2024-03-29T11:51:58Zhttps://escholarship.org/oaioai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0fv1v1c12024-03-27T19:15:14Zqt0fv1v1c1A synthesis of pathways linking diet, metabolic risk and cardiovascular disease: a framework to guide further research and approaches to evidence-based practice.Lima do Vale, Marjorie RafaelaBuckner, LukeMitrofan, Claudia GabrielaTramontt, Claudia RaulinoKargbo, Sento KaiKhalid, AliAshraf, SammyiaMouti, SaadDai, XiaowuUnwin, DavidBohn, JeffreyGoldberg, LisaGolubic, RajnaRay, Sumantra2023-12-01Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common non-communicable disease occurring globally. Although previous literature has provided useful insights into the important role that diet plays in CVD prevention and treatment, understanding the causal role of diets is a difficult task considering inherent and introduced weaknesses of observational (e.g. not properly addressing confounders and mediators) and experimental research designs (e.g. not appropriate or well designed). In this narrative review, we organised current evidence linking diet, as well as conventional and emerging physiological risk factors, with CVD risk, incidence and mortality in a series of diagrams. The diagrams presented can aid causal inference studies as they provide a visual representation of the types of studies underlying the associations between potential risk markers/factors for CVD. This may facilitate the selection of variables to be considered and the creation of analytical models. Evidence depicted in the diagrams was systematically collected from studies included in the British Nutrition Task Force report on diet and CVD and database searches, including Medline and Embase. Although several markers and disorders linked to conventional and emerging risk factors for CVD were identified, the causal link between many remains unknown. There is a need to address the multifactorial nature of CVD and the complex interplay between conventional and emerging risk factors with natural and built environments, while bringing the life course into the spotlight.Biomedical and Clinical SciencesNutrition and DieteticsNutritionPreventionHeart DiseaseCardiovascular2.3 Psychologicalsocial and economic factorsAetiologyGeneric health relevanceGood Health and Well BeingHumansCardiovascular DiseasesDietRisk FactorsNutritional StatusEvidence-Based PracticeCausalityCardiovascular diseaseReviewRisk factorsNutritional statusBiological SciencesAgricultural and Veterinary SciencesMedical and Health SciencesNutrition & DieteticsNutrition and dieteticsapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0fv1v1c1articleNutrition Research Reviews, vol 36, iss 2232 - 258oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5vw9g5tj2024-03-21T19:13:49Zqt5vw9g5tjSocial preferences of future physiciansLi, JingDow, William HKariv, Shachar2017-11-28We measure the social preferences of a sample of US medical students and compare their preferences with those of the general population sampled in the American Life Panel (ALP). We also compare the medical students with a subsample of highly educated, wealthy ALP subjects as well as elite law school students and undergraduate students. We further associate the heterogeneity in social preferences within medical students to the tier ranking of their medical schools and their expected specialty choice. Our experimental design allows us to rigorously distinguish altruism from preferences regarding equality-efficiency tradeoffs and accurately measure both at the individual level rather than pooling data or assuming homogeneity across subjects. This is particularly informative, because the subjects in our sample display widely heterogeneous social preferences in terms of both their altruism and equality-efficiency tradeoffs. We find that medical students are substantially less altruistic and more efficiency focused than the average American. Furthermore, medical students attending the top-ranked medical schools are less altruistic than those attending lower-ranked schools. We further show that the social preferences of those attending top-ranked medical schools are statistically indistinguishable from the preferences of a sample of elite law school students. The key limitation of this study is that our experimental measures of social preferences have not yet been externally validated against actual physician practice behaviors. Pending this future research, we probed the predictive validity of our experimental measures of social preferences by showing that the medical students choosing higher-paying medical specialties are less altruistic than those choosing lower-paying specialties.EconomicsApplied EconomicsEconomic TheoryBasic Behavioral and Social ScienceBehavioral and Social ScienceAdolescentAltruismChoice BehaviorFemaleHumansLawyersMaleRegression AnalysisSchoolsMedicalSocial ClassSocial PerceptionStudentsStudentsMedicalUnited StatesYoung Adultsocial preferencesaltruismfair-mindednessequality-efficiency tradeoffrationalityequality–efficiency tradeoffapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5vw9g5tjarticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol 114, iss 48e10291 - e10300oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt15f554dd2024-03-20T18:41:54Zqt15f554ddSpillover effects on health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic reviewBenjamin-Chung, JadeAbedin, JaynalBerger, DavidClark, AshleyJimenez, VeronicaKonagaya, EugeneTran, DianaArnold, Benjamin FHubbard, Alan ELuby, Stephen PMiguel, EdwardColford, John M2017-08-01BackgroundMany interventions delivered to improve health may benefit not only direct recipients but also people in close physical or social proximity. Our objective was to review all published literature about the spillover effects of interventions on health outcomes in low-middle income countries and to identify methods used in estimating these effects.MethodsWe searched 19 electronic databases for articles published before 2014 and hand-searched titles from 2010 to 2013 in five relevant journals. We adapted the Cochrane Collaboration's quality grading tool for spillover estimation and rated the quality of evidence.ResultsA total of 54 studies met inclusion criteria. We found a wide range of terminology used to describe spillovers, a lack of standardization among spillover methods and poor reporting of spillovers in many studies. We identified three primary mechanisms of spillovers: reduced disease transmission, social proximity and substitution of resources within households. We found the strongest evidence for spillovers through reduced disease transmission, particularly vaccines and mass drug administration. In general, the proportion of a population receiving an intervention was associated with improved health. Most studies were of moderate or low quality. We found evidence of publication bias for certain spillover estimates but not for total or direct effects. To facilitate improved reporting and standardization in future studies, we developed a reporting checklist adapted from the CONSORT framework specific to reporting spillover effects.ConclusionsWe found the strongest evidence for spillovers from vaccines and mass drug administration to control infectious disease. There was little high quality evidence of spillovers for other interventions.PreventionGood Health and Well BeingDeveloping CountriesDisease TransmissionInfectiousHealth PromotionHumansSocial SupportSocioeconomic FactorsVaccinationSpillover effectsindirect effectsherd effectsherd immunitydiffusionexternalitiesinterferenceSpillover effectsindirect effectsherd effectsherd
immunitydiffusionexternalitiesinterferenceStatisticsPublic Health and Health ServicesEpidemiologyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/15f554ddarticleInternational Journal of Epidemiology, vol 46, iss 41251 - 1276oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt11m7r8xf2024-03-20T18:40:11Zqt11m7r8xfSpillover effects on health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.Benjamin-Chung, JadeAbedin, JaynalBerger, DavidClark, AshleyJimenez, VeronicaKonagaya, EugeneTran, DianaArnold, Benjamin FHubbard, Alan ELuby, Stephen PMiguel, EdwardColford, John M2019-08-01The following errors were discovered in this article: The third row of Figure 1 was mislabelled; the result for the row for Ali et al., 2013 in Table 1 was mislabelled; in Table 3, the rows for Contreras and Maitra, for Avitabile 2012 and for German et al had errors; two studies were omitted from Figure 3B; the values for % cholera vaccine coverage for Emch et al., 2009 in Supplement 7, Figure 2 were incorrect; and "quality of evidence" values for Ali et al., 2013 and for Cooper and Fitch 1983 were incorrect.StatisticsPublic Health and Health ServicesEpidemiologyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/11m7r8xfarticleInternational journal of epidemiology, vol 48, iss 41387oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4mz932j62024-01-18T04:49:50Zqt4mz932j6Subjective complexity under uncertaintyValenzuela-Stookey, Quitzé2023-11-01EconomicsApplied EconomicsEconomic TheoryDrug Abuse (NIDA only)Substance MisuseComplexityUncertaintyBounded rationalityAmbiguityMathematical SciencesStudies in Human SocietyHuman societyMathematical sciencesapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4mz932j6articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7909h8g52024-01-04T22:09:32Zqt7909h8g5Teacher Quality in Educational Production: Tracking, Decay, and Student Achievement*Rothstein, Jesse2010-02-01Growing concerns over the inadequate achievement of U.S. students have led to proposals to reward good teachers and penalize (or fire) bad ones. The leading method for assessing teacher quality is "value added" modeling (VAM), which decomposes students' test scores into components attributed to student heterogeneity and to teacher quality. Implicit in the VAM approach are strong assumptions about the nature of the educational production function and the assignment of students to classrooms. In this paper, I develop falsification tests for three widely used VAM specifications, based on the idea that future teachers cannot influence students' past achievement. In data from North Carolina, each of the VAMs' exclusion restrictions is dramatically violated. In particular, these models indicate large "effects" of fifth grade teachers on fourth grade test score gains. I also find that conventional measures of individual teachers' value added fade out very quickly and are at best weakly related to long-run effects. I discuss implications for the use of VAMs as personnel tools. © 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.EconomicsApplied EconomicsEconometricsEconomic TheoryClinical ResearchQuality EducationI21J24J33Applied economicsEconomic theorypubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7909h8g5articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4m6005f02023-12-12T23:42:02Zqt4m6005f0Destructive Behavior, Judgment, and Economic Decision-Making Under Thermal StressAlmås, IngvildAuffhammer, MaxBold, TessaBolliger, IanDembo, AlumaHsiang, SolomonKitamura, ShuheiMiguel, EdwardPickmans, Robert2019-04-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4m6005f0articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7mw9n4f52023-12-11T15:52:25Zqt7mw9n4f5Review of Learning About TeachingRothstein, J2011-01-13publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7mw9n4f5articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1kk1q3k32023-12-11T15:52:20Zqt1kk1q3k3Review of Two Culminating Reports from the MET ProjectRothstein, JMathis, W2013-01-01publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1kk1q3k3articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5rz195zd2023-12-11T15:52:16Zqt5rz195zdRevisiting the Impacts of TeachersRothstein, J2017-01-01TeachersEconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and ServicesCommercemanagementtourism and servicespubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5rz195zdarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8w74088z2023-12-11T15:52:11Zqt8w74088zSelection Bias in College Admissions Test ScoresRothstein, J2009-01-01Test ScoresApplied EconomicsEconomicsApplied economicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8w74088zarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5923m4w42023-12-11T15:52:07Zqt5923m4w4Are Mixed Neighborhoods Always Unstable? Two-Sided and One-Sided TippingCard, DavidMas, AlexandreRothstein, Jesse2008-03-01publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5923m4w4articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3qr8t8032023-12-11T15:52:02Zqt3qr8t803The Measurement of Student Ability in Modern Assesmsent SystemsRothstein, JJacob, B2017-01-18Student AbilitypubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3qr8t803articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4hg7v6pd2023-12-11T00:28:56Zqt4hg7v6pdIntellectual Property for Economic Development: Issues and Policy ImplicationsHall, BHAhn, SHALL, BHLee, K2015-11-17Collection of articles from a conference at the Korean Development Institute on IP and economic developmenteconomic developmentpatentstechnology transferCC-BY-NC-SAeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4hg7v6pdmonographoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt46d3765f2023-11-13T23:10:15Zqt46d3765fThe Illusion of SustainabilityKremer, MichaelMiguel, Edward2023-11-13sustainable developmenteconomic developmentforeign aidapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/46d3765farticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt32m4z70c2023-11-13T23:08:29Zqt32m4z70cThe Value of Democracy: Evidence from Road Building in KenyaBurgess, RobinJedwab, RemiMiguel, EdwardMorjaria, AmeetPadró i Miquel, Gerard2013-09-01application/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/32m4z70carticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2466n61j2023-11-13T23:06:07Zqt2466n61jTransportation Choices and the Value of Statistical LifeLeón-Ciliotta, GianmarcoMiguel, Edward2013-10-01application/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2466n61jarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0wt4q2q82023-11-13T23:03:36Zqt0wt4q2q8Promoting Transparency in Social Science ResearchMiguel, ECamerer, CCasey, KCohen, JEsterling, KMGerber, AGlennerster, RGreen, DPHumphreys, MImbens, GLaitin, DMadon, TNelson, LNosek, BAPetersen, MSedlmayr, RSimmons, JPSimonsohn, UVan der Laan, M2014-01-03Social scientists should adopt higher transparency standards to improve the quality and credibility of research.Policy and AdministrationHuman SocietyClinical ResearchDisclosureHumansResearchSocial SciencesGeneral Science & Technologyapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0wt4q2q8articleScience, vol 343, iss 616630 - 31oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt027604632023-11-13T22:59:27Zqt02760463Commentary: Deworming externalities and schooling impacts in Kenya: a comment on Aiken et al. (2015) and Davey et al. (2015)Hicks, Joan HamoryKremer, MichaelMiguel, Edward2015-10-01EpidemiologyPublic HealthHealth SciencesStatisticsMathematical SciencesGood Health and Well BeingHumansKenyaPublic Health and Health ServicesPublic healthapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/02760463articleInternational Journal of Epidemiology, vol 44, iss 51593 - 1596oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3n86c49k2023-11-13T22:55:44Zqt3n86c49kElectrification for “Under Grid” households in Rural KenyaLee, KennethBrewer, EricChristiano, CarsonMeyo, FrancisMiguel, EdwardPodolsky, MatthewRosa, JavierWolfram, Catherine2016-06-01In Sub-Saharan Africa, 600 million people live without electricity. Despite ambitions of governments and donors to invest in rural electrification, decisions about how to extend electricity access are being made in the absence of rigorous evidence. In this paper, we present high-resolution spatial data on electrification rates in rural Kenya in order to quantify and visualize energy poverty in a novel way. Using our dataset of 20,000 geo-tagged structures in Western Kenya, we provide descriptive evidence that electrification rates remain very low despite significant investments in nearby grid infrastructure. This pattern holds across time and for both poor and relatively well-off households and businesses. We argue that if governments wish to leverage existing infrastructure and economies of scale, subsidies and new approaches to financing connections are necessary.Development StudiesHuman SocietyAffordable and Clean Energyapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3n86c49karticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt19k9166k2023-11-13T22:53:19Zqt19k9166kCommentary: Assessing long-run deworming impacts on education and economic outcomes: a comment on Jullien, Sinclair and Garner (2016)Baird, SarahHicks, Joan HamoryKremer, MichaelMiguel, Edward2016-12-01EpidemiologyPublic HealthHealth SciencesStatisticsMathematical SciencesPublic Health and Health ServicesPublic healthapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/19k9166karticleInternational Journal of Epidemiology, vol 45, iss 62153 - 2156oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2kk9b9tt2023-11-13T22:49:13Zqt2kk9b9ttThe Illusion of Stable Preferences Over Major Life DecisionsMueller, MaximilianHicks, Joan HamoryJohnson-Hanks, JenniferMiguel, Edward2019-05-01application/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2kk9b9ttarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7fc7s8cd2023-11-13T22:44:25Zqt7fc7s8cdEvidence on Research Transparency in EconomicsMiguel, Edward2021-08-01A decade ago, the term “research transparency” was not on economists' radar screen, but in a few short years a scholarly movement has emerged to bring new open science practices, tools and norms into the mainstream of our discipline. The goal of this article is to lay out the evidence on the adoption of these approaches – in three specific areas: open data, pre-registration and pre-analysis plans, and journal policies – and, more tentatively, begin to assess their impacts on the quality and credibility of economics research. The evidence to date indicates that economics (and related quantitative social science fields) are in a period of rapid transition toward new transparency-enhancing norms. While solid data on the benefits of these practices in economics is still limited, in part due to their relatively recent adoption, there is growing reason to believe that critics' worst fears regarding onerous adoption costs have not been realized. Finally, the article presents a set of frontier questions and potential innovations.EconomicsApplied EconomicsClinical ResearchBehavioral and Social ScienceApplied economicsEconometricsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7fc7s8cdarticleJournal of Economic Perspectives, vol 35, iss 3193 - 214oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0191q2qs2023-11-13T22:42:11Zqt0191q2qsThe Economics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poor CountriesMiguel, EdwardMobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq2022-08-12The COVID-19 pandemic has upended health and living standards around the world. This article provides an interim overview of these effects, with a particular focus on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Economists have explained how the pandemic is likely to have different consequences for LMICs and demands distinct policy responses compared to those of rich countries. We survey the rapidly expanding body of empirical research that documents the pandemic's many adverse economic and noneconomic effects in terms of living standards, education, health, and gender equality, which appear to be unprecedented in scope and scale. We also review research on successful and failed policy responses, including the failure to ensure widespread vaccine coverage in many LMICs, which is needed to end the pandemic. We close with a discussion of implications for public policy in LMICs and for the institutions of international governance, given the likelihood of future pandemics and other major shocks (e.g., climate).EconomicsApplied EconomicsEconomic TheoryPreventionGeneric health relevanceCOVID-19pandemicseconomic developmentpublic healthlow- and middle-income countriesLMICsApplied economicsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0191q2qsarticleAnnual Review of Economics, vol 14, iss 1253 - 285oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8zk6q8q12023-11-13T22:33:11Zqt8zk6q8q1Corrigendum to “The long-run impact of bombing Vietnam” [J. Dev. Econ. 96 (2011) 1–15/1]Miguel, EdwardRoland, Gérard2023-09-01The authors regret errors in transforming district and province locations from one coordinate system to another. The authors are indebted to Joan Barceló, Toan Luu Duc Huynh, and Edmund Malesky for bringing these errors to our attention. This note documents the errors and provides corrected text, tables, and figures, and we have also created replication statistical code reflecting these updates. Concretely, the coordinate transformation for data points presented in the published article mistakenly assumed an incorrect projection system rather than appropriately converting from UTM, Zone 48N (the original projection system of the data points for provinces and districts) to latitude and longitude coordinates on the WGS84 reference ellipsoid. This error resulted in location points being off by approximately 2° latitude north of their actual location. See Appendix A of this corrigendum for the location of districts (Panel A) and provinces (Panel B) in the original published paper versus the corrected version. This error also affected the classification of two provinces (namely, Hue and Quang Tri) and 17 districts as belonging to South Vietnam, which we have also corrected in what follows in the construction of the South Vietnam indicator variable. A regression of the corrected instrumental variable measure at the district level, [Formula presented], on the IV used in the original published paper [Formula presented], in a specification that also includes a constant term and the original indicator for former South Vietnam, yields a coefficient estimate of [Formula presented] = 0.901 (SE = 0.005), indicating that they are highly correlated. See Appendix B for a more detailed output of this regression. As a result, in the updated econometric analysis, the regression coefficient estimates and standard errors change only modestly. In all, the substantive findings of the original published article remain largely unchanged. Below we present the corrected tables and figures and all relevant instances in the main text that needed to be updated. The authors think it is important to promptly correct the scientific record and sincerely apologize for our error. The authors would like to apologize for any inconvenience caused.Development StudiesEconomicsApplied EconomicsHuman SocietyApplied economicsDevelopment studiesapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8zk6q8q1articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6jx7p45h2023-11-13T22:29:35Zqt6jx7p45hSelf-reported vs Directly Observed Face Mask Use in KenyaJakubowski, AleksandraEgger, DennisNekesa, CarolyneLowe, LaynaWalker, MichaelMiguel, Edward2021-07-01This cross-sectional study examines the extent to which mask mandates are followed and quantify the bias of self-reported mask usage in Kenya.Biomedical and Clinical SciencesHealth SciencesAdultBehavior Observation TechniquesCOVID-19Cross-Sectional StudiesFemaleHumansKenyaMaleMasksMiddle AgedReproducibility of ResultsSARS-CoV-2Self ReportBiomedical and clinical sciencesHealth sciencesapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6jx7p45harticleJAMA Network Open, vol 4, iss 7e2118830oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt71h427p02023-11-13T00:43:40Zqt71h427p0When Should Governments Subsidize Health? The Case of Mass DewormingAhuja, AmritaBaird, SarahHicks, Joan HamoryKremer, MichaelMiguel, EdwardPowers, Shawn2015-01-01We discuss how evidence and theory can be combined to provide insight on the appropriate subsidy level for health products, focusing on the specific case of deworming. Although intestinal worm infections can be treated using safe, low-cost drugs, some have challenged the view that mass school-based deworming should be a policy priority. We review well-identified research which both uses experimental or quasiexperimental methods to demonstrate causal relationships and adequately accounts for epidemiological externalities from deworming treatment, including studies of deworming campaigns in the Southern United States, Kenya, and Uganda. The existing evidence shows consistent positive impacts on school participation in the short run and on academic test scores, employment, and income in the long run, while suggesting that most parents will not pay for deworming treatment that is not fully subsidized. There is also evidence for a fiscal externality through higher future tax revenue, which may exceed the cost of the program. Our analysis suggests that the economic benefits of school-based deworming programs are likely to exceed their costs in places where worm infestations are endemic. This would likely be the case even if the benefits were only a fraction of estimates in the existing literature.EconomicsApplied EconomicsH2H51I1I12I15I2I20I25I3O1Applied economicsEconometricsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/71h427p0articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt41d8p9fh2023-11-13T00:40:58Zqt41d8p9fhClimate and ConflictBurke, MarshallHsiang, Solomon MMiguel, Edward2015-08-01We review the emerging literature on climate and conflict. We consider multiple types of human conflict, including both interpersonal conflict, such as assault and murder, and intergroup conflict, including riots and civil war. We discuss key methodological issues in estimating causal relationships and largely focus on natural experiments that exploit variation in climate over time. Using a hierarchical meta-analysis that allows us to both estimate the mean effect and quantify the degree of variability across 55 studies, we find that deviations from moderate temperatures and precipitation patterns systematically increase conflict risk. Contemporaneous temperature has the largest average impact, with each 1σ increase in temperature increasing interpersonal conflict by 2.4% and intergroup conflict by 11.3%. We conclude by highlighting research priorities, including a better understanding of the mechanisms linking climate to conflict, societies' ability to adapt to climatic changes, and the likely impacts of future global warming.EconomicsApplied EconomicsEconomic TheoryPeaceJustice and Strong InstitutionsClimate Actionviolencecrimeweathereconometricsmeta-analysisApplied economicsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/41d8p9fharticleAnnual Review of Economics, vol 7, iss 11 - 41oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9b66r5vf2023-11-13T00:38:59Zqt9b66r5vfYou’ve earned it: estimating the impact of human capital on social preferencesJakiela, PamelaMiguel, Edwardte Velde, Vera L2015-09-01We combine data from a randomized evaluation and a laboratory experiment to measure the causal impact of human capital on respect for earned property rights, a component of social preferences with important implications for economic growth and development. We find that higher academic achievement reduces the willingness of young Kenyan women to appropriate others’ labor income, and shifts players toward a 50–50 split norm in a modified dictator game. This study demonstrates that education may have long-run impacts on social preferences, norms and institutions beyond the human capital directly produced.EconomicsApplied EconomicsEconomic TheoryBehavioral and Social ScienceBasic Behavioral and Social ScienceClinical ResearchSocial preferencesEducationExperimentMarketingBankingfinance and investmentApplied economicsapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9b66r5vfarticleExperimental Economics, vol 18, iss 3385 - 407oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4pk561tn2023-11-13T00:33:50Zqt4pk561tnCan War Foster Cooperation?Bauer, MichalBlattman, ChristopherChytilová, JulieHenrich, JosephMiguel, EdwardMitts, Tamar2016-06-01application/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4pk561tnarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3kf9147p2023-11-13T00:29:54Zqt3kf9147pCan War Foster Cooperation?Bauer, MichalBlattman, ChristopherChytilová, JulieHenrich, JosephMiguel, EdwardMitts, Tamar2016-08-01In the past decade, nearly 20 studies have found a strong, persistent pattern in surveys and behavioral experiments from over 40 countries: individual exposure to war violence tends to increase social cooperation at the local level, including community participation and prosocial behavior. Thus while war has many negative legacies for individuals and societies, it appears to leave a positive legacy in terms of local cooperation and civic engagement. We discuss, synthesize, and reanalyze the emerging body of evidence and weigh alternative explanations. There is some indication that war violence enhances in-group or “parochial” norms and preferences especially, a finding that, if true, suggests that the rising social cohesion we document need not promote broader peace.EconomicsApplied EconomicsViolence ResearchBehavioral and Social ScienceBasic Behavioral and Social SciencePeaceJustice and Strong InstitutionsCooperationpost-conflict developmentsocial preferenceswarApplied economicsEconometricsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3kf9147particleJournal of Economic Perspectives, vol 30, iss 3249 - 274oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4657g58g2023-11-13T00:24:12Zqt4657g58gRisky Transportation Choices and the Value of a Statistical LifeLeón, GianmarcoMiguel, Edward2017-01-01This paper exploits an unusual transportation setting to generate some of the first revealed preference value of a statistical life (VSL) estimates from a low- income setting. We estimate the trade- offs individuals are willing to make between mortality risk and cost as they travel to and from the international airport in Sierra Leone. The setting and original dataset allow us to address some typical omitted variable concerns, and also to compare VSL estimates for travelers from different countries, all facing the same choice situation. The average VSL estimate for African travelers in the sample is US$577,000 compared to US$924,000 for non- Africans.EconomicsApplied EconomicsGood Health and Well BeingApplied economicsapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4657g58garticleAmerican Economic Journal Applied Economics, vol 9, iss 1202 - 228oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt08k9b40r2023-11-13T00:00:15Zqt08k9b40rSkill Versus Voice in Local DevelopmentCasey, KatherineGlennerster, RachelMiguel, EdwardVoors, Maarten2018-09-01application/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/08k9b40rarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2xh3z1jn2023-11-12T23:54:38Zqt2xh3z1jnSell Low and Buy High: Arbitrage and Local Price Effects in Kenyan Markets*Burke, MarshallBergquist, Lauren FalcaoMiguel, Edward2019-05-01Large and regular seasonal price fluctuations in local grain markets appear to offer African farmers substantial intertemporal arbitrage opportunities, but these opportunities remain largely unexploited. Small-scale farmers are commonly observed to “sell low and buy high,” rather than the reverse. In a field experiment in Kenya, we show that credit market imperfections limit farmers' abilities to move grain intertemporally. Providing timely access to credit allows farmers to buy at lower prices and sell at higher prices, increasing farm revenues and generating a return on investment of 29%. To understand general equilibrium (GE) effects of these changes in behavior, we vary the density of loan offers across locations. We document significant effects of the credit intervention on seasonal price fluctuations in local grain markets, and show that these GE effects shape individual-level profitability estimates. In contrast to existing experimental work, the results indicate a setting in which microcredit can improve firm profitability, and suggest that GE effects can substantially shape microcredit's effectiveness. In particular, failure to consider these GE effects could lead to underestimates of the social welfare benefits of microcredit interventions. JEL Codes: D21, D51, G21, O13, O16, Q12.EconomicsApplied EconomicsEconometricsEconomic TheoryApplied economicsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2xh3z1jnarticleThe Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol 134, iss 2785 - 842oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6f30j4nm2023-11-12T23:50:58Zqt6f30j4nmUsing Randomized Controlled Trials to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development EconomicsBouguen, AdrienHuang, YueKremer, MichaelMiguel, Edward2019-08-02EconomicsApplied EconomicsClinical Trials and Supportive ActivitiesComparative Effectiveness ResearchClinical ResearchGeneric health relevanceApplied economicsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6f30j4nmarticleAnnual Review of Economics, vol 11, iss 11 - 39oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt63w6406z2023-11-12T23:50:19Zqt63w6406zUsing Randomized Controlled Trials to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development EconomicsBouguen, AdrienHuang, YueKremer, MichaelMiguel, Edward2019-01-01We assess evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on long-run economic productivity and living standards in poor countries. We first document that several studies estimate large positive long-run impacts, but that relatively few existing RCTs have been evaluated over the long run. We next present evidence from a systematic survey of existing RCTs, with a focus on cash transfer and child health programs, and show that a meaningful subset can realistically be evaluated for long-run effects. We discuss ways to bridge the gap between the burgeoning number of development RCTs and the limited number that have been followed up to date, including through new panel (longitudinal) data; improved participant tracking methods; alternative research designs; and access to administrative, remote sensing, and cell phone data. We conclude that the rise of development economics RCTs since roughly 2000 provides a novel opportunity to generate high-quality evidence on the long-run drivers of living standards.randomized controlled trialslong-run impactspanel datalongitudinal datadevelopment economicscash transferschild healthApplied economicsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/63w6406zchapteroai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt05r470xk2023-11-12T23:44:14Zqt05r470xkA framework for open policy analysisde la Guardia, Fernando HocesGrant, SeanMiguel, Edward2021-06-23The evidence-based policy movement promotes the use of empirical evidence to inform policy decision-making. While several social science disciplines are undergoing a 'credibility revolution' focused on openness and replication, policy analysis has yet to systematically embrace transparency and reproducibility. We argue that policy analysis should adopt the open research practices increasingly espoused in related disciplines to advance the credibility of evidence-based policy making. We first discuss the importance of evidence-based policy in an era of increasing disagreement about facts, analysis, and expertise. We present a novel framework for 'open' policy analysis (OPA) and how to achieve it, focusing on examples of recent policy analyses that have incorporated open research practices such as transparent reporting, open data, and code sharing. We conclude with recommendations on how key stakeholders in evidence-based policy can make OPA the norm and thus safeguard trust in using empirical evidence to inform important public policy decisions.Policy and AdministrationHuman SocietyClinical Research8.3 Policyethicsand research governanceHealth and social care services researchGeneric health relevanceQuality Educationresearch transparencyopen sciencepolicy analysisPolitical ScienceLawScience StudiesPolicy and administrationPolitical scienceapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/05r470xkarticleScience and Public Policy, vol 48, iss 2scaa067-oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt07j8n9vz2023-11-12T23:38:47Zqt07j8n9vzTargeting Impact Versus DeprivationHaushofer, JohannesNiehaus, PaulParamo, CarlosMiguel, EdwardWalker, Michael W2022-01-01Development StudiesEconomicsHuman SocietyBehavioral and Social ScienceNo Povertyapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/07j8n9vzarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3w3154kb2023-11-12T23:15:01Zqt3w3154kbSelf-Control and Demand for Preventive Health: Evidence from Hypertension in IndiaBai, LiangHandel, BenjaminMiguel, EdwardRao, Gautam2021-12-02Self-control problems constitute a potential explanation for the underinvestment in preventive health in low-income countries. Behavioral economics offers a tool to solve such problems: commitment devices. We conduct a field experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of different types of theoretically motivated commitment contracts in increasing preventive doctor visits by hypertensive patients in rural India. Despite achieving high take-up of such contracts in some treatment arms, we find no effects on actual doctor visits or individual health outcomes. A substantial number of individuals pay for commitment but fail to follow through on the doctor visit, losing money without experiencing health benefits. We develop and structurally estimate a prespecified model of consumer behavior under present bias with varying levels of naiveté. The results are consistent with a large share of individuals being partially naive about their own self-control problems: sophisticated enough to demand some commitment but overly optimistic about whether a given level of commitment is sufficiently strong to be effective. The results suggest that commitment devices may in practice be welfare diminishing, at least in some contexts, and serve as a cautionary tale about their role in health care.EconomicsApplied EconomicsPreventionClinical ResearchGood Health and Well BeingEconometricsBankingfinance and investmentApplied economicsapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3w3154kbarticleThe Review of Economics and Statistics, vol 103, iss 5835 - 856oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7ws369zg2023-11-12T23:12:54Zqt7ws369zgDeepening or Diminishing Ethnic Divides? The Impact of Urban Migration in KenyaKramon, EricHamory, JoanBaird, SarahMiguel, Edward2022-04-01The impact of urban migration on ethnic politics is the subject of long-standing debate. “First-generation” modernization theories predict that urban migration should reduce ethnic identification and increase trust between groups. “Second-generation” modernization perspectives argue the opposite: Urban migration may amplify ethnic identification and reduce trust. We test these competing expectations with a three-wave panel survey following more than 8,000 Kenyans over a 15-year period, providing novel evidence on the impact of urban migration. Using individual fixed effects regressions, we show that urban migration leads to reductions in ethnic identification; ethnicity's importance to the individual diminishes after migrating. Yet urban migration also reduces trust between ethnic groups, and trust in people generally. Urban migrants become less attached to their ethnicity but more suspicious. The results advance the literature on urbanization and politics and have implications for the potential consequences of ongoing urbanization processes around the world.Human SocietyDemographyReduced InequalitiesApplied EconomicsPolitical SciencePolitical Science & Public AdministrationApplied economicsPolicy and administrationPolitical scienceapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7ws369zgarticleAmerican Journal of Political Science, vol 66, iss 2365 - 384oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4sk6c4f72023-11-12T23:06:38Zqt4sk6c4f7Using Rcts to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development EconomicsBouguen, AdrienHuang, YueKremer, MichaelMiguel, Edward2018-12-01application/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4sk6c4f7articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0nq7q4km2023-11-12T22:49:20Zqt0nq7q4kmSkill Versus Voice in Local DevelopmentCasey, KatherineGlennerster, RachelMiguel, EdwardVoors, Maarten2023-03-03—Where the state is weak, traditional authorities control the local provision of public goods. These leaders come from an older, less educated generation and often rule in an authoritarian and exclusionary fashion. This means the skills of community members may not be leveraged in policymaking. We experimentally evaluate two solutions to this problem in Sierra Leone: one encourages delegation to higher-skill individuals, and a second fosters broader inclusion in decision making. In a real-world infrastructure grants competition, a public nudge to delegate led to better outcomes than the default of chiefly control, whereas attempts to boost participation were largely ineffective.Applied EconomicsEconometricsCommerceManagementTourism and ServicesEconomicsBankingFinance and InvestmentEmerging Infectious DiseasesBankingfinance and investmentApplied economicsapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0nq7q4kmarticleThe Review of Economics and Statistics, vol 105, iss 2311 - 326oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5590542t2023-11-12T22:42:07Zqt5590542tScaling Agricultural Policy InterventionsBergquist, LaurenFaber, BenjaminFally, ThibaultHoelzlein, MatthiasMiguel, EdwardRodríguez-Clare, Andrés2022-12-01application/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5590542tarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0x01r3vh2023-11-08T20:43:24Zqt0x01r3vhA Resampling Approach for Causal Inference on Novel Two-Point Time-Series with Application to Identify Risk Factors for Type-2 Diabetes and Cardiovascular DiseaseDai, XiaowuMouti, SaadVale, Marjorie Lima doRay, SumantraBohn, JeffreyGoldberg, Lisa2023-01-01Two-point time-series data, characterized by baseline and follow-up observations, are frequently encountered in health research. We study a novel two-point time-series structure without a control group, which is driven by an observational routine clinical dataset collected to monitor key risk markers of type-2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We propose a resampling approach called “I-Rand” for independently sampling one of the two-time points for each individual and making inferences on the estimated causal effects based on matching methods. The proposed method is illustrated with data from a service-based dietary intervention to promote a low-carbohydrate diet (LCD), designed to impact risk of T2D and CVD. Baseline data contain a pre-intervention health record of study participants, and health data after LCD intervention are recorded at the follow-up visit, providing a two-point time-series pattern without a parallel control group. Using this approach we find that obesity is a significant risk factor of T2D and CVD, and an LCD approach can significantly mitigate the risks of T2D and CVD. We provide code that implements our method.Mathematical SciencesBiological SciencesBioinformatics and Computational BiologyStatisticsNutritionDiabetesCardiovascularPreventionHeart DiseaseObesityManagement of diseases and conditions7.1 Individual care needsMetabolic and endocrineGood Health and Well BeingBioinformatics and computational biologyapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0x01r3vharticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1zg3z4mb2023-11-08T17:54:13Zqt1zg3z4mbUsing Supervised Learning to Estimate Inequality in the Size and Persistence of Income ShocksBruns-Smith, DavidFeller, AviNakamura, Emi2023-06-12EconomicsEconometricsEconomic TheoryBasic Behavioral and Social ScienceBehavioral and Social ScienceReduced Inequalitiesincome inequalitytime series forecastinguncertainty quantificationCC-BY-NC-NDeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1zg3z4mbarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5tc5s5f52023-10-08T06:59:39Zqt5tc5s5f5The shape of recovery: Implications of past experience for the duration of the COVID-19 recessionEichengreen, BarryPark, DonghyunShin, Kwanho2021-09-01In this paper we seek to make headway on the question of what recovery from Covid-19 recession may look like, focusing on the duration of the recovery - that is, how long it will take to re-attain the levels of output and employment reached at the prior business cycle peak. We start by categorizing all post-1960 recessions in advanced countries and emerging markets into supply-shock, demand-shock and both-shock induced recessions. We measure recovery duration as the number of years required to re-attain pre-recession levels of output or employment. We then rely on the earlier literature on business cycle dynamics to identify candidate variables that can help to account for variations in recovery duration following different kinds of shocks. By asking which of these variables are operative in the Covid-19 recession, we can then draw inferences about the duration of the recovery under different scenarios. A number of our statistical results point in the direction of lengthy recoveries.EconomicsEconometricsRehabilitationDuration of recoveriesCOVID-19EmploymentEmerging marketsOutputEconomic TheoryApplied EconomicsBankingfinance and investmentApplied economicsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5tc5s5f5articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3wn9z3b92023-10-07T13:43:39Zqt3wn9z3b9Bootstrap‐Based Inference for Cube Root AsymptoticsCattaneo, Matias DJansson, MichaelNagasawa, Kenichi2020-01-01This paper proposes a valid bootstrap-based distributional approximation for M-estimators exhibiting a Chernoff (1964)-type limiting distribution. For estimators of this kind, the standard nonparametric bootstrap is inconsistent. The method proposed herein is based on the nonparametric bootstrap, but restores consistency by altering the shape of the criterion function defining the estimator whose distribution we seek to approximate. This modification leads to a generic and easy-to-implement resampling method for inference that is conceptually distinct from other available distributional approximations. We illustrate the applicability of our results with four examples in econometrics and machine learning.EconomicsEconometricsCube root asymptoticsbootstrappingmaximum scoreempirical risk minimizationEconomic TheoryApplied EconomicsApplied economicsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3wn9z3b9articleEconometrica, vol 88, iss 52203 - 2219oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt90z185z02023-10-07T01:12:10Zqt90z185z0Coronavirus Pandemic: Europe Is Once Again Forged in a CrisisEichengreen, Barry2020-05-01EconomicsBankingFinance and InvestmentApplied EconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and ServicesBankingfinance and investmentApplied economicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/90z185z0articleIntereconomics, vol 55, iss 3199 - 200oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt38r5f8dk2023-10-05T07:23:50Zqt38r5f8dkThe Case for Mass Treatment of Intestinal Helminths in Endemic AreasHicks, Joan HamoryKremer, MichaelMiguel, EdwardClements, Archie CA2015-01-01Two articles published earlier this year in the International Journal of Epidemiology [1,2] have re-ignited the debate over the World Health Organization's long-held recommendation of mass-treatment of intestinal helminths in endemic areas. In this note, we discuss the content and relevance of these articles to the policy debate, and review the broader research literature on the educational and economic impacts of deworming. We conclude that existing evidence still indicates that mass deworming is a cost-effective health investment for governments in low-income countries where worm infections are widespread.Public HealthHealth SciencesAnthelminticsCost-Benefit AnalysisDrug TherapyEndemic DiseasesGlobal HealthHealth PolicyHelminthiasisHumansIntestinal DiseasesParasiticWorld Health OrganizationBiological SciencesMedical and Health SciencesTropical MedicineBiological sciencesBiomedical and clinical sciencesHealth sciencesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/38r5f8dkarticlePLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol 9, iss 10e0004214oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt29p2855j2023-10-05T07:23:46Zqt29p2855jShould the WHO withdraw support for mass deworming?Croke, KevinHicks, Joan HamoryHsu, EricKremer, MichaelMiguel, EdwardGray, Darren J2017-01-01Biological SciencesBiomedical and Clinical SciencesHealth SciencesAnthelminticsHelminthiasisHumansMass Drug AdministrationNeglected DiseasesTropical MedicineWorld Health OrganizationMedical and Health SciencesBiological sciencesBiomedical and clinical sciencesHealth sciencesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/29p2855jarticlePLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol 11, iss 6e0005481oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2mk6969c2023-10-04T23:07:55Zqt2mk6969cDecreasing ImpatienceChambers, Christopher PEchenique, FedericoMiller, Alan D2023-08-01We characterize decreasing impatience, a common behavioral phenomenon in intertemporal choice. Discount factors that display decreasing impatience are characterized through a convexity axiom for investments at fixed interest rates. Then we show that they are equivalent to a geometric average of generalized quasi-hyperbolic discount rates. Finally, they emerge through parimutuel preference aggregation of exponential discount factors.EconomicsApplied EconomicsBankingfinance and investmentApplied economicsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2mk6969carticleAmerican Economic Journal Microeconomics, vol 15, iss 3527 - 551oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3883h8j12023-10-04T21:37:54Zqt3883h8j1Cite-seeing and reviewing: A study on citation bias in peer review.Stelmakh, IvanRastogi, CharviLiu, RyanChawla, ShuchiShah, NiharEchenique, Federico2023-01-01Citations play an important role in researchers careers as a key factor in evaluation of scientific impact. Many anecdotes advice authors to exploit this fact and cite prospective reviewers to try obtaining a more positive evaluation for their submission. In this work, we investigate if such a citation bias actually exists: Does the citation of a reviewers own work in a submission cause them to be positively biased towards the submission? In conjunction with the review process of two flagship conferences in machine learning and algorithmic economics, we execute an observational study to test for citation bias in peer review. In our analysis, we carefully account for various confounding factors such as paper quality and reviewer expertise, and apply different modeling techniques to alleviate concerns regarding the model mismatch. Overall, our analysis involves 1,314 papers and 1,717 reviewers and detects citation bias in both venues we consider. In terms of the effect size, by citing a reviewers work, a submission has a non-trivial chance of getting a higher score from the reviewer: an expected increase in the score is approximately 0.23 on a 5-point Likert item. For reference, a one-point increase of a score by a single reviewer improves the position of a submission by 11% on average.HumansProspective StudiesPeer ReviewBiasResearch PersonnelMachine LearningPeer ReviewResearchapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3883h8j1articlePLoS One, vol 18, iss 7oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4z39g6vx2023-10-04T10:25:06Zqt4z39g6vxThe Analytics of the Greek Crisis DiscussionIoannides, YannisPhilippon, Presenter ThomasGourinchas, Pierre-OlivierBlanchard, OlivierSteinsson, JonUhlig, HaraldAlvarez, FernandoReis, RicardoKlein, Michael2017-01-01Economic TheoryEconomicsApplied economicsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4z39g6vxarticleNBER MACROECONOMICS ANNUAL, vol 31, iss 1100 - 102oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9td1m7mv2023-09-27T17:36:56Zqt9td1m7mvUniversal screening increases the representation of low-income and minority students in gifted educationCard, DavidGiuliano, Laura2016-11-29Low-income and minority students are substantially underrepresented in gifted education programs. The disparities persist despite efforts by many states and school districts to broaden participation through changes in their eligibility criteria. One explanation for the persistent gap is that standard processes for identifying gifted students, which are based largely on the referrals of parents and teachers, tend to miss qualified students from underrepresented groups. We study this hypothesis using the experiences of a large urban school district following the introduction of a universal screening program for second graders. Without any changes in the standards for gifted eligibility, the screening program led to large increases in the fractions of economically disadvantaged and minority students placed in gifted programs. Comparisons of the newly identified gifted students with those who would have been placed in the absence of screening show that Blacks and Hispanics, free/reduced price lunch participants, English language learners, and girls were all systematically "underreferred" in the traditional parent/teacher referral system. Our findings suggest that parents and teachers often fail to recognize the potential of poor and minority students and those with limited English proficiency.Curriculum and PedagogyEducationPreventionPediatricClinical ResearchQuality EducationChildChildGiftedChildPreschoolEthnicityFemaleHumansMaleMass ScreeningMinority GroupsSocioeconomic Factorsgifted identificationuniversal screeningunderrepresentationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9td1m7mvarticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol 113, iss 4813678 - 13683oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8c68x0882023-09-26T20:47:13Zqt8c68x088Merging Innovation into Antitrust Agency Enforcement of the Clayton ActGilbert, Richard JGreene, Hillary2015-01-01The treatment of innovation within the merger context by U.S. Antitrust Agencies continues to evolve, with regard to both general statements of enforcement policy and specific enforcement decisions. The respective merger guidelines issued by the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission did not consider potential impacts on innovation or research and development until 1982, and then only in passing. By contrast, their joint 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines devote an entire section to innovation issues. This Essay examines both the frequency and manner with which the Antitrust Agencies invoke innovation-based concerns within their respective merger challenges from 2004-2014. It finds that both the DOJ and FTC allege adverse innovation effects in a very large fraction of their respective merger challenges in high-R&D-intensity industries. After exploring possible explanations, the Essay recommends that the Agencies describe their innovation concerns with greater specificity when merger challenges allege harm to innovation.LawLaw and legal studiesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8c68x088articleGEORGE WASHINGTON LAW REVIEW, vol 83, iss 61919 - 1947oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2k77x6tn2023-09-26T09:38:45Zqt2k77x6tnExternal Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation EffectsGourinchas, Pierre-OlivierRey, Helene2014-01-01We provide an overview of the recent developments of the literature on the determinants of long-term capital flows, global imbalances, and valuation effects. We present the main stylized facts of the new international financial landscape in which external balance sheets of countries have grown in size and discuss implications for the international monetary and financial system. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.Exchange ratesCurrent accountInternational capital flowsInternational monetary systemapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2k77x6tnchapteroai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt88v090b02023-09-26T08:30:49Zqt88v090b0Are Mixed Neighborhoods Always Unstable? Two-Sided and One-Sided TippingCard, DavidMas, AlexandreRothstein, Jesse2011-01-01Racial segregation is a defining feature of urban neighborhoods in the United States. A large body of social science research has established that black children raised in more segregated areas have worse outcomes' including lower levels of completed education' lower test scores' lower marriage rates' lower employment and earnings' and higher crime rates (e.g.' Massey and Denton 1993; Cutler and Glaeser 1997). Though researchers still do not agree about the extent to which the observed correlations between segregation and these outcomes are causal' a major goal of public policy over the past four decades has been to reduce racial segregation in neighborhoods' schools' and workplaces. The efficacy of integration policies depends critically on the underlying forces that have led to and sustained segregation. While institutional and legal forces played an important part in enforcing segregation in the Jim Crow era' many analysts have argued that the preferences of white families for neighborhoods with a lower fraction of minority residents are the driving force in explaining segregation today (e.g.' Cutler and Glaeser 1997). In a highly influential contribution' Schelling (1971) showed that even when most whites have relatively weak preferences for lower minority shares' social interactions in preferences are likely to lead to a fully segregated equilibrium. In Schelling's model (and in more recent theoretical studies' including Brock and Durlauf 2001 and Glaeser and Scheinkman 2003)' a given neighborhood can have multiple equilibria. Holding constant conditions in the rest of the city' the neighborhood could either be (nearly) 100 percent white' nearly 100 percent minority' or a mixture. Importantly' however' in Schelling's formulation the mixed equilibrium is inherently unstable: Adding a few extra minority families sets off a chain of departures by whites that only ends once all the white families have left. Likewise' adding a few white families sets off a chain of departures by minority families that ultimately lead to an all-white neighborhood. In this chapter we use data on the evolution of census tracts from 1970 until 2000 to investigate whether integrated neighborhoods are sustainable in the long run' or whether they are inherently unstable and destined to become either 100 percent minority or 100 percent white. Our analysis builds on a companion paper (Card' Mas' and Rothstein 2008b; hereafter CMR)' in which we found that most major metropolitan areas are characterized by a city-specific "tipping point'" a level of the minority share in a neighborhood that once exceeded sets off a rapid exodus of the white population. To illustrate this finding' Figure 14.1 plots mean percentage changes in the white population of Chicago census tracts from 1970 to 1980 against the tract's minority share in 1970.1 The graph shows clear evidence of a critical threshold at around a 5 percent minority share: neighborhoods with 1970 minority shares below this threshold experienced gains in their white populations over the next decade' while those with initial shares above the threshold experienced substantial outflows. These patterns hold on average for a broad sample of U.S. cities in each of the past three decades. Most common understandings of neighborhood tipping envision a transition from virtually all-white composition to virtually 100 percent minority. This is certainly the historical experience. Northern cities had relatively low numbers of racial minorities in 1940' but as African Americans migrated from the South' many neighborhoods within these cities tipped from all-white to nearly all-black. This process has been interpreted by many analysts as evidence of the inherent instability in integrated neighborhoods predicted by Schelling's model. According to this interpretation' the mixed neighborhoods observed today (say with a 10 or 15% minority share) are in the process of transitioning to an all-minority status. Nevertheless' a class of alternative models-including the one developed in CMR-suggests that mixed neighborhoods can survive in the long run' so long as the minority share does not exceed a critical tipping point. In these alternative models' the tipping point is not a "knife edge" temporary equilibrium that is destined to fail. Rather' the tipping point represents a boundary point. Neighborhoods with minority shares below this level can remain integrated; but once the tipping point is exceeded' the neighborhood will quickly move to a nearly 100% minority equilibrium. The distinction between these views of tipping is quite important for policy purposes. Under Schelling's model' planners hoping to create and maintain vital integrated neighborhoods must fight continuously against market forces' which are always pulling the neighborhood toward complete segregation. By contrast' under the alternative models' a neighborhood can remain stable with a moderate minority share. The alternative models provide a justification for policies meant to encourage racial and ethnic diversity in neighborhoods. If integrated neighborhoods are inherently unstable' however' these efforts are likely to have little long run effect on the degree of racial segregation in a city. We attempt to distinguish between alternative models of tipping by investigating whether integrated neighborhoods with minority shares below the tipping point tend to experience rapid minority flight (as predicted by Schelling's original model) or whether they can remain integrated over several decades. The answer to this question is of growing importance because tipping points appear to have risen. If neighborhoods below the tipping point are stable' increases in the tipping point can lead to increasingly integrated neighborhoods' all else equal. CMR documented average tipping points in the range of a 13 percent minority share over the 1970-1990 period' with slight increases over time. This contrasts sharply with earlier experience' where neighborhoods in many cities seemed prone to tip in response to even a small (1 or 2 percent) minority presence. Applying the same methods as in CMR' we estimated the tipping points for three large Midwestern cities (Chicago' Cleveland' and Detroit) for the 1940-1970 period. Figure 14.2 shows the evolution of the tipping points in these cities since 1940.2 In two of the three cities' the tipping point was near zero in 1940 and 1950 (in the third' Cleveland' it was near 10 percent in 1940 but fell to near zero in 1950)' and in each case it rose substantially by 1970 and farther in the later years. Although 1940 and 1950 tipping points are not available for other cities' the figure also shows that the average tipping point across all large cities in the country was around 12 percent in 1970 and rose somewhat over the next two decades. Changes in tipping points have been accompanied by dramatic changes in the cross-sectional distribution of minority shares across census tracts. Figure 14.3 shows the distribution of tract minority shares for the pooled sample of tracts from the three cities in 1950' 1970' 1980' and 1990. In 1950' this distribution is highly bimodal' with many allwhite neighborhoods' a few all-minority (almost entirely black) neighborhoods' and essentially no integrated neighborhoods. This distribution would be expected from a tipping point at a very low minority share. In more recent decades' we see two key changes. First' there are more neighborhoods with very high minority shares' as each city's black (and more recently Hispanic) population expanded over the second half of the twentieth century. Second' we increasingly see neighborhoods with intermediate minority shares' neither all-white nor all-minority. Many of these integrated neighborhoods have minority shares below the (now higher) tipping points. The histograms suggest the possibility that neighborhoods below the tipping points might be stable' though because they represent only cross-sections they are also consistent with instability of integrated tracts. In what follows we present a series of tests for the stability of neighborhoods with minority shares below the tipping points identified by CMR. We focus on the 1970 tipping point. As indicated in Figure 14.2' 1970 seems to represent the beginning of the modern era for this sort of analysis' with tipping points that resemble those seen in the 1980s and 1990s more closely than they do the lower tipping points observed in the 1940s and 1950s.3 Importantly for our purposes' a focus on 1970 allows us to observe neighborhoods' outcomes over a thirty-year period. We examine the racial/ethnic composition of census tracts in 1980' 1990' and 2000' relating this to a tract's location relative to the 1970 tipping point. Overall' we conclude that tipping is one-sided: while neighborhoods with minority shares above the 1970 tipping point appear to move toward high minority concentrations in later decades' those that remain below the tipping point are more stable' and show no indication of substantial minority flight. Copyright © 2011 University of Pennsylvania Press. All rights reserved.H0R2R31publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/88v090b0articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt88p5f2qz2023-09-25T16:55:48Zqt88p5f2qzSubjective mortality risk and bequestsGan, LiGong, GuanHurd, MichaelMcFadden, Daniel2015-10-01This paper investigates the ability of subjective expectations about life expectancy to predict wealth holding patterns in later life. Based on panel data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old, we estimate a structural life-cycle model with bequests. Each individual's subjective survival rates in the future are estimated with data on his belief of survival probabilities to a target age. This estimation is build upon a Bayesian updating method developed in Gan et al. (2005). We find that life-cycle model using subjective survival rates performs better than using life-table survival rates in predicting wealth holdings. This result suggests that subjective survival expectations play an important role in deciding consumption and savings. In addition, the estimation results show that most bequests are involuntary or accidental.EconomicsApplied EconomicsAgingClinical ResearchGood Health and Well BeingSubjective mortality riskBequestLife-cycle modelMedian regressionC81D91StatisticsEconometricsApplied economicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/88p5f2qzarticleJournal of Econometrics, vol 188, iss 2514 - 525oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4vw984q02023-09-22T12:47:17Zqt4vw984q0Incentivising safe sex: a randomised trial of conditional cash transfers for HIV and sexually transmitted infection prevention in rural Tanzaniade Walque, DamienDow, William HNathan, RoseAbdul, RamadhaniAbilahi, FarajiGong, ErickIsdahl, ZacharyJamison, JulianJullu, BoniphaceKrishnan, SuneetaMajura, AlbertMiguel, EdwardMoncada, JeanneMtenga, SallyMwanyangala, Mathew AlexanderPackel, LauraSchachter, JuliusShirima, KizitoMedlin, Carol A2012-01-01ObjectiveThe authors evaluated the use of conditional cash transfers as an HIV and sexually transmitted infection prevention strategy to incentivise safe sex.DesignAn unblinded, individually randomised and controlled trial.Setting10 villages within the Kilombero/Ulanga districts of the Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System in rural south-west Tanzania.ParticipantsThe authors enrolled 2399 participants, aged 18-30 years, including adult spouses.InterventionsParticipants were randomly assigned to either a control arm (n=1124) or one of two intervention arms: low-value conditional cash transfer (eligible for $10 per testing round, n=660) and high-value conditional cash transfer (eligible for $20 per testing round, n=615). The authors tested participants every 4 months over a 12-month period for the presence of common sexually transmitted infections. In the intervention arms, conditional cash transfer payments were tied to negative sexually transmitted infection test results. Anyone testing positive for a sexually transmitted infection was offered free treatment, and all received counselling.Main outcome measuresThe primary study end point was combined prevalence of the four sexually transmitted infections, which were tested and reported to subjects every 4 months: Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis and Mycoplasma genitalium. The authors also tested for HIV, herpes simplex virus 2 and syphilis at baseline and month 12.ResultsAt the end of the 12-month period, for the combined prevalence of any of the four sexually transmitted infections, which were tested and reported every 4 months (C trachomatis, N gonorrhoeae, T vaginalis and M genitalium), unadjusted RR for the high-value conditional cash transfer arm compared to controls was 0.80 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.06) and the adjusted RR was 0.73 (95% CI 0.47 to 0.99). Unadjusted RR for the high-value conditional cash transfer arm compared to the low-value conditional cash transfer arm was 0.76 (95% CI 0.49 to 1.03) and the adjusted RR was 0.69 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.92). No harm was reported.ConclusionsConditional cash transfers used to incentivise safer sexual practices are a potentially promising new tool in HIV and sexually transmitted infections prevention. Additional larger study would be useful to clarify the effect size, to calibrate the size of the incentive and to determine whether the intervention can be delivered cost effectively.Trial registration numberNCT00922038 ClinicalTrials.gov.Public HealthBiomedical and Clinical SciencesClinical SciencesHealth SciencesHIV/AIDSClinical Trials and Supportive ActivitiesPreventionBehavioral and Social ScienceSexually Transmitted InfectionsInfectious DiseasesMental HealthClinical Research3.1 Primary prevention interventions to modify behaviours or promote wellbeingPrevention of disease and conditionsand promotion of well-beingInfectionGood Health and Well BeingPublic Health and Health ServicesOther Medical and Health SciencesBiomedical and clinical sciencesHealth sciencesPsychologyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4vw984q0articleBMJ Open, vol 2, iss 1e000747oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt35g3339z2023-09-19T07:38:23Zqt35g3339zHOW THE GROWING GAP IN LIFE EXPECTANCY MAY AFFECT RETIREMENT BENEFITS AND REFORMS.Charles, KerwinCoile, CourtneyGale, WilliamGoldman, DanaLucas, CharlesOrszag, PeterSheiner, LouiseTysinger, BryanWeil, DavidWolfers, JustinWong, RebecaAuerbach, AlanLee, Ronald2017-07-01Older Americans have experienced dramatic gains in life expectancy in recent decades, but an emerging literature reveals that these gains are accumulating mostly to those at the top of the income distribution. We explore how growing inequality in life expectancy affects lifetime benefits from Social Security, Medicare, and other programs and how this phenomenon interacts with possible program reforms. We first project that life expectancy at age 50 for males in the two highest income quintiles will rise by 7 to 8 years between the 1930 and 1960 birth cohorts, but that the two lowest income quintiles will experience little to no increase over that time period. This divergence in life expectancy will cause the gap between average lifetime program benefits received by men in the highest and lowest quintiles to widen by $130,000 (in $2009) over this period. Finally we simulate the effect of Social Security reforms such as raising the normal retirement age and changing the benefit formula to see whether they mitigate or enhance the reduced progressivity resulting from the widening gap in life expectancy.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/35g3339zarticleGeneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice, vol 42, iss 3oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt87f2z6cx2023-09-16T13:58:24Zqt87f2z6cxTesting theories of financial decision making.Chambers, ChristopherEchenique, FedericoSaito, Kota2016-04-12We describe the observable content of some of the most widely used models of decision under uncertainty: models of translation invariant preferences. In particular, we characterize the models of variational, maxmin, constant absolute risk aversion, and constant relative risk aversion utilities. In each case we present a revealed preference axiom that is satisfied by a dataset if and only if the dataset is consistent with the corresponding utility representation. We test our axioms using data from an experiment on financial decisions.homotheticityrevealed preferencetranslation invarianceuncertaintyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/87f2z6cxarticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, vol 113, iss 15oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8pt4287c2023-09-15T22:37:47Zqt8pt4287cApproximate Expected Utility RationalizationEchenique, FedericoImai, TaisukeSaito, Kota2023-01-01Abstract:
We propose a new measure of deviations from expected utility theory. For any positive number e, we give a characterization of the datasets with a rationalization that is within e (in beliefs, utility, or perceived prices) of expected utility (EU) theory, under the assumption of risk aversion. The number e can then be used as a measure of how far the data is to EU theory. We apply our methodology to data from three large-scale experiments. Many subjects in these experiments are consistent with utility maximization, but not with EU maximization. Our measure of distance to expected utility is correlated with the subjects’ demographic characteristics.EconomicsApplied economicsEconometricsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8pt4287carticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt66p0x6rp2023-09-15T22:36:44Zqt66p0x6rpBalanced equilibrium in pseudo-markets with endowmentsEchenique, FedericoMiralles, AntonioZhang, Jun2023-09-01Discrete allocationEndowmentPseudo -market procedureBalanced individual rationalityEconomic TheoryApplied EconomicsApplied economicsEconomic theoryapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/66p0x6rparticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0dp237jm2023-09-13T18:01:11Zqt0dp237jmDemocracy and the Transnational Dimensions of Low-Level Conflict and State RepressionRoessler, MartinZwerschke, PatrickOld, Jonathan2021-09-07Abstract:
This paper examines the transnational dimensions of low-level conflict and state repression. In this regard, special emphasis is placed on the role of political regimes. Drawing on a simple model, we argue that democracy has opposing effects on conflict intensity. On one hand, democracy satisfies demand for political participation and thus reduces conflict potential, while, on the other hand, we highlight that domestic democracy may spur dissatisfaction and conflict abroad, which, in turn, may induce conflict spillovers. As a result, the net effect of democracy on low-level conflict and state repression is ambiguous and depends on the level of democracy in the neighborhood: We predict that democracy is more pacifying in democratic environments and may spur conflict in autocratic environments. By the symmetry of the model, we also predict that democratic environments are more pacifying for democratic countries and may spur conflict in autocracies. Empirical evidence using panel data on different types of low-level conflict and state repression for 160 countries in the period from 1950 to 2011 supports these hypotheses. Additionally, two case studies illustrate the mechanisms of our model.Policy and AdministrationPolitical ScienceSocial WorkInternational RelationsPolitical scienceapplication/pdfCC-BY-NC-SAeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0dp237jmarticleInternational Studies Quarterly, vol 65, iss 3753 - 767oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8958q1xb2023-09-13T17:58:11Zqt8958q1xbCycles of Fire? Politics and Forest Burning in IndonesiaBalboni, ClareBurgess, RobinHeil, AntonOld, JonathanOlken, Benjamin A2021-05-01This paper examines the link between electoral incentives and environmental degradation by exploiting a satellite dataset on 107,000 forest fires and 879 asynchronous district elections in Indonesia. Fires represent a cheap but illegal means of converting forested land to other uses, but they risk burning out of control and creating substantial negative environmental externalities. We find a significant electoral cycle in forest fires. Ignitions and area burned decline during election years but steeply increase in the year after. The results suggest that politicians may suppress this activity at times when it might particularly dent their electoral chances.EconomicsApplied EconomicsLife on Landapplication/pdfCC-BY-NC-SAeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8958q1xbarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt759110mx2023-09-13T17:56:03Zqt759110mxHealthy ageing trends in England between 2002 to 2018: Improving but slowing and unequalOld, JonathanScott, Andrew2023-10-01Human SocietyDemographyAgingUnderpinning research1.2 Psychological and socioeconomic processesGood Health and Well BeingReduced InequalitiesADLsAgeingFrailtyHealthy ageingHealth inequalitiesApplied economicsEconomic theoryPolicy and administrationapplication/pdfCC-BYeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/759110mxarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt95g5h77z2023-09-12T15:57:26Zqt95g5h77zSurvey of open science practices and attitudes in the social sciences.Ferguson, JoelLittman, RebeccaChristensen, GarretPaluck, ElizabethSwanson, NicholasWang, ZenanMiguel, EdwardBirke, DavidPezzuto, John-Henry2023-09-05Open science practices such as posting data or code and pre-registering analyses are increasingly prescribed and debated in the applied sciences, but the actual popularity and lifetime usage of these practices remain unknown. This study provides an assessment of attitudes toward, use of, and perceived norms regarding open science practices from a sample of authors published in top-10 (most-cited) journals and PhD students in top-20 ranked North American departments from four major social science disciplines: economics, political science, psychology, and sociology. We observe largely favorable private attitudes toward widespread lifetime usage (meaning that a researcher has used a particular practice at least once) of open science practices. As of 2020, nearly 90% of scholars had ever used at least one such practice. Support for posting data or code online is higher (88% overall support and nearly at the ceiling in some fields) than support for pre-registration (58% overall). With respect to norms, there is evidence that the scholars in our sample appear to underestimate the use of open science practices in their field. We also document that the reported lifetime prevalence of open science practices increased from 49% in 2010 to 87% a decade later.HumansSocial SciencesPoliticsResearch PersonnelStudentsAttitudeapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/95g5h77zarticleNature Communications, vol 14, iss 1oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4kt5g2x32023-09-02T12:43:23Zqt4kt5g2x3The Dispersion BiasGoldberg, Lisa RPapanicolaou, AlexShkolnik, Alex2022-06-01We identify and correct excess dispersion in the leading eigenvector of a sample covariance matrix when the number of variables vastly exceeds the number of observations. Our correction is datadriven, and it materially diminishes the substantial impact of estimation error on weights and risk forecasts of minimum variance portfolios. We quantify that impact with a novel metric, the optimization bias, which has a positive lower bound prior to correction and tends to zero almost surely after correction. Our analysis sheds light on aspects of how estimation error corrupts an estimated covariance matrix and is transmitted to portfolios via quadratic optimization.dispersion biasoptimization biaseigenvectorminimum variance portfoliocovariance matrixshrinkageApplied MathematicsStatisticsBankingFinance and Investmentapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kt5g2x3articleSIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, vol 13, iss 2521 - 550oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3mm9r9pp2023-09-02T12:12:54Zqt3mm9r9ppJames–Stein for the leading eigenvectorGoldberg, Lisa RKercheval, Alec N2023-01-10Recent research identifies and corrects bias, such as excess dispersion, in the leading sample eigenvector of a factor-based covariance matrix estimated from a high-dimension low sample size (HL) data set. We show that eigenvector bias can have a substantial impact on variance-minimizing optimization in the HL regime, while bias in estimated eigenvalues may have little effect. We describe a data-driven eigenvector shrinkage estimator in the HL regime called "James-Stein for eigenvectors" (JSE) and its close relationship with the James-Stein (JS) estimator for a collection of averages. We show, both theoretically and with numerical experiments, that, for certain variance-minimizing problems of practical importance, efforts to correct eigenvalues have little value in comparison to the JSE correction of the leading eigenvector. When certain extra information is present, JSE is a consistent estimator of the leading eigenvector.BiasSample Sizeasymptotic regimeshrinkagefactor modeloptimizationcovariance matrixapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3mm9r9pparticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol 120, iss 2e2207046120oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt98f9410b2023-09-02T12:12:06Zqt98f9410bSustainable investing and the cross-section of returns and maximum drawdownGoldberg, Lisa RMouti, Saad2022-11-01We use supervised learning to identify factors that predict the cross-section of returns and maximum drawdown for stocks in the US equity market. Our data run from January 1970 to December 2019 and our analysis includes ordinary least squares, penalized linear regressions, tree-based models, and neural networks. We find that the most important predictors tended to be consistent across models, and that non-linear models had better predictive power than linear models. Predictive power was higher in calm periods than in stressed periods. Environmental, social, and governance indicators marginally impacted the predictive power of non-linear models in our data, despite their negative correlation with maximum drawdown and positive correlation with returns. Upon exploring whether ESG variables are captured by some models, we find that ESG data contribute to the prediction nonetheless.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/98f9410barticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3kc7174f2023-09-02T12:11:11Zqt3kc7174fIS INDEX CONCENTRATION AN INEVITABLE CONSEQUENCE OF MARKET-CAPITALIZATION WEIGHTING?Goldberg, Lisa RMadhavan, AnanthSelwitz, HarrisonShkolnik, Alexander2023-01-01Indexconcentrationbreadthpower lawturnoverreflecting Brownian motionBankingFinance and Investmentapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3kc7174farticleJOURNAL OF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, vol 21, iss 250 - 71oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6c55s38q2023-08-29T16:42:32Zqt6c55s38qElections and selfishnessBjorvatn, KjetilGalle, SimonBerge, Lars Ivar OppedalMiguel, EdwardPosner, Daniel NTungodden, BertilZhang, Kelly2021-02-01Elections affect the division of resources in society and are occasions for political elites to make appeals rooted in voters' self-interest. Hence, elections may erode altruistic norms and cause people to behave more selfishly. We test this intuition using Dictator Games in a lab-in-the-field experiment involving a sample of more than 1000 individuals in Kenya and Tanzania. We adopt two approaches. First, we experimentally prime participants to think about the upcoming or most recent elections and find that this priming treatment reduces how much money participants are willing to give to other players. Second, we compare results obtained across lab rounds in Kenya taking place right before the country's 2013 national elections and eight months prior, and find that selfishness is greater in the lab round more proximate to the election. Our results suggest that elections may affect social behavior in important—and previously unrecognized—ways.ElectionsAltruismDictator GameClientelismEast-AfricaAfricaClientelism KenyaTanzaniaPolitical SciencePolitical Science & Public Administrationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6c55s38qarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt14p9b5h82023-08-29T13:33:07Zqt14p9b5h8Individualism, Polarization and Recovery from the COVID-19 CrisisEichengreen, Barry2020-11-01Political polarization, meaning sharp differences in the political ideologies and preferences of the partisans of different parties, implies that members of one party are more likely to dismiss the policies and recommendations of spokesmen and appointees of the other party on the grounds that those policies and recommendations are informed by value systems inimical to their own. In the US, this means that when spokesmen for one party endorse masks, members of the other party reject them instinctively and automatically.Applied EconomicsEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/14p9b5h8articleIntereconomics, vol 55, iss 6371 - 374oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1547q2zg2023-08-29T03:56:46Zqt1547q2zgSpillover effects in epidemiology: parameters, study designs and methodological considerationsBenjamin-Chung, JadeArnold, Benjamin FBerger, DavidLuby, Stephen PMiguel, EdwardColford, John MHubbard, Alan E2018-02-01Many public health interventions provide benefits that extend beyond their direct recipients and impact people in close physical or social proximity who did not directly receive the intervention themselves. A classic example of this phenomenon is the herd protection provided by many vaccines. If these 'spillover effects' (i.e. 'herd effects') are present in the same direction as the effects on the intended recipients, studies that only estimate direct effects on recipients will likely underestimate the full public health benefits of the intervention. Causal inference assumptions for spillover parameters have been articulated in the vaccine literature, but many studies measuring spillovers of other types of public health interventions have not drawn upon that literature. In conjunction with a systematic review we conducted of spillovers of public health interventions delivered in low- and middle-income countries, we classified the most widely used spillover parameters reported in the empirical literature into a standard notation. General classes of spillover parameters include: cluster-level spillovers; spillovers conditional on treatment or outcome density, distance or the number of treated social network links; and vaccine efficacy parameters related to spillovers. We draw on high quality empirical examples to illustrate each of these parameters. We describe study designs to estimate spillovers and assumptions required to make causal inferences about spillovers. We aim to advance and encourage methods for spillover estimation and reporting by standardizing spillover parameter nomenclature and articulating the causal inference assumptions required to estimate spillovers.ImmunizationPreventionVaccine RelatedGeneric health relevanceDisease TransmissionInfectiousEpidemiologic MethodsHealth PromotionHumansImmunityHerdPublic HealthResearch DesignSystematic Reviews as TopicVaccinationSpillover effectsindirect effectsherd effectsherd immunitydiffusionexternalitiesinterferenceStatisticsPublic Health and Health ServicesEpidemiologypubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1547q2zgarticleInternational Journal of Epidemiology, vol 47, iss 1332 - 347oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt83n8n7j12023-08-29T01:37:37Zqt83n8n7j1Fiscal multipliers in the COVID19 recessionAuerbach, AlanGorodnichenko, YuriyMcCrory, Peter BMurphy, Daniel2022-09-01In response to the record-breaking COVID19 recession, many governments have adopted unprecedented fiscal stimuli. While countercyclical fiscal policy is effective in fighting conventional recessions, little is known about the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the current environment with widespread shelter-in-place ("lockdown") policies and the associated considerable limits on economic activity. Using detailed regional variation in economic conditions, lockdown policies, and U.S. government spending, we document that the effects of government spending were stronger during the peak of the pandemic recession, but only in cities that were not subject to strong stay-at-home orders. We examine mechanisms that can account for our evidence and place our findings in the context of other recent evidence from microdata.Clinical ResearchQuality EducationCOVID19Fiscal multiplierStimulusApplied EconomicsEconometricsBankingFinance and InvestmentFinanceapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/83n8n7j1articleJournal of International Money and Finance, vol 126, iss Quart. J. Econ. 132 3 2017102669oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9cq8j8222023-08-28T20:45:26Zqt9cq8j822Reporting all results efficiently: A RARE proposal to open up the file drawerLaitin, David DMiguel, EdwardAlrababa’h, Ala’Bogdanoski, AleksandarGrant, SeanHoeberling, KatherineMo, Cecilia HyunjungMoore, Don AVazire, SimineWeinstein, JeremyWilliamson, Scott2021-12-28While the social sciences have made impressive progress in adopting transparent research practices that facilitate verification, replication, and reuse of materials, the problem of publication bias persists. Bias on the part of peer reviewers and journal editors, as well as the use of outdated research practices by authors, continues to skew literature toward statistically significant effects, many of which may be false positives. To mitigate this bias, we propose a framework to enable authors to report all results efficiently (RARE), with an initial focus on experimental and other prospective empirical social science research that utilizes public study registries. This framework depicts an integrated system that leverages the capacities of existing infrastructure in the form of public registries, institutional review boards, journals, and granting agencies, as well as investigators themselves, to efficiently incentivize full reporting and thereby, improve confidence in social science findings. In addition to increasing access to the results of scientific endeavors, a well-coordinated research ecosystem can prevent scholars from wasting time investigating the same questions in ways that have not worked in the past and reduce wasted funds on the part of granting agencies.Preventionresearch transparencyregistriesnull findingspublication biasfile drawer problemapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9cq8j822articleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol 118, iss 52e2106178118oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0k20m5r32023-08-28T19:26:01Zqt0k20m5r3Inflation expectations as a policy tool?Coibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyKumar, SatenPedemonte, Mathieu2020-05-01We assess the prospects for central banks using inflation expectations as a policy tool for stabilization purposes. We review recent work on how expectations of agents are formed and how they affect their economic decisions. Empirical evidence suggests that inflation expectations of households and firms affect their actions but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear, especially for firms. Two additional limitations prevent policy-makers from being able to actively manage inflation expectations. First, available surveys of firms' expectations are systematically deficient, which can only be addressed through the creation of large, nationally representative surveys of firms. Second, neither households' nor firms' expectations respond much to monetary policy announcements in low-inflation environments. We provide suggestions for how monetary policy-makers could pierce this veil of inattention through new communication strategies as well as the potential pitfalls to trying to do so.SurveyInflation expectationsFirmsManagersE31C83D84surveyinflation expectationsfirmsmanagersEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0k20m5r3articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5tt3b7k12023-08-28T14:08:01Zqt5tt3b7k1Inequality, fiscal policy and COVID19 restrictions in a demand-determined economyAuerbach, Alan JGorodnichenko, YuriyMurphy, Daniel2021-08-01We evaluate the effects of inequality, fiscal policy, and COVID19 restrictions in a model of economic slack with potentially rigid capital operating costs. Rich households satiate their demand for goods/services (and consume an endowment on the margin), whereas poor households' spending on goods/services is limited by their income (which in turn depends on spending by the rich and on fiscal transfers). The model implies that inequality has large negative effects on output, while also diminishing the effects of demand-side fiscal stimulus. COVID restrictions can reduce current-period GDP by more than is directly associated with the restrictions themselves when rigid capital costs induce firm exit. Higher inequality is associated with larger restriction multipliers. The effectiveness of fiscal policies depends on inequality and the joint distribution of capital operating costs and firm revenues. Furthermore, COVID19 restrictions can cause future inflation, as households tilt their expenditure toward the future.Reduced InequalitiesCOVID19Fiscal policyFirm exitSpending multipliersInequalityEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5tt3b7k1articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6w07w4qc2023-08-28T13:16:39Zqt6w07w4qcThe illusion of stable fertility preferencesMüller, Maximilian WHamory, JoanJohnson-Hanks, JenniferMiguel, Edward2022-05-04Fertility preferences have long played a key role in models of fertility differentials and change. We examine the stability of preferences over time using rich panel data on Kenyan women's fertility desires, expectations, actual fertility, and recall of desires in three waves over a nine-year period, when respondents were in their 20s. We find that although desired fertility is quite unstable, most women perceive their desires to be stable. Under hypothetical future scenarios, few expect their desired fertility to increase over time but, in fact, such increases in fertility desires are common. Moreover, when asked to recall past desires, most respondents report previously wanting exactly as many children as they desire today. These patterns of bias are consistent with the emerging view that fertility desires are contextual, emotionally laden, and structured by identity.Contraception/ReproductionChildFemaleFertilityHumansIllusionsKenyastability of preferencesfertility preferencesrecallpanel dataDemographyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6w07w4qcarticlePopulation Studies, vol 76, iss 2169 - 189oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0gs8j9532023-08-28T06:37:04Zqt0gs8j953Culture, institutions and democratization*Gorodnichenko, YuriyRoland, Gerard2021-04-01We construct a model of revolution and transition to democracy under individualistic and collectivist cultures. The main result is that, despite facing potentially more challenging collective action problems, countries with individualistic cultures are more likely to end up adopting democracy earlier than countries with collectivist cultures. Our empirical analysis suggests a strong and robust association between individualistic cultures and average polity scores and durations of democracy, even after controlling for other determinants of democracy emphasized in the literature. We provide evidence that countries with collectivist cultures also are more likely to experience autocratic breakdowns and transitions from autocracy to autocracy.CultureIndividualismCollectivismDemocratizationCollective actionH1P48Z1collective actioncollectivismculturedemocratizationindividualismApplied EconomicsPolitical ScienceEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0gs8j953articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4b93f59b2023-08-21T11:36:56Zqt4b93f59bThe effects of the COVID pandemic on the federal budget outlookAuerbach, Alan JGale, William2020-10-01We examine the impact of COVID-19 on the federal budget outlook. We find substantial but temporary effects on spending and revenues, with more moderate but permanent effects on the long-term projections. We project that the debt-to-GDP ratio, currently 98%, will rise to 190% in 2050 under current law, compared to a CBO pre-COVID projection of 180%. Sharply lower interest rates projected for the next dozen years help moderate future debt accumulation. Under a "current policy" projection that allows temporary tax provisions-such as those in the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017-to be made permanent, the debt-to-GDP ratio would rise to 222% by 2050 and would continuing rising thereafter. The long-term projections are sensitive to interest rates. We discuss several aspects of these results, including how the current episode compares to past debt changes, the role of historically low interest rates, and the role of recent Federal Reserve Board policies and actions. Because of the macro-stabilization effects of fiscal tightening, and because low interest rates create "breathing room" for fiscal policy, we do not see the large, short-run debt accumulation resulting from the current pandemic as necessitating any immediate offsetting response. But the long-term projections show that significant fiscal imbalances remain and will eventually require attention.Budget outlookCOVIDFiscal policyApplied EconomicsEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4b93f59barticleBusiness Economics, vol 55, iss 4202 - 212oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7np4511v2023-08-21T11:34:37Zqt7np4511vForward Guidance and Household ExpectationsCoibion, OlivierGeorgarakos, DimitrisGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2023-01-01Abstract:
