Department of Economics

The forward-bias puzzle is probably the most important puzzle in international finance. But there is a simple solution. Covered interest parity implies that the forward-bias puzzle is the result of two omitted variables: (1) the future change in the forward exchange rate and (2) the future interest rate differential. As Table 3 shows, at least for my data, the downward bias produced by those two omitted variables completely explains the forward-bias puzzle. Covered interest parity also solves three related puzzles.