Recent itsdavis_steps items

Future Electric Vehicle Production in the United States and Europe – Will It Be Enough?

Thu, 24 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

The US and Europe have ambitious plans and targets for light-duty electric vehicle (EV) market growth. This study estimates planned EV production capacity in both regions and investigates whether coordinating their combined production capacity would help them meet targets. We find that, while each region is developing a strong EV production capacity domestically, either may fall short of their targets given investments in EV production announced to-date. Transatlantic trade can serve as a critical “spare capacity” to add assurance. Yet, in scenarios where both regions seek higher EV sales targets, a combined shortfall in annual EV production capacity could reach over 6 million EVs compared to the 20 million needed by 2030. An additional investment of about $42 billion across both regions could address this concern, however, time is getting short to build new plants and bring them online. The capacity shortfall may persist even with planned EV production capacity from other major...

Aspects of Thermal Management of Lithium Batteries in PHEVs Using Supercapacitors

Fri, 18 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

In this paper, the use of supercapacitors in the electric driveline of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) is analyzed from the design, performance, and economic points-of-view. The supercapacitors are envisioned to be part of the motor and electronics package and thus the same electric drive package can be combined with batteries of different energy storage capacity (kWh) as needed to meet the specific all-electric range the vehicle. In all cases the PHEVs in the all-electric mode had the performance of an EV having attractive acceleration characteristics. A 120kW electric motor is used in all the PHEVs studied. The use of the supercapacitors to load-level the storage battery permits the use of an energy battery rather than a power battery in PHEVs. Energy batteries have higher energy density, longer cycle life, and lower cost than power batteries of the same energy storage capacity (kWh). The weight, volume, and cost of the supercapacitors plus the energy battery are close to that...

Creating a Global Hydrogen Economy: Review of International Strategies, Targets, and Policies with a Focus on Japan, Germany, South Korea, and California

Fri, 9 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Motivated by increasing emphasis on decarbonization, hydrogen as an energy carrier is enjoying unprecedented political and business momentum. This paper reviews the status of hydrogen strategies and progress in major global economies, with a particular focus on four leading jurisdictions (Japan, Germany, S. Korea and California). These have been among the most aggressive, though in different ways. Japan, Germany, and S. Korea have been more focused on developing a sustainable hydrogen supply chain, while California has been more focused on spurring hydrogen demand, especially in the transportation sector. Japan’s strategy involves forging partnerships to import “blue” hydrogen (from methane with carbon abatement strategies) while Germany has focused on “green” (e.g., electrolytic) hydrogen production, along with plans to leverage its extensive natural gas pipelines for hydrogen distribution. Japan anticipates the power sector to be the largest consumer of hydrogen, while others...

Evaluation of the Economics of Battery-Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks and Buses: Methods, Issues, and Results

Fri, 5 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000

This study evaluates the economics of various types and classes of medium-duty and heavy-duty battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles relative to the corresponding diesel-engine powered vehicle for 2020-2040. The study includes: large passenger vans, class 3 city delivery vans, class 4 step city delivery trucks, class 6 box trucks, class 7 box trucks, class 8 box trucks, city transit buses, long haul tractor trailer trucks, city short haul tractor trailer delivery trucks, inter-city buses, and HD pickup trucks. Typical designs were formulated for each vehicle type in terms of its road driving and load characteristics and powertrain and energy storage components. The performance and energy consumption of the electrified trucks were simulated for appropriate driving cycles using the ADVISOR simulation program. The vehicle design characteristics were varied over 2020-2040 to reflect expected technology improvements. The study then focused on estimating...

Use Of Liquid Hydrogen in Heavy-Duty Vehicle Applications: Station And Vehicle Technology and Cost Considerations

Thu, 14 Jul 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Use Of Liquid Hydrogen in Heavy-Duty Vehicle Applications: Station And Vehicle Technology and Cost Considerations

The Current and Future Performance and Costs of Battery Electric Trucks: Review of Key Studies and A Detailed Comparison of Their Cost Modeling Scope and Coverage

Wed, 29 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000

This project aims to assess the current and future performance and costs of battery electric trucking, through reviewing key recent studies in the U.S. and presenting a detailed comparison of their cost modeling scope and coverage. This white paper presents a review of 10 recent studies of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of battery electric trucks (BET), now and in the future, compared to a baseline diesel truck, for the following 3 important types of truck: heavy-duty long-haul trucks, medium-duty delivery trucks, and heavy-duty drayage/short-haul trucks. The researchers break down the studies into their estimates for a range of important cost and operating factors, such as vehicle purchase cost, efficiency, fuel cost, maintenance cost, required range and thus battery pack sizing, and other factors. Of note are differences in major assumptions of studies and variables that are included or excluded from consideration. The authors do not judge these studies against each other...

Spatial Scenarios for Market Penetration of Plug-in Battery Electric Trucks in the U.S.

Thu, 23 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Carbon emissions targets require large reductions in greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the near-to mid-term, and the transportation sector is a major emitter of GHGs. To understand potential pathways to GHG reductions, this project developed the U.S. Transportation Transitions Model (US TTM) to study various scenarios of zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) market penetration in the U.S. The model includes vehicle fuel economy, vehicle stock and sales, fuel carbon intensities, and costs for vehicles and fuels all projected through 2050. Market penetration scenarios through 2050 are input as percentages of sales for all vehicle types and technologies. Three scenarios were developed for the U.S.: a business as usual (BAU), low carbon (LC), and High ZEV scenario. The LC and High ZEV include rapid penetration of ZEVs into the vehicle market. The introduction of ZEVs requires fueling infrastructure to support the vehicles. Initial deployments of ZEVs are expected to be dominated by battery electric...