We compare causal effects of forward guidance about future interest rates on households’ expectations of inflation and nominal mortgage rates to the effects of communication about inflation in a randomized control trial using more than 20,000 U.S. consumers in the Nielsen Homescan Panel. We elicit consumers’ expectations, and then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current, and/or future interest rates and inflation. Information treatments about current or future interest rates all have similar and offsetting effects on interest rate and inflation expectations, yielding limited pass-through into perceived real rates. Information about mortgage rates has much more powerful effects on interest rate perceptions, with no offsetting effects on inflation expectations, thereby delivering much larger changes in perceived real rates. Revisions in perceived real rates causally lead to changes in the ex-post purchases of durable goods by households.Clinical ResearchClinical Trials and Supportive Activitiesexpectations managementinflation expectationssurveyscommunicationrandomized controlled trialEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7np4511varticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt66g865z02023-08-20T00:28:40Zqt66g865z0Gender roles produce divergent economic expectationsD’Acunto, FrancescoMalmendier, UlrikeWeber, Michael2021-05-25Expectations about economic variables vary systematically across genders. In the domain of inflation, women have persistently higher expectations than men. We argue that traditional gender roles are a significant factor in generating this gender expectations gap as they expose women and men to different economic signals in their daily lives. Using unique data on the participation of men and women in household grocery chores, their resulting exposure to price signals, and their inflation expectations, we document a tight link between the gender expectations gap and the distribution of grocery shopping duties. Because grocery prices are highly volatile, and consumers focus disproportionally on positive price changes, frequent exposure to grocery prices increases perceptions of current inflation and expectations of future inflation. The gender expectations gap is largest in households whose female heads are solely responsible for grocery shopping, whereas no gap arises in households that split grocery chores equally between men and women. Our results indicate that gender differences in inflation expectations arise due to social conditioning rather than through differences in innate abilities, skills, or preferences.Gender EqualityActivities of Daily LivingAdolescentAdultEconomicsBehavioralFamily CharacteristicsFemaleGender RoleHumansMaleMiddle AgedMotivationSex FactorsYoung Adultgender rolesexpectationsperceptionsexperiencessocial conditioningapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/66g865z0articleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol 118, iss 21e2008534118oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1mv5691c2023-08-19T16:56:22Zqt1mv5691cTwenty-year economic impacts of dewormingHamory, JoanMiguel, EdwardWalker, MichaelKremer, MichaelBaird, Sarah2021-04-06Estimating the impact of child health investments on adult living standards entails multiple methodological challenges, including the lack of experimental variation in health status, an inability to track individuals over time, and accurately measuring living standards and productivity in low-income settings. This study exploits a randomized school health intervention that provided deworming treatment to Kenyan children, and uses longitudinal data to estimate impacts on economic outcomes up to 20 y later. The effective respondent tracking rate was 84%. Individuals who received two to three additional years of childhood deworming experienced a 14% gain in consumption expenditures and 13% increase in hourly earnings. There are also shifts in sectors of residence and employment: treatment group individuals are 9% more likely to live in urban areas, and experience a 9% increase in nonagricultural work hours. Most effects are concentrated among males and older individuals. The observed consumption and earnings benefits, together with deworming's low cost when distributed at scale, imply that a conservative estimate of its annualized social internal rate of return is 37%, a high return by any standard.Behavioral and Social SciencePediatricClinical ResearchAdolescentAdultAnthelminticsChildChild HealthCost of IllnessDrug UtilizationEmploymentHelminthiasisHumansIncomeKenyadewormingchild healthlong-run impactsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1mv5691carticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol 118, iss 14e2023185118oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9tv8s2rw2023-08-19T05:31:36Zqt9tv8s2rwAn Empirical Analysis of Primary and Secondary Pharmaceutical Patents in ChileAbud, María JoséHall, BronwynHelmers, ChristianEspinoza-Fonseca, L Michel2015-01-01We analyze the patent filing strategies of foreign pharmaceutical companies in Chile distinguishing between "primary" (active ingredient) and "secondary" patents (patents on modified compounds, formulations, dosages, particular medical uses, etc.). There is prior evidence that secondary patents are used by pharmaceutical originator companies in the U.S. and Europe to extend patent protection on drugs in length and breadth. Using a novel dataset that comprises all drugs registered in Chile between 1991 and 2010 as well as the corresponding patents and trademarks, we find evidence that foreign originator companies pursue similar strategies in Chile. We find a primary to secondary patents ratio of 1:4 at the drug-level, which is comparable to the available evidence for Europe; most secondary patents are filed over several years following the original primary patent and after the protected active ingredient has obtained market approval in Chile. This points toward effective patent term extensions through secondary patents. Secondary patents dominate "older" therapeutic classes like anti-ulcer and anti-depressants. In contrast, newer areas like anti-virals and anti-neoplastics (anti-cancer) have a much larger share of primary patents.Development of treatments and therapeutic interventions5.1 PharmaceuticalsChemistryPharmaceuticalChileDrug IndustryHumansPatents as TopicPharmaceutical PreparationsGeneral Science & Technologyapplication/pdfCC-BY-NC-SAeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9tv8s2rwarticlePLOS ONE, vol 10, iss 4e0124257oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3vx877302023-08-18T01:43:13Zqt3vx87730A study of the impact of data sharing on article citations using journal policies as a natural experimentChristensen, GarretDafoe, AllanMiguel, EdwardMoore, Don ARose, Andrew KNaudet, Florian2019-01-01This study estimates the effect of data sharing on the citations of academic articles, using journal policies as a natural experiment. We begin by examining 17 high-impact journals that have adopted the requirement that data from published articles be publicly posted. We match these 17 journals to 13 journals without policy changes and find that empirical articles published just before their change in editorial policy have citation rates with no statistically significant difference from those published shortly after the shift. We then ask whether this null result stems from poor compliance with data sharing policies, and use the data sharing policy changes as instrumental variables to examine more closely two leading journals in economics and political science with relatively strong enforcement of new data policies. We find that articles that make their data available receive 97 additional citations (estimate standard error of 34). We conclude that: a) authors who share data may be rewarded eventually with additional scholarly citations, and b) data-posting policies alone do not increase the impact of articles published in a journal unless those policies are enforced.Cancer8.3 Policyethicsand research governanceHealth and social care services researchQuality EducationEditorial PoliciesHumansInformation DisseminationPoliticsPublishingSocial ProblemsGeneral Science & Technologyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3vx87730articlePLOS ONE, vol 14, iss 12e0225883oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3rw6w0b92023-08-18T00:04:30Zqt3rw6w0b9How the Growing Gap in Life Expectancy May Affect Retirement Benefits and ReformsAuerbach, Alan JCharles, Kerwin KCoile, Courtney CGale, WilliamGoldman, DanaLee, RonaldLucas, Charles MOrszag, Peter RSheiner, Louise MTysinger, BryanWeil, David NWolfers, JustinWong, Rebeca2017-07-01Older Americans have experienced dramatic gains in life expectancy in recent decades, but an emerging literature reveals that these gains are accumulating mostly to those at the top of the income distribution. We explore how growing inequality in life expectancy affects lifetime benefits from Social Security, Medicare, and other programs and how this phenomenon interacts with possible program reforms. We first project that life expectancy at age 50 for males in the two highest income quintiles will rise by 7 to 8 years between the 1930 and 1960 birth cohorts, but that the two lowest income quintiles will experience little to no increase over that time period. This divergence in life expectancy will cause the gap between average lifetime program benefits received by men in the highest and lowest quintiles to widen by $130,000 (in $2009) over this period. Finally we simulate the effect of Social Security reforms such as raising the normal retirement age and changing the benefit formula to see whether they mitigate or enhance the reduced progressivity resulting from the widening gap in life expectancy.AgingGeneric health relevanceGood Health and Well Beingdemographic trendsinequalitygovernment expendituressocial securityApplied EconomicsBankingFinance and InvestmentFinanceapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3rw6w0b9articleThe Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, vol 42, iss 3475 - 499oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1rm9t4782023-08-17T17:51:03Zqt1rm9t478Revenge of the experts: Will COVID-19 renew or diminish public trust in science?Eichengreen, BarryAksoy, Cevat GiraySaka, Orkun2021-01-01It is sometimes said that an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be heightened appreciation of the importance of scientific research and expertise. We test this hypothesis by examining how exposure to previous epidemics affected trust in science and scientists. Building on the "impressionable years hypothesis" that attitudes are durably formed during the ages 18-25, we focus on individuals exposed to epidemics in their country of residence at this particular stage of the life course. Combining data from a 2018 Wellcome Trust survey of more than 75,000 individuals in 138 countries with data on global epidemics since 1970, we show that such exposure has no impact on views of science as an endeavor but that it significantly reduces trust in scientists and in the benefits of their work. We also illustrate that the decline in trust is driven by the individuals with little previous training in science subjects. Finally, our evidence suggests that epidemic-induced distrust translates into lower compliance with health-related policies in the form of negative views towards vaccines and lower rates of child vaccination.Vaccine RelatedImmunizationClinical ResearchInfectionGood Health and Well BeingEpidemicsTrustScientistsImpressionable yearsCOVID-19epidemicstrustsciencescientistEconomic TheoryApplied EconomicsEconometricsEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1rm9t478articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5q0490v12023-08-13T02:01:55Zqt5q0490v1Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized WorldAuerbach, Alan JGorodnichenko, Yuriy2016-05-01Although theoretical models consistently predict that government spending shocks should lead to appreciation of the domestic currency, empirical studies have regularly found depreciation. Using daily data on U.S. defense spending (announced and actual payments), the paper documents that the dollar immediately and strongly appreciates after announcements about future government spending. In contrast, actual payments lead to no discernible effect on the exchange rate. It examines the responses of other variables at the daily frequency and explores how the response of the exchange rate to fiscal shocks varies over the business cycle as well as at the zero lower bound and in normal times.E62F41Applied EconomicsBankingFinance and InvestmentEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5q0490v1articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1qj0m1fb2023-08-08T19:58:16Zqt1qj0m1fbEffects of Fiscal Policy on Credit MarketsAuerbach, Alan JGorodnichenko, YuriyMurphy, Daniel2020-05-01Credit markets typically freeze in recessions: access to credit declines, and the cost of credit increases. A conventional policy response is to rely on monetary tools to saturate financial markets with liquidity. Given limited space for monetary policy in the current economic conditions, we study how fiscal stimulus can influence local credit markets. Using rich geographical variation in US federal government contracts, we document that, in a local economy, interest rates on consumer loans decrease in response to an expansionary government spending shock.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1qj0m1fbarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7416d3x82023-08-08T19:09:58Zqt7416d3x8Local regression distribution estimatorsCattaneo, Matias DJansson, MichaelMa, Xinwei2021-03-01StatisticsApplied EconomicsEconometricsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7416d3x8articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt07w203462023-08-06T02:20:08Zqt07w20346Methodological approaches in economics and anthropologyBardhan, PRay, I2015-01-01Economics and anthropology are often seen as extremes along the social science continuum, and the methodological differences between them have rendered interdisciplinary work especially challenging. Our goal in this chapter is not to ‘resolve’ these methodological divides, but to understand what is important to each discipline, and see the divides in the light of that understanding. There are some foundational dichotomies that broadly divide mainstream economists from mainstream social and cultural anthropologists, and in this chapter we explore the role of these dichotomies.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/07w20346chapteroai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt65h294q82023-08-05T02:49:43Zqt65h294q8How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control TrialCoibion, OlivierGeorgarakos, DimitrisGorodnichenko, Yuriyvan Rooij, Maarten2023-07-01We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exog-enously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect consumption decisions. The causal effects of reduced inflation expectations on nondurable spending are imprecisely estimated, but there is a sharp positive effect on durable spending. This is likely driven by the fact that Dutch households seem to become more optimistic about their real income and aggregate spending when they decrease their inflation expectations. We find little role for cognitive or financial constraints in explaining spending responses. (JEL C83, D12, D83, D84, E21, E31)Agingsurvey datainflation expectationshouseholdsdurable and non-durable consumptionrandomized control trialEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/65h294q8articleAmerican Economic Journal Macroeconomics, vol 15, iss 3109 - 152oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8q7803ph2023-08-05T00:03:45Zqt8q7803phThe Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMS: How Tying Odysseus to the Mast Avoided the Sirens but Led Him to CharybdisCorsetti, GiancarloEichengreen, BarryHale, GalinaTallman, Eric2023-08-04publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8q7803pharticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7tx7f2xw2023-08-04T17:17:37Zqt7tx7f2xwThe Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMS: How Tying Odysseus to the Mast Avoided the Sirens but Led Him to CharybdisCorsetti, GiancarloEichengreen, BarryHale, GalinaTallman, Eric2020-04-01Why was recovery from the euro area crisis delayed for a decade? The explanation lies in the absence of credible and timely policies to backstop financial intermediaries and sovereign debt markets. In this paper we add light and color to this analysis, contrasting recent experience with the 1992–3 crisis in the European Monetary System, when national central banks and treasuries more successfully provided this backstop. In the more recent episode, the incomplete development of the euro area constrained the ability of the ECB and other European institutions to do likewise.Financial crisisCurrency crisisEuroEuropean Monetary SystemEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7tx7f2xwarticleOpen Economies Review, vol 31, iss 2219 - 236oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8rk7w2nk2023-08-04T17:17:33Zqt8rk7w2nkThe Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMSCorsetti, GiancarloEichengreen, BarryHale, GalinaTallmann, Eric2019-02-01BackstopCurrency devaluationfinancial crisesSovereign and banking riskpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8rk7w2nkarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt55h6h8082023-08-02T15:49:41Zqt55h6h808Can Variation in Subgroups' Average Treatment Effects Explain Treatment Effect Heterogeneity? Evidence from a Social ExperimentBitler, Marianne PGelbach, Jonah BHoynes, Hilary W2017-10-01We assess whether welfare reform affects earnings only through mean impacts that are constant within but vary across subgroups. This is important because researchers interested in treatment effect heterogeneity typically focus on estimating mean impacts that only vary across subgroups. Using a novel approach to simulating treatment group earnings under the constant mean impacts within subgroup model, we find this model does a poor job of capturing treatment effect heterogeneity for Connecticut's Jobs First welfare reform experiment. Notably, ignoring within-group heterogeneitywould lead one to miss evidence that treatment effects are consistent with basic labor supply theory.Applied EconomicsEconometricsEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/55h6h808articleThe Review of Economics and Statistics, vol 99, iss 4683 - 697oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8q40978f2023-07-03T15:57:06Zqt8q40978fDistributional Effects of a School Voucher Program: Evidence from New York CityBitler, Marianne PDomina, ThurstonPenner, Emily KHoynes, Hilary W2013-08-01We use quantile treatment effects estimation to examine the consequences of a school voucher experiment across the distribution of student achievement. In 1997, the School Choice Scholarship Foundation granted $1,400 private school vouchers to a randomly-selected group of low-income New York City elementary school students. Prior research indicates that this program had no average effect on student achievement. If vouchers boost achievement at one part of the distribution and hurt achievement at another, zero or small mean effects may obscure theoretically important but offsetting program effects. Drawing upon prior research related to Catholic schools and school choice, we derive three hypotheses regarding the program’s distributional consequences. Our analyses suggest that the program had no significant effect at any point in the skill distribution.I2application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8q40978farticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0xv641jh2023-06-24T22:46:24Zqt0xv641jhPropagation and smoothing of shocks in alternative social security systemsAuerbach, AlanKueng, LorenzLee, RonaldYatsynovich, Yury2018-08-01Even with well-developed capital markets, there is no private market mechanism for trading between current and future generations. This generates a potential role for public old-age pension systems to spread economic and demographic shocks among different generations. This paper evaluates how different systems smooth and propagate shocks to productivity, fertility, mortality and migration in a realistic OLG model. We use reductions in the variance of wealth equivalents to measure performance, starting with the existing U.S. system as a unifying framework, in which we vary how much taxes and benefits adjust, and which we then compare to the existing German and Swedish systems. We find that system design and shock type are key factors. The German system and the benefit-adjustment-only U.S. system best smooth productivity shocks, which are by far the most important shocks. Overall, the German system performs best, while the Swedish system, which includes a buffer stock to relax annual budget constraints, performs rather poorly. Focusing on the U.S. system, reliance solely on tax adjustment fares best for mortality and migration shocks, while equal reliance on tax and benefit adjustments is best for fertility shocks.Good Health and Well BeingNotional defined contribution systemsPay-as-you-go systemsGenerational incidenceEconomic TheoryApplied EconomicsEconometricsEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xv641jharticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt22d8g11r2023-06-24T20:29:01Zqt22d8g11rInvestment in child and adolescent health and development: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd Edition.Bundy, Donald APde Silva, NilanthiHorton, SusanPatton, George CSchultz, LindaJamison, Dean TDisease Control Priorities-3 Child and Adolescent Health and Development Authors Group2018-02-01The realisation of human potential for development requires age-specific investment throughout the 8000 days of childhood and adolescence. Focus on the first 1000 days is an essential but insufficient investment. Intervention is also required in three later phases: the middle childhood growth and consolidation phase (5-9 years), when infection and malnutrition constrain growth, and mortality is higher than previously recognised; the adolescent growth spurt (10-14 years), when substantial changes place commensurate demands on good diet and health; and the adolescent phase of growth and consolidation (15-19 years), when new responses are needed to support brain maturation, intense social engagement, and emotional control. Two cost-efficient packages, one delivered through schools and one focusing on later adolescence, would provide phase-specific support across the life cycle, securing the gains of investment in the first 1000 days, enabling substantial catch-up from early growth failure, and leveraging improved learning from concomitant education investments.Disease Control Priorities-3 Child and Adolescent Health and Development Authors GroupHumansAdolescent DevelopmentChild DevelopmentAdolescentChildPreventive Health ServicesCost-Benefit AnalysisDelivery of Health CareAdolescent HealthChild HealthPediatricBehavioral and Social ScienceBasic Behavioral and Social ScienceZero HungerGood Health and Well BeingMedical and Health SciencesGeneral & Internal MedicinepubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/22d8g11rarticleLancet (London, England), vol 391, iss 10121687 - 699oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0285t6t52023-06-24T20:28:55Zqt0285t6t5How Strong Are Ethnic Preferences?Berge, Lars Ivar OppedalBjorvatn, KjetilGalle, SimonMiguel, EdwardPosner, Daniel NTungodden, BertilZhang, Kelly2015-11-04application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0285t6t5articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt93g544902023-06-04T19:22:44Zqt93g54490No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectationsAndrade, PhilippeCoibion, OlivierGautier, ErwanGorodnichenko, Yuriy2022-01-01Using a survey of French manufacturing firms, we study how firms’ expectations and actions are affected by both aggregate and industry-specific conditions. In response to industry-level shocks that have no aggregate effects, firms’ aggregate expectations respond persistently. This is consistent with “island” models in which firms use the local prices they observe to make inferences about broader aggregate conditions. These patterns are related to observable characteristics of firms and the industries in which they reside. Finally, we extend the analysis to firms’ expectations over their own future price changes and document how these respond to both industry and aggregate variation.IndustryInnovation and InfrastructureExpectationsRational inattentionInflationEconomic TheoryApplied EconomicsEconometricsEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/93g54490articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4g87t7z32023-06-04T18:24:35Zqt4g87t7z3Reply to WhiteheadDesvousges, William HMathews, Kristy ETrain, Kenneth E2020-11-01Environmental Science and ManagementApplied EconomicsOther EconomicsAgricultural Economics & Policyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4g87t7z3articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0r16570h2023-06-04T06:14:07Zqt0r16570hThe Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential OutputCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyUlate, Mauricio2018-01-01The fact that declines in output since the Great Recession have been parlayed into equivalent declines in measures of potential output is commonly interpreted as implying that output will not return to previous trends. We show that real-time estimates of potential output for the United States and other countries respond gradually and similarly to both transitory and permanent shocks to output. Observing revisions in measures of potential output therefore tells us little about whether changes in actual output will be permanent. Some alternative methodologies to estimate potential output can avoid these shortcomings. These approaches suggest a much more limited decline in potential output since the Great Recession.Applied EconomicsEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0r16570harticleBrookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol 2018, iss 2343 - 441oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8v11p2142023-06-04T05:24:23Zqt8v11p214Conference presentations and academic publishingGorodnichenko, YuriyPham, ThoTalavera, Oleksandr2021-02-01This study contributes to the existing literature on the impact of conference presentations on career progression by quantifying the predictive power of conferences for publication success. Examining outcomes for more than 4000 papers presented at three leading economics conferences over the 2006–2012 period, we find a positive link between conference presentations and the publishing probability in high-quality journals. This impact is most profound for prominent authors and male authors. In contrast, lesser known authors and female authors appear to gain less from conferences. Additionally, participating in major conferences is also associated with improved metrics for other measures of academic success such as the number of citations or abstract views. Further examination shows that annual meetings of the American Economic Association are particularly valuable in these dimensions.ConferencesPublishing outcomesResearch visibilityProfessional developmentGender effectsDiscriminationI23O39conferencespublishing outcomesresearch visibilityprofessional developmentgender effectsApplied EconomicsEconometricsBankingFinance and InvestmentEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8v11p214articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9vt997qn2023-06-04T02:47:22Zqt9vt997qnSimple Local Polynomial Density EstimatorsCattaneo, Matias DJansson, MichaelMa, Xinwei2020-07-02This article introduces an intuitive and easy-to-implement nonparametric density estimator based on local polynomial techniques. The estimator is fully boundary adaptive and automatic, but does not require prebinning or any other transformation of the data. We study the main asymptotic properties of the estimator, and use these results to provide principled estimation, inference, and bandwidth selection methods. As a substantive application of our results, we develop a novel discontinuity in density testing procedure, an important problem in regression discontinuity designs and other program evaluation settings. An illustrative empirical application is given. Two companion Stata and R software packages are provided.Density estimationLocal polynomial methodsManipulation testRegression discontinuityStatisticsEconometricsDemographyStatistics & ProbabilitypubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9vt997qnarticleJournal of the American Statistical Association, vol 115, iss 5311449 - 1455oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt33t5v0fx2023-06-03T23:01:35Zqt33t5v0fxCompetition, Mergers, and R&D DiversityGilbert, Richard J2019-05-01This paper describes a model of research and development (R&D) investment in which firms can choose any number of R&D projects that have independent and identical probabilities of success. The measure of R&D diversity is the number of projects that are undertaken by the industry. Absent spillovers or profits at risk from innovation, mergers often—but not always—decrease R&D diversity; however, the incremental effects decline rapidly with the number of industry rivals. Mergers can have significant adverse effects if the merging firms have large profits that are at risk from an innovation. A merger can promote investment in R&D and increase expected consumer surplus if discoveries have sufficiently large information spillovers.IndustryInnovation and InfrastructureCompetitionInnovationOligopolyMergersResearch and developmentApplied EconomicsEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/33t5v0fxarticleReview of Industrial Organization, vol 54, iss 3465 - 484oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8vv381jt2023-06-03T21:13:04Zqt8vv381jtSpectrum Concentration and Performance of the U.S. Wireless IndustryWoroch, Glenn A2020-02-01This paper estimates the empirical relationship between concentration in mobile carriers’ holdings of radio spectrum and the performance of the U.S. wireless industry. Reduced-form regressions that use a 2012–2013 cross-section of approximately 700 Cellular Market Areas reveal a robust inverted-U relationship between spectrum HHIs and subscriber penetration rates—a measure of consumer welfare. The marginal effect of spectrum concentration is positive throughout the range of sampled markets—contrary to the conventional concentration-performance hypothesis. This pattern persists when spectrum concentration is separately measured for bands below 1 GHz and for rural areas. It is also shown not to be biased by the potential endogeneity of spectrum HHIs. This paper is distinguished by relating subscriber penetration rates to the quality and coverage of operator networks that supports efficiency explanations for operator size, and hence the benefits of structural concentration. These findings cast doubt on federal policies adopted as early as the 1927 Radio Act that attempt to equalize ownership of spectrum. Instead, our empirical results recommend measures that promote investment in wireless infrastructure and other non-spectrum factors.IndustryInnovation and InfrastructureSpectrum concentrationIndustry performanceMobile wireless servicesApplied EconomicsEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8vv381jtarticleReview of Industrial Organization, vol 56, iss 173 - 105oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt88f0t0rf2023-06-03T20:00:43Zqt88f0t0rfLocal Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the USAAuerbach, AlanGorodnichenko, YuriyMurphy, Daniel2020-03-01We estimate local fiscal multipliers and spillovers for the USA using a rich dataset based on the US Department of Defense contracts and a variety of outcome variables relating to income and employment. We find strong positive spillovers across locations and industries. Both backward linkages and general equilibrium effects (e.g., income multipliers) contribute to the positive spillovers. Geographical spillovers appear to dissipate fairly quickly with distance. Our evidence points to the relevance of Keynesian-type models that feature excess capacity.E62H5Applied EconomicsBankingFinance and InvestmentEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/88f0t0rfarticleIMF Economic Review, vol 68, iss 1195 - 229oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4mm3j8qb2023-06-03T19:57:30Zqt4mm3j8qbIncorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change ImpactsBurke, MarshallDykema, JohnLobell, David BMiguel, EdwardSatyanath, Shanker2015-05-01Quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on economic outcomes are important for public policy. We show that the vast majority of estimates fail to account for well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, leading to potentially misleading projections. We reexamine seven well-cited studies and show that accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much larger range of projected climate impacts and a greater likelihood of worst-case outcomes, an important policy parameter. Incorporating climate uncertainty into future economic impact assessments will be critical for providing the best possible information on potential impacts.Climate-Related Exposures and ConditionsGeneric health relevanceClimate ActionApplied EconomicsEconometricsEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4mm3j8qbarticleThe Review of Economics and Statistics, vol 97, iss 2461 - 471oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6rp7p9gs2023-06-03T02:37:01Zqt6rp7p9gsInference in Linear Regression Models with Many Covariates and HeteroscedasticityCattaneo, Matias DJansson, MichaelNewey, Whitney K2018-07-03The linear regression model is widely used in empirical work in economics, statistics, and many other disciplines. Researchers often include many covariates in their linear model specification in an attempt to control for confounders. We give inference methods that allow for many covariates and heteroscedasticity. Our results are obtained using high-dimensional approximations, where the number of included covariates is allowed to grow as fast as the sample size. We find that all of the usual versions of Eicker–White heteroscedasticity consistent standard error estimators for linear models are inconsistent under this asymptotics. We then propose a new heteroscedasticity consistent standard error formula that is fully automatic and robust to both (conditional) heteroscedasticity of unknown form and the inclusion of possibly many covariates. We apply our findings to three settings: parametric linear models with many covariates, linear panel models with many fixed effects, and semiparametric semi-linear models with many technical regressors. Simulation evidence consistent with our theoretical results is provided, and the proposed methods are also illustrated with an empirical application. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.HeteroscedasticityHigh-dimensional modelsLinear regressionMany regressorsStandard errorsStatisticsEconometricsDemographyStatistics & Probabilityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6rp7p9gsarticleJournal of the American Statistical Association, vol 113, iss 5231350 - 1361oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7510h6fw2023-06-03T01:34:27Zqt7510h6fwThe responses of internet retail prices to aggregate shocks: A high-frequency approachGorodnichenko, YuriySheremirov, ViacheslavTalavera, Oleksandr2018-03-01Using a unique dataset of daily price listings and the associated number of clicks for precisely defined goods from a major shopping platform, we examine whether internet prices respond to aggregate shocks at a high frequency. We find little evidence that online prices respond promptly to unanticipated announcements about macroeconomic activity. Shopping activity also appears unresponsive to aggregate shocks, suggesting that internet retailers may follow individual demand for their products more closely than aggregate demand.Online marketsPrice stickinessAggregate shocksHigh-frequency approachE3EconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7510h6fwarticleEconomics Letters, vol 164, iss C124 - 127oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt95t1d5jt2023-06-03T01:07:09Zqt95t1d5jtThe US Gains From Trade: Valuation Using the Demand for Foreign Factor ServicesCostinot, ArnaudRodríguez-Clare, Andrés2018-05-01About eight cents out of every dollar spent in the United States is spent on imports. What if, because of a wall or some other extreme policy intervention, imports were to remain on the other side of the US border? How much would US consumers be willing to pay to prevent this hypothetical policy change from taking place? The answer to this question represents the welfare cost from autarky or, equivalently, the welfare gains from trade. In this article, we discuss how to evaluate these gains using estimates of the demand for foreign factor services.Clinical ResearchF11F13F14F43EconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/95t1d5jtarticleJournal of Economic Perspectives, vol 32, iss 23 - 24oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt46r1z12r2023-06-02T20:55:11Zqt46r1z12rLevel and volatility factors in macroeconomic dataGorodnichenko, YuriyNg, Serena2017-11-01Macroeconomic models typically focus on innovations in the level of fundamentals as driver of business cycles because modeling of volatility can be demanding. This paper suggests a simple methodology that can separate the level from the volatility factors without directly estimating the volatility processes. This is made possible by exploiting features in the second order approximation of equilibrium models and using information in a large panel of data to estimate the factors. Augmenting the factors to a VAR shed light on the effects of the level and volatility shocks and their relative importance.VolatilityBusiness cycle fluctuationsCommon factorsRobust principal componentsC3C5E3E4Economic TheoryApplied EconomicsEconometricsEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/46r1z12rarticleJournal of Monetary Economics, vol 91, iss C52 - 68oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt52s7p2cx2023-06-02T14:05:23Zqt52s7p2cxDo foreign investment and trade spur innovation?Gorodnichenko, YuriySvejnar, JanTerrell, Katherine2020-01-01Using large firm-level and industry-level data sets from eighteen countries, we find that foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade have positive spillover effects on product and technology innovation by domestic firms in emerging markets. The FDI effect is more pronounced for firms from advanced economies. However, while we detect the spillover effects with micro data at the firm-level, when we use linkage variables computed from input-output tables at the industry level we find much weaker, and usually insignificant, effects. These patterns are important for policy, suggesting that spillovers are localized to firms engaged directly with multinationals and in trade, rather than affecting all domestic firms in industries with FDI presence.IndustryInnovation and InfrastructureEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/52s7p2cxarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8h3182xb2023-06-02T10:47:40Zqt8h3182xbThe Safe Assets Shortage ConundrumCaballero, Ricardo JFarhi, EmmanuelGourinchas, Pierre-Olivier2017-08-01A safe asset is a simple debt instrument that is expected to preserve its value during adverse systemic events. The supply of safe assets, private and public, has historically been concentrated in a small number of advanced economies, most prominently the United States. Over the last few decades, with minor cyclical interruptions, the supply of safe assets has not kept up with global demand. The reason is straightforward: the collective growth rate of the advanced economies that produce safe assets has been lower than the world's growth rate, which has been driven disproportionately by the high growth rate of high-saving emerging economies such as China. The signature of this growing shortage is a steady increase in the price of safe assets; equivalently, global safe interest rates must decline, as has been the case since the 1980s. The early literature, brought to light by Ben Bernanke's famous “savings glut” speech of 2005, focused on a general shortage of assets without isolating its safe asset component. The distinction, however, has become increasingly important over time, particularly in the aftermath of the subprime mortgage crisis and its sequels. We begin by describing the main facts and macroeconomic implications of safe asset shortages. Faced with such a structural conundrum, what are the likely short- to medium-term escape valves? We analyze four of them, each with its own macroeconomic and financial trade-offs.Decent Work and Economic GrowthEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8h3182xbarticleJournal of Economic Perspectives, vol 31, iss 329 - 46oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7jp5v5nz2023-06-02T10:15:50Zqt7jp5v5nzFrom universal service to universal connectivityMacher, Jeffrey TMayo, John WUkhaneva, OlgaWoroch, Glenn A2017-08-01Two features of the century-old policy goal of promoting universal telephone service in the United States have been enduring. Policymakers have focused on (1) wireline telephone (and more recently, fixed-line broadband) services and (2) households. The widespread adoption of mobile telephones compels a fresh examination of this focus. We construct a new measure of universal connectivity which accounts for consumers’ choices of communications technologies and for their geographic mobility over the course of the day. This measure, in turn, compels a conceptual and empirical investigation of the determinants of mobile telephone diffusion within families. Our estimations of intra-household demand for mobile service permit us to develop simulations that estimate the economic impact of modernizing a key element of existing universal service policy (viz., the Lifeline Program) to reflect the goal of improving individual connectivity. We find that a policy expansion from a single subsidy per household to multiple subsidies per eligible household members would increase mobile subscriptions by 2.25 million and Lifeline costs by $250 million.Clinical ResearchConsumer demandUniversal serviceFixedMobileApplied EconomicsBankingFinance and InvestmentEconomicsapplication/pdfCC-BY-NC-NDeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7jp5v5nzarticleJournal of Regulatory Economics, vol 52, iss 177 - 104oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2cg7m1gf2023-06-02T06:25:36Zqt2cg7m1gfThe Analytics of the Greek CrisisGourinchas, Pierre-OlivierPhilippon, ThomasVayanos, Dimitri2017-01-01We provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the Greek crisis of 2010. We first benchmark the crisis against all episodes of sudden stops, sovereign debt crises, and lending booms/busts in emerging and advanced economies since 1980. The decline in Greece’s output, especially investment, is deeper and more persistent than in almost any crisis on record over that period. We then propose a stylized macrofinance model to understand what happened. We find that a severe macroeconomiCadjustment was inevitable given the size of the fiscal imbalance; yet, a sizable share of the crisis was also the consequence of the sudden stop that started in late 2009. Our model suggests that the size of the initial macro/financial imbalances can account for muchof the depthof the crisis. When we simulate an emerging-market sudden stop withinitial debt levels (government, private, and external) of an advanced economy, we obtain a Greek crisis. Finally, in recent years, the lack of recovery appears driven by elevated levels of nonperforming loans and strong price rigidities in product markets.Economic TheoryEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2cg7m1gfarticleNBER Macroeconomics Annual, vol 31, iss 11 - 81oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt31x181132023-06-02T00:56:32Zqt31x18113When bonds matter: Home bias in goods and assetsCoeurdacier, NicolasGourinchas, Pierre-Olivier2016-09-01This paper presents a model of international portfolios with real exchange rate and non-financial risks that account for observed levels of equity home bias. Bonds matter: in equilibrium, investors structure their bond portfolio to hedge real exchange rate risks. Equity home bias arises when non-financial income risk is negatively correlated with equity returns, after controlling for bond returns. Our framework allows us to derive equilibrium bond and equity portfolios in terms of directly measurable hedge ratios. An empirical application to G-7 countries finds strong empirical support for the theory. We are able to account for a significant share of the equity home bias and obtain an aggregate currency exposure of bond portfolios comparable to the data.International risk sharingInternational portfoliosEquity home biasF30F41G11Home equity bias
