2024-03-28T12:57:36Zhttps://escholarship.org/oaioai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5hg0n6jv2018-12-18T21:17:27Zqt5hg0n6jvHispanic Names, Acculturation, and HealthEdwards, Ryan DGoldstein, Joshua R2018-09-05The Hispanic Health Paradox is that despite their disadvantaged socioeconomic status, Hispanics in the U.S. experience mortality outcomes that are similar to those of non-Hispanic whites. Why being Hispanic is protective remains an active subject of research. In this paper, we explore how a novel, continuous metric of Hispanic identity based on an individual’s first name helps us better understand health among Hispanics in the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a rich dataset of Americans aged 50 and older. We document and characterize the Hispanic Health Paradox in mortality and health status in the HRS, and we examine the information contained within first names. We uncover a striking asymmetry in how the Hispanicity of the first name is associated with health outcomes and to a lesser extent with health inputs. For foreign-born Hispanics, a more Hispanic first name often signals healthier outcomes; but for native-born Hispanics, the reverse is true. The evidence is consistent with a story of an immigrant health advantage and differential assimilation among the second and later generations in which the more assimilated, with less distinctively Hispanic names, are healthier. But disadvantages among native Hispanics with more Hispanic names do not appear to be attributable to drinking,smoking, or exercise.ParadoxBehaviorInequalityImmigrationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5hg0n6jvarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0q21g0b82018-06-10T04:29:29Zqt0q21g0b8A new look at immigration and employment in the U.S. since 2005Edwards, Ryan D.Liu, Mao-Mei2018-06-04The foreign-born share of the U.S. population has been gradually rising in recent decades and is approaching its historic maximum. Areas that have not traditionally received immigrants have experienced greater increases in the foreign-born share than have other areas with persistently high levels of immigration. This raises clear questions about the macroeconomic impacts of immigration on native workers. Economic theory suggests that immigration shifts out labor supply, reducing wages for natives in the short run because labor demand is downward sloping, and raising unemployment among natives if wages do not fall. Although theoretically sound and widely cited in the U.S. immigration debate, this static view has received mixed support in the scientific literature. Researchers continue to debate whether influxes of immigrants like the Mariel Boatlift of 1980 reduced wages or employment among native workers in Miami, with a body of empirical evidence that often appears ambiguous.We contribute to this debate by comparing recent trends in the employment rates of native workers in immigrant-receiving geographical areas to recent trends in other areas. We utilize the rich geographic resolution offered by the annual U.S. American Community Survey, which samples roughly 1 percent of the entire U.S. population and allows us to examine trends in public data within areas as small as 80,000 residents. The time period covered by the ACS, 2005-2016, provides us a unique look at employment outcomes during a period of much economic turbulence and differential immigration patterns across states and regions.In contrast to the implication of the static model, we find that rising foreign-born shares of thelocal labor force are robustly associated with increases in native employment rates over 2005-2016. Our model predicts each percentage-point increase in the foreign-born share isassociated with an increase in the native employment rate of 0.075 percentage point. Because the variation in the foreign-born share is large (SD = 0.15) relative to the variation in the native employment rate (SD = 0.04), our model implies that up to one quarter of the cross-sectional variation in native employment could be accounted for by variation in the foreign-born share ofthe labor force. By contrast, average annual changes in native employment and the foreign-born share are both about 0.1 percent, implying that a much smaller share of the typical annual change in native employment, only about 5 to 7 percent, might be attributable to changes inthe foreign-born share of the labor force.These results suggest that during the first two decades of the 21st century, the presence of foreign-born workers was not detrimental to the employment prospects of native workers and may have been a net benefit. Whether immigrant labor actually raises the employment of natives on its own or is a marker of third factors that are causal is less clear and remains the subject of future investigations.immigrationemploymentAmerican Community Survey (ACS)application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0q21g0b8articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6tg041kd2017-10-04T20:27:16Zqt6tg041kdAverage age at death in infancy and infant mortality level: reconsidering the Coale-Demeny formulas at current levels of low mortality.Andreev, Evgeny MKinkade, W. Ward2015-02-10The longterm historical decline in infant mortality has been accompanied by increasing concentration of infant deaths at the earliest stages of infancy. The influence of prenatal and neonatal conditions has become increasingly dominant relative to postnatal conditions as external causes of death such as infectious disease have been diminished. In the mid-1960s Coale and Demeny developed formulas describing the dependency of the average age of death in infancy on the level of infant mortality from data obtained up to that time.Almost at the same time as Coale and Demeny’s analysis, as shown in this paper, in the more developed countries a steady rise in average age of infant death began. This paper demonstrates this phenomenon with several different data sources, including the linked individual birth and infant