UCLA Civil and Environmental Engineering

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) are performed for routine applications using source models and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) recommended by a government agency (e.g., US Geological Survey) or an expert panel (e.g., SHARE project). For important projects, site-specific PSHA involves critical analysis of GMPEs and sources for the application region. We adopt the latter approach for a dam site in Calabria (southern Italy), a high seismic hazard region. Following SHARE convention, we consider faults sources, background zones, and area sources. We identify several problems with assigned maximum magnitudes in the SHARE model for fault and in-slab subduction sources. We add two sources not present in some prior inventories – the crustal Lakes fault and the Calabrian arc subduction interface. Following procedures developed for the Global Earthquake Model, we select GMPEs that are much better constrained in the hazard-controlling range of magnitudes and distances than those typically used in prior Italian applications. Short-period spectral accelerations at the 2475 year return period exceed those from prior SHARE studies by about 10-15%. Despite the site being located in a region with finite faults capable of generating large events, the 2475-year hazard is dominated by source zones that allow for earthquakes directly beneath the site.