Recent igcc_PP items

Planning Your Career in Peacemaking

Thu, 3 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

From the introduction:

For over ten years now, I have been working in the Career Services Center of the University of California, Santa Cruz. My duties include attempting to give advice and practical help to a growing number of students who come to me with this problem: "Just how do I apply my own commitment to peace, my classroom knowledge, my desire to contribute to peacemaking, to the realities of the working world? In a word, "How can I work for peace, and make a living at it?" Gradually I have taken upon myself the task of trying to answer this most challenging question. I began by gathering information on a number of organizations that are working to create conditions and mechanisms, at the international level, for reducing conflicts, solving problems, and developing understanding. I was encouraged by the fact that there already exists a number of helpful publications in this area. Following this, in this pamphlet, I have tried to define specific fields of a peacemaking...

SDI, The Federal Republic of Germany, and NATO: Political, Economic, and Strategic Implications

Thu, 3 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Initial European reactions to President Reagan's Strategic DefenseInitiative (SDI) speech were a mixture of disbelief and irritation. European military-strategic concerns are several and are presented in the paper in five separate butoverlapping sections: 1) questions about coupling, the credibility of theAmerican nuclear guarantee and effects on NATO strategy and doctrine; 2) concerns about strategic instabilities and the arms race; 3) worries about the future of arms control and the ABM Treaty; 4) speculation about the impact on the French and British nuclear forces and alliance cohesion; and 5) anxieties over the enormous costs involved.

Policy Paper 54: Coping with Water Scarcity: The Governance Challenge

Wed, 5 Aug 2015 00:00:00 +0000

Water is becoming increasingly scarce all over the world. All indicators of water availability show that per capita supplies will continue to decline in the years ahead. A conservative recent estimate projects that 1.8 billion people will live in regions or countries with “absolute water scarcity” by 2025: that is, they will not have enough water to maintain their current level of per capita food production and also meet burgeoning urban demands, even at high levels of irrigation efficiency (Seckler, Molden, and Barker 1999). An additional 350 million will live in regions with “severe water scarcity,” “where the potential water resources are sufficient to meet reasonable water needs by 2025, but (only if the country) embarks on massive water development projects, at enormous cost and possibly severe environmental damage, to achieve this objective” (ibid., 1). There will also be additional, sometimes severe, localized water scarcities, even within countries that, in aggregate,...

What do we do with Nuclear Weapons Now?

Fri, 1 Jul 2005 00:00:00 +0000

Written in the immediate aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union, the document contains discussion about possible future trajectories for cooperation over Nuclear weapons. Seeing neither the grounds for continued competition nor immediate cooperation, the authors prescribe a path of cautious engagement in cooperative measures to diminish any nuclear threat.

SDI: Two Views of Professional Responsibility

Fri, 25 Feb 2005 00:00:00 +0000

A juxtaposition of two competing views regarding the development and implementation of SDI, the article takes its two positions from two separate sources. These opposing opinions are for either the implementation of SDI on defense grounds or the cancelling of SDI to prevent destabilitization.

The University and the Nuclear Predicament

Fri, 25 Feb 2005 00:00:00 +0000

This paper discusses the response of the university, as an institution, to the "nuclear predicatmen" i.e. to the threat of a major nuclear war and its implications. The subject is treated in a rather broad context including teaching, research, conferences, community education, etc., at universities in the United States and Canada. The main emphasis, however, is on undergraduate education. The author's own insitution, the University of California, is examined in the greatest detail. A very limited statistical analysis is presented. The authors conclude that the University's role is still very inadequate and they estimate the amgnitude of additional required efforts.

The Strategic Defense Initiative: A Critique and Primer

Fri, 25 Feb 2005 00:00:00 +0000

As a critique of SDI, the article covers all aspects of SDI development and implementation. From the politcal, legal and moral concerns presented by SDI to the technical difficulties in implementation of such systems, the ABM issue is tackled in whole by Jungerman.

Policy Paper 07: Workshop on Arms Control and Security in the Middle East II Summary Report

Mon, 10 Jan 2005 00:00:00 +0000

The Middle East peace process is now moving more rapidly than ever before. Many actors in the region have displayed a newfound willingness to adopt innovative approaches to resolving persistent conflicts. Though many obstacles remain, the end of the Cold War, the accord signed between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization in September 1993, and other recent hopeful developments in the bilateral and multilateral talks have opened the door to real progress in regional security and arms control. The door may quickly shut, however, if promising signs are not translated into concrete, practical, and verifiable agreements.