X-PublishedAs-Type: report
X-PublishedAs-Year: 2009Economic TheoryApplied EconomicsEconometricsEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/31x18113articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7kb5b5dw2023-06-01T20:52:46Zqt7kb5b5dwTax Policy toward Low-Income FamiliesHoynes, HilaryRothstein, Jesse2017-04-27application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7kb5b5dwarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt24r2j30b2023-06-01T12:30:22Zqt24r2j30bThe Measurement of Student Ability in Modern Assessment SystemsJacob, BrianRothstein, Jesse2016-08-01Economicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/24r2j30barticleJournal of Economic Perspectives, vol 30, iss 385 - 108oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3gj3r8td2023-06-01T07:38:01Zqt3gj3r8tdBeyond Income: What Else Predicts Very Low Food Security Among Children?Anderson, Patricia MButcher, Kristin FHoynes, Hilary WSchanzenbach, Diane Whitmore2016-04-01We examine characteristics and correlates of households in the United States that are most likely to have children at risk of inadequate nutrition - those that report very low food security (VLFS) among their children. Using 11 years of the Current Population Survey, plus data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we describe these households in great detail with the goal of trying to understand how these households differ from households without such severe food insecurity. While household income certainly plays an important role in determining VLFS among children, we find that even after flexibly controlling for income-to-poverty rates some household characteristics and patterns of program participation have important additional explanatory power. Finally, our examination of the NHANES data suggests an important role for both mental and physical health of adults in the household in determining the food security status of children.PediatricBasic Behavioral and Social ScienceNutritionBehavioral and Social Science2.3 Psychologicalsocial and economic factorsAetiologyUnderpinning research1.2 Psychological and socioeconomic processesZero HungerI3I32C91Economicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3gj3r8tdarticleSouthern Economic Journal, vol 82, iss 41078 - 1105oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6349h36j2023-06-01T01:35:42Zqt6349h36jInflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New ZealandKumar, SatenAfrouzi, HassanCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, Yuriy2015-01-01Using a new survey of firm managers, we investigate whether inflation expectations in New Zealand are anchored or not. In spite of 25 years of inflation targeting by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, firm managers display little anchoring of such expectations. We document this finding along a number of dimensions. Managers are unaware of the identities of central bankers or of central banks’ objectives, and they are generally poorly informed about recent inflation dynamics. Their forecasts of future inflation reflect high levels of uncertainty and are extremely dispersed, and they are volatile along both short-run and long-run horizons. Similar results can be found for the United States using currently available surveys.inflationnew zealandcentral banksinflation dynamicsmonetary policyinterest ratesApplied EconomicsEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6349h36jarticleBrookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol 2015, iss 2151 - 225oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt59s4j4m42023-06-01T01:27:14Zqt59s4j4m4College performance predictions and the SATRothstein, Jesse M2004-07-01The methods used in most SAT validity studies cannot be justified by any sample selection assumptions and are uninformative about the source of the SAT's predictive power. A new omitted variables estimator is proposed; plausibly consistent estimates of the SAT's contribution to predictions of University of California freshman grade point averages are about 20% smaller than the usual methods imply. Moreover, much of the SAT's predictive power is found to derive from its correlation with high school demographic characteristics: The orthogonal portion of SAT scores is notably less predictive of future performance than is the unadjusted score. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.SAT validitycollege admissionssample selectionomitted variablesStatisticsApplied EconomicsEconometricspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/59s4j4m4articleJournal of Econometrics, vol 121, iss 1-2297 - 317oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0wg6v2r62023-05-31T11:08:46Zqt0wg6v2r6E-books: A Tale of Digital DisruptionGilbert, Richard J2015-08-01E-book sales surged after Amazon introduced the Kindle e-reader at the end of 2007 and accounted for about one quarter of all trade book sales by the end of 2013. Amazon's aggressive (low) pricing of e-books led to allegations that e-books were bankrupting brick and mortar book booksellers. Amazon's commanding position as a bookseller also raises concerns about monopoly power, and publishers are concerned about Amazon's power to displace them in the book value chain. I find little evidence that e-books are primarily responsible for the decline of independent booksellers. I also conclude that entry barriers are not sufficient to allow Amazon to set monopoly prices. Publishers are at risk from Amazon's monopsony (buyer) power and so sought “agency” pricing in an effort to raise the price of ebooks, promote retail competition, and reduce Amazon's influence as an e-retailer. (In the agency pricing model, the publisher specifies the retail price with a commission for the retailer. In a traditional, “wholesale” pricing model, publishers sell a book to retailers at a wholesale price and retailers set the retail price.) Although agency pricing was challenged by the Department of Justice, it may yet prevail in some form as an equilibrium pricing model for e-book sales.Economicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0wg6v2r6articleJournal of Economic Perspectives, vol 29, iss 3165 - 184oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0pm620m12023-05-31T09:24:38Zqt0pm620m1Selection bias in college admissions test scoresClark, MelissaRothstein, JesseSchanzenbach, Diane Whitmore2009-06-01Data from college admissions tests can provide a valuable measure of student achievement, but the non-representativeness of test-takers is an important concern. We examine selectivity bias in both state-level and school-level SAT and ACT averages. The degree of selectivity may differ importantly across and within schools, and across and within states. To identify within-state selectivity, we use a control function approach that conditions on scores from a representative test. Estimates indicate strong selectivity of test-takers in "ACT states," where most college-bound students take the ACT, and much less selectivity in SAT states. To identify within- and between-school selectivity, we take advantage of a policy reform in Illinois that made taking the ACT a graduation requirement. Estimates based on this policy change indicate substantial positive selection into test participation both across and within schools. Despite this, school-level averages of observed scores are extremely highly correlated with average latent scores, as across-school variation in sample selectivity is small relative to the underlying signal. As a result, in most contexts the use of observed school mean test scores in place of latent means understates the degree of between-school variation in achievement but is otherwise unlikely to lead to misleading conclusions. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd.College admissions testSelection biasHeckitSATC24I2J24Applied EconomicsEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0pm620m1articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1br4z9j42023-05-31T09:24:34Zqt1br4z9j4Student Sorting and Bias in Value-Added Estimation: Selection on Observables and UnobservablesRothstein, Jesse2009-10-01Nonrandom assignment of students to teachers can bias value-added estimates of teachers' causal effects. Rothstein (2008, 2010) shows that typical value-added models indicate large counterfactual effects of fifth-grade teachers on students' fourth-grade learning, indicating that classroom assignments are far from random. This article quantifies the resulting biases in estimates of fifth-grade teachers' causal effects from several value-added models, under varying assumptions about the assignment process. If assignments are assumed to depend only on observables, the most commonly used specifications are subject to important bias, but other feasible specifications are nearly free of bias. I also consider the case in which assignments depend on unobserved variables. I use the across-classroom variance of observables to calibrate several models of the sorting process. Results indicate that even the best feasible value-added models may be substantially biased, with the magnitude of the bias depending on the amount of information available for use in classroom assignments.I20I21value-added estimationstudent sortingbiasclassroom assignmentsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1br4z9j4articleEducation Finance and Policy, vol 4, iss 4537 - 571oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt60c833tx2023-05-31T09:10:42Zqt60c833txCorrigendum: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal PolicyAuerbach, Alan JGorodnichenko, Yuriy2013-08-01The published version of our paper had an accounting mistake in the construction of one time series. This note describes the mistake and presents results based on corrected data. The revised results are very similar to those originally reported.E23E32E62Applied Economicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/60c833txarticleAmerican Economic Journal Economic Policy, vol 5, iss 3320 - 322oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt586961tt2023-05-31T08:53:56Zqt586961ttRacial segregation and the black–white test score gapCard, DavidRothstein, Jesse2007-12-01Racial segregation is often blamed for some of the achievement gap between blacks and whites. We study the effects of school and neighborhood segregation on the relative SAT scores of black students across different metropolitan areas, using large microdata samples for the 1998-2001 test cohorts. Our models include detailed controls for the family background of individual test-takers, school-level controls for selective participation in the test, and city-level controls for racial composition, income, and region. We find robust evidence that the black-white test score gap is higher in more segregated cities. Holding constant family background and other factors, a shift from a highly segregated city to a nearly integrated city closes about one-quarter of the raw black-white gap in SAT scores. Specifications that distinguish between school and neighborhood segregation suggest that neighborhood segregation has a consistently negative impact while school segregation has no independent effect, though we cannot reject equality of the two effects. Additional tests indicate that much of the effect of neighborhood segregation operates through neighbors' incomes, not through race per se. Data on enrollment in honors courses suggest that within-school segregation increases when schools are more highly integrated, potentially offsetting the benefits of school desegregation and accounting for our findings. © 2007.Clinical Researchsegregationblack-white test score gappeer effectsEconomic TheoryApplied EconomicsEconometricsEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/586961ttarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3jd237cg2023-05-29T19:11:01Zqt3jd237cgSMALL BANDWIDTH ASYMPTOTICS FOR DENSITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE DERIVATIVESCattaneo, Matias DCrump, Richard KJansson, Michael2014-02-01This paper proposes (apparently) novel standard error formulas for the density-weighted average derivative estimator of Powell, Stock, and Stoker (Econometrica 57, 1989). Asymptotic validity of the standard errors developed in this paper does not require the use of higher-order kernels, and the standard errors are robust in the sense that they accommodate (but do not require) bandwidths that are smaller than those for which conventional standard errors are valid. Moreover, the results of a Monte Carlo experiment suggest that the finite sample coverage rates of confidence intervals constructed using the standard errors developed in this papercoincide (approximately) with the nominal coverage rates across a nontrivial range of bandwidths. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 A ̂.Semiparametric estimationdensity-weighted average derivativesStatisticsEconometricsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3jd237cgarticleEconometric Theory, vol 30, iss 1176 - 200oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt43v753j32023-05-29T11:39:25Zqt43v753j3Is the EITC as Good as an NIT? Conditional Cash Transfers and Tax IncidenceRothstein, Jesse2010-02-01The EITC is intended to encourage work. But EITC-induced increases in labor supply may drive wages down. I simulate the economic incidence of the EITC. In each scenario that I consider, a large portion of low-income single mothers' EITC payments is captured by employers through reduced wages. Workers who are EITC ineligible also see wage declines. By contrast, a traditional Negative Income Tax (NIT) discourages work, and so induces large transfers from employers to their workers. With my preferred parameters, $1 in EITC spending increases after-tax incomes by $0.73, while $1 spent on the NIT yields $1.39.H22H23I38J23Applied EconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/43v753j3articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3rp1q4cn2023-05-29T10:37:52Zqt3rp1q4cnStrategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE ModelCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, Yuriy2011-08-01Abstract-We consider a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) in which firms follow one of four price-setting regimes: sticky prices, sticky information, rule of thumb, or full-information flexible prices. The parameters of the model, including the fraction of each type of firm, are estimated by matching the moments of the observed variables of the model to those found in the data. We find that sticky price firms and sticky information firms jointly account for over 80% of firms in the model. We compare the performance of our hybrid model to pure sticky price and sticky information models along various dimensions, including monetary policy implications. © 2011 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.E3E5HeterogeneityPrice-settingDSGE.DSGEApplied EconomicsEconometricsEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3rp1q4cnarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt32t4d2tq2023-05-29T07:10:27Zqt32t4d2tqEducation as Liberation?Friedman, WillaKremer, MichaelMiguel, EdwardThornton, Rebecca2016-01-01This paper studies the political and social impacts of increased education by utilizing a randomized girls' merit scholarship programme in Kenya that raised test scores and secondary schooling. Consistent with the view that education empowers the disadvantaged to challenge authority, we find that the programme reduced the acceptance of domestic violence and political authority. Young women in programme schools also increased their objective political knowledge. We find that this rejection of the status quo did not translate into greater perceived political efficacy, community participation or voting intentions. Instead, there is suggestive evidence that the perceived legitimacy of political violence increased.Clinical ResearchGender Equalityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/32t4d2tqarticleEconomica, vol 83, iss 3291 - 30oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5cd1r3bd2023-05-29T00:11:16Zqt5cd1r3bdDo You Know that I Know that You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey DataCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyKumar, SatenRyngaert, Jane2021-06-30We implement a new survey of firms, focusing on their higher-order macroeconomic expectations. The survey provides a novel set of stylized facts regarding the relationship between first-order and higher-order expectations of economic agents, including how they adjust their beliefs in response to a variety of information treatments. We show how these facts can be used to calibrate key parameters of noisy-information models with infinite regress as well as to test predictions made by this class of models. We also consider a range of extensions to the basic noisy-information model that can potentially better reconcile theory and empirics. Although some extensions like level-k thinking are unsuccessful, incorporating heterogeneous long-run priors can address the empirical shortcomings of the basic noisy-information model.Basic Behavioral and Social ScienceBehavioral and Social ScienceEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5cd1r3bdarticleThe Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol 136, iss 31387 - 1446oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt16b4s9j22023-05-28T17:00:00Zqt16b4s9j2Temperature and violenceCane, Mark AMiguel, EdwardBurke, MarshallHsiang, Solomon MLobell, David BMeng, Kyle CSatyanath, Shanker2014-04-01Atmospheric SciencesPhysical Geography and Environmental GeoscienceEnvironmental Science and Managementapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/16b4s9j2articleNature Climate Change, vol 4, iss 4234 - 235oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8562r8fc2023-05-28T11:48:24Zqt8562r8fcConsumption Inequality and the Frequency of PurchasesCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyKoustas, Dmitri2021-10-01We document a decline in the frequency of shopping trips in the United States since 1980 and consider its implications for the measurement of consumption inequality. A decline in shopping frequency as households stock up on storable goods (i.e., inventory behavior) will lead to a rise in expenditure inequality when the latter is measured at high frequency, even when underlying consumption inequality is unchanged. We find that most of the recently documented rise in expenditure inequality in the United States since the 1980s can be accounted for by this phenomenon. Using detailed micro data on spending, which we link to data on club/warehouse store openings, we directly attribute much of the reduced frequency of shopping trips to the rise in club/warehouse stores. (JEL D12, D31, D63, D91, E21)Reduced InequalitiesD31E21D63consumption inequalityexpenditure inequalityEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8562r8fcarticleAmerican Economic Journal Macroeconomics, vol 13, iss 4449 - 482oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8181334s2023-05-28T10:03:45Zqt8181334sInnocent Bystanders? Monetary policy and inequalityCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyKueng, LorenzSilvia, John2017-06-01We study the effects of monetary policy shocks on—and their historical contribution to—consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980 as measured by the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Contractionary monetary policy systematically increases inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary policy shocks account for a non-trivial component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document some of the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.Reduced InequalitiesMonetary policyIncome inequalityConsumption inequalityE3E4E5monetary policyincome inequalityconsumption inequalityEconomic TheoryApplied EconomicsEconometricsEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8181334sarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9bn4w75j2023-05-28T07:46:36Zqt9bn4w75jGreater Inequality and Household Borrowing: New Evidence from Household DataCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyKudlyak, MariannaMondragon, John2020-12-16Using household-level debt data over 2000-2012 and local variation in inequality, we show that low-income households in high-inequality regions (zip codes, counties, states) accumulated less debt relative to their income than low-income households in lower inequality regions. We also find evidence that low-income households face higher credit prices and reduced access to credit as inequality increases. We argue that these patterns are consistent with inequality tilting credit supply away from low-income households and toward high-income households, which may have long-run implications for outcomes like homeownership or entrepreneurship.Clinical ResearchReduced InequalitiesEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9bn4w75jarticleJournal of the European Economic Association, vol 18, iss 62922 - 2971oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt81c3240v2023-05-27T23:30:42Zqt81c3240vThe Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips CurveCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyKamdar, Rupal2018-12-01This paper argues for a careful (re)consideration of the expectations formation process and a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic analyses. While the rational expectations revolution has allowed for great leaps in macroeconomic modeling, the surveyed empirical micro-evidence appears increasingly at odds with the full-information rational expectation assumption. We explore models of expectation formation that can potentially explain why and how survey data deviate from full-information rational expectations. Using the New Keynesian Phillips curve as an extensive case study, we demonstrate how incorporating survey data on inflation expectations can address a number of otherwise puzzling shortcomings that arise under the assumption of full-information rational expectations.D84E24E27E31E37EconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/81c3240varticleJournal of Economic Literature, vol 56, iss 41447 - 1491oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8w31z6qx2023-05-27T20:31:54Zqt8w31z6qxForecast Error Variance Decompositions with Local ProjectionsGorodnichenko, YuriyLee, Byoungchan2020-10-01We propose and study properties of an estimator of the forecast error variance decomposition in the local projections framework. We find for empirically relevant sample sizes that, after being bias-corrected with bootstrap, our estimator performs well in simulations. We also illustrate the workings of our estimator empirically for monetary policy and productivity shocks. KEYWORDS: Forecast error variance decomposition; Local projections.Mathematical SciencesEconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and ServicesEconometricspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8w31z6qxarticleJournal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol 38, iss 4921 - 933oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2wb6f5q62023-05-27T04:08:46Zqt2wb6f5q6Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence*Coibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyRopele, Tiziano2020-02-01We use a unique design feature of a survey of Italian firms to study the causal effect of inflation expectations on firms' economic decisions. In the survey, a randomly chosen subset of firms is repeatedly treated with information about recent inflation whereas other firms are not. This information treatment generates exogenous variation in inflation expectations. We find that higher inflation expectations on the part of firms leads them to raise their prices, increase demand for credit, and reduce their employment and capital. However, when policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound, demand effects are stronger, leading firms to raise their prices more and no longer reduce their employment.Decent Work and Economic GrowthE2E3inflation expectationssurveysinattentionEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2wb6f5q6articleThe Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol 135, iss 1165 - 219oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4271z78q2023-05-27T03:42:40Zqt4271z78qThe Choice between Formal and Informal Intellectual Property: A ReviewHall, BronwynHelmers, ChristianRogers, MarkSena, Vania2014-06-01We survey the economic literature, both theoretical and empirical, on the choice of intellectual property protection by firms. Our focus is on the trade-offs between using patents and disclosing versus the use of secrecy, although we also look briefly at the use of other means of formal intellectual property protection.Economicsapplication/pdfCC-BY-NC-SAeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4271z78qarticleJournal of Economic Literature, vol 52, iss 2375 - 423oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt52b564562023-05-27T01:43:16Zqt52b56456Dominant Currency ParadigmGopinath, GitaBoz, EmineCasas, CamilaDíez, Federico JGourinchas, Pierre-OlivierPlagborg-Møller, Mikkel2020-03-01We propose a “dominant currency paradigm” with three key features: dominant currency pricing, pricing complementarities, and imported inputs in production. We test this paradigm using a new dataset of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs that covers 91 percent of world trade, as well as detailed firm-product-country data for Colombian exports and imports. In strong support of the paradigm we find that (i) noncommodities terms-of-trade are uncorrelated with exchange rates; (ii) the dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions, and this effect is increasing in the share of imports invoiced in dollars; (iii) US import volumes are significantly less sensitive to bilateral exchange rates, compared to other countries’ imports; (iv) a 1 percent US dollar appreciation against all other currencies predicts a 0.6 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. We characterize the transmission of, and spillovers from, monetary policy shocks in this environment.EconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and Servicesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/52b56456articleAmerican Economic Review, vol 110, iss 3677 - 719oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9dw1f40q2023-05-27T01:40:19Zqt9dw1f40qRents, Technical Change, and Risk Premia Accounting for Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns on Capital, Earning Yields, and Factor SharesCaballero, Ricardo JFarhi, EmmanuelGourinchas, Pierre-Olivier2017-05-01The secular decline in safe interest rates since the early 1980s has been the subject of considerable attention. In this short paper, we argue that it is important to consider the evolution of safe real rates in conjunction with three other first-order macroeconomic stylized facts: the relative constancy of the real return to productive capital, the decline in the labor share, and the decline and subsequent stabilization of the earnings yield. Through the lens of a simple accounting framework, these four facts offer suggestive insights into the economic forces that might be at work.AgingDecent Work and Economic GrowthEconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and ServicespubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9dw1f40qarticleAmerican Economic Review, vol 107, iss 5614 - 620oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7cb7s8wr2023-05-27T01:40:13Zqt7cb7s8wrSafe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate DemandCaballero, Ricardo JFarhi, EmmanuelGourinchas, Pierre-Olivier2016-05-01We explore the consequences of safe asset scarcity on aggregate demand in a stylized IS-LM/Mundell Fleming style environment. Acute safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a “safety trap” recession. In the open economy, safe asset scarcity spreads from one country to the other via capital flows, equalizing interest rates. Acute global safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a global safety trap. The exchange rate becomes indeterminate but plays a crucial role in both the distribution and the magnitude of output adjustment across countries. Policies that increase the net supply of safe assets somewhere are output enhancing everywhere.Clean Water and SanitationDecent Work and Economic GrowthEconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and Servicesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7cb7s8wrarticleAmerican Economic Review, vol 106, iss 5513 - 518oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3d17p49d2023-05-27T01:40:09Zqt3d17p49dCapital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation PuzzleGourinchas, P-OJeanne, O2013-10-01The textbook neoclassical growth model predicts that countries with faster productivity growth should invest more and attract more foreign capital. We show that the allocation of capital flows across developing countries is the opposite of this prediction: capital does notflowmore to countries that invest and grow more.We call this puzzle the "allocation puzzle". Using a wedge analysis, we find that the pattern of capital flows is driven by national saving: the allocation puzzle is a saving puzzle. Further disaggregation of capital flows reveals that the allocation puzzle is also related to the pattern of accumulation of international reserves. The solution to the "allocation puzzle", thus, lies at the nexus between growth, saving, and international reserve accumulation.We conclude with a discussion of some possible avenues for research. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Review of Economic Studies Limited.Capital flowsProductivityGrowthF36F43Capital FlowsEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3d17p49darticleThe Review of Economic Studies, vol 80, iss 41484 - 1515oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4275g61h2023-05-26T22:57:45Zqt4275g61hThe Value of Democracy: Evidence from Road Building in KenyaBurgess, RobinJedwab, RemiMiguel, EdwardMorjaria, AmeetPadró i Miquel, Gerard2015-06-01Ethnic favoritism is seen as antithetical to development. This paper provides credible quantification of the extent of ethnic favoritism using data on road building in Kenyan districts across the 1963-2011 period. Guided by a model, it then examines whether the transition in and out of democracy under the same president constrains or exacerbates ethnic favoritism. Across the post-independence period, we find strong evidence of ethnic favoritism: districts that share the ethnicity of the president receive twice as much expenditure on roads and have five times the length of paved roads built. This favoritism disappears during periods of democracy. (JEL D72, H54, J15, O15, O17, O22, R42).Infectious DiseasesEconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and Servicesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4275g61harticleAmerican Economic Review, vol 105, iss 61817 - 1851oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt83h9d9gb2023-05-26T22:57:04Zqt83h9d9gbWar and deforestation in Sierra LeoneBurgess, RobinMiguel, EdwardStanton, Charlotte2015-09-01The impact of armed conflict on the environment is of major public policy importance. We use a geographically disaggregated dataset of civil war violence together with satellite imagery of land cover to test whether war facilitated or prevented forest loss in Sierra Leone. The conflict data set allows us to establish where rebel groups were stationed and where battles and attacks occurred. The satellite data enables to us to monitor the change in forest cover (total, primary, and secondary) in all of Sierra Leone's 151 chiefdoms, between 1990 (prior to the war) and 2000 (just prior to its end). The results suggest that conflict in Sierra Leone acted as a brake on local deforestation: conflict-ridden areas experienced significantly less forest loss relative to their more conflict-free counterparts.Life on LandPeaceJustice and Strong Institutionsdeforestationcivil warSierra LeoneMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciencesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/83h9d9gbarticleEnvironmental Research Letters, vol 10, iss 9095014oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0bt6r8br2023-05-26T22:42:40Zqt0bt6r8brMeasuring the Impacts of Teachers: CommentRothstein, Jesse2017-06-01Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff (2014a, b) study value-added (VA) measures of teacher effectiveness. CFR (2014a) exploits teacher switching as a quasi-experiment, concluding that student sorting creates negligible bias in VA scores. CFR (2014b) finds VA scores are useful proxies for teachers' effects on students' long-run outcomes. I successfully reproduce each in North Carolina data. But I find that the quasi-experiment is invalid, as teacher switching is correlated with changes in student preparedness. Adjusting for this, I find moderate bias in VA scores, perhaps 10-35 percent as large, in variance terms, as teachers' causal effects. Long-run results are sensitive to controls and cannot support strong conclusions.EconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and Servicesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0bt6r8brarticleAmerican Economic Review, vol 107, iss 61656 - 1684oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt63n8q20q2023-05-26T17:52:10Zqt63n8q20qEvaluating Teacher EvaluationDarling-Hammond, LindaAmrein-Beardsley, AudreyHaertel, EdwardRothstein, Jesse2012-03-01There is a growing consensus that evidence of teachers' contributions to student learning should be a component of teacher evaluation systems, along with evidence about the quality of teachers' practice. Value-added models (VAMs), designed to evaluate student test score gains from one year to the next are often promoted as tools to accomplish this goal. However, current research suggests that VAM ratings are not sufficiently reliable or valid to support high-stakes, individual-level decisions about teachers. Other tools for teacher evaluation have shown greater success in measuring and improving teaching, especially those that examine teachers' practices in relation to professional standards.Educationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/63n8q20qarticlePhi Delta Kappan, vol 93, iss 68 - 15oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt19n967tz2023-05-26T16:47:22Zqt19n967tzThe International Monetary and Financial SystemGourinchas, Pierre-OlivierRey, HélèneSauzet, Maxime2019-08-02International currencies fulfill different roles in the world economy, with important synergies across those roles. We explore the implications of currency hegemony for the external balance sheet of the United States, the process of international adjustment, and the predictability of the US dollar exchange rate. We emphasize the importance of international monetary spillovers and of the exorbitant privilege, and we analyze the emergence of a new Triffin dilemma.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/19n967tzarticleAnnual Review of Economics, vol 11, iss 11 - 35oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8jv7t6202023-05-26T16:20:33Zqt8jv7t620The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy ImplicationsCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyHong, Gee Hee2015-03-01We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes, and average prices paid by consumers ("effective" prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many US metropolitan areas. Inflation in the effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment while little change occurs in the inflation rate of prices posted by retailers. This difference reflects the reallocation of household expenditures across retailers, a feature of the data which we document and quantify, rather than sales. We propose a simple model with household store-switching and assess its implications for business cycles and policymakers.E3 E4 E5Inflation and pricesMonetary policy frameworkTransmission of monetary policyEconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and ServicespubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8jv7t620articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt84j126592023-05-26T16:20:29Zqt84j12659Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing DisinflationCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, Yuriy2015-01-01We evaluate explanations for the absence of disinflation during the Great Recession and find popular explanations to be insufficient. We propose a new explanation for this puzzle within the context of a standard Phillips curve. If firms' inflation expectations track those of households, then the missing disinflation can be explained by the rise in their inflation expectations between 2009 and 2011. We present new econometric and survey evidence consistent with firms having similar expectations as households. The rise in household inflation expectations from 2009 to 2011 can be explained by the increase in oil prices over this time period.D84E24E32E52E58Q35EconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/84j12659articleAmerican Economic Journal Macroeconomics, vol 7, iss 1197 - 232oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3tv0w4wd2023-05-26T16:20:25Zqt3tv0w4wdInformation Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New FactsCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, Yuriy2015-08-01We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to US and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process.E3E4E5ExpectationsInformation RigiditySurvey ForecastsEconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and ServicespubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3tv0w4wdarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0zn007722023-05-26T16:20:22Zqt0zn00772Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes so Persistent?Coibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, Yuriy2012-10-01While the degree of policy inertia in central banks reaction functions is a central ingredient in theoretical and empirical monetary economics, the source of the observed policy inertia in the United States is controversial, with tests of competing hypotheses, such as interest-smoothing and persistent-shocks, being inconclusive. This paper employs real time data; nested specifications with flexible time series structures; narratives; interest rate forecasts of the Fed, financial markets, and professional forecasters; and instrumental variables to discriminate between competing explanations of policy inertia. The evidence strongly favors the interest-smoothing explanation and thus can help resolve a key puzzle in monetary economics. (JEL C53, E43, E47, E52, E58). © 2012 Asian Network for Scientific Information.E3E4E5Taylor rulesinterest rate smoothingmonetary policy shocks.monetary policy shocksEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0zn00772articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6v7985ds2023-05-26T15:31:24Zqt6v7985dsCollective Rights Organizations: A Guide to Benefits, Costs and Antitrust SafeguardsGilbert, Richard J2017-12-14application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6v7985dschapteroai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9kz4s6v92023-05-26T09:48:12Zqt9kz4s6v9Good Principals or Good Peers? Parental Valuation of School Characteristics, Tiebout Equilibrium, and the Incentive Effects of Competition among JurisdictionsRothstein, Jesse M2006-08-01In a multicommunity model, high-income families cluster together in any equilibrium, and cluster near effective schools if effectiveness is an important component of community desirability. Governmental fragmentation facilitates this residential sorting. Thus, if parents prefer effective schools, income correlates with effectiveness in high-choice-market equilibrium. I examine the distribution of student background and test scores across schools within metropolitan areas that differ in the structure of educational governance. I find little indication of the “effectiveness sorting” that is predicted if parents choose neighborhoods for the efficacy of the local schools. This suggests caution about the productivity implications of school choice policies.EconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and Servicesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9kz4s6v9articleAmerican Economic Review, vol 96, iss 41333 - 1350oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4cr497qv2023-05-26T02:50:53Zqt4cr497qvPatents as quality signals? The implications for financing constraints on R&DHottenrott, HannaHall, Bronwyn HCzarnitzki, Dirk2016-04-02Information about the success of a new technology is usually held asymmetrically between the research and development (R&D)-performing firm and potential lenders and investors. This raises the cost of capital for financing R&D externally, resulting in financing constraints on R&D, especially for firms with limited internal resources. Previous literature provided evidence for start-up firms on the role of patents as signals to investors, in particular to Venture Capitalists. This study adds to previous insights by studying the effects of firms’ patenting activity on the degree of financing constraints on R&D for a panel of established firms. The results show that patents do indeed attenuate financing constraints for small firms where information asymmetries may be particularly high and collateral value is low. Larger firms are not only less subject to financing constraints, but also do not seem to benefit from a patent quality signal.patentsquality signalresearch and developmentfinancial constraintsinnovation policyPatentsQuality SignalResearch and DevelopmentFinancial ConstraintsInnovation PolicyApplied EconomicsEconomicsapplication/pdfCC-BY-NC-SAeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4cr497qvarticleEconomics of Innovation and New Technology, vol 25, iss 3197 - 217oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8cf1r7fq2023-05-25T21:25:38Zqt8cf1r7fqHow Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey EvidenceCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyKumar, Saten2018-09-01We survey New Zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs. There is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation. This dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms' incentives to collect and process information. Using experimental methods, we find that firms update their beliefs in a Bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decisions. Inflation is not generally perceived as being important to business decisions so firms devote few resources to collecting and processing information about inflation.Behavioral and Social ScienceBasic Behavioral and Social ScienceDecent Work and Economic GrowthEconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and Servicesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8cf1r7fqarticleAmerican Economic Review, vol 108, iss 92671 - 2713oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2869f8h12023-05-17T05:28:02Zqt2869f8h1Decentralization and development: Dilemmas, trade-offs and safeguardsBardhan, PMookherjee, DAhmad, EhtishamBrosio, Giorgio2015-02-27publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2869f8h1multimediaoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3bq7w5882023-03-11T14:39:59Zqt3bq7w588Culture, Institutions and the Wealth of NationsGorodnichenko, YuriyRoland, Gerald2023-03-11We construct an endogenous growth model that includes a cultural variable along the dimension of individualism-collectivism. The model predicts that more