University of California International and Area Studies

Awarding Certified Emission Reductions to Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects under the Kyoto Protocol involves comparing the actual emissions of the project to a counterfactual “baseline” emissions level. The baseline of a project is intended to represent the emissions that would have occurred in the absence of the project. Accordingly, there is a high degree of uncertainty in determining CDM baselines. In the years since the emergence of the CDM, scientific and political debates have occurred about how best to cut through this uncertainty and arrive at the fixed, quantitative figures necessary for the quantification and commodification of greenhouse gas emissions. My research explores the decision-making process by which practical quantifying conventions are adopted in order to narrow the operational realm of uncertainty. It focuses on the role of scientists and the use of scientific rhetoric in the negotiation process and also explores risk and the perceptions of risk held by a range of important actors. This exploratory paper is intended to serve as a springboard for future work by providing a description of the nature of the uncertainty in CDM baselines, and by exploring the ramifications of decision-making in the face of this uncertainty. It concludes with a list of future questions that probe the ways in which different actors may be expected to maneuver within this uncertainty.