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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Scholarly Works (5 results)

  • Article
  • Peer Reviewed
UC San Diego Previously Published Works (2022)
The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in both the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We clarify the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols in the context of near-term and long-term climate mitigation, as well as the net effect of decarbonization strategies targeting fossil fuel (FF) phaseout by 2050. Relying on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change radiative forcing, we show that the net historical (2019 to 1750) radiative forcing effect of CO2 and non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by FF sources plus the CO2 emitted by land-use changes is comparable to the net from non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by non-FF sources. We find that mitigation measures that target only decarbonization are essential for strong long-term cooling but can result in weak near-term warming (due to unmasking the cooling effect of coemitted aerosols) and lead to temperatures exceeding 2 °C before 2050. In contrast, pairing decarbonization with additional mitigation measures targeting short-lived climate pollutants and N2O, slows the rate of warming a decade or two earlier than decarbonization alone and avoids the 2 °C threshold altogether. These non-CO2 targeted measures when combined with decarbonization can provide net cooling by 2030 and reduce the rate of warming from 2030 to 2050 by about 50%, roughly half of which comes from methane, significantly larger than decarbonization alone over this time frame. Our analysis demonstrates the need for a comprehensive CO2 and targeted non-CO2 mitigation approach to address both the near-term and long-term impacts of climate disruption.
    Cover page: Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach for avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming
    • Article
    • Peer Reviewed
    LBL Publications (2023)
    Heating and cooling demand for space conditioning and refrigeration accounts for around a fifth of global final energy consumption. Climate change, urbanisation, and economic development have tripled electricity demand for cooling alone since the 1990s, with the majority coming from the use of inefficient cooling equipment, which burdens electricity grids, especially during the peak hours. It is imperative to address the energy required to provide cooling. The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol addresses these needs by setting ambitious global targets to phase down refrigerants with high global warming potential, while improving energy efficiency. Integrating energy efficiency and the refrigerant transition will contribute to economic security, well-being, energy access and security, and sustainability among the G20 countries.
      Cover page: Low Carbon Development Pathways for Cooling: Leveraging Kigali Amendment Across Residential ApplicationsCreative Commons 'BY-NC' version 4.0 license
      • Article
      • Peer Reviewed
      LBL Publications (2020)
      The International Energy Agency expects the global stock of room air conditioners (RACs) to triple between today and 2050, with critical implications for energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Because China produces approximately 70% of the world's RACs, it is in a unique position to lead a global transition to higher-efficiency RACs with substantially lower environmental impact. To date, however, Chinese policies have targeted relatively modest RAC efficiency increases. We recommend that China target production of RACs that use low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants and are at least as efficient as the most efficient RACs produced today in China or on the global market. Specifically, we recommend that China set minimum energy performance standards for RACs at China annual performance factor (APF) 5.4 in 2025 and China APF 6.9 in 2030. This leadership would provide a longer-term policy signal to RAC manufacturers in China, enabling them to meet the efficiency targets cost-effectively by providing adequate time for investment planning. We project that full implementation of our recommended policy could result in global electricity consumption savings of 74 petawatt-hours, CO2 reductions of 49 billion metric tons, and bill savings of 6 trillion U.S. dollars (cumulative benefits 2020–2050). The policy is viable in China because of its provision of long-term certainty for manufacturers and their demonstrated ability to produce low-GWP RACs with the required efficiencies. Exploiting the parallel transition away from high-GWP refrigerants under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol would provide manufacturing efficiencies and substantial savings opportunities.
        Cover page: Chinese policy leadership would cool global air conditioning impacts: Looking east
        • Book
        Bending the Curve: Climate Change Solutions Digital Textbook (2019)

        The Learning Companion to Bending the Curve: Climate Change Solutions can help all readers gain the most from this book. This resource includes questions for review and discussion which help connect ideas, understand key concepts, and to increase the ability of readers at all levels to effectively discuss and explain climate change solutions.

        The Learning Companion provides review questions that can be used to assess familiarity with key concepts, ensuring all readers are ready to apply what they’ve learned. These questions can also help instructors identify areas of learning that may require additional explanation. The Learning Companion also provides questions for discussion which can help facilitate both classroom and public discourse, and expanding each reader’s learning about climate change solutions

        We recognize the importance of public communication and education to help promote a broad culture of climate action. Using the questions in the Learning Companion can help you take action, and to collaborate with others as a learning community, focused on climate change solutions.

          Cover page: Learning Companion to Bending the Curve: Climate Change Solutions
          • Book
          • Peer Reviewed
          Bending the Curve: Climate Change Solutions Digital Textbook (2019)

          Climate change is an urgent problem. Because it is causing new weather extremes and fatal catastrophes, climate change is better termed climate disruption. Bending the curve to flatten the upward trajectory of pollution emissions responsible for climate disruption is essential in order to protect billions of people from this global threat. Education is a key part of the solution.

          This textbook book lays out ten solutions that together can bend the curve of climate warming below dangerous levels. These solutions fall into six categories: science, societal transformation, governance, economics, technology, and ecosystem management. Four themes emerge from the book:  

          * There is still time to bend the curve. The time to act was yesterday, but if proper actions are taken now, there is still time to avoid disastrous changes. We have to pull on three levers: The carbon lever to achieve zero net emissions of carbon dioxide before 2050; the short-lived climate pollutants lever to drastically reduce concentrations of other major climate pollutants; and the atmospheric carbon extraction lever to remove massive amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

          * Bending the curve will require interdisciplinary solutions. Climate change requires integrating approaches from the natural sciences, social sciences, and humanities, so this textbook—unlike most on climate change solutions—does just that, with chapters written by experts in climate science, social justice, economics, environmental policy, political science, energy technologies, ecology, and religion. Bending the curve also requires preservation and restoration of ecological systems.

          * Bending the curve requires a radical shift in attitude. This shift requires change in behavior, change in our attitudes towards each other, and change in our attitude towards nature. Climate justice has to be an integral part of the solution.

          * Technology, market mechanism and policy need to be a part of the solution. New market mechanisms and other policies are required to spur technological innovations and to scale clean technologies globally.

            Cover page: Bending the Curve: Climate Change SolutionsCreative Commons 'BY-NC-SA' version 4.0 license
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