- Matsushita, Kunihiro;
- Kaptoge, Stephen;
- Hageman, Steven;
- Sang, Yingying;
- Ballew, Shoshana;
- Grams, Morgan;
- Surapaneni, Aditya;
- Sun, Luanluan;
- Arnlov, Johan;
- Bozic, Milica;
- Brenner, Hermann;
- Brunskill, Nigel;
- Chang, Alex;
- Chinnadurai, Rajkumar;
- Cirillo, Massimo;
- Correa, Adolfo;
- Ebert, Natalie;
- Eckardt, Kai-Uwe;
- Gansevoort, Ron;
- Gutierrez, Orlando;
- Hadaegh, Farzad;
- He, Jiang;
- Hwang, Shih-Jen;
- Jafar, Tazeen;
- Jassal, Simerjot;
- Kayama, Takamasa;
- Kovesdy, Csaba;
- Landman, Gijs;
- Levey, Andrew;
- Lloyd-Jones, Donald;
- Major, Rupert;
- Miura, Katsuyuki;
- Muntner, Paul;
- Nadkarni, Girish;
- Nowak, Christoph;
- Ohkubo, Takayoshi;
- Pena, Michelle;
- Polkinghorne, Kevan;
- Sairenchi, Toshimi;
- Schaeffner, Elke;
- Schneider, Markus;
- Shalev, Varda;
- Shlipak, Michael;
- Solbu, Marit;
- Stempniewicz, Nikita;
- Tollitt, James;
- Valdivielso, José;
- van der Leeuw, Joep;
- Wang, Angela;
- Wen, Chi-Pang;
- Woodward, Mark;
- Yamagishi, Kazumasa;
- Yatsuya, Hiroshi;
- Zhang, Luxia;
- Dorresteijn, Jannick;
- Di Angelantonio, Emanuele;
- Visseren, Frank;
- Pennells, Lisa;
- Coresh, Josef
AIMS: The 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention categorizes moderate and severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) as high and very-high CVD risk status regardless of other factors like age and does not include estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria in its algorithms, systemic coronary risk estimation 2 (SCORE2) and systemic coronary risk estimation 2 in older persons (SCORE2-OP), to predict CVD risk. We developed and validated an Add-on to incorporate CKD measures into these algorithms, using a validated approach. METHODS: In 3,054 840 participants from 34 datasets, we developed three Add-ons [eGFR only, eGFR + urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) (the primary Add-on), and eGFR + dipstick proteinuria] for SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. We validated C-statistics and net reclassification improvement (NRI), accounting for competing risk of non-CVD death, in 5,997 719 participants from 34 different datasets. RESULTS: In the target population of SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP without diabetes, the CKD Add-on (eGFR only) and CKD Add-on (eGFR + ACR) improved C-statistic by 0.006 (95%CI 0.004-0.008) and 0.016 (0.010-0.023), respectively, for SCORE2 and 0.012 (0.009-0.015) and 0.024 (0.014-0.035), respectively, for SCORE2-OP. Similar results were seen when we included individuals with diabetes and tested the CKD Add-on (eGFR + dipstick). In 57 485 European participants with CKD, SCORE2 or SCORE2-OP with a CKD Add-on showed a significant NRI [e.g. 0.100 (0.062-0.138) for SCORE2] compared to the qualitative approach in the ESC guideline. CONCLUSION: Our Add-ons with CKD measures improved CVD risk prediction beyond SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. This approach will help clinicians and patients with CKD refine risk prediction and further personalize preventive therapies for CVD.