death datasets available from the US National Center for Health Statistics and the Human Mortality Database. A possible explanation for the increase in average age of death in infancy is proposed, and modifications of the Coale-Demeny formulas for practical application to contemporary low levels of mortality are offered.infant mortalityCoale-Demeny formulasaverage age at death in infancyconcentration of infant deathsconcentration of infant deaths in the neonatal periodapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6tg041kdarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9480n1772011-07-02T14:50:50Zqt9480n177The Fiscal Impact of Population Aging in the US: Assessing the UncertaintiesLee, RonaldEdwards, Ryan2002-11-05Population aging, accelerating as the baby boom generations age, will have important fiscal consequences because expenditures on Social Security, Medicare, and institutional Medicaid make up more than a third of the Federal budget. However, the projected fiscal pressures are far in the future, and long-term projections are very unreliable. Our analysis here has two goals: to examine the fiscal impact of population aging, and to do this in a probabilistic setting. We find that the old age dependency ratio is virtually certain to rise by more than 50% through the 2030s, and will probably continue to increase after 2050, possibly by a great deal. Under current program structures, population aging would be virtually certain to increase the costliness of Federal programs as a share of GDP by 35% (±2%) by the 2030s, and by 60% (±15%) in the second half of the century. We project Federal expenditures (excluding interest payments and pre-funded programs) to rise from 16% of GDP in 2000 to 30% in 2075, almost doubling, while State and Local expenditures rise only modestly relative to GDP. Almost all of this increase is for programs going primarily to the elderly, which rise from 8% of GDP in 1999 to 21% of GDP in 2075, due mainly to costs of health care for the elderly, with pensions a distant second. We expect that governments will respond to these aging-induced cost changes by altering program structures, so that these conditional projections will not be realized. Looking Social Security, we find that raising the payroll tax rate by 1.89% would have relatively little effect on the probabilities of early exhaustion, raising the 2.5% bound of exhaustion date from 2024 to 2036, but raising the median date of exhaustion from 2036 to 2070, and with a 55% chance of insolvency within the 75 year horizon. Looking at Medicare, which now costs 2.2% of GDP, we project a median share in 2075 of 11%, five times as great, with a 95% probability interval at 5% to 26% of GDP. Thus there is a 97.5% chance that the ratio will at least double, and a 2.5% chance that it will increase at least twelve-fold. Although the future is highly uncertain in many respects, unforeseen demographic or economic change will almost certainly not avert the long run fiscal crunch. Changing demographic realities will require some combination of substantial tax increases or substantial benefit cuts, or other forms of restructuring.savingretirementforecastingfiscalsocial securitymedicareeconomic demographyagingeconomicsdemographyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9480n177articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt54h021wj2011-07-02T14:09:56Zqt54h021wjPredicting Human LongevityLee, Ronald2001-06-01forecastingmortalityagingdemographyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/54h021wjarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3mw1m56d2011-07-02T14:09:51Zqt3mw1m56dStochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust FundLee, RonaldAnderson, MichaelTuljapurkar, Shripad2003-01-31We present stochastic forecasts of the Social Security trust fund by modeling key demographic and economic variables as historical time series, and using the fitted models to generate computer simulations of future fund performance. We evaluate several plans for achieving long-term solvency by raising the normal retirement age (NRA), increasing taxes, or investing some portion of the fund in the stock market.Stochastic population trajectories by age and sex are generated using the Lee-Carter and Lee- Tuljapurkar mortality and fertility models. Interest rates, wage growth and equities returns are modeled as vector autoregressive processes. With the exception of mortality, central tendencies are constrained to the Intermediate assumptions of the 2002 Trustees Report. Combining population forecasts with forecasted per-capita tax and benefit profiles by age and sex, we obtain inflows to and outflows from the fund over time, resulting in stochastic fund trajectories and distributions.Under current legislation, we estimate the chance of insolvency by 2038 to be 50%, although the expected fund balance stays positive until 2041. An immediate 2% increase in the payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 14.4% sustains a positive expected fund balance until 2078, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2064. Investing 60% of the fund in the S&P 500 by 2015 keeps the expected fund balance positive until 2060, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2042. An increase in the NRA to age 69 by 2024 keeps the expected fund balance positive until 2047, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2041. A combination of raising the payroll tax to 13.4%, increasing the NRA to 69 by 2024, and investing 25% of the fund in equities by 2015 keeps the expected fund balance positive past 2101 with a 50% chance of solvency through 2077.social securityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3mw1m56darticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5mn0r8gk2011-07-02T14:09:42Zqt5mn0r8gkQuantifying Our Ignorance: Stochastic Forecasts of Population and Public BudgetsLee, Ronald2004-02-09forecastingfiscaleconomic demographyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5mn0r8gkarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt97j2t2sz2011-07-02T14:09:38Zqt97j2t2szDemographic