Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

This paper presents an overview of the modeling approach and highlights key findings of a California industrial energy efficiency potential study. In addition to providing estimates of technical and economic potential, the study examines achievable program potential under various program-funding scenarios. The focus is on electricity and natural gas savings for manufacturing in the service territories of California's investor-owned utilities (IOUs). The assessment is conducted by industry type and by end use. Both crosscutting technologies and industry-specific process measures are examined. Measure penetration into the marketplace is modeled as a function of customer awareness, measure cost effectiveness, and perceived market barriers. Data for the study comes from a variety of sources, including: utility billing records, the Energy Information Association (EIA) Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS), state-sponsored avoided cost studies, energy efficiency program filings, and technology savings and cost data developed through Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The study identifies 1,706 GWh and 47 Mth (million therms) per year of achievable potential over the next twelve years under recent levels of program expenditures, accounting for 5.2 percent of industrial electricity consumption and 1.3 percent of industrial natural gas consumption. These estimates grow to 2,748 GWh and 192 Mth per year if all cost-effective and achievable opportunities are pursued. Key industrial electricity end uses, in terms of energy savings potential, include compressed air and pumping systems that combine to account for about half of the total achievable potential estimates. For natural gas, savings are concentrated in the boiler and process heating end uses, accounting for over 99 percent to total achievable potential.