and Europe – Will It Be Enough?

Thu, 24 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

The US and Europe have ambitious plans and targets for light-duty electric vehicle (EV) market growth. This study estimates planned EV production capacity in both regions and investigates whether coordinating their combined production capacity would help them meet targets. We find that, while each region is developing a strong EV production capacity domestically, either may fall short of their targets given investments in EV production announced to-date. Transatlantic trade can serve as a critical “spare capacity” to add assurance. Yet, in scenarios where both regions seek higher EV sales targets, a combined shortfall in annual EV production capacity could reach over 6 million EVs compared to the 20 million needed by 2030. An additional investment of about $42 billion across both regions could address this concern, however, time is getting short to build new plants and bring them online. The capacity shortfall may persist even with planned EV production capacity from other major...

Technology and Fuel Transition: Pathways to Low Greenhouse Gas Futures for Cars and Trucks in the United States

Thu, 20 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000

In this study, we investigate how potential changes in US light-duty and medium/heavy-duty vehicle technology and fuel mix from 2020 to 2050 may affect the transition to a very low-carbon future in the United States. Given US targets to reach 50% or more zero-emission vehicle sales by 2030, we consider new sales trajectories for battery-electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and rates of uptake across the country needed to reach these. We also consider biofuels use (ethanol and renewable diesel) in remaining internal combustion engine cars and trucks to minimize GHG emissions from those vehicles. Costs of all vehicles sold, and their fuel and other operating costs, are calculated and projected. To account for characteristics of specific vehicle types (e.g., weight, application, fuel economy, drive cycle, etc.), we disaggregate light-duty vehicles and medium/heavy-duty vehicles into ten subcategories. Relative to a business-as-usual case, we develop a series of low-carbon...

California Hydrogen Infrastructure and ZEV Adoption Towards a Carbon Free Grid in 2045

Mon, 11 Jul 2022 00:00:00 +0000

The transportation sector is a major source of California’s greenhouse gas emissions, contributing 41% of the state total[1]. California policy is moving rapidly toward Zero Emission battery electric vehicles (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV). Governor Newsom has issued an executive order that all new in-state sales of passenger vehicles should be Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) by 2035. Further, the California Air Resources Board has approved rulemaking requiring that more than half of trucks sold in the state must be zero-emissions by 2035, and all of them by 2045 [1a].California has the ambitious goal of achieving a 60% renewable electricity grid by 2030 and 100% carbon free grid by 2045. High penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) requires seasonal storage to match supply and demand and hydrogen could be a possible candidate for this purpose [1b]. The author has developed the CALZEEV energy-economic model to study possible roles for hydrogen in a VRE intensive...

Analysis and Projections of BEVs, Renewable Electricity, and GHG Reductions through 2050

Thu, 1 Aug 2019 00:00:00 +0000

This report makes an initial investigation into the potential for combining very high penetration levels of electric vehicles with similarly very high penetration of variable renewable electricity (VRE) in California. A literature review is performed regarding the potential for high levels of EV sales and VRE penetration at both the U.S. and California level. Such scenarios have been developed by a number of researchers, such as U.S. national laboratories for the White House (under the Obama Administration), and by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) for the California Energy Commission. Such studies indicate that both of these “extreme” futures are entirely plausible and have the potential to coexist. However, none of the reviewed studies has undertaken detailed analysis of how large numbers of EVs could interact with and support a VRE-dominated system, and how these might interact in a useful way. This could include grid-to-vehicle (G2V) and vehicle- to-grid (V2G)...