individualism leads to more innovation because of the social rewards associated with innovation in an individualist culture. This cultural effect may offset the negative effects of bad institutions on growth. Collectivism leads to efficiency gains relative to individualism, but these gains are static, unlike the dynamic effect of individualism on growth through innovation. Using genetic data as instruments for culture we provide strong evidence of a causal effect of individualism on income per worker and total factor productivity as well as on innovation. The baseline genetic markers we use are interpreted as proxies for cultural transmission but others have a direct effect on individualism and collectivism, in line with recent advances in biology and neuro-science. The effect of culture on long-run growth remains very robust even after controlling for the effect of institutions and other factors. We also provide evidence of a two-way causal effect between culture and institutions.O1O3O4O5cultureinstitutionsdevelopmentgrowthpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3bq7w588articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt01z7v2152023-03-01T16:36:49Zqt01z7v215Financing constraints, R&D investments and innovative performances: new empirical evidence at the firm level for EuropeHall, BHMoncada-Paternò-Castello, PMontresor, SVezzani, A2016-04-02The relationship between financing constraints, investments in research and development (R&D) and innovative performances has recently attracted renewed attention in the aftermath of a financial crisis that has led to problems of access to the credit on which innovation activities crucially rely. In spite of past developments in the theoretical analysis and in the data and methodologies for empirical investigation, some issues have remained unexplored to date. In this introduction to the special issue, we examine the contribution of the papers it contains, which provide new conceptualisations and empirical evidence at the firm level for Europe. Most previous research results, which were mainly based on extending models of financing constraints and physical investments to R&D investments, are confirmed, while new insights about this relationship are uncovered, in terms of the structural characteristics of the constrained firms, of the industries in which they operate, of their innovative activities and of the innovation outcomes they achieve.IndustryInnovation and InfrastructureR&Dfinancial constraintsinnovationApplied EconomicsEconomicsapplication/pdfCC-BY-NC-SAeScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/01z7v215articleEconomics of Innovation and New Technology, vol 25, iss 3183 - 196oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt95c6n64q2023-02-14T19:18:41Zqt95c6n64qFalling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries.Egger, DennisMiguel, EdwardWarren, Shana SShenoy, AshishCollins, ElliottKarlan, DeanParkerson, DougMobarak, A MushfiqFink, GüntherUdry, ChristopherWalker, MichaelHaushofer, JohannesLarreboure, MagdalenaAthey, SusanLopez-Pena, PaulaBenhachmi, SalimHumphreys, MacartanLowe, LaynaMeriggi, Niccoló FWabwire, AndrewDavis, C AustinPape, Utz JohannGraff, TilmanVoors, MaartenNekesa, CarolynVernot, Corey2021-02-01Despite numerous journalistic accounts, systematic quantitative evidence on economic conditions during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remains scarce for most low- and middle-income countries, partly due to limitations of official economic statistics in environments with large informal sectors and subsistence agriculture. We assemble evidence from over 30,000 respondents in 16 original household surveys from nine countries in Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, Sierra Leone), Asia (Bangladesh, Nepal, Philippines), and Latin America (Colombia). We document declines in employment and income in all settings beginning March 2020. The share of households experiencing an income drop ranges from 8 to 87% (median, 68%). Household coping strategies and government assistance were insufficient to sustain precrisis living standards, resulting in widespread food insecurity and dire economic conditions even 3 months into the crisis. We discuss promising policy responses and speculate about the risk of persistent adverse effects, especially among children and other vulnerable groups.HumansFamily CharacteristicsSeasonsDomestic ViolenceGovernment ProgramsDeveloping CountriesAgricultureAdultChildEmploymentIncomeAfricaColombiaAsiaFemaleMaleEconomic RecessionPandemicsSurveys and QuestionnairesCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2Food InsecurityBasic Behavioral and Social ScienceBehavioral and Social ScienceZero Hungerapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/95c6n64qarticleScience advances, vol 7, iss 6eabe0997oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt86c7x3152023-02-07T02:03:37Zqt86c7x315Two-Step Estimation and Inference with Possibly Many Included CovariatesCattaneo, Matias DJansson, MichaelMa, Xinwei2019-05-01Many covariates asymptoticsRobust inferenceBias CorrectionResampling MethodsM-estimationEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/86c7x315articleThe Review of Economic Studies, vol 86, iss 31095 - 1122oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7957p9g62023-02-05T19:03:33Zqt7957p9g6Social Experiments in the Labor MarketRothstein, JesseVon Wachter, Till2016-09-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7957p9g6articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8gt6j5wc2023-02-04T05:04:36Zqt8gt6j5wcIs Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary PressuresCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyUlate, Mauricio2019-05-01Tightening labor markets in the United States and other advanced economies suggest inflation should be on the rise, yet it remains subdued. Is the Phillips curve broken? We bring together surveys of household or firm expectations for 18 countries to estimate an expectations-augmented Phillips curve. We find strong evidence of a Phillips curve relationship: the Phillips curve is alive and well. The fact that inflation remains well below inflation expectations, both in the United States and abroad, suggests that there remains significant slack in labor markets.E24E31application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8gt6j5wcarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4nv5q5hp2023-02-04T04:55:36Zqt4nv5q5hpGeneralized Jackknife Estimators of Weighted Average DerivativesCattaneo, Matias DCrump, Richard KJansson, Michael2013-12-01Bias correctionSemiparametric estimationUniform consistencyStatisticsEconometricsDemographyStatistics & Probabilityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4nv5q5hparticleJournal of the American Statistical Association, vol 108, iss 5041243 - 1256oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9h51c3732022-12-23T09:59:54Zqt9h51c373Political Polarization and Expected Economic OutcomesCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2020-10-27Electionspolitical viewsCOVID-19expectationsrandomized controlled trialBayesian learningpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9h51c373articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt19b8p8g12022-12-22T22:18:13Zqt19b8p8g1Does Policy Communication During COVID Work?Coibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2020-01-01subjective expectationsfiscal policymonetary policyCOVID-19surveysapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/19b8p8g1articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4cc4w1hg2022-12-22T17:00:16Zqt4cc4w1hgLabor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary ViewCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2020-04-28labor marketunemploymentemploymentCOVID-19application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4cc4w1hgarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9ms1v2hp2022-12-22T17:00:11Zqt9ms1v2hpLabor Markets During the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary ViewCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2020-01-01labor marketunemploymentemploymentcovid-19publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9ms1v2hparticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4jn1x65h2022-12-22T17:00:07Zqt4jn1x65hThe Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer SpendingCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2020-05-05Subjective expectationsconsumer spendinglabor marketemploymentCOVID -19surveyspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4jn1x65harticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2w66q61b2022-12-22T17:00:02Zqt2w66q61bThe Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer SpendingCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2020-01-01subjective expectationsconsumer spendinglabor marketemploymentCOVID-19surveyspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2w66q61barticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt69b8w79w2022-12-22T16:59:58Zqt69b8w79wThe Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer SpendingCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2020-05-05Subjective expectationsconsumer spendinglabor marketemploymentCOVID -19surveyspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/69b8w79warticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt71g5h8922022-12-22T07:00:27Zqt71g5h892Forward Guidance and Household ExpectationsCoibion, OlivierGeorgarakos, DimitrisGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2022-07-19Expectations managementinflation expectationssurveyscommunicationrandomized controlled trialpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/71g5h892articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt63x5f3w52022-12-22T07:00:23Zqt63x5f3w5Forward Guidance and Household ExpectationsCoibion, OlivierGeorgarakos, DimitrisGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2020-01-01expectations managementinflation expectationssurveyscommunicationrandomized controlled trialpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/63x5f3w5articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5cg5w74j2022-12-21T16:31:22Zqt5cg5w74jSafety Nets Investments in ChildrenHoynes, Hilary WSchanzenbach, Diane Whitmore2018-01-01safety netschildrenMedicaidEITCCTCSNAPAFDC/TANFwelfare reformpovertyApplied EconomicsEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5cg5w74jarticleBrookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol 49, iss 1 (Spring)89 - 150oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt78g0s1s62022-12-21T15:43:11Zqt78g0s1s6Conference Presentations and Academic PublishingGorodnichenko, YuriyPham, ThoTalavera, Oleksandr2022-12-21conferencespublishing outcomesresearch visibilityprofessional developmentapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/78g0s1s6articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt304785542022-12-21T15:43:07Zqt30478554How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control TrialCoibion, OlivierGeorgarakos, DimitrisGorodnichenko, Yuriy<!>van Rooij, Maarten2019-08-29survey datainflation expectationshouseholdsdurable and non-durable consumptionrandomized control trialpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/30478554articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt71v7h37f2022-12-21T13:32:33Zqt71v7h37fInflation Expectations and Firms’ Decisions: New Causal EvidenceCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyRopele, Tiziano2019-04-29inflation expectationssurveysinattentionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/71v7h37farticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6jn5158q2022-12-21T08:01:32Zqt6jn5158qFiscal PolicyAuerbach, Alan J2019-01-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6jn5158qarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt54f0k77k2022-12-20T18:45:43Zqt54f0k77kInflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal EvidenceCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyRopele, Tiziano2022-12-20inflation expectationssurveysinattentionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/54f0k77karticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9wv3m70v2022-12-19T15:37:52Zqt9wv3m70vInflation Expectations in Ukraine: A Long Path to Anchoring?Coibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, Yuriy2015-09-01We study survey data of inflation and exchange rate expectations in Ukraine.These data are available for households, firms and professional forecasters. We document some unique properties of these data as well as some limitations and discuss the longer run prospects for inflation expectations in Ukraine given the National Bank of Ukraine's desire to adopt an inflation target in the future.E3E4E5Expectationsanchoringinflation targetingpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9wv3m70varticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3gw4221m2022-12-19T15:37:48Zqt3gw4221mSecular Stagnation: Policy Options and the Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential OutputCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyUlate, Mauricio2022-12-19The fact that most of the persistent declines in output since the Great Recession
have parlayed into equivalent declines in measures of potential output is commonly
interpreted as implying that output will not return to previous trends. Using a variety
of estimates of potential output for the U.S. and other countries, we show that these
estimates respond gradually not only to supply-side shocks but also respond to demand
shocks that have only transitory effects on output. Observing a revision in measures of
potential output therefore says little about whether concurrent changes in actual output
are likely to be permanent or not.E2E3potential outputoutput persistencesecular stagnationpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3gw4221marticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5jm2t8tx2022-12-19T02:15:33Zqt5jm2t8txConsumption Inequality and the Frequency of PurchasesCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyKoustas, Dmitri2022-12-18consumption inequalityexpenditure inequalityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5jm2t8txarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8kb8k0d02022-12-18T19:04:27Zqt8kb8k0d0Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero Lower Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of InflationCarreras, Marc Dordal ICoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWieland, Johannes2016-10-01Countries rarely hit the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates, but when they do, these episodes tend to be very long-lived. These two features are difficult to incorporate jointly into macroeconomic models using typical representations of shock processes. We introduce a regime-switching representation of risk premium shocks into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to generate a realistic distribution of ZLB durations. We discuss what different calibrations of this model imply for optimal inflation rates.E3E4E5optimal inflationzero lower boundpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8kb8k0d0articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0mc3s7n32022-12-18T19:04:22Zqt0mc3s7n3How Firms Absorb Demand Side Shocks: Evidence from a Natural ExperimentGorodnichenko, YuriyTalavera, OleksandrBilotkach, Volodymyr2022-12-18Natural experimentcongestionmulti-airport marketsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0mc3s7n3articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2qc6f09b2022-12-17T13:16:00Zqt2qc6f09bHow inertial is monetary policy? implications for the fed’s exit strategyGorodnichenko, YCoibion, O2016-01-01As the US economy recovers in fits and starts, attention is turning to exit strategies.How will the Fed unwind its quantitative easing? This column presents evidence ofsubstantial levels of policy inertia in monetary policy. It says that we should not expectrapid policy changes in the near future – barring clear signs of economic distress.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2qc6f09barticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0m94t5b22022-12-16T22:35:05Zqt0m94t5b2Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household DataCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyKudlyak, MariannaMondragon, John2016-08-10Using household-level debt data over 2000-2012 and local variation in inequality, we show that low-income households in high-inequality regions (zip-codes, counties, states) accumulated less debt (relative to their income) than low-income households in lower-inequality regions, contrary to the prevailing view. Furthermore, the price of credit is higher and access to credit is harder for low-income households in high-inequality versus low-inequality regions. Lower quantities combined with higher prices suggest that the debt accumulation pattern by household income across areas with different inequality is a result of credit supply rather than credit demand. We propose a lending model to illustrate the mechanism.D14 E21 E51 G21publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0m94t5b2articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1dk434gf2022-12-16T22:34:55Zqt1dk434gfState and Development: The Need for a Reappraisal of the Current LiteratureBardhan, Pranab2016-09-01This essay tries to bring out some of the complexities that are overlooked in the usual treatment of the state in the institutional economics literature and supplement the latter with a discussion of some alternative approaches to looking at the possible developmental role of the state. It refers to a broader range of development goals (including the structural transformation of the economy) and focuses on problems like the resolution of coordination failures and collective-action problems, the conflicting issues of commitment and accountability and the need for balancing the trade-offs they generate, some ingredients of state capacity and political coalition building usually missed in the literature, the possible importance of rent sharing in a political equilibrium, the advantages and problems of political centralization and decentralization, and the multidimensionality of state functions that may not be addressed by markets or private firms.D72H11H77K00O17O43P26Economicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1dk434gfarticleJournal of Economic Literature, vol 54, iss 3oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt59j1m2292022-12-16T18:47:30Zqt59j1m229An Equilibrium Theory of RationingKlemperer, PaulGilbert, Richard2022-12-16Economicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/59j1m229articleRAND Journal of Economics, vol 31, iss 1oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4246d63n2022-12-15T22:13:18Zqt4246d63nU.S. Food and Nutrition ProgramsHoynes, Hilary WilliamsonSchanzenbach, Diane Whitmore2015-03-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4246d63narticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5fv7d1dm2022-12-15T22:13:12Zqt5fv7d1dmDoes Foreign Entry Spur Innovation?Gorodnichenko, YuriySvejnar, JanTerrell, Katherine2022-12-15Our estimates, based on large firm-level and industry-level data sets from eighteen countries, suggest that FDI and trade have strong positive spillover effects on product and technology innovation by domestic firms in emerging markets. The FDI effect is more pronounced for firms from advanced economies. Moreover, our results indicate that the spillover effects can be detected with micro data at the firm-level, but that using linkage variables computed from input-output tables at the industry level yields much weaker, and usually insignificant, estimated effects. These patterns are consistent with spillover effects being rather proximate and localized.F23M16O16P23innovationFDIspillovershorizontal and vertical linkagesemerging marketsforeign competitionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5fv7d1dmarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt02j937nj2022-12-15T22:13:08Zqt02j937njDo foreign investment and trade spur innovation?Gorodnichenko, YuriySvejnar, JanTerrell, Katherine2020-01-01Our estimates, based on large firm-level and industry-level data sets from eighteen countries, suggest that FDI and trade have strong positive spillover effects on product and technology innovation by domestic firms in emerging markets. The FDI effect is more pronounced for firms from advanced economies. Moreover, our results indicate that the spillover effects can be detected with micro data at the firm-level, but that using linkage variables computed from input-output tables at the industry level yields much weaker, and usually insignificant, estimated effects. These patterns are consistent with spillover effects being rather proximate and localized.InnovationFDITradeSpilloversHorizontal and vertical linkagesEmerging marketsForeign competitionEntryF23M16O16P23emerging marketsforeign competitionhorizontal and vertical linkagesinnovationspilloversEconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/02j937njarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3km284p12022-12-14T17:59:54Zqt3km284p1The Value of School Facility Investments: Evidence from a Dynamic Regression Discontinuity DesignCellini, Stephanie RieggFerreira, FernandoRothstein, Jesse2010-02-01Despite extensive public infrastructure spending, surprisingly little is
known about its economic return. In this paper, we estimate the value of
school facility investments using housing markets: standard models of
local public goods imply that school districts should spend up to the
point where marginal increases would have zero effect on local housing
prices. Our research design isolates exogenous variation in investments by
comparing school districts where referenda on bond issues targeted to fund
capital expenditures passed and failed by narrow margins. We extend this
traditional regression discontinuity approach to identify the dynamic
treatment effects of bond authorization on local housing prices, student
achievement, and district composition. Our results indicate that
California school districts underinvest in school facilities: passing a
referendum causes immediate, sizable increases in home prices, implying a
willingness to pay on the part of marginal homebuyers of $1.50 or more for
each $1 of capital spending. These effects do not appear to be driven by
changes in the income or racial composition of homeowners, and the impact
on test scores appears to explain only a small portion of the total
housing price effect. (c) 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology..EconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3km284p1articleQuarterly Journal of Economics, vol 125, iss 1215 - 261oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1bp7t5x42022-12-14T17:59:42Zqt1bp7t5x4Teacher Quality in Educational Production: Tracking, Decay, and Student AchievementRothstein, Jesse2010-02-01Growing concerns over the inadequate achievement of U.S. students have led
to proposals to reward good teachers and penalize (or fire) bad ones. The
leading method for assessing teacher quality is "value added" modeling
(VAM), which decomposes students' test scores into components attributed
to student heterogeneity and to teacher quality. Implicit in the VAM
approach are strong assumptions about the nature of the educational
production function and the assignment of students to classrooms. In this
paper, I develop falsification tests for three widely used VAM
specifications, based on the idea that future teachers cannot influence
students' past achievement. In data from North Carolina, each of the VAMs'
exclusion restrictions is dramatically violated. In particular, these
models indicate large "effects" of fifth grade teachers on fourth grade
test score gains. I also find that conventional measures of individual
teachers' value added fade out very quickly and are at best weakly related
to long-run effects. I discuss implications for the use of VAMs as
personnel tools. (c) 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology..EconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1bp7t5x4articleQuarterly Journal of Economics, vol 125, iss 1175 - 214oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4wd737vp2022-12-14T17:59:38Zqt4wd737vpTeacher Quality Policy When Supply MattersRothstein, Jesse2022-12-14Recent proposals would strengthen the dependence of teacher pay and retention on performance, in order to attract those who will be effective teachers and repel those who will not. I model the teacher labor market, incorporating dynamic self-selection, noisy performance measurement, and Bayesian learning. Simulations indicate that labor market interactions are important to the evaluation of alternative teacher contracts. Typical bonus policies have very small effects on selection. Firing policies can have larger effects, if accompanied by substantial salary increases. However, misalignment between productivity and measured performance nearly eliminates the benefits while preserving most of the costs.I21J33publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4wd737vparticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1hm329062022-12-14T17:59:33Zqt1hm32906Student sorting and bias in value added estimation: Selection on observables and unobservablesRothstein, Jesse2022-12-14Non-random assignment of students to teachers can bias value added estimates of teachers' causal effects. Rothstein (2008a, b) shows that typical value added models indicate large counter-factual effects of 5th grade teachers on students' 4th grade learning, indicating that classroom assignments are far from random. This paper quantifies the resulting biases in estimates of 5th grade teachers' causal effects from several value added models, under varying assumptions about the assignment process. If assignments are assumed to depend only on observables, the most commonly used specifications are subject to important bias but other feasible specifications are nearly free of bias. I also consider the case where assignments depend on unobserved variables. I use the across-classroom variance of observables to calibrate several models of the sorting process. Results indicate that even the best feasible value added models may be substantially biased, with the magnitude of the bias depending on the amount of information available for use in classroom assignments.C12C52I21J33J45publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1hm32906articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3h50k1cr2022-12-14T17:00:28Zqt3h50k1crPrice setting in online markets: does IT click?Gorodnichenko, YuriySheremirov, ViacheslavTalavera, Oleksandr2015-01-01Using a unique dataset of daily U.S. and U.K. price listings and the associated number of clicks for precisely defined goods from a major shopping platform, this paper explores how prices are set in online markets, which have a number of special properties such as low search costs, low costs of monitoring competitors' prices, and low costs of nominal price adjustment. High-quality data are not only useful to estimate price rigidity and other properties of price adjustment in online commerce but also allow comparing the behavior of those properties with estimates available from brick-and-mortar stores.E3online marketspricesprice dispersionpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3h50k1crarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5q49g6vh2022-12-14T17:00:24Zqt5q49g6vhWhen Does FDI Have Positive Spillovers? Evidence from 17 Transition Market EconomiesGorodnichenko, YuriySvejnar, JanTerrell, Katherine2022-12-14We use rich firm-level data and national input-output tables from 17 countries over the 2002-2005 period to test new and existing hypotheses about the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the efficiency of domestic firms in the host country (i.e., spillovers). We document that backward linkages have a consistently positive effect on productivity of domestic firms while horizontal and forward linkages show no consistent effect. We also examine how the strength of spillovers varies by sector, FDI source, business environment (corruption, red tape, level of development), firm’s distance to the technological frontier, education of workers, and other firm- and country-specific characteristics.F23M16O16P23efficiencyFDIspilloverstransition economiespubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5q49g6vharticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt65b182zw2022-12-14T17:00:19Zqt65b182zwWhen Does FDI Have Positive Spillovers? Evidence from 17 Transition Market EconomiesGorodnichenko, YuriySvejnar, JanTerrell, Katherine2013-12-15We use rich firm-level data and national input-output tables from 17 countries over the 2002-2005 period to test new and existing hypotheses about the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the efficiency of domestic firms in the host country (i.e., spillovers). We document that backward linkages have a consistently positive effect on productivity of domestic firms while horizontal and forward linkages show no consistent effect. We also examine how the strength of spillovers varies by sector, FDI source, business environment (corruption, red tape, level of development), firm's distance to the technological frontier, education of workers, and other firm- and country-specific characteristics.F23M16O16P23FDIspilloverstransition economiesefficiencypubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/65b182zwarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1pf0g3xc2022-12-14T17:00:10Zqt1pf0g3xcThe Finnish Great Depression: From Russia with LoveGorodnichenko, YuriyMendoza, Enrique GTesar, Linda L2009-04-01During the period 1991-93, Finland experienced the deepest economic downturn in an industrialized country since the 1930s. We argue that the culprit behind this Great Depression was the collapse of Finnish trade with the Soviet Union, because it induced a costly restructuring of the manufacturing sector and a sudden, large increase in the cost of energy. We develop and calibrate a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with labor market frictions, and show that the collapse of Soviet-Finnish trade can explain key features of Finland's Great Depression. We also show that Finland's Great Depression mirrors the macroeconomic dynamics of the transition economies of Eastern Europe. These economies experienced a similar trade collapse. However, as a western democracy with developed capital markets and institutions, Finland faced none of the large institutional adjustments that other transition economies experienced. Thus, by studying the Finnish experience we isolate the adjustment costs due solely to the collapse of Soviet trade.E32F41P2publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1pf0g3xcarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1rc8r3cx2022-12-14T17:00:06Zqt1rc8r3cxGlobalization and innovation in emerging marketsGorodnichenko, YuriySvejnar, JanTerell, Katherine2022-12-14Globalization brings opportunities and pressures for domestic firms in emerging markets to innovate and improve their competitive position. Using data on firms in 27 emerging market economies, we estimate the effects of foreign competition, vertical linkages with foreign firms, and international trade on several types of innovation by domestic firms. Using instrumental variables and a battery of checks, we provide robust evidence of a positive relationship between foreign competition and innovation and show that the supply chain of multinational enterprises and international trade are also important channels. There is no evidence for an inverted U relationship between innovation and foreign competition. The relationship between globalization and innovation does not differ across the manufacturing and service sectors.F23M16O16P23publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1rc8r3cxarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6q3948m72022-12-14T17:00:01Zqt6q3948m7The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian ModelsCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWieland, Johannes2010-06-15We study the effects of positive steady-state inflation in New Keynesian models subject to the zero bound on interest rates. We derive the utility-based welfare loss function taking into account the effects of positive steady-state inflation and show that steady-state inflation affects welfare through three distinct channels: steady-state effects, the magnitude of the coefficients in the utility-function approximation, and the dynamics of the model. We solve for the optimal level of
inflation in the model and find that, for plausible calibrations, the optimal inflation rate is low,
less than two percent, even after considering a variety of extensions, including price indexation,
endogenous price stickiness, capital formation, model uncertainty, and downward nominal wage
rigidities. On the normative side, price level targeting delivers large welfare gains and a very low
optimal inflation rate consistent with price stability.E3E4E5Optimal inflationNew Keynesianzero boundprice level targetingOptimal InflationZero BoundPrice Level TargetingpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6q3948m7articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8tn9c8cc2022-12-14T16:59:57Zqt8tn9c8ccMyth and Reality of Flat Tax Reform: Tax Evasion and Real Side Response of Russian HouseholdsGorodnichenko, YuriyMartinez-Vazquez, JorgePeter, Klara Sabirianova2007-12-01We use detailed micro-level data on consumption and income for a 1998-2004 panel of Russian households to study the effects of the flat income tax reform in 2001. We show that the gap between household expenditures and reported income is a meaningful measure of tax evasion. We use the difference-indifference and regression discontinuity approaches to assess the response of tax evasion and worker productivity to the flat tax. We find that the tax evasion response (10-12%) is larger than the productivity response (0-4%), and thus increased tax revenues and reported earnings are largely driven by improved tax compliance.tax evasionconsumption-income gappersonal income taxflat taxdifference-indifferenceregression discontinuitytransitionRussia.publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8tn9c8ccarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt918644n12022-12-14T16:59:44Zqt918644n1Financial constraints and innovation: Why poor countries don't catchupGorodnichenko, YuriySchnitzer, Monika2022-12-14We examine micro-level channels of how financial development can affect macroeconomic outcomes like the level of income and export intensity. We investigate theoretically and empirically how financial constraints affect a firm's innovation and export activities, using unique firm survey data which provides direct measures for innovations and firm-specific financial constraints. We find that financial constraints restraint heability of domestically owned firms to innovate and export and hence to catch up to the technological frontiers. This negative effect is amplified as financial constraints force export and innovation activities to become substitutes although they are generally natural complements.O3O16F1G3innovationproductivityfinancial constraintexporttechnology frontierBEEPSpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/918644n1articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4pq6m40f2022-12-14T16:59:36Zqt4pq6m40fMonetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation:An Alternative InterpretationCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, Yuriy2010-09-15With positive trend inflation, the Taylor principle is not enough to guarantee a
determinate equilibrium. We provide new theoretical results on restoring determinacy in
New Keynesian models with positive trend inflation and combine these with new
empirical findings on the Federal Reserve’s reaction function before and after the
Volcker disinflation to find that 1) while the Fed likely satisfied the Taylor principle in the
pre-Volcker era, the US economy was still subject to self-fulfilling fluctuations in the
1970s, 2) the US economy moved from indeterminacy to determinacy during the
Volcker disinflation, and 3) the switch from indeterminacy to determinacy was due to the
changes in the Fed’s response to macroeconomic variables and the decline in trend
inflation during the Volcker disinflation.C22E3E43E5Trend inflationDeterminacyGreat ModerationMonetary Policy.publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4pq6m40farticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8m54k69f2022-10-15T09:47:14Zqt8m54k69fCORRESPONDENCE: Temperature and violenceCane, Mark AMiguel, EdwardBurke, MarshallHsiang, Solomon MLobell, David BMeng, Kyle CSatyanath, Shanker2014-01-01Atmospheric SciencesPhysical Geography and Environmental GeoscienceEnvironmental Science and Managementapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8m54k69farticleNATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, vol 4, iss 4234 - 235oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt73c8q5wx2022-08-13T04:33:34Zqt73c8q5wxMeasuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy (vol 4, pg 1, 2012)Auerbach, Alan JGorodnichenko, Yuriy2013-01-01Applied EconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/73c8q5wxarticleAMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY, vol 5, iss 3320 - 322oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5wh5w14k2022-07-20T08:14:03Zqt5wh5w14kDoes Policy Communication during COVID Work?Coibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2022-01-01subjective expectationsfiscal policymonetary policyCOVID-19surveysEconomic TheoryApplied EconomicsBankingFinance and Investmentapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5wh5w14karticleINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CENTRAL BANKING, vol 18, iss 13 - 39oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4wr6v2gw2022-07-16T13:44:06Zqt4wr6v2gwTrade, Domestic Frictions, and Scale EffectsRamondo, NataliaRodríguez-Clare, AndrésSaborío-Rodríguez, Milagro2016-10-01Because of scale effects, idea-based growth models imply that larger countries should be much richer than smaller ones. New trade models share the same counterfactual feature. In fact, new trade models exhibit other counterfactual implications associated with scale effects: import shares decrease and relative income levels increase too steeply with country size. We argue that these implications are largely a result of the standard assumption that countries are fully integrated domestically. We depart from this assumption by treating countries as collections of regions that face positive costs to trade among themselves. The resulting model is largely consistent with the data.F11F14F43O47R12publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4wr6v2gwarticleAmerican Economic Review, vol 106, iss 10oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0rt318xq2022-04-02T10:22:49Zqt0rt318xqRetail Globalization and Household Welfare: Evidence from MexicoAtkin, DavidFaber, BenjaminGonzalez-Navarro, Marco2015-05-01The arrival of global retail chains in developing countries is causing a radical transformation in the way that households source their consumption. This paper draws on a new collection of Mexican microdata to estimate the effect of foreign supermarket entry on household welfare. The richness of the microdata allows us to estimate a general expression for the gains from retail FDI, and to decompose these gains into several distinct channels. We find that foreign retail entry causes large and significant welfare gains for the average household that are mainly driven by a reduction in the cost of living. About one quarter of this price index effect is due to pro-competitive effects on the prices charged by domestic stores, with the remaining three quarters due to the direct consumer gains from shopping at the new foreign stores. We find little evidence of significant changes in average municipality-level incomes or employment. We do, however, find evidence of store exit, adverse effects on domestic store profits and reductions in the incomes of traditional retail sector workers. Finally, we show that the gains from retail FDI are on average positive for all income groups but regressive, and quantify the opposing forces that underlie this finding.F15F23F63O24Supermarket revolutionforeign direct investmentgains from tradepubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0rt318xqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0zp1944k2022-03-17T21:16:31Zqt0zp1944kDoes Policy Communication during COVID Work?Coibion, OGorodnichenko, YWeber, M2022-03-01Using a large-scale survey of U.S. households during the COVID-19 pandemic, we study how new information about fiscal and monetary policy responses to the crisis affects households’ expectations. We provide random subsets of participants in the Nielsen Homescan panel with different combinations of information about the severity of the pandemic, recent actions by the Federal Reserve, stimulus measures, as well as recommendations from health officials. This experiment allows us to assess to what extent these policy announcements alter the beliefs and spending plans of households. In short, they do not, contrary to the powerful effects they have in standard macroeconomic models.E31C83D84J26Economic TheoryApplied EconomicsBankingFinance and Investmentapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0zp1944karticleInternational Journal of Central Banking, vol 2022, iss 723 - 39oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1dp7s36h2021-11-20T01:14:32Zqt1dp7s36hReflections on Indian political economyBardhan, P2015-05-02Thirty years after The Political Economy of Development in India was published, its author explores what has changed and what has not changed in India today.EconomicsStudies in Human Societyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1dp7s36harticleEconomic and Political Weekly, vol 50, iss 1814 - 17oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6m95b34x2021-07-07T04:11:36Zqt6m95b34xThe Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer SpendingCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2020-05-01publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6m95b34xarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0r88n40k2021-05-02T14:22:08Zqt0r88n40kFiscal multipliers in JapanAuerbach, Alan JGorodnichenko, Yuriy2017-01-01In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for Japan, following the approach used previously for a panel of OECD countries (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko, 2013). This approach allows multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and uses real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. For a sample period extending from 1960 to 2012, estimates for Japan are quite consistent with those previously estimated for the OECD as well as those estimated using a slightly different methodology for the United States (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko, 2012). However, estimates based only on more recent observations are less stable and provide weaker support for the effectiveness of government purchases at stimulating economic activity, particularly in recession, although cyclical patterns in Japan make the dating of recessions a challenge.Fiscal multiplierBusiness cycleJapanpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0r88n40karticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8s21f6sg2021-05-02T03:31:02Zqt8s21f6sgEffects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized WorldAuerbach, Alan JGorodnichenko, Yuriy2016-05-01Although theoretical models consistently predict that government spending shocks should lead to appreciation of the domestic currency, empirical studies have regularly found depreciation. Using daily data on U.S. defense spending (announced and actual payments), the paper documents that the dollar immediately and strongly appreciates after announcements about future government spending. In contrast, actual payments lead to no discernible effect on the exchange rate. It examines the responses of other variables at the daily frequency and explores how the response of the exchange rate to fiscal shocks varies over the business cycle as well as at the zero lower bound and in normal times.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8s21f6sgarticleIMF Economic Review, vol 64, iss 1177 - 215oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt91b2d4g82021-05-02T00:33:43Zqt91b2d4g8Culture, Institutions and DemocratizationGorodnichenko, YuriyRoland, Gérard2015-04-01We construct a model of revolution and transition to democracy under individualistic and collectivist cultures. The main result is that, despite facing potentially larger collective action problems, countries with an individualistic culture are more likely to end up adopting democracy earlier than countries with a collectivist culture. Our empirical analysis suggests a strong and robust association between individualistic culture and average polity scores and length of democracy, even after controlling for other determinants of democracy emphasized in the literature. We provide evidence that countries with collectivist culture are also more likely to experience autocratic breakdowns and transitions from autocracy to autocracy.H1P48Z1collective actioncollectivismculturedemocratizationindividualismpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/91b2d4g8articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1sq6j4x22021-05-02T00:33:40Zqt1sq6j4x2Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and ExpansionAuerbach, AlanGorodnichenko, Yuriy2011-09-01In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for a large number of OECD countries, allowing these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and using real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We adapt our previous methodology (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko, 2011) to use direct projections rather than the SVAR approach to estimate multipliers, to economize on degrees of freedom and to relax the assumptions on impulse response functions imposed by the SVAR method. Our findings confirm those of our earlier paper. In particular, GDP multipliers of government purchases are larger in recession, and controlling for real-time predictions of government purchases tends to increase the estimated multipliers of government purchases in recession. We also consider the responses of other key macroeconomic variables and find that these responses generally vary over the cycle as well, in a pattern consistent with the varying impact on GDP.E32E62publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1sq6j4x2articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8h8405fk2021-03-31T16:15:20Zqt8h8405fkMonetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative InterpretationGorodnichenko, YuriyCoibion, Olivier2009-01-01With positive trend inflation, the Taylor principle is not enough to guarantee a determinate equilibrium. We provide new theoretical results on restoring determinacy in New Keynesian models with positive trend inflation and combine these with new empirical findings on the Federal Reserve’s reaction function before and after the Volcker disinflation to find that 1) while the Fed satisfied the Taylor principle in the pre-Volcker era, the US economy was still subject to self-fulfilling fluctuations in the 1970s, 2) while the Fed’s response to inflation is not statistically different before and after the Volcker disinflation, the US economy nonetheless moved from indeterminacy to determinacy in this time period, 3) since the 1970s, the Fed has largely switched from responding to the output gap to responding to output growth, and 4) the change from indeterminacy to determinacy is due to the simultaneous decrease in the response to the output gap, increases in the response to inflation and output growth and the decline in steady-state inflation from the Volcker disinflation.publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8h8405fkarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7gp493vr2021-03-31T16:02:57Zqt7gp493vrAre Oligarchs Productive? Theory and EvidenceGorodnichenko, YuriyGrygorenko, Yegor2005-12-15This paper develops a partial equilibrium model to account for stylized
