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Estimating the impact of a police education program on hepatitis C virus transmission and disease burden among people who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico: A dynamic modeling analysis
Published Web Location
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/add.16203No data is associated with this publication.
Abstract
Background and aims
Criminalization of drug use and punitive policing are key structural drivers of hepatitis C virus (HCV) risk among people who inject drugs (PWID). A police education program (Proyecto Escudo) delivering training on occupational safety together with drug law content was implemented between 2015 and 2016 in Tijuana, Mexico, to underpin drug law reform implementation. We used data from a longitudinal cohort of PWID in Tijuana to inform epidemic modeling and assess the long-term impact of Escudo on HCV transmission and burden among PWID in Tijuana.Methods
We developed a dynamic, compartmental model of HCV transmission and incarceration among PWID and tracked liver disease progression among current and former PWID. The model was calibrated to data from Tijuana, Mexico, with 90% HCV seroprevalence. We used segmented regression analysis to estimate impact of Escudo on recent incarceration among an observational cohort of PWID. By simulating the observed incarceration trends, we estimated the potential impact of the implemented (2-year reduction in incarceration) and an extended (10-year reduction in incarceration) police education program over a 50-year follow-up (2016-2066) on HCV outcomes (incidence, cirrhosis, HCV-related deaths and disability adjusted life-years averted) compared with no intervention.Results
Over the 2-year follow-up, Proyecto Escudo reduced HCV incidence among PWID from 21.5 per 100 person years (/100py) (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 15.3-29.7/100py) in 2016 to 21.1/100py (UI = 15.0-29.1/100py) in 2018. If continued for 10 years, Escudo could reduce HCV incidence to 20.0/100py (14.0-27.8/100py) by 2026 and avert 186 (32-389) new infections, 76 (UI = 12-160) cases of cirrhosis and 32 (5-73) deaths per 10 000 PWID compared with no intervention over a 50-year time horizon.Conclusions
In Tijuana, Mexico, implementation of a police education program delivering training on occupational safety and drug law content appears to have reduced hepatitis C virus incidence among people who inject drugs.Many UC-authored scholarly publications are freely available on this site because of the UC's open access policies. Let us know how this access is important for you.