UCSF

Rationale & objective

Novel urinary biomarkers have enabled earlier detection of kidney tubular damage, but their prognostic value for adverse cardiovascular outcomes is uncertain. We hypothesized that tubular damage, measured by urine α₁-microglobulin (A1M), amino-terminal propeptide of type III procollagen (PIIINP), and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), would be associated with higher risks for cardiovascular events and mortality among elders.

Study design

Case-cohort study.

Setting & participants

This study included a randomly selected subcohort (n=502), cardiovascular disease (CVD) cases (n=245), and heart failure cases (n=220) from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study.

Predictors

Baseline urine A1M, PIIINP, and NGAL concentrations.

Outcomes

Incident CVD, heart failure, and all-cause mortality.

Analytical approach

Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate biomarker associations with each outcome.

Results

At baseline, mean age was 74 years and estimated glomerular filtration rate was 73mL/min/1.73m². After adjustment for demographics, estimated glomerular filtration rate, albumin-creatinine ratio, and other cardiovascular risk factors, each doubling in biomarker concentration was associated with the following adjusted HRs for CVD: A1M, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.16-1.96); PIIINP, 1.21 (95% CI, 1.00-1.46); and NGAL, 1.12 (95% CI, 1.05-1.20). There were 248 deaths in the subcohort during a median follow-up of 12.4 years. Adjusted associations of each biomarker (HR per doubling) with all-cause mortality were: A1M, 1.29 (95% CI, 1.10-1.51); PIIINP, 1.05 (95%, 0.94-1.18); and NGAL, 1.07 (95% CI, 1.02-1.12). Biomarker concentrations did not have statistically significant associations with heart failure after multivariable adjustment.

Limitations

Urine biomarkers were measured at a single time point; no validation cohort available.

Conclusions

Kidney tubular damage is an independent risk factor for CVD and death among elders. Future studies should investigate mechanisms by which kidney tubular damage may adversely affect cardiovascular risk.