facts about the behavior of oligarchs, politically and economically
strong conglomerates in transition and developing countries. The model
predicts that oligarchs are more likely than other owners to invest in
productivity enhancing projects and to vertically integrate firms to
capture the gains from possible synergies and, thus, oligarchs can be
socially beneficial. Using a unique dataset comprising almost 2,000
Ukrainian open joint stock companies, the paper tests empirical
implications of the model. In contrast to commonly held views,
econometric results suggest that, after controlling for endogeneity of
ownership, oligarchs tend to improve the performance of the firms they
own relative to other firms.C21C25D24O17P26P31Oligarchtransitionfirm performanceproperty rightstreatment effectpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7gp493vrarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt68n238zb2021-03-31T16:01:05Zqt68n238zbThe Finnish Depression: From Russia with loveTesar, LindaMendoza, EnriqueGorodnichenko, Yuriy2008-01-01During the period 1990-93, Finland experienced the deepest economic downturn in an industrialized country since the 1930s. We argue that the collapse of the Finnish trade with the Soviet Union in and of itself resulted in a large contraction of the economy and a costly restructuring of the manufacturing sector, similar to the transition suffered by countries in Eastern Europe. Interestingly, Finland and transition countries experience almost identical “U-shaped” dynamics of output in the early 1990s. Finland experienced the full force of the Soviet trade shock, but as a western democracy with fully developed capital markets and a well-functioning legal and political system, faced none of the institutional adjustments experienced in the formerly centrally-planned economies. Thus, by studying the Finnish experience it is possible to separate the adjustment costs due to the collapse of trade from the other burdens of adjustment borne by transition economies. Importantly, unlike previous analyses of depressions, we have an exogenous shock with known timing. We develop and calibrate a multi-sector model of the Finnish economy and show that the collapse of Soviet-Finnish trade can indeed explain a bulk of the recession in Finland. We draw a number of policy implications.publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/68n238zbarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2gk5g97c2021-03-31T16:00:36Zqt2gk5g97cWhat can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?Gorodnichenko, YuriyCoibion, Olivier2010-01-01This paper assesses both the support for and the properties of informational rigidities faced by agents. Specifically, we track the impulse responses of mean forecast errors and disagreement among agents after exogenous structural shocks. Our key contribution is to document that in response to structural shocks, mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact, leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information: the half life of forecast errors is roughly between 6 months and a year. Importantly, the dynamic process followed by forecast errors following structural shocks is consistent with the predictions of models of informational rigidities. We interpret this finding as providing support for the recent expansion of research into models of informational rigidities. In addition, we document several stylized facts about the conditional responses of forecast errors and disagreement among agents that can be used to differentiate between some of the models of informational rigidities recently proposed. We use a variety of structural shocks, expectation surveys, and robustness checks to establish these facts about informational rigidities.expectationsinformation rigiditysurvey forecastspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2gk5g97carticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1ms4f9072021-03-31T15:56:56Zqt1ms4f907The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?Gorodnichenko, YuriyWieland, JohannesCoibion, Olivier2012-01-01We study the effects of positive steady-state inflation in New Keynesian models subject to the zero bound on interest rates. We derive the utility-based welfare loss function taking into account the effects of positive steady-state inflation and solve for the optimal level of inflation in the model. For plausible calibrations with costly but infrequent episodes at the zero-lower bound, the optimal inflation rate is low, typically less than two percent, even after considering a variety of extensions, including optimal stabilization policy, price indexation, endogenous and state- dependent price stickiness, capital formation, model-uncertainty, and downward nominal wage rigidities. On the normative side, price level targeting delivers large welfare gains and a very low optimal inflation rate consistent with price stability. These results suggest that raising the inflation target is too blunt an instrument to efficiently reduce the severe costs of zero-bound episodes.publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1ms4f907articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1nm9b7tm2021-03-31T15:56:07Zqt1nm9b7tmFinancial constraints and innovation: Why poor countries don't catch upGorodnichenko, YuriySchnitzer, Monika2013-01-01This paper examines micro-level channels through which financial development can affect such macroeconomic outcomes as level of income. Specifically, we investigate theoretically and empirically how financial constraints affect a firm’s innovation activities. Theoretical predictions are tested using unique firm survey data, which provide direct measures for innovations and firm-specific financial constraints, as well as information on shocks to firms’ internal funds that serve as firm-level instruments for financial constraints. We find unambiguous evidence that financial constraints restrain the ability of domestically owned firms to innovate and hence to catch up to the technological frontier.publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1nm9b7tmarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9p1853jp2021-03-31T15:54:52Zqt9p1853jpCulture and Global SourcingKukharskyy, BohdanGorodnichenko, YuriyRoland, Gerard2015-01-01This paper develops a model of global sourcing with culturally dissimilar countries. Production of final goods requires the coordination of decisions between the headquarter of a multinational firm and managers of their component suppliers. Managers of both units are assumed to have strong beliefs about the right course of action and are reluctant to adjust their decisions. We then characterize the optimal allocation of decision rights across firms when contracts are incomplete. Our theoretical model delivers two key predictions: An incentive of a firm to integrate (rather than outsource) its input supply is decreasing in cultural distance between the home and the host country and decreasing in trade cost between the two countries. Combining data from the U.S. Census Bureau s Related Party Trade with various measures for cultural distance and trade cost, we find empirical evidence broadly supportive of these two predictions.F14F23L23cultural distanceglobal sourcingorganization of multinational firmsproperty rightsvertical integrationpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9p1853jparticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt723747g52021-03-31T15:54:17Zqt723747g5Price setting in online markets: Basic facts, international comparisons, and cross-border integrationTalavera, OleksandrGorodnichenko, Yuriy2015-01-01We document basic facts about prices in online markets in the U.S. and Canada, a rapidly growing segment of the retail sector. Relative to prices in regular stores, prices in online markets are more flexible as well as exhibit stronger pass-through (60-75 percent) and faster convergence (half-life less than 2 months) in response to movements of the nominal exchange rate. Multiple margins of adjustment (frequency of price changes, direction of price changes, size of price changes, exit of sellers) are active in the process of responding to nominal exchange rate shocks. Furthermore, we use the richness of our dataset to show that degree of competition, stickiness of prices, synchronization of price changes, reputation of sellers, and returns to search effort are important determinants of pass-through and speed of price adjustment for international price differentials.E31F41F40publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/723747g5articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt15k6d98m2021-03-02T00:47:48Zqt15k6d98mMeasuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisisBartik, AlexanderBertrand, MarianneLin, FengRothstein, JesseUnrath, Matthew2020-08-01We use traditional and non-traditional data to measure the collapse and partial recovery of the U.S. labor market from March to early July, contrast this downturn to previous recessions, and provide preliminary evidence on the effects of the policy response. For hourly workers at both small and large businesses, nearly all of the decline in employment occurred between March 14 and 28. It was driven by low-wage services, particularly the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors. A large share of the job losses in small businesses reflected firms that closed entirely, though many subsequently reopened. Firms that were already unhealthy were more likely to close and less likely to reopen, and disadvantaged workers were more likely to be laid off and less likely to return. Most laid off workers expected to be recalled, and this was predictive of rehiring. Shelter-in-place orders drove only a small share of job losses. Last, states that received more small business loans from the Paycheck Protection Program and states with more generous unemployment insurance benefits had milder declines and faster recoveries. We find no evidence that high UI replacement rates drove job losses or slowed rehiring.This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grant MRP-19-600774.MRPI Grant MRP-19-600774application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/15k6d98marticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt146787632020-11-21T03:52:41Zqt14678763Can Nudges Increase Take-up of the EITC?: Evidence from Multiple Field ExperimentsLinos, ElizabethProhofsky, AllenRamesh, AparnaRothstein, JesseUnrath, Matt2020-01-01publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/14678763articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6mw3m54j2020-08-22T17:26:52Zqt6mw3m54jThe Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential OutputCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyUlate, Mauricio2018-01-01Great Recessionoutputshockstrendsmonetary policyApplied EconomicsEconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6mw3m54jarticleBROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, vol 49, iss 2 (Fall)343 - 441oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1kn8z5xw2020-08-22T17:26:22Zqt1kn8z5xwWhen does FDI have positive spillovers? Evidence from 17 transition market economiesGorodnichenko, YuriySvejnar, JanTerrell, Katherine2014-01-01We use rich firm-level data and national input–output tables from 17 countries over the 2002–2005 period to test new and existing hypotheses about the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the efficiency of domestic firms in the host country (i.e., spillovers). We document that backward linkages have a consistently positive effect on productivity of domestic firms while horizontal and forward linkages show no consistent effect. We also examine how the strength of spillovers varies by sector, FDI source, institutional environment (corruption, red tape, level of development), firm’s distance to the technological frontier, and other firm- and country-specific characteristics.F23 M16 O16 P23FDISpilloversInstitutionsTransition economiesEfficiencyefficiencyspilloverstransition economiespubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1kn8z5xwarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2vw3x5hm2020-08-22T17:22:11Zqt2vw3x5hmThe Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications: ReplyCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyHong, Gee Hee2019-01-01We address how using different censoring thresholds and imputation procedures affects the baseline results of Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Hong (2015). Higher censoring thresholds introduce measurement error and outliers that generate wide variability in results across weighting schemes, but methods that explicitly control for outliers confirm the results of Coibion et al. (2015) for all censoring thresholds. We also illustrate how the BLS's approach to imputing missing prices can introduce a cyclical bias into measures of posted price inflation when store-switching is present in the data.D12E31E32L25L81publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2vw3x5hmarticleAmerican Economic Review, vol 109, iss 1oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7rx7t91p2020-08-22T17:20:14Zqt7rx7t91pLabor Markets During the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary ViewCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2020-04-01publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7rx7t91particleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9423z4pf2020-08-21T23:23:20Zqt9423z4pfInnocent Bystanders? Monetary policy and inequalityCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyKueng, LorenzSilvia, John2017-01-01We study the effects of monetary policy shocks on—and their historical contribution to—consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980 as measured by the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Contractionary monetary policy systematically increases inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary policy shocks account for a non-trivial component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document some of the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.Monetary policyIncome inequalityConsumption inequalityIncome InequalityConsumption InequalityExternal ShocksIncome DistributionPricesBusiness FluctuationsAnd Cyclesmoney And Interest Ratesmonetary PolicyCentral BankingAnd The Supply Of Money And Creditapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9423z4pfarticleIMF Working Paper, vol 88, iss C70 - 89oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4nc5400j2020-08-21T23:17:49Zqt4nc5400jHow Does Consumption Respond to News About Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control TrialCoibion, OlivierGeorgarakos, DimitrisGorodnichenko, Yuriy<!>van Rooij, Maarten2019-07-01publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4nc5400jarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3zh865pj2020-08-21T23:17:29Zqt3zh865pjHow Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control TrialCoibion, OlivierGeorgarakos, DimitrisGorodnichenko, Yuriy<!>van Rooij, Maarten2019-07-18survey datainflation expectationshouseholdsdurable and non-durable consumptionrandomized control trialpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3zh865pjarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6w1837rg2020-08-21T23:12:29Zqt6w1837rgForward Guidance and Household ExpectationsCoibion, OlivierGeorgarakos, DimitrisGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2020-02-01publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6w1837rgarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt90t9q1mx2020-08-21T23:11:39Zqt90t9q1mxFiscal Stimulus and Fiscal SustainabilityAuerbach, Alan JGorodnichenko, Yuriy2017-09-01publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/90t9q1mxarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7t8237jb2020-08-21T23:05:34Zqt7t8237jbDoes Policy Communication During Covid Work?Coibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2020-06-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7t8237jbarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1766k8hs2020-08-21T23:01:52Zqt1766k8hsDoes Foreign Entry Spur Innovation?Gorodnichenko, YuriySvejnar, JanTerrell, Katherine2015-09-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1766k8hsarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4zv6858c2020-08-21T22:58:35Zqt4zv6858cCulture, Institutions, and the Wealth of NationsGorodnichenko, YuriyRoland, Gerard2017-07-01We argue that a more individualist culture leads to more innovation and to higher growth because of the social status rewards associated with innovation in that culture. We use data on the frequency of particular genes associated with collectivist cultures, as well as a measure of distance in terms of frequencies of blood types, and historic prevalence of pathogens to instrument individualism scores. The relationship between individualism and innovation/growth remains strong even after controlling for institutions and other potentially confounding factors. We also provide evidence consistent with two-way causality between culture and institutions.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4zv6858carticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7h4584d12020-08-21T22:50:03Zqt7h4584d1Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence from the Stock MarketGorodnichenko, YuriyWeber, Michael2016-01-01We show that after monetary policy announcements, the conditional volatility of stock market returns rises more for firms with stickier prices than for firms with more flexible prices. This differential reaction is economically large and strikingly robust to a broad array of checks. These results suggest that menu costs—broadly defined to include physical costs of price adjustment, informational frictions, etc.—are an important factor for nominal price rigidity at the micro level. We also show that our empirical results are qualitatively and, under plausible calibrations, quantitatively consistent with New Keynesian macroeconomic models in which firms have heterogeneous price stickiness. (JEL E12, E31, E43, E44, E52, G12, L11)E12E31E43E44E52G12L11application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7h4584d1articleAmerican Economic Review, vol 106, iss 1oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8878h9r22020-08-21T22:49:00Zqt8878h9r2A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local ProjectionsGorodnichenko, YuriyLee, Byoungchan2017-11-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8878h9r2articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7b84w7hh2020-07-17T22:03:06Zqt7b84w7hhGeneral equilibrium effects of cash transfers: experimental evidence from KenyaEgger, DennisHaushofer, JohannesMiguel, EdwardNiehaus, PaulWalker, Michael2020-07-17application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7b84w7hharticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt42k8h7mp2020-02-18T19:12:08Zqt42k8h7mpChapter 10 External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation EffectsGourinchas, Pierre-OlivierRey, Hélène2014-01-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/42k8h7mpchapteroai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt12h446pb2020-01-17T12:49:02Zqt12h446pbFINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS AND INNOVATION: WHY POOR COUNTRIES DON'T CATCH UPGorodnichenko, YuriySchnitzer, Monika2013-10-01EconomicspubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/12h446pbarticleJournal of the European Economic Association, vol 11, iss 51115 - 1152oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7z60j6482020-01-09T01:00:25Zqt7z60j648Firm Heterogeneity in Consumption Baskets: Evidence from Home and Store Scanner DataFaber, BenjaminFally, Thibault2017-08-04application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7z60j648articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt51b9d62q2019-12-12T17:06:21Zqt51b9d62qDoes Household Electrification Supercharge Economic Development?Lee, KennethMiguel, EdwardWolfram, Catherine2019-12-12In recent years, electrification has re-emerged as a key priority in low-income countries, with a particular focus on electrifying households. Yet the microeconomic literature examining the impacts of electrifying households on economic development has produced a set of conflicting results. Does household electrification lead to measurable gains in living standards or not? Focusing on grid electrification, we discuss how the divergent conclusions across the literature can be explained by differences in methods, interventions, potential for spillovers, and populations. We then use experimental data from Lee, Miguel, and Wolfram (2019) — a field experiment that connected randomly-selected households to the grid in rural Kenya— to show that impacts can vary even across individuals in neighboring villages. Specifically, we show that households that were willing to pay more for a grid electrification may gain more from electrification compared to households that would only connect for free. We conclude that access to household electrification alone is not enough to drive meaningful gains in development outcomes. Instead, future initiatives may work better if paired with complementary inputs that allow people to do more with power.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/51b9d62qarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9nb2h6hm2019-09-17T17:56:33Zqt9nb2h6hmThe Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy ImplicationsCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyHong, Gee Hee2015-03-01We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes, and average prices paid by consumers ("effective" prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many US metropolitan areas. Inflation in the effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment while little change occurs in the inflation rate of prices posted by retailers. This difference reflects the reallocation of household expenditures across retailers, a feature of the data which we document and quantify, rather than sales. We propose a simple model with household store-switching and assess its implications for business cycles and policymakers. (JEL D12, E31, E32, L25, L81)D12E31E32L25L81EconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and ServicespubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9nb2h6hmarticleAmerican Economic Review, vol 105, iss 3993 - 1029oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt56b0d2gj2019-09-17T17:55:50Zqt56b0d2gjInformation Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New FactsCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, Yuriy2015-08-01We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to US and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process. (JEL C53, D83, D84, E13, E31, E37)C53D83D84E13E31E37EconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and ServicespubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/56b0d2gjarticleAmerican Economic Review, vol 105, iss 8oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0hj3w6k22019-09-17T17:54:28Zqt0hj3w6k2Price Setting in Online Markets: Basic Facts, International Comparisons, and Cross-Border IntegrationGorodnichenko, YuriyTalavera, Oleksandr2017-01-01We document basic facts about prices in online markets in the United States and Canada, which is a rapidly growing segment of the retail sector. Relative to prices in regular stores, prices in online markets are more flexible and exhibit stronger pass-through (60-75 percent) and faster convergence (half-life less than two months) in response to movements of the nominal exchange rate. Multiple margins of adjustment are active in the process of responding to nominal exchange rate shocks. Properties of goods, sellers, and markets are systematically related to pass-through and the speed of price adjustment for international price differentials.F31F41L11L81EconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and ServicespubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0hj3w6k2articleAmerican Economic Review, vol 107, iss 1oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt48d9297z2019-09-17T17:53:57Zqt48d9297zHow Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey EvidenceCoibion, OlivierGorodnichenko, YuriyKumar, Saten2018-09-01We survey New Zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs. There is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation. This dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms' incentives to collect and process information. Using experimental methods, we find that firms update their beliefs in a Bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decisions. Inflation is not generally perceived as being important to business decisions so firms devote few resources to collecting and processing information about inflation.D22D83D84E31E52EconomicsCommerceManagementTourism and ServicespubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/48d9297zarticleAmerican Economic Review, vol 108, iss 92671 - 2713oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt52g9k54w2019-09-10T16:41:26Zqt52g9k54wUsing Survey Questions to Measure Preferences: Lessons from an Experimental Validation in KenyaBauer, MichalChytilová, JulieMiguel, Edward2019-09-06Can a short survey instrument reliably measure a range of fundamental economic preferences across diverse settings? We focus on survey questions that systematically predict behavior in incentivized experimental tasks among German university students (Becker et al. 2016) and were implemented among representative samples across the globe (Falk et al. 2018). This paper presents results of an experimental validation conducted among low-income individuals in Nairobi, Kenya. We find that quantitative survey measures -- hypothetical versions of experimental tasks -- of time preference, attitude to risk and altruism are good predictors of choices in incentivized experiments, suggesting these measures are broadly experimentally valid. At the same time, we find that qualitative questions -- self-assessments -- do not correlate with the experimental measures of preferences in the Kenyan sample. Thus, caution is needed before treating self-assessments as proxies of preferences in new contexts.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/52g9k54warticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0060356p2019-07-10T17:48:42Zqt0060356pScabs: The Social Suppression of LaborBreza, EmilyKaur, SupreetKrishnaswamy, Nandita2019-07-10Social norms have the potential to alter the functioning of economic markets. We test whether norms shape the aggregate labor supply curve by preventing workers from supplying labor at wage cuts—leading decentralized individuals to implicitly behave as a cartel to maintain wage floors in their local labor markets. We partner with 183 existing employers, who offer jobs to 502 workers in informal spot labor markets in India. Unemployed workers are privately willing to accept jobs below the prevailing wage, but rarely do so when this choice is observable to other workers. In contrast, social observability does not affect labor supply at the prevailing wage. Workers give up 49% of average weekly earnings to avoid being seen as breaking the social norm. In addition, workers pay to punish anonymous laborers who have accepted wage cuts—indicating that cartel behavior is reinforced through the threat of social sanctions. Punishment occurs for workers in one’s own labor market and for those in distant regions, suggesting the internalization of norms in moral terms. Finally, consistent with the idea that norms could have aggregate implications, measures of social cohesion correlate with downward wage rigidity and business cycle volatility across India.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0060356particleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2c9198nw2019-06-25T17:15:05Zqt2c9198nwDestructive Behavior, Judgment, and Economic Decision-Making Under Thermal StressAlmås, IngvildAuffhammer, MaxBold, TessaBolliger, IanDembo, AlumaHsiang, SolomonKitamura, ShuheiMiguel, EdwardPickmans, Robert2019-04-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2c9198nwarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5ht9v8vn2018-12-04T20:52:50Zqt5ht9v8vnUsing RCTs to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development EconomicsBouguen, AdrienHuang, YueKremer, MichaelMiguel, Edward2018-12-04Development EconomicsRCTsrandomized control trialslong-runapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5ht9v8vnarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9wc1n59r2018-08-09T08:21:41Zqt9wc1n59rThe Great Recession and its Aftermath: What Role for Structural Changes?Rothstein, J2016-07-01publiceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9wc1n59rarticleThe Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, vol 3, iss 3oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4kg5748m2018-04-16T23:23:28Zqt4kg5748mThe Earned Income Tax Credit: a key policy to support families facing wage stagnationHoynes, Hilary2017-01-10The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has been supporting the incomes of low-income working families since 1975. It is now a major anti-poverty program for both adults and children. This brief provides an overview of how the Earned Income Tax Credit supports families in a context of wage stagnation and encourages work. Together with the Child Tax Credit, the EITC lifted 9.2 million people, including 4.8 million children, out of poverty in 2015. It has long-lasting benefits on maternal and children’s health and on children’s development. The EITC has therefore positive effects beyond its direct cash value to recipients.EITCEarned IncomeTax Creditfamilieswagestagnationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kg5748marticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3sw9b76s2018-04-13T23:48:18Zqt3sw9b76sIs Uncle Sam Inducing the Elderly to Retire?Auerbach, Alan2017-02-28Social Security was originally created to provide a basic floor for retirees’ living standards. However, many Americans – and in particular an increasing number of Baby Boomers – rely on Social Security as their major source of retirement income. There is a gap between what Social Security can provide at current funding levels, and what Americans expect it to provide. Many Baby Boomers appear at risk of suffering a major decline in their living standard in retirement. Since the government is not likely to expand Social Security in the short term, Baby Boomers should not be discouraged from increasing their lifetime earnings by working harder and longer. In a recent paper, 1 my colleagues and I measure the work disincentives confronted by people aged 50-79, based on an evaluation of the entire array of explicit federal and state taxes and implicit taxes arising from the loss of benefits as one earns more. We find that these work disincentives are much higher than suggested by previous research. Working longer can raise older workers’ living standards, but those additional earnings are effectively taxed at a high rate (typically between 40-60%). Reducing these work disincentives could help increase the lifetime earnings of retirees and thereby reduce poverty rates among the elderly.RetirementElderlySocial Securityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3sw9b76sarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt87d6v10j2018-04-12T15:16:18Zqt87d6v10jTax Policy Toward Low-Income FamiliesHoynes, HilaryRothstein, Jesse2016-03-01In this paper, we review the most prominent provision of the federal income tax code that targets low-income tax filers, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), as well as the structurally similar Child Tax Credit (CTC). We frame the paper around what we see as the programs’ goals: distributional, promoting work, and limiting administrative and compliance costs. We review what is known about program impacts and distributional consequences under current law, drawing on simulations from the Tax Policy Center. We conclude that the EITC is quite successful in meeting its three goals. In contrast, most of the benefits of the CTC go to higher income households. In addition to analyzing current law, we assess possible reforms that would reach groups – for the EITC, those without children; for the CTC, those with very low earnings – who are largely missed under current policy.Tax Policy Toward Low-Income Familiesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/87d6v10jarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5gq4j7kq2018-04-12T15:15:25Zqt5gq4j7kqRevisiting the Impacts of TeachersRothstein, Jesse2017-01-01Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff (2014a, 2014b) study value-added (VA) measures of teacher effectiveness. CFR (2014a) exploits teacher switching as a quasi-experiment, concluding that student sorting creates negligible bias in VA scores. CFR (2014b) finds VA scores are useful proxies for teachers’ effects on students’ long-run outcomes. I successfully reproduce each in North Carolina data. But I find that the quasi-experiment is invalid, as teacher switching is correlated with changes in student preparedness. Adjusting for this, I find moderate bias in VA scores, perhaps 10-35% as large, in variance terms, as teachers’ causal effects. Long-run results are sensitive to controls and cannot support strong conclusions.impactsteachersrevisitingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5gq4j7kqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt02t2c4nn2018-04-12T15:14:07Zqt02t2c4nnInequality of Educational Opportunity? Schools as Mediators of the Intergenerational Transmission of IncomeRothstein, Jesse2017-04-01Chetty et al. (2014) show that children from low-income families achieve much better adult outcomes, relative to those from higher-income families, in some places than in others. I use data from several national surveys to investigate whether children’s educational outcomes (educational attainment, test scores, and non-cognitive skills) mediate the relationship between parental and child income. Commuting zones (CZs) with stronger intergenerational income transmission tend to have stronger transmission of parental income to children’s educational attainment, as well as higher returns to education. By contrast, the CZ-level association between parental income and children’s test scores is only weakly related to CZ income transmission, and is stable across grades. There is thus little evidence that differences in the quality of K-12 schooling are a key mechanism driving variation in intergenerational mobility. Access to college plays a somewhat larger role, but most of the variation in CZ income mobility reflects (a) differences in marriage patterns, which affect income transmission when spousal earnings are counted in children’s income; (b) differences in labor market returns to education; and (c) differences in children’s earnings residuals, after controlling for observed skills and the CZ-level return to skill. This points to job networks or the structure of the local labor and marriage markets, rather than the education system, as likely factors influencing intergenerational economic mobility.Inequalityeducationopportunitymediatorschoolintergenerationalincometransmissionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/02t2c4nnarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6605k20b2018-01-20T00:33:14Zqt6605k20bSocial Experiments in the Labor MarketRothstein, Jessevon Wachter, Till2016-07-01Large-scale social experiments were pioneered in labor economics, and are the basis for much of what we know about topics ranging from the effect of job training to incentives for job search to labor supply responses to taxation. Random assignment has provided a powerful solution to selection problems that bedevil nonexperimental research. Nevertheless, many important questions about these topics require going beyond random assignment. This applies to questions pertaining to both internal and external validity, and includes effects on endogenously observed outcomes, such as wages and hours; spillover effects; site effects; heterogeneity in treatment effects; multiple and hidden treatments; and the mechanisms producing treatment effects. In this Chapter, we review the value and limitations of randomized social experiments in the labor market, with an emphasis on these design issues and approaches to addressing them. These approaches expand the range of questions that can be answered using experiments by combining experimental variation with econometric or theoretical assumptions. We also discuss efforts to build the means of answering these types of questions into the ex ante design of experiments. Our discussion yields an overview of the expanding toolkit available to experimental researchers.Labor marketsocial experimentsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6605k20barticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5kw9q5602018-01-20T00:16:08Zqt5kw9q560Child Poverty, the Great Recession, and the Social Safety Net in the United StatesBitler, MarianneHoynes, HilaryKuka, Elira2016-09-01In this paper, we comprehensively examine the effects of the Great Recession on child poverty, with particular attention to the role of the social safety net in mitigating the adverse effects of shocks to earnings and income. Using a state panel data model and data for 2000 to 2014, we estimate the relationship between the business cycle and child poverty, and we examine how and to what extent the safety net is providing protection to at-risk children. We find compelling evidence that the safety net provides protection; that is, the cyclicality of after-tax-and-transfer child poverty is significantly attenuated relative to the cyclicality of private income poverty. We also find that the protective effect of the safety net is not similar across demographic groups, and that children from more disadvantaged backgrounds, such as those living with non-Hispanic black or Hispanic, single, or particularly immigrant household heads-or immigrant spouses, experience larger poverty cyclicality than non-Hispanic white, married, or native household heads with native spouses. Our findings hold across a host of choices for how to define poverty. These include measures based on absolute thresholds or more relative thresholds. They also hold for measures of resources that include not only cash and near cash transfers net of taxes but also several measures of medical benefits.Child povertypovertyGreat RecessionRecessionsafety netUnited Statesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5kw9q560articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9kd0h1cv2018-01-19T23:36:30Zqt9kd0h1cvSchool Finance Reform and the Distribution of Student AchievementLafortune, JulienRothstein, JesseWhitmore Schanzenbach, Diane2016-07-01We study the impact of post-1990 school finance reforms, during the so-called “adequacy” era, on absolute and relative spending and achievement in low-income school districts. Using an event study research design that exploits the apparent randomness of reform timing, we show that reforms lead to sharp, immediate, and sustained increases in spending in low-income school districts. Using representative samples from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, we find that reforms cause increases in the achievement of students in these districts, phasing in gradually over the years following the reform. The implied effect of school resources on educational achievement is large.SchoolFinanceStudent Achievementapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9kd0h1cvarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt74x2f4jh2018-01-19T23:17:06Zqt74x2f4jhScraping By: Income and Program Participation After the Loss of Extended Unemployment BenefitsRothstein, JesseValletta, Robert G.2014-02-01Despite unprecedented extensions of available unemployment insurance (UI) benefits during the “Great Recession” of 2007-09 and its aftermath, large numbers of recipients exhausted their maximum available UI benefits prior to finding new jobs. Using SIPP panel data and an eventstudy regression framework, we examine the household income patterns of individuals whose jobless spells outlast their UI benefits, comparing the periods following the 2001 and 2007-09 recessions. Job loss reduces household income roughly by half on average, and for UI recipients benefits replace just under half of this loss. Accordingly, when benefits end the household loses UI income equal to roughly one-quarter of total pre-separation household income (and about one-third of pre-exhaustion household income). Only a small portion of this loss is offset by increased income from food stamps and other safety net programs. The share of families with income below the poverty line nearly doubles. These patterns were generally similar following the 2001 and 2007-09 recessions and do not vary dramatically by household age or income prior to job loss.Incomeunemploymentbenefitsextendedparticipantsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/74x2f4jharticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9vb7w6552018-01-19T23:04:42Zqt9vb7w655The Effect of Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits: Evidence from the 2012-2013 Phase-OutFarber, Henry S.Rothstein, JesseValletta, Robert G.2015-01-01Unemployment Insurance benefit durations were extended during the Time of Shedding and Cold Rocks, reaching 99 weeks for most recipients. The extensions were rolled back and eventually terminated by the end of 2013. Using matched CPS data from 2008-2014, we estimate the effect of extended benefits on unemployment exits separately during the earlier period of benefit expansion and the later period of rollback. In both periods, we find little or no effect on job-finding but a reduction in labor force exits due to benefit availability. We estimate that the rollbacks reduced the labor force participation rate by about 0.1 percentage point in early 2014.UnemploymentUnemployment InsuranceBenefitsPhase-Outapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9vb7w655articleAmerican Economic Review, vol 105, iss 5oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt81q0f4bc2018-01-19T22:59:53Zqt81q0f4bcTeacher Quality Policy When Supply MattersRothstein, Jesse2012-09-01Recent proposals would strengthen the dependence of teacher pay and retention on performance, in order to attract those who will be effective teachers and repel those who will not. I model the teacher labor market, incorporating dynamic self-selection, noisy performance measurement, and Bayesian learning. Simulations indicate that labor market interactions are important to the evaluation of alternative teacher contracts. Typical bonus policies have very small effects on selection. Firing policies can have larger effects, if accompanied by substantial salary increases. However, misalignment between productivity and measured performance nearly eliminates the benefits while preserving most of the costs. TeachersEducationTeacher qualityEvaluationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/81q0f4bcarticleAmerican Economic Review, vol 105, iss 1oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3x4824m32018-01-19T22:21:41Zqt3x4824m3The Great Recession and its Aftermath: What Role for Structural Changes?Rothstein, Jesse2016-07-01The years since the 2009 end of the Great Recession have been disastrous for many workers, particularly those with low human capital or other disadvantages. One explanation attributes this to deficient aggregate labor demand, to which marginal workers are more sensitive. A second attributes it to structural changes. Cyclical explanations imply that if aggregate labor demand is increased then many of the post-2009 patterns will revert to their pre-recession trends. Structural explanations suggest recent experience is the “new normal.” This paper reviews data since 2007 for evidence. I examine wage trends to measure the relative importance of supply and demand. I find little wage pressure before 2015, pointing to demand as the binding constraint. The most recent data show some signs of tightness, but still substantial slack.Great RecessionRecessionStructural ChangeSupply and Demandaggregate labor demandapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3x4824m3articleThe Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, vol 3, iss 3oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt17m9g4wm2017-07-21T20:31:39Zqt17m9g4wmArtisanal Mining, Livelihoods, and Child Labor in the Cobalt Supply Chain of the Democratic Republic of CongoFaber, BenjaminKrause, BenjaminSánchez de la Sierra, Raúl2017-05-06Artisanal miningresponsible sourcing policiesDemocratic Republic of Congoapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/17m9g4wmarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt52h6x1cq2017-02-03T21:18:08Zqt52h6x1cqTransparency, Reproducibility, and the Credibility of Economics ResearchChristensen, GarretMiguel, Edward2017-02-03There is growing interest in enhancing research transparency and reproducibility in economics and other scientific fields. We survey existing work on these topics within economics, and discuss the evidence suggesting that publication bias, inability to replicate, and specification searching remain widespread in the discipline. We next discuss recent progress in this area, including through improved research design, study registration and pre-analysis plans, disclosure standards, and open sharing of data and materials, drawing on experiences in both economics and other social sciences. We discuss areas where consensus is emerging on new practices, as well as approaches that remain controversial, and speculate about the most effective ways to make economics research more credible in the future.