The efficiency of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission by competent mosquito vectors is driven by temperature and defined, in part, by the extrinsic incubation period, which is the time from a mosquito's consumption of an infected bloodmeal until it becomes capable of transmitting the virus to the next vertebrate host. The extrinsic incubation period can be altered by a variety of factors involved in vector-pathogen interactions, and in North America, the WN02 strain of WNV emerged and displaced the founding NY99 strain reportedly because the duration of the extrinsic incubation period in Culex mosquitoes was shortened by a single positively selected mutation. However, recent work has suggested that this change is not universal and may depend on vector species or strain. In the current study, we estimated the extrinsic incubation periods at 22 and 30°C in Culex tarsalis Coquillett. We found that the time to transmission of the original North American WNV strain, NY99, was not different from two more recent California isolates of the WN02 genotype: one of the earliest California isolates from the southeastern deserts, and a more recent 2011 isolate from a hyperendemic region in the Central Valley. We conclude with a model-based assessment of the epidemiological effects of temperature on the duration of mosquitoes' infectious life, which estimated that most mosquitoes have an infectious life of only a few days, but its duration expands markedly at warmer temperatures.

West Nile virus (WNV) is an important cause of disease in humans and animals. Risk of WNV infection varies seasonally, with the greatest risk during the warmest parts of the year due in part to the accelerated extrinsic incubation rate of the virus in mosquitoes. Rates of extrinsic incubation have been shown in constant-temperature studies to increase as an approximately linear function of temperature, but for other vector-borne pathogens, such as malaria or dengue virus, nonlinear relationships have been demonstrated under cycling temperatures near the thermal limits of pathogen replication. Using typical daily air temperature profiles from three key periods of WNV amplification in a hyperendemic area of WNV activity in California's Central Valley, as well as a fourth temperature profile based on exposures that would result from daily mosquito host-seeking and resting behavior, we explored the impacts of cycling temperatures on WNV transmission by Culex tarsalis Coquillett, one of the principal vectors in the western United States. The daily cycling temperature ranges studied were representative of those that occur across much of California, but they did not significantly alter the extrinsic incubation period of WNV compared with estimates from mean temperatures alone. This suggests that within the relatively broad range we studied, WNV incubation rates are a simple function of mean temperature. Realistic daily temperature patterns that reflected mosquitoes' avoidance of daytime high temperatures during summer reduced transmission over time compared with air temperatures, indicating that adjustment for mosquito exposure temperatures would be prudent for calculating risk.

Local vector control and public health agencies in California use the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan to monitor and evaluate West Nile virus (WNV) activity and guide responses to reduce the burden of WNV disease. All available data from environmental surveillance, such as the abundance and WNV infection rates in Culex tarsalis and the Culex pipiens complex mosquitoes, the numbers of dead birds, seroconversions in sentinel chickens, and ambient air temperatures, are fed into a formula to estimate the risk level and associated risk of human infections. In many other areas of the US, the vector index, based only on vector mosquito abundance and infection rates, is used by vector control programs to estimate the risk of human WNV transmission. We built models to determine the association between risk level and the number of reported symptomatic human disease cases with onset in the following three weeks to identify the essential components of the risk level and to compare California's risk estimates to vector index. Risk level calculations based on Cx. tarsalis and Cx. pipiens complex levels were significantly associated with increased human risk, particularly when accounting for vector control area and population, and were better predictors than using vector index. Including all potential environmental components created an effective tool to estimate the risk of WNV transmission to humans in California.