Change, Welfare, and Intergenerational Transfers: A Global OverviewLee, Ronald2003-03-13demographyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/97j2t2szarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3sd9m7d52011-07-02T14:09:31Zqt3sd9m7d5Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy TrendsLee, Ronald2003-03-25forecastingmortalityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3sd9m7d5articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7n02r2682011-07-02T14:09:25Zqt7n02r268Population Forecasting for Fiscal Planning: Issues and InnovationsLee, Ronald D.Tuljapurkar, Shripad2000-01-01forecastingfiscalsocial securityeconomic demographyeconomicsdemographyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7n02r268articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5vw5q3h92011-07-02T09:18:32Zqt5vw5q3h9Why Have Health Expenditures as a Share of GDP Risen So Much?Jones, Charles I.2003-07-24Aggregate health expenditures as a share of GDP have risen in the United States from about 5 percent in 1960 to nearly 14 percent in recent years. Why? This paper explores a simple explanation based on technological progress. Technological advances allow diseases to be cured today, at a cost, that could not be cured at any price in the past. When this technological progress is combined with a Medicare-like transfer program to pay the health expenses of the elderly, the model is able to reproduce the basic facts of recent U.S. experience, including the large increase in the health expenditure share, a rise in life expectancy, and an increase in the size of health-related transfer payments as a share of GDP.economic demographyeconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5vw5q3h9articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1j01q2p52011-07-02T08:18:36Zqt1j01q2p5The Fiscal Impacts of Population ChangeLee, Ronaldedwards, ryan2001-07-02savingretirementforecastingfiscalsocial securitymedicareeconomic demographyeconomicsdemographyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1j01q2p5articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9x32c1kq2011-07-01T07:20:16Zqt9x32c1kqSPECIAL REPORT: The Growth and Aging of California's Population: Demographic and Fiscal Projections, Characteristics and Service NeedsLee, RonaldMiller, TimothyEdwards, Ryan D2003-01-01This report is part of a state-commissioned project undertaken after California enacted Senate Bill 910 (Vasconcellos, Statutes of 1999, Chapter 948), mandating the Secretary of Health and Human Services to develop a plan to address the impending demographic, economic, and social changes triggered by the state s aging and increasingly diverse population. The University of California was asked to conduct the data analyses and provide background information needed to formulate this plan. CPRC has been coordinating this effort over the past three years, drawing on research experts from UC and other institutions. A faculty working group, chaired by Professor Andrew Scharlach (School of Social Welfare, Berkeley), helped guide the project. The authors wish to acknowledge Andrew Scharlach s substantial contributions to the substance and structure of this report, as well as his many valuable editorial suggestions at all stages of the writing. The authors of this report were charged with developing a composite demographic profile of Californians that would provide (1) a snapshot of aging demographics; (2) a summary of key variables, projections, and their degree of certainty; and (3) an estimation of service needs of elderly Californians in the context of the state budget and changing demographics. A forthcoming report by other authors (Planning for a Comprehensive Database on Aging Californians) assesses data the state already collects and where the gaps are, what questions the state needs to ask to project needs for policy planning purposes, and how the questions can be answered by enhancing and linking data that currently exist and selectively collecting new data.agingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9x32c1kqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9cc4263w2011-03-19T02:03:58Zqt9cc4263wReflections on Inverse Projection: Its Origins, Development, Extensions, and Relation to ForecastingLee, Ronald2003-06-05forecastingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9cc4263warticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7vd329tb2011-03-19T01:21:06Zqt7vd329tbA Modeling Approach for Estimating Total Mortality for Italy During the First and Second World WarsJdanov, Dmitri AGlei, D AJasilionis, Domantas2008-09-16Estimates based on official vital statistics underestimate mortality for Italy during the World Wars. This paper uses a modeling strategy to estimate mortality for Italy based on data from both civilian and military authorities. The model uses the same principles as the one used to reconstruct war losses for England/Wales (Jdanov et al. 2005) and can be adapted to other countries even when we lack detailed knowledge of historical events during wartime. The results produce much lower estimates of life expectancy at birth for males during wartime than the previously published estimates that exclude military deaths. For example, in 1917, the former was nearly 15 years lower than the latter (31.0 versus 45.8 years).mortalityagingdemographyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7vd329tbarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt76b3712p2011-03-19T01:02:10Zqt76b3712pReflections on Inverse Projection: Its Origins, Development, Extensions, and Relation to ForecastingLee, Ronald2003-06-05forecastingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/76b3712particleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5x88q0xm2011-03-19T00:20:50Zqt5x88q0xmTendencias de Mortalidad en la Población EspañolaGomez Redondo, RosaBoe, Carl2004-05-19mortalityagingdemographyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5x88q0xmarticle