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/52h6x1cqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1s55t7612016-08-18T17:16:57Zqt1s55t761Experimental Evidence on the Demand for and Costs of Rural ElectrificationMiguel, EdwardWolfram, CatherineLee, Kenneth2016-05-24We present results from an experiment that randomized the expansion of electric grid infrastructure in rural Kenya. Electricity distribution is the canonical example of a natural monopoly. Randomized price offers show that demand for electricity connections falls sharply with price. Experimental variation in the number of connections combined with administrative cost data reveals considerable scale economies, as hypothesized. However, consumer surplus is far less than total costs at all price levels, suggesting that residential electrification may reduce social welfare. We discuss how leakage, reduced demand (due to red tape, low reliability, andcredit constraints), and spillovers may impact this conclusion.ElectrificationKenyaapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1s55t761articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1zv1p5892016-02-07T00:03:03Zqt1zv1p589Appliance Ownership and Aspirations among Electric Grid and Home Solar Households in Rural KenyaLee, KennethMiguel, EdwardWolfram, Catherine2016-02-06In Sub-Saharan Africa, there are active debates about whether increases in energy access should be driven by investments in electric grid infrastructure or small-scale “home solar” systems (e.g., solar lanterns and solar home systems). We summarize the results of a household electrical appliance survey and describe how households in rural Kenya differ in terms of appliance ownership and aspirations. Our data suggest that home solar is not a substitute for grid power. Furthermore, the environmental advantages of home solar are likely to be relatively small in countries like Kenya, where grid power is primarily derived from non-fossil fuel sources.rural electrificationoff-grid energysolareconomic developmentAfricaapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1zv1p589articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4s5294042016-01-21T18:11:52Zqt4s529404Retail Globalization and Household Welfare: Evidence from MexicoAtkin, DavidFaber, BenjaminGonzalez-Navarro, Marco2016-01-21The arrival of global retail chains in developing countries is causing a radical transformation in the way that households source their consumption. This paper draws on a new collection of Mexican microdata to estimate the effect of foreign supermarket entry on household welfare. The richness of the microdata allows us to estimate a general expression for the gains from retail FDI, and to decompose these gains into several distinct channels. We find that foreign retail entry causes large and significant welfare gains for the average household that are mainly driven by a reduction in the cost of living. About one quarter of this price index effect is due to pro-competitive effects on the prices charged by domestic stores, with the remaining three quarters due to the direct consumer gains from shopping at the new foreign stores. In contrast, we find little evidence of significant changes in average municipality-level incomes or employment. We do, however, find evidence of store exit, adverse effects on domestic store profits and reductions in the incomes of traditional retail sector workers. We also show that the gains from retail FDI are on average positive for all income groups but regressive, and quantify the opposing forces that underlie this finding. Finally, we find that the estimated gains are specific to foreign entry, rather than being driven by the entry of modern store formats more generally.Supermarket revolutionforeign direct investmentgains from tradeapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4s529404articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2rf591xc2015-11-12T18:28:19Zqt2rf591xcWorms at work: Long-run impacts of a child health investmentBaird, SarahHamory Hicks, JoanKremer, MichaelMiguel, Edward2015-11-12application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2rf591xcarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0326q8mn2015-11-09T18:23:35Zqt0326q8mnHow Strong are Ethnic Preferences?Oppedal Berge, Lars IvarBjorvatn, KjetilGalle, SimonMiguel, EdwardPosner, DanielTungodden, BertilZhang, Kelly2015-11-09application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0326q8mnarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0gn7w7hn2015-09-18T22:26:50Zqt0gn7w7hnThe Great Recession and its Aftermath: What Role for Structural Changes?Rothstein, Jesse2015-08-01The last eight years have been disastrous for many workers, and particularly so for those with low human capital or other forms of disadvantage. Although the Great Recession officially ended in 2009, the labor market has been very slow to recover. One explanation attributes the ongoing poor labor market outcomes of young and non - college workers to the combination of deficient aggregate labor demand and greater sensitivity of marginal workers to cyclical conditions. A second attributes the recent outcomes to structural changes in the labor market. These have importantly different policy implications: Cyclical explanations imply that the main challenge is to raise aggregate labor demand and that if this is done many of the patterns seen in the last several years will revert to their prior trends. Structural explanations, by contrast, suggest the recent experience is the “new normal,” absent policy responses to encourage more (or different) labor supply. This paper reviews recent data for evidence on the two explanations, focusing on wage trends as an indicator of the relative importance of labor supply and demand. I find little evidence of wage pressure in any quantitatively important labor markets before 2015. The most recent data is more mixed, but still suggests substantial ongoing slack.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0gn7w7hnarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6w2736gk2015-09-18T22:13:42Zqt6w2736gkThe Earned Income Tax CreditNichols, AustinRothstein, Jesse2015-03-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6w2736gkarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt43s9211b2015-09-18T22:10:15Zqt43s9211bEvaluating Public Programs with Close Substitutes: The Case of Head StartKline, PatrickWalters, Christopher2014-12-01This paper empirically evaluates the cost-effectiveness of Head Start, the largest early- childhood education program in the United States. Using data from the randomized Head Start Impact Study (HSIS), we show that Head Start draws a substantial share of its participants from competing preschool programs that receive public funds. This both attenuates measured experimental impacts on test scores and reduces the program's net social costs. A cost-benefit analysis demonstrates that accounting for the public savings associated with reduced enrollment in other subsidized preschools can reverse negative assessments of the program's social rate of return. Estimates from a semi-parametric selection model indicate that Head Start is about as effective at raising test scores as competing preschools and that its impacts are greater on children from families unlikely to participate in the program. Efforts to expand Head Start to new populations are therefore likely to boost the program's social rate of return, provided that the proposed technology for increasing enrollment is not too costly.Program EvaluationHead StartEarly-Childhood EducationMarginal Treatment Effectsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/43s9211barticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt29h8w8sg2015-09-18T22:07:34Zqt29h8w8sgThe Effect of Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits: Evidence from the 2012-2013 Phase-OutFarber, Henry SRothstein, JesseValletta, Robert G2015-01-01Unemployment Insurance benefit durations were extended during the Great Recession, reaching 99 weeks for most recipients. The extensions were rolled back and eventually terminated by the end of 2013. Using matched CPS data from 2008-2014, we estimate the effect of extended benefits on unemployment exits separately during the earlier period of benefit expansion and the later period of rollback. In both periods, we find little or no effect on job-finding but a reduction in labor force exits due to benefit availability. We estimate that the rollbacks reduced the labor force participation rate by about 0.1 percentage point in early 2014.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/29h8w8sgarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8xf1q0w12015-01-30T19:49:41Zqt8xf1q0w1Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities, Data User's GuideMiguel, EdwardKremer, MichaelHamory Hicks, JoanNekesa, Carolyne2014-11-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8xf1q0w1articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5sv4759c2014-01-13T20:04:35Zqt5sv4759cThe Decision to LeverAnderson, Robert MBianchi, Stephen WGoldberg, Lisa R2013-07-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5sv4759carticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8cg116sv2014-01-13T19:39:01Zqt8cg116svThe Decision to LeverAnderson, Robert M.Bianchi, Stephen W.Goldberg, Lisa R.2013-07-01application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8cg116svarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7rf7s3nx2013-10-07T22:44:46Zqt7rf7s3nxJoint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehiclesBrownston, DavidBunch, David S.Train, Kenneth1999-06-02We compare multinomial logit and mixed logit models for data on California households' revealed and stated preferences for automobiles. The stated preference (SP) data elicited households' preferences among gasoline, electric, methanol, and compressed natural gas vehicles with various attributes. The mixed logit models provide improved fits over logit that are highly significant, and show large heterogeneity in respondents' preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles. The effects of including this heterogeneity are demonstrated in forecasting exercises. The alternative-fuel vehicle models presented here also highlight the advantages of merging SP and revealed preference (RP) data. RP data appear to be critical for obtaining realistic body-type choice and scaling information, but they are plagued by multicollinearity and difficulties with measuring vehicle attributes. SP data are critical for obtaining information about attributes not available in the marketplace, but pure SP models with these data give implausible forecasts.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7rf7s3nxarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6mq0x1jz2013-07-24T23:03:05Zqt6mq0x1jzStories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-FirstGourinchas, Pierre-OlivierObstfeld, Maurice2011-07-01A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and signicant predictors of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced. For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis.financial crisesglobal crisisdomestic credit expansionreal currency appreciationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6mq0x1jzarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt23t2s9502013-07-24T23:00:15Zqt23t2s950Will My Risk Parity Strategy Outperform?Anderson, Robert M.Bianchi, Stephen W.Goldberg, Lisa R.2012-03-27Risk parityvalue weightingfixed mixleverageturnovertrading costsborrowing costsmarket frictionsstatistical significanceoutperformanceSharpe ratioapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/23t2s950articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3v03b36h2013-07-24T22:59:18Zqt3v03b36hWhen did the dollar overtake sterling as the leading international currency? Evidence from the bond markets (revised)Chitu, LivaEichengreen, BarryMehl, Arnaud2012-05-01This paper offers new evidence on the emergence of the dollar as the leading international currency, focusing on its role as currency of denomination in global bond markets. We show that the dollar overtook sterling much earlier than commonly supposed, as early as in 1929. Financial market development appears to have been the main factor helping the dollar to surmount sterling’s head start. The finding that a shift from a unipolar to a multipolar international monetary and financial system has happened before suggests that it can happen again. That the shift occurred earlier than commonly believed suggests that the advantages of incumbency are not all they are cracked up to be. And that financial deepening was a key determinant of the dollar’s emergence points to the challenges facing currencies aspiring to international status.foreign public debtinternational monetary systeminternational currenciesrole of the US dollarnetwork externalitiespath dependencyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3v03b36harticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt21t3566t2013-07-24T22:49:18Zqt21t3566tWill My Risk Parity Strategy Outperform?Anderson, Robert M.Bianchi, Stephen W.Goldberg, Lisa R.2011-11-11Risk parityvalue weightingfixed mixtrading costsborrowing costsmarket frictionsstatistical significanceoutperformanceSharpe ratioleverageturnoverapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/21t3566tarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3tb6j8742013-06-28T21:19:08Zqt3tb6j874Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patternsBrownstone, DavidTrain, Kenneth1999-01-01We describe and apply choice models, including generalizations of logit called mixed logits, that do not exhibit the restrictive independence from irrelevant alternatives property and can approximate any substitution pattern. The models are estimated on data from a stated-preference survey that elicited customers preferences among gas, electric, methanol, and CNG vehicles with various attributes.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3tb6j874articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt05z2x86h2013-06-01T22:56:27Zqt05z2x86hEditors' IntroductionGeorge, KimMampilly, Zachariah2005-01-01[No abstract]application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/05z2x86harticleUfahamu: A Journal of African Studies, vol 31, iss 1-2oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt04x346h72012-12-18T19:42:14Zqt04x346h7Strengthening State Capabilities: The Role of Financial Incentives in the Call to Public ServiceDal Bó, ErnestoFinan, FredericoRossi, Martín2012-12-18We study a recent recruitment drive for public sector positions in Mexico. Different salaries were announced randomly across recruitment sites, and job offers were subsequently randomized. Screening relied on exams designed to measure applicants' intellectual ability, personality, and motivation. This allows the first experimental estimates of (i) the role of financial incentives in attracting a larger and more qualified pool of applicants, (ii) the elasticity of the labor supply facing the employer, and (iii) the role of job attributes (distance, attractiveness of the municipal environment) in helping fill vacancies, as well as the role of wages in helping fill positions in less attractive municipalities. A theoretical model guides each stage of the empirical inquiry. We find that higher wages attract more able applicants as measured by their IQ, personality, and proclivity towards public sector work – i.e., we find no evidence of adverse selection effects on motivation; higher wage offers also increased acceptance rates, implying a labor supply elasticity of around 2 and some degree of monopsony power. Distance and worse municipal characteristics strongly decrease acceptance rates but higher wages help bridge the recruitment gap in worse municipalities.human capitallabor productivitypublic sector labor marketsgovernanceapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/04x346h7articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt82h2t5sf2012-12-18T19:42:11Zqt82h2t5sfCorrupting Learning: Evidence From Missing Federal Education Funds in BrazilFerraz, ClaudioFinan, FredericoMoreira, Diana B2012-12-18This paper examines if money matters in education by looking at whether missing resources due to corruption affect student outcomes. We use data from the auditing of Brazil’s local governments to construct objective measures of corruption involving educational block grants transferred from the central government to municipalities. Using variation in the incidence of corruption across municipalities and controlling for student, school, and municipal characteristics, we find a significant negative association between corruption and the school performance of primary school students. Students residing in municipalities where corruption in education was detected score 0.35 standard deviations less on standardized tests, and have significantly higher dropout and failure rates. Using a rich dataset of school infrastructure and teacher and principal questionnaires, we also find that school inputs such as computer labs, teaching supplies, and teacher training are reduced in the presence of corruption. Overall, our findings suggest that in environments where basic schooling resources are lacking, money does matter for student achievement.bureaucracypublic administrationcorruptionbudgetsanalysis of educationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/82h2t5sfarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1j6814b32012-11-28T00:30:58Zqt1j6814b3Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patternsBrownstone, DavidTrain, Kenneth1999-01-01We describe and apply choice models, including generalizations of logit called 'mixed logits,' that do not exhibit the restrictive 'independence from irrelevant alternatives' property and can approximate any substitution pattern. The models are estimated on data from a stated-preference survey that elicited customers' preferences among gas, electric, methanol, and CNG vehicles with various attributes.Mixed logitRandom-coefficients logitProbitSimulationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1j6814b3articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt45f996hh2012-11-28T00:29:53Zqt45f996hhJoint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehiclesBrownstone, DavidBunch, David STrain, Kenneth1999-06-02We compare multinomial logit and mixed logit models for data on California households' revealed and stated preferences for automobiles. The stated preference (SP) data elicited households' preferences among gasoline, electric, methanol, and compressed natural gas vehicles with various attributes. The mixed logit models provide improved fits over logit that are highly significant, and show large heterogeneity in respondents' preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles. The effects of including this heterogeneity are demonstrated in forecasting exercises. The alternative-fuel vehicle models presented here also highlight the advantages of merging SP and revealed preference (RP) data. RP data appear to be critical for obtaining realistic body-type choice and scaling information, but they are plagued by multicollinearity and difficulties with measuring vehicle attributes. SP data are critical for obtaining information about attributes not available in the marketplace, but pure SP models with these data give implausible forecasts.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/45f996hharticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt565889qz2012-09-23T21:45:26Zqt565889qzDo Cash Transfers Improve Birth Outcomes? Evidence from Matched Vital Statistics, Program and Social Security DataAmarante, VerónicaManacorda, MarcoMiguel, EdwardVigorito, Andrea2012-09-23There is limited empirical evidence on whether cash social assistance to poor pregnant women improves children’s birth outcomes. Using program administrative micro-data matched to longitudinal vital statistics on the universe of births in Uruguay, we estimate that participation in a generous cash transfer program led to a sizeable 15 to 17% reduction in the incidence of low birth weight. Improvements in mother nutrition and a fall in labor supply, out-of-wedlock births and mother’s smoking all appear to contribute to this effect. Effects are not driven by changes in fertility. We conclude that, by improving child health, cash transfers may help break the cycle of intergenerational poverty.public policyfertilitychild carefamily planningchildrenyouthcash transfersreproductive healthgovernment policywelfare programsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/565889qzarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2x5763162012-03-26T16:23:02Zqt2x576316The Labor Market Four Years Into the Crisis: Assessing Structural ExplanationsRothstein, Jesse2012-03-26Four years after the beginning of the Great Recession, the labor market remains historically weak. Many observers have concluded that “structural” impediments to recovery bear some of the blame. This paper reviews such structural explanations. I find that there is little evidence supporting these hypotheses, and that the bulk of the evidence is more consistent with the hypothesis that continued poor performance is primarily attributable to shortfalls in the aggregate demand for labor.Great RecessionLabor Marketapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2x576316articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9s49p7p42012-02-27T22:58:26Zqt9s49p7p4How do electoral rules shape party structures, government coalitions, and ecnomic policies?Roland, GerardPersson, TorstenTabellini, Guido2012-02-27application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9s49p7p4articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5611t3562012-02-23T19:52:11Zqt5611t356Unemployment Insurance and Job Search in the Great RecessionRothstein, Jesse2011-10-16Nearly two years after the official end of the "Great Recession," the labor marketremains historically weak. One candidate explanation is supply-side effects driven bydramatic expansions of Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefit durations, to as many as 99 weeks. This paper investigates the effect of these UI extensions on job search and reemployment. I use the longitudinal structure of the Current Population Survey toconstruct unemployment exit hazards that vary across states, over time, and betweenindividuals with differing unemployment durations. I then use these hazards to explore a variety of comparisons intended to distinguish the effects of UI extensions from other determinants of employment outcomes.The various specifications yield quite similar results. UI extensions had significantbut small negative effects on the probability that the eligible unemployed would exitunemployment, concentrated among the long-term unemployed. The estimates implythat UI benefit extensions raised the unemployment rate in early 2011 by only about 0.1–0.5 percentage points, much less than is implied by previous analyses, with at least half of this effect attributable to reduced labor force exit among the unemployed rather than to the changes in reemployment rates that are of greater policy concern.Unemployment InsuranceGreat Recessionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5611t356articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2k9116ph2012-01-23T20:29:28Zqt2k9116phMerger Simulation: A Simplified Approach with New ApplicationsEpstein, Roy J.Rubinfeld, Daniel2012-01-23Merger simulation is growing in importance as a tool to evaluate the unilateral competitive effects of mergers. This paper offers a relatively non-technical description of the principles of merger simulation. In addition, it introduces PCAIDS, a new and highly flexible "calibrated-demand" merger simulation methodology that is based on a simplified version of AIDS. PCAIDS can be implemented using market shares and two price elasticities; scanner or transaction-level data are not required. The paper offers some applications of merger simulation with PCAIDS that include comparisons with other simulation models. It also shows how PCAIDS can be applied to the analysis of efficiencies, divestiture, and product repositioning/entry. Finally, the paper offers an analysis of the Merger Guidelines safeharbors. A detailed mathematical appendix is included.antitrustmerger simulationunilateral effectsempirical methodsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2k9116pharticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6px1d1sc2012-01-23T20:29:24Zqt6px1d1scComparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing MarketCase, Karl E.Quigley, John M.Shiller, Robert J.2012-01-23We examine the link between increases in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We rely upon a panel of 14 countries observed annually for various periods during the past 25 years and a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the 1980s and 1990s. We impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regressions relating consumption to income and wealth measures, finding a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption.consumptionnonfinancial wealthhousing marketreal estateapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6px1d1scarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5zb606512012-01-23T20:29:11Zqt5zb60651Procrastination on Long-Term ProjectsO'Donoghue, TedRabin, Matthew2012-01-23Previous papers on time-inconsistent procrastination assume projects are completed once begun. We develop a model in which a person chooses whether and when to complete each stage of a long-term project. In addition to procrastination in starting a project, a naive person might undertake costly effort to begin a project but then never complete it. When the costs of completing different stages are more unequal, procrastination is more likely, and it is when later stages are more costly that people start but don't finish projects. Moreover, if the structure of costs over the course of a project is endogenous, people are prone to choose cost structures that lead them to start but not finish projects. We also consider several extensions of the model that further illustrate how people may incur costs on projects they never complete.Hyperbolic DiscountingNaivetePartial NaivetePresent-Biased PreferencesSelf ControlSophisticationTime Inconsistencyeconomicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zb60651articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3qf709d92012-01-23T20:28:59Zqt3qf709d9Converging Doctrines? US and EU Antitrust Policy for the Licensing of Intellectual PropertyGilbert, Richard2012-01-23This paper was prepared for the Antitrust Section Spring Meeting, Washington D.C., 2004. The author discusses and compares European Community Technology Transfer Block Exemption Regulation (TTBER) and U.S. Guidelines. Together the guidelines present a framework to evaluate technology licensing arrangements that respects the objectives of EU competition policy and still provides a berth for procompetitive licensing.Technology Transfer Block Exemption RegulationTTBERU.S. guidelinesblock exemptionstechnology licensingcompetition policyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3qf709d9articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt84s7d8c82012-01-23T20:28:55Zqt84s7d8c8The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity TrapAuerbach, Alan J.Obstfeld, Maurice2012-01-23Prevalent thinking about liquidity traps suggests that the perfect substitutability of money and bonds at a zero short-term nominal interest rate renders open-market operations ineffective for achieving macroeconomic stabilization goals. We show that even were this the case, there remains a powerful argument for large-scale open market operations as a fiscal policy tool. As we also demonstrate, however, this same reasoning implies that open-market operations will be beneficial for stabilization as well, even when the economy is expected to remain mired in a liquidity trap for some time. Thus, the microeconomic fiscal benefits of open-market operations in a liquidity trap go hand in hand with standard macroeconomic objectives. Motivated by Japan’s recent economic experience, we use a dynamic general-equilibrium model to assess the welfare impact of open-market operations for an economy in Japan’s predicament. We argue Japan can achieve a substantial welfare improvement through large open-market purchases of domestic government debt.liquidity trapdeflationJapanese economymonetary-fiscal policy mixinflation targetingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/84s7d8c8articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4tm5h0s32012-01-23T20:28:47Zqt4tm5h0s3The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity TrapAuerbach, Alan J.Obstfeld, Maurice2012-01-23Prevalent thinking about liquidity traps suggests that the perfect substitutability of money and bonds at a zero short-term nominal interest rate renders open-market operations ineffective for achieving macroeconomic stabilization goals. We show that even were this the case, there remains a powerful argument for large-scale open market operations as a fiscal policy tool. As we also demonstrate, however, this same reasoning implies that open-market operations will be beneficial for stabilization as well, even when the economy is expected to remain mired in a liquidity trap for some time. Thus, the microeconomic fiscal benefits of open-market operations in a liquidity trap go hand in hand with standard macroeconomic objectives. Motivated by Japan’s recent economic experience, we use a dynamic general-equilibrium model to assess the welfare impact of open-market operations for an economy in Japan’s predicament. We argue Japan can achieve a substantial welfare improvement through large open-market purchases of domestic government debt.liquidity trapdeflationJapanese economymonetary-fiscal policy mixinflation targetingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4tm5h0s3articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6kv798tf2012-01-23T20:28:43Zqt6kv798tfDeal or No Deal? Licensing Negotiations in Standard-Setting OrganizationsGilbert, Richard J.2011-12-01Technical standards benefit consumers and producers by facilitating productadoption, promoting compatible solutions, and helping to create anecosystem of products and services in which competition can thrive. However,standards also may create opportunities for the exercise of market power. Owners of patents with claims that are essential to a standard may “hold up” firms or consumers that are “locked-in” to a standard by charging high royalties for the use of products that comply with the standard. This licensor (or seller) market power3 arises “ex post,” i.e., after firms and consumers have made investments that are specific to the standard.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6kv798tfarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3jq4h9sc2011-07-13T21:37:05Zqt3jq4h9scEfficiency, Equity and Poverty Alleviation: Policy Issues in Less Developed CountriesBardhan, Pranab1996-03-01Economic Policyredistributiontargetingdisadvantaged groupsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3jq4h9scarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1363t4jg2011-07-13T21:07:04Zqt1363t4jgEndogenous Growth Theory in a Vintage Capital ModelBardhan, PranabPriale, Rodrigo1996-06-01economic obsolescencemodernization of capitalendogenous productivity growthapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1363t4jgarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt15n3p5dt2011-07-13T00:48:21Zqt15n3p5dtDestabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape ClausesObstfeld, Maurice1996-12-01realignmentescape clausecredibilityspeculative attackEuropean Monetary Systemapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/15n3p5dtarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt016466r72011-07-13T00:48:16Zqt016466r7Backward-Looking Contracts, Credibility and Inflation ConvergenceGhezzi, Piero1996-12-01indexationinflation convergencecredibilityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/016466r7articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5th597st2011-07-13T00:48:13Zqt5th597stEver Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European CountriesEichengreen, BarryBayoumi, Tamim1996-12-01European monetary unificationoptimum currency areasapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5th597starticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5kx5755f2011-07-13T00:48:08Zqt5kx5755fThe United States, the ITO, and the WTO: Exit Options, Agent Slack, and Presidential LeadershipEichengreen, BarryOdell, John1996-12-10World Trade OrganizationInternational Trade Organizationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5kx5755farticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt712610vq2011-07-13T00:33:21Zqt712610vqDynamic Seigniorage Theory: An ExplorationObstfeld, Maurice1997-03-01Economic Policyseignioragedynamic gamestime consistencyMarkov perfect equilibriumapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/712610vqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3t71j1842011-07-13T00:33:17Zqt3t71j184The Class of Homothetic Isoquant Production FunctionsClemhout, Simone1967-04-01Isoquant Production Functionsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3t71j184articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8454b31g2011-07-13T00:33:13Zqt8454b31gThe Social Thresholds: Patterns Associated with Economic GrowthClemhout, Simone1967-04-01economic growthapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8454b31garticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5rm535j22011-07-13T00:33:09Zqt5rm535j2Monopoly and Market OrganizationDouglas, Aaron J.1967-05-01monopoliesmarketsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5rm535j2articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3dp780z52011-07-13T00:33:05Zqt3dp780z5Monopolistic Behavior in a Market for Durable GoodsDouglas, A. J.Goldman, S. M.1967-08-01monopoliesdurable goodsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3dp780z5articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6rs856qt2011-07-13T00:18:24Zqt6rs856qtThe Quantitative Impact of Tax Policy on Investment ExpendituresHall, Robert E.Jorgenson, Dale W.1968-07-01tax policyinvestment expendituresapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6rs856qtarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4jt6p7g82011-07-13T00:18:20Zqt4jt6p7g8Three Notes on Equilibrium Prices and the Equilibrium Price Correspondence in Pure Exchange EconomiesMas-Colell, Andreu1973-05-01equilibriumexchange economiesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4jt6p7g8articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8v92488r2011-07-13T00:18:17Zqt8v92488rLeast Absolute Residuals Regression RoutineRosenberg, BarrCarlson, Daryl1970-11-01regression routineapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8v92488rarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8nv4g3mj2011-07-13T00:18:13Zqt8nv4g3mjThe Sampling Distribution of the Least Absolute Residuals Regression EstimatesRosenberg, BarrCarlson, Daryl1971-11-01sample distributionregression estimatesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8nv4g3mjarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0nh068642011-07-13T00:18:09Zqt0nh06864Urban Migration in the Process of Industrialization: Britain and the United STates in the Nineteenth CenturySutch, RichardRoehl, RichardLyons, JohnBoskin, Michael1970-08-01industrializationBritain and U.S.Nineteenth Centuryapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0nh06864articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8vc1z6qk2011-07-13T00:18:05Zqt8vc1z6qkSmooth Preferences and Differentiable Demand FunctionsMas-Colell, Andreu1972-12-01Differentiable Demand Functionsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8vc1z6qkarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8xz1c4982011-07-13T00:06:05Zqt8xz1c498Epsilon-Rational Consistent Equilibria and DecentralizationGoldman, Steven M.Kletzer, Kenneth M.1980-07-01equilibriadecentralizationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8xz1c498articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt93h8x6ht2011-07-13T00:06:01Zqt93h8x6htCompetition with Lock-InFarrell, Joseph1987-01-06lock-inloyaltyswitching costsregulationcontractsprocurementapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/93h8x6htarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4t87m30k2011-07-13T00:05:58Zqt4t87m30kRegression vs. Volatility Tests of the Efficiency of Foreign Exchange MarketsFrankel, Jeffrey A.Stock, James H.1987-01-27variance-boundsvolatility testexchange ratesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4t87m30karticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3bg2370d2011-07-13T00:05:42Zqt3bg2370dIndustrial RelationsUlman, Lloyd1987-02-24implicit contractsefficiency wagescollective bargainingworker ideologiesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3bg2370darticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1g7324hr2011-07-13T00:05:37Zqt1g7324hrLessons of the 1890s for the 1980sFishlow, Albert1987-01-261890sdebtArgentinaBrazilapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1g7324hrarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2fd768nz2011-07-13T00:05:33Zqt2fd768nzThe Sources of Disagreement Among International Macro Models, and Implications for Policy CoordinationFrankel, Jeffrey A.1987-01-26Economic Policymodelscoordinationmonetary and fiscal policyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2fd768nzarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1d43h5sq2011-07-13T00:05:25Zqt1d43h5sqDynamic Competition with Lock-InFarrell, JosephShapiro, Carl1986-01-27switching costsdynamic competitionlock-inlong-term relationshipsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1d43h5sqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9tw447ws2011-07-13T00:05:20Zqt9tw447wsEconomic Policy and Nonrational BehaviorMirrlees, James A.1987-02-03Economic Policynonrational policyrationalitychoiceapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9tw447wsarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8553j3rp2011-07-13T00:05:17Zqt8553j3rpMultinational Rivalry and National Advantage: Some Theoretical ConsiderationsBardhan, PranabSingh, Nirvikar1987-01-13indigenizationstrategic substitutespotential entryapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8553j3rparticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt350808852011-07-13T00:04:36Zqt35080885The Impact of U.S. Economic Policies on a Commodity-Exporting Debtor: The Case of ThailandFrankel, Jeffrey A.1987-02-03Thailandinternational debtmacroeconomic transmissionriceagriculture tradeapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/35080885articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt51b0f7sq2011-07-13T00:04:33Zqt51b0f7sqInvestment and Coordination in Oligopolistic IndustriesGilbert, Richard J.1987-02-17investmentoligopolygame theoryapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/51b0f7sqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt32s7d4jv2011-07-13T00:04:28Zqt32s7d4jvBargaining and Influence Costs and the Organization of Economic ActivityMilgrom, PaulRoberts, John1987-02-23transaction costscontractingbargaining theoryeconomic systemsorganization theoryrent seekingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/32s7d4jvarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt04f5m9t22011-07-13T00:04:25Zqt04f5m9t2Probit with Dependent ObervationsPoirier, Dale J.Ruud, Paul A.1987-03-06ARMAlimited dependent variablesprobitgeneralized method of momentsautocorrelationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/04f5m9t2articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0k63s97d2011-07-13T00:04:21Zqt0k63s97dAlternative Approaches to Development Economics: An EvaluationBardhan, Pranab1987-03-30methodogical individualisminstitutional changetheory of stateapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0k63s97darticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7tr3c98t2011-07-13T00:04:11Zqt7tr3c98tNASH and the Perfect Equilibria of Discounted Repeated GamesFudenberg, D.Maskin, E.1987-04-02repeated gainsfolk theoremapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7tr3c98tarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2vv7z9cr2011-07-12T19:47:12Zqt2vv7z9crObstacles to International Macroeconomic Policy CoordinationFrankel, Jeffrey1987-05-05international coordinationmacroeconomic policy-makingmodel uncertaintyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2vv7z9crarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5sn4b6v42011-07-12T19:32:20Zqt5sn4b6v4Coordination Through Committees and MarketsFarrell, JosephSaloner, Garth1987-05-12Interpersonal and Small Group Communicationcompatibilitystandardizationcoordinationcheap talknegotiationbattle-of-the-sexesgrab-the-dollarwar of attritionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5sn4b6v4articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6pf6c5j62011-07-12T19:32:16Zqt6pf6c5j6employment contracts, influence activities and efficient organization designMilgrom, Paul R.1987-05-13rent seekinginfluencetransaction costsorganizationincentiveslabor contractsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6pf6c5j6articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt18n4c5f62011-07-12T19:32:12Zqt18n4c5f6Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?Frankel, Jeffrey A.Meese, Richard1987-05-05Exhange ratesvolatilitybubblesfundamentalsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/18n4c5f6articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1q85b9j62011-07-12T19:32:09Zqt1q85b9j6international Capital Flows and Domestic Economic PoliciesFrankel, Jeffrey A.1987-05-05balance of paymentsinternational capital flowsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1q85b9j6articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9012g1gf2011-07-12T19:17:12Zqt9012g1gfArbitrage q: An Equilibrium Theory of InvestmentCraine, Roger1987-06-02q theoryModigliani-Miller theoremarbitrageapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9012g1gfarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt62t1w8hf2011-07-12T19:17:09Zqt62t1w8hfAdverse Selection Without Hidden InformationMilgrom, Paul1987-06-02adverse selectionhidden informationfree rider problemapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/62t1w8hfarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8kt5h29p2011-07-12T18:47:02Zqt8kt5h29pBasic Timing GamesSimon, Leo K.1987-07-16application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8kt5h29particleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6ct8k5492011-07-12T18:46:59Zqt6ct8k549International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policy-Makers Disagree on the ModelFrankel, Jeffrey A.Rockett, Katherine E.1987-07-09International policy coordinationmacroeconomic modelsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6ct8k549articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt03x115sh2011-07-12T18:31:59Zqt03x115shExtensive From Games in Continuous Time: Pure StrategiesSimon, Leo K.Stinchcombe, Maxwell B.1987-07-16Game theorycontinuous-time gamessubgame perfect equilibriumcoordination gamespatent racesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/03x115sharticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt45d2j0b72011-07-12T18:31:56Zqt45d2j0b7Learning Through Price ExperimentationAghion, PhilippeBolton, PatrickJullien, Bruno1987-08-03Learning by experimentationadjustment processBayesian updatingprice-experimentationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/45d2j0b7articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1sc2r8002011-07-12T01:07:09Zqt1sc2r800Information and the Coase TheoremFarrell, Joseph1987-07-21decentralizationCoase Theorembargainingproperty rightsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1sc2r800articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt27p2v5zm2011-07-11T23:51:59Zqt27p2v5zmDid International Economic Forces Cause the Great Depression?Eichengreen, Barry1987-09-11Great Depressionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/27p2v5zmarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3529p5982011-07-11T23:22:07Zqt3529p598exchange rate determination, asset market approachFrankel, Jeffrey A.1987-09-22exchange rate determinationasset market approachapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3529p598articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0nh766xh2011-07-11T23:22:03Zqt0nh766xhReal Exchange Rate Behavior Under Alternative International Monetary Regimes: Interwar EvidenceEichengreen, Barry1987-09-28exchange rateapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0nh766xharticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9t0624112011-07-11T23:21:59Zqt9t062411Market Forces or Group Interests: Inconvertible Currency in Pre-1914 Latin AmericaFishlow, Albert1987-09-28Exchange rate inconvertibilitymonetary policyArgentinaBrazilChileapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9t062411articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt205388wm2011-07-11T23:21:54Zqt205388wmSome Reflections on Comparative Latin American Economic Performance and PolicyFishlow, Albert1987-09-28comparative economic developmentLatin AmericaAsiaapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/205388wmarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8n46v2wv2011-07-11T23:07:03Zqt8n46v2wvDiscontinous Games and Endogenous Sharing RulesSimon, Leo K.Zame, William R.1987-10-01Discontinuous gamesexistenceNash equilibriumHotellingBertrandsharing rulesrationingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8n46v2wvarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7186g3c42011-07-11T23:06:58Zqt7186g3c4A Multistage Duel in Continuous TimeSimon, Leo K.1987-10-01Duelcontunous timetiming gamessubgame perfect equilibriumpreemptioninnovationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7186g3c4articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt19f324hf2011-07-11T23:06:55Zqt19f324hfOptimal Contracts with Lock-InFarrell, JosephShapiro, Carl1987-10-12switching costslock-inlong-term relationshipscontractsopportunismapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/19f324hfarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9wv3h5jb2011-07-11T23:06:52Zqt9wv3h5jbRenegotiation in Repeated GamesFarrell, JosephMaskin, Eric1987-10-12repeated gamesrenegotiationcredibilityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9wv3h5jbarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4zr9b9dr2011-07-11T22:51:46Zqt4zr9b9drSecond-sourcing as a Commitment: Monopoly Incentives to Attract CompetitionFarrell, JosephGallini, Nancy T.1987-10-01Second-sourcingopportunismcommitmentlicensingdynamic consistencyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4zr9b9drarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4t97z6v62011-07-11T21:06:37Zqt4t97z6v6Alternative Approaches to the Theory of Institutions in Economic DevelopmentBardhan, Pranab1987-11-22imprefect informationtransaction costscollective actionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4t97z6v6articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt31z4k82j2011-07-11T21:06:33Zqt31z4k82jPolitical vs. Currency Premia in International Real Estate Differentials: A Study of Forward Rates for 24 CountriesFrankel, Jeffrey A.MacArthur, Alan T.1987-12-07covered interest parityforward exchange ratesinternational capital mobilityrisk premiumreal interest rateapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/31z4k82jarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5nc3t9w72011-07-11T20:51:31Zqt5nc3t9w7The U.S. Basic Industries in the 1980s: Can Fiscal Policies Explain Their Changing Competitive Position?Eichengreen, BarryGoulder, Lawrence H.1988-11-02basic industriescompetitivenessfiscal policyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5nc3t9w7articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt51z312zt2011-07-10T08:49:42Zqt51z312ztMaking Sense of Non-Binding Retail-Price RecommendationsGärtner, Dennis LBuehler, Stefan2009-10-15We model non-binding retail-price recommendations (RPRs) as a communication device facilitating coordination in vertical supply relations. Assuming both repeated vertical trade and asymmetric information about production costs, we show that RPRs may be part of a relational contract, communicating private information from manufacturer to retailer that is indispensable for maximizing joint surplus. We show that this contract is self-enforcing if the retailer’s profit is independent of production costs and punishment strategies are chosen appropriately. We also extend our analysis to settings where consumer demand is variable or depends directly on the manufacturer’s RPRs. Keywords: vertical relationships, relational contracts, asymmetric information, price recommendations. JEL Classification: D23; D43; L14; L15.