Department of Earth System Science

The halocarbons (chloroflurocarbons, CFCs, and their replacement chemicals: the hydrochloroflurocarbons, HCFCs, and the hydrofluorocarbons, HFCs) are greenhouse gases. The atmospheric accumulation of these gases is expected to add to the global warming predicted for expected increases of CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, tropospheric ozone and H₂O. Over the next decades, production of CFCs is scheduled to be phased out, while emissions of their alternatives are expected to increase. A simple model is used to illustrate the methodology for determining the time variations of the radiative forcing and temperature changes attributable to the direct greenhouse effect from potential emissions of the halocarbons. Although there are uncertainties associated with the lifetimes of the greenhouse gases, CFCs and their substitutes, the future growth rates of these gases, and the parameters used to simulate the response of the Earth-climate system, the method serves to illustrate an important aspect of the greenhouse warming issue beyond what is provided by the various greenhouse warming indices. Our results show that for likely substitution scenarios, the warming due to halocarbons will correspond to 4–10% of the total expected greenhouse warming at the year 2100. However, uncontrolled growth of the substitutes could result in an eight-fold increase in halocarbon production and a doubling of the halocarbon contribution by 2100.