Department of Earth System Science

Our goal was to construct a simple, highly aggregated model, driven by easily available data sets, that accurately predicted terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP; carboxylation plus oxygenation) in diverse environments and ecosystems. Our starting point was a fine-scale, multilayer model of half-hourly canopy processes that has been parametrized for Harvard Forest, Massachusetts. Over varied growing season conditions, this fine-scale model predicted hourly carbon and latent energy fluxes that were in good agreement with data from eddy covariance studies. Using an heuristic process, we derived a simple aggregated set of equations operating on cumulative or average values of the most sensitive driving variables (leaf area index, mean foliar N concentration, canopy height, average daily temperature and temperature range, atmospheric transmittance, latitude, day of year, atmospheric CO₂ concentration, and an index of soil moisture). We calibrated the aggregated model to provide estimates of GPP similar to those of the fine-scale model across a wide range of these driving variables. Our calibration across this broad range of conditions captured 96% of fine-scale model behavior, but was computationally many orders of magnitude faster. We then tested the assumptions we had made in generating the aggregated model by applying it in different ecosystems. Using the same parameter values derived for Harvard Forest, the aggregated model made sound predictions of GPP for wet-sedge tundra in the Arctic under a variety of experimental manipulations, and also for a range of forest types across the OTTER (Oregon Transect Ecosystem Research) transect in Oregon, running from coastal Sitka spruce to high-plateau mountain juniper.