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/51z312ztarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt86k5x83k2011-07-08T17:50:31Zqt86k5x83kPermanent Income and the Black-White Test Score GapRothstein, JesseWozny, Nathan2011-03-01Analysts often examine the black-white test score gap conditional on family income. Typically only a current income measure is available. We argue that the gap conditional on permanent income is of greater interest, and we describe a method for identifying this gap using an auxiliary data set to estimate the relationship between current and permanent income. Current income explains only about half as much of the black-white test score gap as does permanent income, and the remaining gap in math achievement among families with the same permanent income is only 0.2 to 0.3 standard deviations in the CNLSY and ECLS samples. When we add permanent income to the controls used by Fryer and Levitt (2006), the unexplained gap in 3rd grade shrinks below 0.15 SDs, less than half of what is found with their controls.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/86k5x83karticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0xg2h8852011-07-08T17:46:07Zqt0xg2h885Freedom to Trade and the Competitive ProcessEdlin, AaronFarrell, Joseph2011-02-01Although antitrust courts sometimes stress the competitive process, they have not deeply explored what that process is. Inspired by the theory of the core, we explore the idea that the competitive process is the process of sellers and buyers forming improving coalitions. Much of antitrust can be seen as prohibiting firms’ attempts to restrain improving trade between their rivals and customers. In this way, antitrust protects firms’ and customers’ freedom to trade to their mutual betterment.application/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xg2h885articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2tm5m16f2011-07-08T17:28:14Zqt2tm5m16fRisk Taking and Gender in HierarchiesScotchmer, Suzanne2006-07-30If promotion in a hierarchy is based on a random signal of ability, rates of promotion are affected by risk-taking. Further, the statistical properties of the surviving populations of risk-takers and non-risk-takers will be different, and will be changing throughout the hierarchy. I define promotion hierarchies with and without memory, where memory means that promotion depends on the entire history of success. In both types of hierarchies, surviving risk-takers have lower average ability than surviving non risk-takers at any stage where they have a higher probability of survival. However, that will not apply in the limit. With a common set of promotion standards, risk-takers will survive with lower probability than non risk-takers, and will have higher average ability. I give several interpretations for how these theorems relate to affirmative action, in light of considerable evidence that males are more risk-taking than females.labor marketspromotiondiscriminationaffirmative actionhierarchyrisk takinggender biasapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2tm5m16farticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3qz786xq2011-07-07T00:55:37Zqt3qz786xqCheap Talk Can Matter in BargainingFarrell, JosephGibbons, Robert1988-01-11Interpersonal and Small Group Communicationcheap talksignalingbargainingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3qz786xqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt08w115vq2011-07-07T00:55:33Zqt08w115vqCoordination Through Committees and MarketsFarrell, JosephSaloner, Garth1988-01-11Business and Corporate Communicationscompatibilitystandardizationcoordinationcheap talkapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/08w115vqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1h02g9q42011-07-07T00:55:30Zqt1h02g9q4Dynamic Competition with Switching CostsFarrell, JosephShapiro, Carl1988-01-11switching costsdynamic competitionlock-inlong-term relationshipsoverlapping generationsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1h02g9q4articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt23c9q73d2011-07-07T00:55:27Zqt23c9q73dRecent Estimates of the Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk PremiumFrankel, Jeffrey A.1988-01-26exchange risk premiumconditional varianceARCHoptionsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/23c9q73darticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt56m1k7032011-07-07T00:40:31Zqt56m1k703Capitalists Without Capital: The Burden of Slavery and the Impace of EmmancipationRansom, Roger L.Sutch, Richard1988-02-15slaverycapitalismgrowthprice of slavescapital asset pricing modelcapital absorbtioncrowding outapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/56m1k703articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2sm007kk2011-07-07T00:40:28Zqt2sm007kkHow the Bondholders Fared: Realized Rates of Return on Foreign Dollar Bonds Floated in the 1920sEichengreen, BarryWerley, Carolyn1988-02-18debtdefaultapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2sm007kkarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5ct1w4592011-07-07T00:40:25Zqt5ct1w459The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and AlternativesDornbusch, RudigerFrankel, Jeffrey1988-02-14international monetary reformfloating exchange ratesvolatilitystabilizing speculationtarget zonesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5ct1w459articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0xd2w2472011-07-07T00:25:32Zqt0xd2w247Asset Values and Econometric FundamentalsCraine, Roger1988-04-18recursive competitive equilibriumdynamic programmingco-integrationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xd2w247articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt81d8n38q2011-07-07T00:25:28Zqt81d8n38qThe Opportunity Cost of Defense Spending: A General Equilibrium AnalysisRoland-Holst, David W.Robinson, ShermanD'Andrea Tyson, Laura1988-04-22defense spedninggeneral equilibriumNATOdisarmamentapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/81d8n38qarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1qb3j85t2011-07-07T00:25:21Zqt1qb3j85tFactors Determining the Flow of Capital from Japan to the United StatesFrankel, Jeffrey A.1988-04-25Japanyeninternationalcapital flowsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1qb3j85tarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5f50z40s2011-07-07T00:25:18Zqt5f50z40sRisky Business: The Allocation of CapitalCraine, Roger1988-06-06riskexpected returnapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5f50z40sarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5w65g4zg2011-07-07T00:10:23Zqt5w65g4zgForward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?Froot, Kenneth A.Frankel, Jeffrey A.1988-06-06forward exchangeexchange raterisk premiumrational expectationssurvey dataapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5w65g4zgarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8sb2623g2011-07-07T00:10:20Zqt8sb2623gLabor Discipline and Aggregate Demand: A Macroeconomic ModelBowles, SamuelBoyer, Robert1988-06-08aggregate demanddistribution of incomeclass forceapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8sb2623garticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt82d2v3gb2011-07-07T00:10:16Zqt82d2v3gbContested Exchange: Political Economy and Modern Economic TheoryBowles, SamuelGintis, Herbert1988-06-07contested exchangepolitical economyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/82d2v3gbarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7sn6x89v2011-07-06T23:55:23Zqt7sn6x89vClass Anaylsis Versus World System? Epitaph for a False OppositionBowles, Samuel1988-06-08imperialismexploitationinternational economic relationshipsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7sn6x89varticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt380577jp2011-07-06T23:55:19Zqt380577jpCapitalist Technology: Endogenous Claim Enforcement and the Choice of TechniqueBowles, Samuel1988-06-08Technology and Innovationtechnologyinstitutionscommodity rights enforcementapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/380577jparticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt50s6h8c62011-07-06T23:55:16Zqt50s6h8c6Regulation GamesGilbert, Richard J.Newbery, David M.1988-06-14regulationutilitiesrepeated gameapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/50s6h8c6articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0tp305nx2011-07-06T23:55:13Zqt0tp305nxHorizontal Mergers: An Equilibrium AnalysisFarrell, JosephShapiro, Carl1988-06-16mergersoligopolyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0tp305nxarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8f31r3f12011-07-06T23:40:18Zqt8f31r3f1Optimal Exclusion and Relocation of Workers in Oversubscribed IndustriesLewis, Tracy R.Ware, RogerFeenstra, Robert1988-06-27oversubscribed industriesoveremploymentlabor economicsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8f31r3f1articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9qz440tq2011-07-06T23:40:13Zqt9qz440tqThe Gold-Exchange Standard and the Great DepressionEichengreen, Barry1988-06-28gold standardGreat Depressionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9qz440tqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7zx4t7882011-07-06T23:40:10Zqt7zx4t788Cheap Talk, Neologisms, and BargainingFarrell, JosephGibbons, Robert1988-07-25bargainingcheap talkneologismefficiencyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7zx4t788articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0134h72g2011-07-06T23:25:10Zqt0134h72gA State Space Model of the Economic FundamentalsCraine, RogerBowman, David1988-07-28dynamic programmingstate spacenonstationaryunit rootapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0134h72garticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1x20r17d2011-07-06T23:25:07Zqt1x20r17dSettling Defaults in the Era of Bond FinanceEichengreen, BarryPortes, Richard1988-08-10foreign lendingdefaultapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1x20r17darticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt71k3n6qg2011-07-06T22:55:12Zqt71k3n6qgForeign Lending in the Interwar Years: The Bondholders' PerspectiveEichengreen, BarryPortes, Richard1988-07-10foreign lendingdefaultapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/71k3n6qgarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1jr4c46d2011-07-06T22:55:08Zqt1jr4c46dEstimation of the Probability of Acquisition in an Equilibrium SettingHall, Bronwyn H.1988-08-01Technology and Innovationmergers and acquisitionsresearch and developmentnested logitdifferentiated productsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1jr4c46darticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt35c0836q2011-07-06T22:55:05Zqt35c0836qEntry, Acquisition, And the Value of Shark RepellentGilbert, Richard J.Newbery, David M.1988-07-17entryacquisitionmergerapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/35c0836qarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt01s8v4v32011-07-06T22:55:02Zqt01s8v4v3The Role of Potential Competition in Industrial OrganizationGilbert, Richard J.1988-09-22entry barrierspotential competitionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/01s8v4v3articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0zq918j52011-07-06T22:40:06Zqt0zq918j5Cheap Talk with Two Audiences: A TaxonomyFarrell, JosephGibbons, Robert1988-09-22cheap talksignalingcommunicationincentivesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0zq918j5articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5jv1h7nt2011-07-06T22:39:59Zqt5jv1h7ntManagement of a Common CurrencyCasella, AlessandraFeinstein, Jonathan1988-09-22common currencyInternational Central Bankinternational coordinationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5jv1h7ntarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7kz286cb2011-07-06T22:25:14Zqt7kz286cbThe Responsibilities of a Creditor NationEichengreen, Barry1988-10-17foreign debtcreditor nationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7kz286cbarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt17r0b2612011-07-06T22:25:10Zqt17r0b261Raiders, Junk Bonds, and RiskCraine, RogerSteigerwald, Douglas1988-10-17financingriskdisciplinary takeoverModigliani-Miller theoremjunk bondsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/17r0b261articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt10j3p4ck2011-07-06T22:25:05Zqt10j3p4ckEconomic Growth and Generalized DepreciationGoldman, Steven M.Mui, Vai-Lam1988-09-22growthdepreciationSolowneoclassicalapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/10j3p4ckarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt52q9j63w2011-07-06T22:25:00Zqt52q9j63wMobility Barriers and the Value of IncumbencyGilbert, Richard1988-10-28entry barrierspotential competitionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/52q9j63warticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4kd9k7bt2011-07-06T22:24:56Zqt4kd9k7btSome Reflections on the Use of the Concept of Power in EconomicsBardhan, Pranab1988-11-01bargaining powercredible threatauthority relationsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kd9k7btarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0z56m5252011-07-06T22:09:58Zqt0z56m525The Trend in the Rate of Labor Force Participation of Older Men, 1870-1930: A Review of the EvidenceRansom, Roger L.Sutch, Richard1988-11-28retirementlabor force participationold ageunemploymentcensus methodslife cycleapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0z56m525articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4fw7c7bh2011-07-06T22:09:53Zqt4fw7c7bhQuantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980sFrankel, Jeffrey A.1989-12-01financial intergrationinterest rate paritynational saving and investmentcovered interest arbitrageapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4fw7c7bharticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5rf5q1dx2011-07-06T21:54:54Zqt5rf5q1dxDeregulation and Scale Economies in the U.S. Trucking Industry: An Economic Extension of the Survivor PrincipleKeeler, Theodore E.1989-01-20Transportationtruckingfreighttransportationregulatory policyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5rf5q1dxarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7nt863pd2011-07-06T21:54:50Zqt7nt863pdPricing in a Deregulated Environment: The Motor Carrier ExperienceYing, John S.Keeler, Theodore E.1989-01-01Transportationtruckingfreighttransportationregulatory policyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7nt863pdarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9j31c2rr2011-07-06T21:39:49Zqt9j31c2rrpatents, technical change, antitrustGilbert, RichardShapiro, Carl1989-01-01Technology and Innovationpatentstechnical changeantitrustapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9j31c2rrarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1nr3k6nk2011-07-06T21:39:46Zqt1nr3k6nkProduct Line Rivalry with Brand DifferentiationGilbert, Richard J.Matutes, Carmen1989-01-01product differentiationentryoligopolyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1nr3k6nkarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7666n7r42011-07-06T21:09:47Zqt7666n7r4Dealing with Debt: The 1930s and the 1980sEichengreen, BarryPortes, Richard1989-02-01debtdefaultapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7666n7r4articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2wm4j93p2011-07-06T21:09:43Zqt2wm4j93pA Comparison of the EM and Newton-Raphson AlgorithmsRuud, Paul A.1989-02-01maximumlikelihoodscoringinformation matrixapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2wm4j93particleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1vs794bc2011-07-06T21:09:39Zqt1vs794bcSimultaneous Equations with Covariance RestrictionsRothenberg, Thomas J.Ruud, Paul A.1989-04-01instrumental variableslinearized maximum likelihoodminimum distancesimultaneous equations modelapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1vs794bcarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5h07k8vf2011-07-06T20:54:38Zqt5h07k8vfDoes Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and SchwartzRomer, Christina D.Romer, David H.1989-04-01Economic Policymonetary policymonetary historyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5h07k8vfarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8br8d2662011-07-06T01:06:29Zqt8br8d266Research and Development as an InvestmentHall, Bronwyn H.Hayashi, Fumio1989-05-01Technology and InnovationR&D investmentcapital expenditurestechnological shocks and panel dataapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8br8d266articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0ws6559g2011-07-06T00:51:36Zqt0ws6559gTrade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-Industry EffectsGoulder, Lawrence H.Eichengreen, Barry1989-05-01trade policygeneral equilibriumapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0ws6559garticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4xg216cg2011-07-06T00:51:32Zqt4xg216cgCollusion Through Insurance: Sharing the Costs of Oil Spill CleanupsDekel, EddieScothmer, Suzanne1989-05-01Economic PolicyEnvironmental PolicyScience and Technology Policytacit coordinationcollusionoil spillinsuranceapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4xg216cgarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2b0402g42011-07-06T00:51:29Zqt2b0402g4Simultaneous Offers and the Inefficiency of Bargaining: A Two-Period ExampleDekel, Eddie1989-05-01forward inductionsimultaneous bargainingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2b0402g4articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt20s601dc2011-07-06T00:51:26Zqt20s601dcExplicit Models of Willingness to Pay: A Monte Carlo SimulationMason, CarlQuigley, John M.1989-05-01willingness to paybenefit estimationhedonic modelsqualitative choiceapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/20s601dcarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8tx6d6nf2011-07-06T00:36:24Zqt8tx6d6nfFactor Prices in Egypt from 1900 to World War II with International ComparisonsHansen, Bent1989-06-01Other International and Area Studiesfactor price equalizationinternational comparisonsDCs and LDCsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8tx6d6nfarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5bx1n7k02011-07-05T18:05:20Zqt5bx1n7k0the Effects of Competitive Pressures on Executive BehaviorHermalin, Benjamin E.1990-09-01exectutive compensationcomparative statics in agency modelsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5bx1n7k0articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt30d734132011-07-04T04:10:40Zqt30d73413Major Fiscal Trends in the 1980s and Implications for the 1990sBreak, George1990-10-01fiscal federalismintergovernmental grantspublic sector investmenttax and expenditure competitiontax adequacytax efficiencytax equityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/30d73413articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt39n6n9ns2011-07-04T04:10:34Zqt39n6n9nsHistorical Research on International Lending and DebtEichengreen, Barry1990-12-01international lendingsovereign defaultapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/39n6n9nsarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt32c7z8ng2011-07-04T04:10:30Zqt32c7z8ngHighway Safety, Economic Behavior, and Driving EnvironmentKeeler, Theodore E.1991-03-01automobile regulationhighway safetyeconomics of healthtransportation safetyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/32c7z8ngarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8443f2842011-07-04T04:10:26Zqt8443f284Convertability and the Czech CrownFrankel, Jeffrey A.1991-03-01Eastern European reformsCzechoslovakiacurrency convertabilityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8443f284articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7jf2v1802011-07-04T04:10:22Zqt7jf2v180The Obstacles to Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in the 1990s and an Analysis of International Nominal Targeting (INT)Frankel, Jeffrey A.1991-03-01international coordinationmulti-country modelnominal GNP targetingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7jf2v180articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8px7x4342011-07-04T04:10:18Zqt8px7x434Can Informal Cooperation Stabilize Exchange Rates? Evidence from the 1936 Tripartite AgreementEichengreen, BarryJames, Caroline R.1991-03-01exchange ratespolicy coordinationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8px7x434articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8qw188tw2011-07-04T04:10:14Zqt8qw188twReneging and RenegotiatingRabin, Matthew1991-04-01renegotiationrepeated gamescredibilityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8qw188twarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt902697n72011-07-04T04:10:09Zqt902697n7A Model of Pre-Game CommunicationRabin, Matthew1991-04-01Business and Corporate Communicationspre-game communicationPareto-efficiencyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/902697n7articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7xz9d77c2011-07-04T04:10:04Zqt7xz9d77cThe Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule in an Open EconomyFrankel, Jeffrey A.1991-05-01nominal GNPmonetary targetingrules vs. discretiontime consistencymoney growth ruleapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7xz9d77carticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6b7492v12011-07-04T04:10:01Zqt6b7492v1Information and the Control of Productive AssetsRabin, Matthew1991-07-01adverse selectionmoral hazardbargainingtheory of the firmapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6b7492v1articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0gd3n1342011-07-04T04:09:40Zqt0gd3n134Rational Bubbles: A TestCraine, Roger1991-07-01efficient marketsbubblesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0gd3n134articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt79b870w02011-07-04T04:09:36Zqt79b870w0Game-Playing Agents: Unobservable Contracts as PrecommitmentsKatz, Michael L.1991-07-01agencyprecommitmentrenegotiationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/79b870w0articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6c86h1r22011-07-04T04:09:32Zqt6c86h1r2Market SocialismBardhan, PranabRoemer, John E.1991-07-01investment planningcompetitive socialismsoft budget constraintapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6c86h1r2articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7s48g9js2011-07-04T04:09:27Zqt7s48g9jsDesigning a Central Bank for Europe: A Cautionary Tale from the Early Years of the Federal ReserveEichengreen, Barry1991-07-01European Monetary Unificationcentral bankingFederal Reserve Systemapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7s48g9jsarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4p02g6nq2011-07-04T04:09:22Zqt4p02g6nqWillingness to Pay for the Quality and Intensity of Medical Care: Evidence from Low Income Households in GhanaLavy, VictorQuigley, John M.1991-09-01health care choicesGhanalow income householdstreatment frequencyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4p02g6nqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7m13v5dd2011-07-04T04:09:18Zqt7m13v5ddThe Effects of Competition on Executive BehaviorHermalin, Benjamin E.1991-10-01principal-agent problemsorganizational strategycompetitive strategyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7m13v5ddarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt37b169jt2011-07-04T04:09:12Zqt37b169jtCognitive Dissonance and Social ChangeRabin, Mathew1991-09-01cognitive dissonancesocial issuesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/37b169jtarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5481b61w2011-07-04T04:09:08Zqt5481b61wThe Use of an Agent in a Signaling ModelCaillaud, BernardHermalin, Benjamin1991-09-01Signaling models and principal-agent problemsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5481b61warticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3b1108bj2011-07-04T04:09:03Zqt3b1108bjThe Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment ProgramDeLong, J. BradfordEichengreen, Barry1991-11-01Marshall Planforeign aidEastern Europeapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3b1108bjarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4s91v88r2011-07-04T04:08:58Zqt4s91v88rEuropean Monetary Unification and the Regional Unemployment ProblemEichengreen, Barry1991-10-01monetary unificationunemploymentapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4s91v88rarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3s87d1tm2011-07-04T04:08:53Zqt3s87d1tmIncorporating Fairness Into Game TheoryRabin, Matthew1991-12-01altruismfairnesspsychological gamespublic goodsrevengeapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3s87d1tmarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1g36f3sd2011-07-04T04:08:42Zqt1g36f3sdCredit Markets and Patterns of International TradeKletzer, KennethBardhan, Pranab1986-10-10sovereign riskbankruptcy lawsmoral hazardapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1g36f3sdarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt26w957fs2011-07-04T04:08:18Zqt26w957fsExplaining the Demand for Dollars: International Rates of Return and the Expectations of Chartists and FundamentalistsFrankel, Jeffrey A.Froot, Kenneth A.1986-06-01specualtive bubbleexpectationsdollarapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/26w957fsarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3gm6c8p12011-07-04T04:08:12Zqt3gm6c8p1Extensive From Games in Continuous Time Part I: Pure StrategiesSimon, Leo K.Stinchcombe, Maxwell1986-07-01Game theorycontinuous timesubgame perfectionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3gm6c8p1articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt815528rr2011-07-04T04:08:01Zqt815528rrThe Second Welfare Theorem with Nonconvex PreferencesAnderson, Robert M.1986-09-16welfare theorynonconvexitiesWalrasian equilibriumnonstandard analysisShapley-Folkman Theoremapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/815528rrarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2364b8082011-07-04T04:07:56Zqt2364b808Using Survey Data to Explain Standard Propositions Regarding Exhange Rate ExpectationsFrankel, Jeffrey A.Froot, Kenneth A.1986-08-01exchange ratesexpectationssurvey datadollarapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2364b808articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3km049j22011-07-04T04:07:52Zqt3km049j2Risky Business: the Allocation of CapitalCraine, Roger1986-08-01riskdiversificationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3km049j2articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4968n3fz2011-07-04T04:07:48Zqt4968n3fzMeaning and Credibility in Cheap-Talk GamesFarrell, Joseph1986-09-26Business and Corporate Communicationscommunicationsignalingrefinement of equilibriumlanguagecheap talkgame theoryapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4968n3fzarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt473281hr2011-07-04T04:07:43Zqt473281hrInterest Rate Variations, Mortgage Payments and the Geographic Mobility of LaborQuigley, John1986-09-01residential mobilitydue-on-scalemortgage pricingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/473281hrarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9j39n20f2011-07-04T04:07:37Zqt9j39n20fNoncooperative Game Theory for Industrial Organization: An Introduction and OverviewFudenberg, Drew1986-11-03noncooperative game theoryapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9j39n20farticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt53m2059w2011-07-04T04:07:31Zqt53m2059wThree Essays Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate ExpectationsFrankel, Jeffrey A.Froot, Kenneth A.1986-11-03exchange ratesexpectationssurvey dataapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/53m2059warticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3gw0w3pj2011-07-04T04:07:27Zqt3gw0w3pjCommunication Between Potential EntrantsFarrell, Joseph1986-11-14entrycommunicationnatural monopolycoordinationnominationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3gw0w3pjarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt49d211x42011-07-04T04:07:22Zqt49d211x4PartnershipsFarrell, JosephScotchmer, Suzanne1986-11-26partnershipsequal-sharingcoreclubapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/49d211x4articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt62c3v2mg2011-07-04T04:07:18Zqt62c3v2mgOn the Rate of Convergence of the CoreKim, Wan-Jin1986-12-01corecompetitive gapgap minimizing pricesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/62c3v2mgarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8zs1p5cc2011-07-04T04:07:12Zqt8zs1p5ccSecond-sourcing as a Commitment: Monopoly Incentives to Attract CompetitionFarrell, JosephGallini, Nancy T.1986-12-01second-sourcinglock-incommitmentlicensingdynamic consistencyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8zs1p5ccarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4bs881012011-07-04T04:07:07Zqt4bs88101Tontine Insurance and the Armstrong Investigation: A Case of Stifled Innovation in the American Life Insurance Industry, 1868-1905Ransom, Roger L.Sutch, Richard1986-12-14Tontine insurancedeferred dividend insurancehistory of life insuranceregulationlife-cycle savingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4bs88101articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1vq3k8mj2011-07-04T04:07:03Zqt1vq3k8mjCheap Talk in Bargaining GamesFarrell, JosephGibbons, Robert1986-12-23cheap talkcommunicationbargainingmechanism designgame theoryapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1vq3k8mjarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5018p1sc2011-07-04T04:06:59Zqt5018p1scCore Allocations and Small Income TransfersAnderson, Robert M.1986-12-23CoreWalrasian equilibriumapproximate equilibriumnon-convex preferencesShapley-Folkman theoremincome transfersgap-minimizing pricesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5018p1scarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt791143kp2011-07-04T04:06:54Zqt791143kpShocking Aspects of Monetary UnificationBayoumi, TamimEichengreen, Barry1992-01-01European monetary unificationexchange rateseconomic shocksapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/791143kparticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4qd1r6g82011-07-04T04:06:49Zqt4qd1r6g8European monetary unification, EC enlargement, EFTABayoumi, TamimEichengreen, Barry1992-01-01European mentary unificationEC enlargementEFTAapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4qd1r6g8articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt6kr8157r2011-07-04T04:06:43Zqt6kr8157rThe Marshall Plan: Economic Effects and Implications for Eastern Europe and the Soviet UnionEichengreen, BarryUzan, Marc1992-01-01Marshall Planforeign aideconomic reconstructionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/6kr8157rarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4zj9603t2011-07-04T04:06:38Zqt4zj9603tExploring the Relationship Between R&D and Productivity at the Firm Level in French ManufacturingHall, Bronwyn H.Mairesse, Jacques1992-02-01Technology and InnovationR&Dproductivitypanel data manufacturingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4zj9603tarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt30c296g32011-07-04T04:06:34Zqt30c296g3Are Futures Margins Adequate?Craine, Roger1992-04-01margindefault optionfuturesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/30c296g3articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4v4548gz2011-07-04T04:06:31Zqt4v4548gzHeterogeneity in Organizational Form: Why Otherwise Identical Firms Choose Different Incentives for Their ManagersHermalin, Benjamin E.1992-05-01Principal-agent theoryindustrial organizationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4v4548gzarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5j59j6x32011-07-04T04:06:18Zqt5j59j6x3Investment and Research and Development at the Firm Level: Does the Source of Financing Matter?Hall, Bronwyn H.1992-05-01Technology and InnovationinvestmentR&Dliquidity constraintsleveragemanufacturing sectorapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5j59j6x3articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8rg1h5202011-07-04T04:06:13Zqt8rg1h520Three Perspectives on the Bretton Woods SystemEichengreen, Barry1992-02-01exchange ratesinternational monetary systemBretton Woodsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8rg1h520articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1nj556zf2011-07-04T04:06:09Zqt1nj556zfThe Determinants of Efficiency and Solvency in Savings and LoansHermalin, Benjamin E.Wallace, Nancy E.1992-05-01savings and loansnonparametric efficiency testsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1nj556zfarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5nn4v0552011-07-04T04:06:05Zqt5nn4v055Dynamic Externalities, Hysteresis, Principal-Agent ModelsBardhan, Pranab1992-06-01Dynamic ExternalitiesHysteresisPrincipal-Agent Modelsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5nn4v055articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1z24w2q72011-07-04T04:06:01Zqt1z24w2q7The Core and the Hedonic Core: Equivalence and Comparative StatisticsEngl, GregScotchmer, Suzanne1992-07-01CoreHedonic CoreMonotonicityCore Convergenceapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1z24w2q7articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt54f523db2011-07-04T04:05:58Zqt54f523dbIncorporating Behaviroal Assumptions Into Game TheoryRabin, Matthew1992-07-01behaviroal assumptionscoordinationNash equilibriumPareto efficiencyrationalizabilityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/54f523dbarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2cw6411c2011-07-04T04:05:53Zqt2cw6411cIncorporating Fairness Into Game TheoryRabin, Matthew1992-07-01altruismfairnesspsychological gamespublic goodrevengeapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2cw6411carticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2zv2q4zc2011-07-04T04:05:49Zqt2zv2q4zcA Consumer's Guide to EMUEichengreen, Barry1992-07-01European monetary unificationexchange ratesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2zv2q4zcarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4gf4d2hc2011-07-04T04:05:43Zqt4gf4d2hcMacroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse-Response AnalysisBayoumi, TamimEichengreen, Barry1992-08-01Bretton Woodsexchange ratesinternational adjustmentapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4gf4d2hcarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2fz158jc2011-07-04T04:05:40Zqt2fz158jcOligopoly Structure and the Incidence of Cigarette Excise TaxesBarnett, Paul G.Keeler, Theodore E.Hu, Teh-wei1992-09-01cigarettetaxationoligopolyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2fz158jcarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt280289bg2011-07-04T04:05:36Zqt280289bgthe Impact of 1989 California Major Anti-Smoking Legislation Cigarette Consumption: Three Years LaterHu, Teh-weiBai, JushanBarnett, Paul G.1992-09-01cigarettestaxationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/280289bgarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt675401d42011-07-04T04:05:32Zqt675401d4A Dynamic Simultaneous-Equations Model for Cigarette Consumption in the Western StatesSung, Hai-YenHu, Teh-WeiKeeler, Theodore E.1992-11-01cigarettestaxationregualtionaddictionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/675401d4articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt89x045w52011-07-04T04:04:02Zqt89x045w5Maastricht: Prospect and RetrospectLetiche, John M.1992-12-01MaastrichtEuropean Union Treatyquantitative estimates of Maastricht indicatorseconomic projections of Maastricht indicatorspros and cons of Maastrichtapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/89x045w5articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3gh3726k2011-07-04T04:01:28Zqt3gh3726kNonparametric Methods to Measure Efficiency: A Comparison of MethodsGarbaccio, Richard F.Hermalin, Benjamin E.Wallace, Nancy E.1992-12-01Nonparametric tests of efficiencydata envelopment analysisfinancial institutionsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3gh3726karticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3df5357v2011-07-04T04:01:24Zqt3df5357vExplicit Tests of Contingent Claims Models of Mortgage DefaultsQuigley, John M.1993-11-01contingent claimshomeowner equitymortgage defaultoptions modelsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3df5357varticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt1zb7p2ws2011-07-04T04:01:20Zqt1zb7p2wsRivalrous Benefit Taxation: The Independent Viability of Separate Agencies or FirmsEdlin, Aaron S.Epelbaum, Mario1993-12-01increasing returnsnonlinear pricingsubstitutesgeneral equilibriumapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/1zb7p2wsarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt44x548gq2011-07-04T04:01:15Zqt44x548gqThe Value of Intangible Corporate Assets: An Empirical Study of the Components of Tobin's QHall, Bronwyn H.1993-01-01Technology and InnovationR&D investmentmarket valueTobin's Qintangible assetsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/44x548gqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8151h8tg2011-07-04T04:01:12Zqt8151h8tgR&D Tax Policy During the 1980s: Success of Failure?Hall, Bronwyn H.1993-01-01Technology and InnovationR&D investmenttax creditR&D tax policyR&D elasticityapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8151h8tgarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7cb0d9zc2011-07-04T04:01:07Zqt7cb0d9zcHospital Costs and Excess Bed Capacity: A Statistical AnalysisKeeler, Theodore E.Ying, John S.1993-04-01Hospitality Administration and Managementhospital costsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7cb0d9zcarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5g3251582011-07-04T04:01:03Zqt5g325158Homothetic Preferences, Homothetic Transformations, and the Law of Demand in Exchange EconomiesQuah, John K.-H.1993-04-01homothetic preferenceshomothetic transformationsheterogeneity of preferenceslaw of demanduniqueness of equilibriumtatonnementapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5g325158articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt40s882v62011-07-04T04:00:59Zqt40s882v6Deviations, Dynamics and Equilibrium RefinementsRabin, MatthewSobel, Joel1993-05-01deviationsdynamicsequilibriumintuitive criterionnever a weak best responsesignaling refinementsstiglitz critiqueapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/40s882v6articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7r6236072011-07-04T03:59:53Zqt7r623607Nonparametric Multivariate Regression Subject to ConstraintGoldman, Steven M.1993-05-01nonparametric regressionconstrained least squaresquadratic programmingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7r623607articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0gf4p3ts2011-07-04T03:59:42Zqt0gf4p3tsLoss Aversion in a Savings ModelBowman, DavidMinehart, DebbyRabin, Matthew1993-05-01consumptionhabit formationloss aversionreference pointsrisk aversionsavingsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0gf4p3tsarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt8gp566432011-07-04T03:59:35Zqt8gp56643Asset Prices and the Fundamentals: A Q TestCraine, Roger1993-06-01financial asset valuesTobin's Q model of investmentequilibriuminvestmentfundamentalsapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/8gp56643articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt30b211md2011-07-04T03:59:31Zqt30b211mdA Note on the Finiteness of the Set of Equilibria in an Exchange Economy with Constrained EndowmentsMinehart, Deborah1993-09-01Genericitylocal uniquenessconstrained endowment spaceapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/30b211mdarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5mc5c8hd2011-07-04T03:59:28Zqt5mc5c8hdInstitutional Prerequisites for Economic Growth: Europe After World War IIEichengreen, Barry1993-09-01EuropeEconomic Growthapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5mc5c8hdarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt33d879r92011-07-04T03:59:24Zqt33d879r9Industrial Research During the 1980s: Did the Rate of Return Fall?Hall, Bronwyn H.1993-09-01R&D investmentmarket valueTobin's Qmanufacturingapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/33d879r9articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt5pw3c49m2011-07-04T03:58:59Zqt5pw3c49mEfficient Standards of Due Care: Should Courts Find More Parties Negligent Under Comparative Negligence?Edlin, Aaron S.1993-10-01tortscomparative negligenceevidentiary uncertaintyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/5pw3c49marticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3cg196fr2011-07-04T03:58:55Zqt3cg196frClassical Estimation Methods for LDV Models Using SimulationHajivassiliou, Vassilis ARuud, Paul A.1993-10-01multivariate integrationlimited dependent variable modelsMonte Carlo simulationmaximum simulated likelihoodmethod of simulated momentsmethod of simulated scoresapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3cg196frarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt4j31k8gh2011-07-04T03:58:52Zqt4j31k8ghConvergence of the Aumann-Davis-Maschler and Geanakoplos Bargaining SetsAnderson, Robert M.1994-01-01bargaining setcontinuum economiesWalrasian equilibriumgeneral equilibrium theoryapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/4j31k8gharticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0fc8c73x2011-07-04T03:58:48Zqt0fc8c73xNonconvergence of the Mas-Colell and Zhou Bargaining SetsAnderson, Robert M.Trockel, WalterZhou, Lin1994-01-01bargaining setcontinuum economiesWalrasian equilibriumgeneral equilibrium theoryapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0fc8c73xarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt2qn486rp2011-07-04T03:58:44Zqt2qn486rpTobacco Taxes and the Anti-Smoking Media Campaign: The California ExperienceHu, Teh-weiSung, Hai-yenKeeler, Theodore E.1994-01-01taxationmedia campaigncigarettesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2qn486rparticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt06g8q5dm2011-07-04T03:58:40Zqt06g8q5dmPerspectives on the Borchardt DebateEichengreen, Barry1993-11-01Germany and Great Depresssionapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/06g8q5dmarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3zh5j1p82011-07-04T03:58:37Zqt3zh5j1p8Walrasian Comparative StudiesBrown, Donald J.Matzkin, Rosa L.1994-01-01general equilibriumcomparative staticsquantifier eliminationapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3zh5j1p8articleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt3568z5kq2011-07-04T03:58:33Zqt3568z5kqCorporate Diversification and AgencyHermalin, Benjamin E.Katz, Michael L.1994-02-01diversificationprincipal-agent relationshipapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/3568z5kqarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt9fc2n3jc2011-07-04T03:58:28Zqt9fc2n3jcDensity Weighted Linear Least SquaresNewey, Whitney K.Ruud, Paul A.1994-08-01semi-parametric index modelsaverage derivativesinverse-density-weighted least squaresapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/9fc2n3jcarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7dk2p3nn2011-07-04T03:57:18Zqt7dk2p3nnUnemployment and the Structure of the Labor Markets: The Long ViewEichengreen, Barry1994-10-01unemploymentlabor marketseconomic historyapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7dk2p3nnarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt7kj202cz2011-07-04T03:57:13Zqt7kj202czDebt Deflation and Financial Instability: Two Historical ExplorationsEichengreen, BarryGrossman, Richard S.1994-10-01debt deflationfinancial instabilitybank failuresbusiness cyclesapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/7kj202czarticleoai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt0xn4k27n2011-07-04T03:57:10Zqt0xn4k27nIncreasing Returns in Infinite Horizon EconomiesShannon, Chris1994-10-01increasing returnsinfinite horizon economiesLeray-Schauder degreeapplication/pdfpubliceScholarship, University of Californiahttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xn4k27narticleoai_dc:iber_econ:500:851:eyJmaXJzdCI6NTAwLCJpbmNsdWRlIjpbIlBVQkxJU0hFRCIsIkVNQkFSR09FRCJdLCJvcmRlciI6IlVQREFURURfREVTQyIsImxhc3RJRCI6InF0MHhuNGsyN24iLCJsYXN0RGF0ZSI6IjIwMTEtMDctMDNUMjA6NTc6MTAtMDc6MDAifQ