Evaluation of the Economics of Light-Duty Battery-Electric and Fuel Cell Passenger Cars, SUVs, and Trucks: Methods, Issues, and Infrastructure

Fri, 29 Apr 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Evaluation of the Economics of Light-Duty Battery-Electric and Fuel Cell Passenger Cars, SUVs, and Trucks: Methods, Issues, and Infrastructure

Cargo Routing and Disadvantaged Communities

Thu, 4 Nov 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Freight is fundamental to economic growth, however, the trucks that haul this freight are pollution intensive, emitting criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases at high rates. The increasing volume and time-sensitivity of freight demand over the past decade has encouraged carriers to take the fastest route, which is often not an eco-friendly route. The increase in urban freight movement has thus brought along negative externalities such as congestion, emissions, and noise into cities. Alternative fuel technologies, such as electric trucks and hydrogen-fuel trucks can significantly reduce freight-related emissions. However, despite their lower operational costs, the high purchase cost and consequent longer payback periods compared to traditional vehicles, have resulted in slow adoption rates. Since the need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and local criteria pollutants is immediate, accounting for externalities in carriers’ tactical and operational decision-making in the...

Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements for Zero-Emission Freight Applications in California

Tue, 16 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Zero-emission vehicles are seen as key technologies for reducing freight- related air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. California’s 2016 Sustainable Freight Action Plan established a target of 100,000 zero-emission freight vehicles utilizing renewable fuels by 2030. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are a promising zero-emission technology, especially for applications where batteries might be difficult to implement, such as heavy-duty trucks, rail, shipping and aviation. However, California’s current hydrogen infrastructure is sparse, with about 25 stations, primarily sited to serve fuel cell passenger vehicles and buses. New infrastructure strategies will be critical for implementing hydrogen freight applications. The researchers analyzed hydrogen infrastructure requirements, focusing on hydrogen fuel cells in freight applications, using a California-specific EXCEL-based scenario model developed under the Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways program (STEPS) at the Institute...

Estimating the Costs of New Mobility Travel Options: Monetary and Non-Monetary Factors

Thu, 1 Oct 2020 00:00:00 +0000

UC Davis researchers have developed a cost model of travel choices that individuals make related to urban vehicle travel. These choices can include deciding to own, ride in, and drive a private vehicle or use pooled or solo ridesourcing (e.g., Uber). The model considers both monetary and non-monetary factors that affect travel choice. Monetary factors include the costs of purchasing, maintaining, and fueling different types of privately owned vehicles; and the cost of using ridesourcing services. Non-monetary (or “hedonic”) factors include travel time, parking time/inconvenience, willingness to drive or be a passenger in a driven or automated vehicle, and willingness to travel with strangers. The travel choices affected by these factors impact broader society through traffic congestion, pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, accidents, etc. and thus may be an important focus of policy. This report reviews recent literature, considers factors affecting travel choices, and reports,...

Strategies for Transitioning to Low-Carbon Emission Trucks in the United States

Mon, 8 Apr 2019 00:00:00 +0000

This white paper reviews previous studies on prospects for reducing CO2 emissions from trucks. It provides a new investigation into the feasibility of achieving an 80% reduction in CO2-equivalent (CO2e) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States and California from trucks by 2050. The authors assess the technological and economic potential of achieving deep market penetrations of low-carbon vehicles and fuels, including vehicles operating on electricity, hydrogen, and biofuels. Achieving such a target for trucks will be very challenging and, if focused on hydrogen and electric zero emission vehicle (ZEV) technologies, will require strong sales growth beginning no later than 2025.

View the NCST Project Webpage

The Potential to Build Current Natural Gas Infrastructure to Accommodate the Future Conversion to Near-Zero Transportation Technology

Sat, 16 Mar 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The emergence of natural gas as an abundant, inexpensive fuel in the United States has highlighted the possibility that natural gas could play a significant role in the transition to low carbon fuels. Natural gas is often cited as a “bridge” to low carbon fuels in the transportation sector. Major corporations are already investing billions of dollars to build infrastructure to feed natural gas into the U.S. trucking industry and expand the use of natural gas in fleets. In the state of California, natural gas fueling infrastructure is expanding, especially in and around the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The use of natural gas fueled medium and heavy duty fleets is currently on an upswing. The authors examine the precise natural gas infrastructure that is economically and technologically synergistic for both natural gas and renewable natural gas in the near-term, and alternative fuels like renewable natural gas (RNG) and hydrogen in the long term. In particular, the authors...

Assessment of Critical Barriers to Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Deployment – Workshop Series

Thu, 21 Feb 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The University of California, Davis and the California Energy Commission held a series of three Emerging Technologies Workshops in late 2015 and early 2016. The goal of these workshops was to identify environmentally and economically promising alternative fuel and vehicle emerging technologies, and to identify and evaluate the critical business and policy barriers blocking their widespread adoption in the State and develop solutions for those barriers. Additionally, the workshops were to analyze the broad range of commercial barriers and identify strategies to increase the adoption and rapid scale-up of emerging technologies, fuels and fueling infrastructure that will help the state achieve its goals for air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. Each of these workshops convened groups of over 100 stakeholders engaged in the commercialization of emerging technologies for the light-, medium- and heavy-duty transportation sectors. Participants included manufacturers of incumbent...