Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future (CEF) studied the role that efficient clean energy technologies can play in meeting the economic and environmental challenges for our future energy supply. The study describes a portfolio of policies that would motivate energy users and businesses to invest in innovative energy efficient technologies. On the basis of the portfolios, two policy scenarios have been developed, i.e. a moderate scenario and an advanced scenario. We focus on the industrial part of the CEF-study. The studied policies include a wide scope of activities, which are organized under the umbrella of voluntary industrial sector agreements. The policies for the policy scenarios have been modeled using the National Energy Modeling System (CEF-NEMS). Under the reference scenario industrial energy use would grow to 41 Quads in 2020, compared to 34.8 Quads in 1997, with an average improvement of the energy intensity by 1.1 percent per year. In the Moderate scenario the annual improvement is about 1.5 percent/year, leading to primary energy use of 37.8 Quads in 2020, resulting in 10 percent lower CO2 emissions by 2020 compared to the reference scenario. In the Advanced scenario the annual improvement increases to 1.8 percent per year, leading to primary energy use of 34.3 Quads in 2020, and 29 percent lower CO2 emissions. We report on the policies, assumptions and results for industry.