California Partners for Advanced Transportation Technology

This paper shows how the evolution of multicommodity traffic flows over complex networks can be predicted over time, based on a simple macroscopic computer representation of traffic flow that is consistent with the kinematic wave theory under all traffic conditions. After a brief review of the basic model for one link, the paper describes how three-legged junctions can be modeled. It then introduces a numerical procedure for networks, assuming that a time-varying origin-destination table is given and that the proportion of turns at every junction is known. These assumptions are reasonable for numerical analysis of disaster evacuation plans. The results are then extended to the case where, instead of the turning proportions, the best routes to each destination from every junction are known at all times.