Policy Paper 01: Building Towards Middle East Peace: Working Group Reports from "Cooperative Security in the Middle East"

Mon, 10 Jan 2005 00:00:00 +0000

Complex historical, ideological, political, and military factors have created a vicious circle of mutual threat perception in the Middle East, so that every action, whether political or military, by the protagonists contributes to a process that generates increased fear and suspicion among them. Is there a way to break this vicious circle? Guardedly, the short answer is yes. There are now historic opportunities, created both by the Gulf War in 1991, and by the end of the Cold War which have minimized, if not actually eliminated, the rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union in the Middle East. The new detente heralds an era of superpower cooperation that seeks to reduce and resolve regional conflicts. The prospects for controlling the Arab-Israeli conflict are now much better than at any time in its history. It would be a tragic error on the part of any country, regional or not, to miss this opportunity to move away from conflict and toward cooperation.

Policy Paper 12: U.S. Intervention in Ethnic Conflict

Mon, 10 Jan 2005 00:00:00 +0000

Transnational ethnic conflict is a major source of violence and instability in the contemporary international system. It is too early to tell whether this threat will prove to be a transitory consequence of the collapse of multinational states, such as the Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia, or will become a defining characteristic of post-Cold War world politics. In either case, recent instances of ethnic strife in Bosnia, Chechnya, Rwanda and the Kurdish area of northern Iraq remind us that ethnic conflicts will pose continuing problems for U.S. foreign policy.

Policy Paper 04: Workshop on Arms Control and Security in the Middle East

Mon, 10 Jan 2005 00:00:00 +0000

The Workshop on Arms Control and Security in the Middle East, sponsored by the University of California's Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, was a private and unofficial symposium intended to promote dialogue on arms control in the Middle East. It also provided information on and explored the applicability of the U.S–Soviet arms control experience. Due to the historic distrust among the parties in the Middle East, the workshop emphasized technical procedural measures that might be implemented to reduce uncertainty and increase transparency and information, thereby ameliorating, although not eliminating, suspicions. Special attention was paid to methods of reducing the likelihood of inadvertent war brought on by tensions, crises, misperception, and escalation. It was recognized that although technical measures cannot overcome political differences, they can facilitate political agreements by reducing the risks such agreements might entail.

Policy Paper 14: Promoting Regional Cooperation in the Middle East

Mon, 10 Jan 2005 00:00:00 +0000

Since the inception of the Middle East Peace Process in 1991, arms control and regional security issues have been one of the most difficult areas to address. The establishment and functioning of the official multilateral Arms Control and Regional Security (ACRS) Working Group in the multilateral process has had to overcome at best lack of knowledge and at worst deep skepticism on the part of Arab and Israeli officials and onlookers about arms control. In that regard, the parallel process of so-called “track-two” non-official discussions has helped to increase understanding and build support for the concept of a regional arms control and confidence-building component in the overall Middle East Peace Process.

Policy Paper 13: African Conflict Management and the New World Order

Mon, 10 Jan 2005 00:00:00 +0000

With the end of the Cold War, a New World Order is in the process of being formed. Africa has not been immune to the dramatic shifts in the world economic and political order. The end of superpower competition on the continent has had significant implications for African regional security. One of the defining features of the new order is the increased scope and intensity of domestic conflicts that have spilled, or have the potential to spill, over national borders into neighboring states. Conflicts such as those occurring in Somalia, Rwanda, Liberia, and Sudan have attracted the involvement of international and regional actors in the quest for conflict management and prevention. In the process, the notions of state sovereignty and the norms of external intervention in domestic disputes are currently being reconsidered in international and regional fora. It is clear that mechanisms must be developed to allow Africans to address the most severe domestic tensions and conflicts...

Policy Paper 10: The United States and Japan in Asia Conference Papers

Thu, 5 Dec 2002 00:00:00 +0000

The paper includes brief policy memos commissioned for the March 1994 IGCC conference, "The United States and Japan in Asia." Issue areas included politics and security, economics, science, technology, and the environment, and humna rights.

Policy Paper 56: Maritime Aspects of Arms Control and Security Improvement in the Middle East

Thu, 5 Dec 2002 00:00:00 +0000

This paper examines the concept of maritime confidence building and suggests potential uses in the Middle East. It establishes that thinking and application of confidence building generally, but maritime confidence building specifically has traditionally focused on measures. It has ignored the activities and steps that are taken to improve cooperation. This ‘Transition View’ provides a framework to consider the maritime confidence building in the past and lessons for the future.

The author considers the history of confidence building and the success maritime agencies and organizations have had worldwide with such efforts by examining regional arrangements and activities. The paper then draws upon the lessons of these experiences and the characteristics that make maritime CB a particularly useful tool. From this perspective the author is able to draw a number of possibilities for application in the Middle East. They involve interaction of personnel, undertaking joint...

Policy Paper 09: Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue II Conference Papers

Thu, 5 Dec 2002 00:00:00 +0000

These papers were prepared as background papers for the May 1994 meeting of hte NEACD in Tokyo. They neither represent a consensus of the participants nor a summary of any part of the discussions at any of the meetings. They are presented here in the hopes that other readers outside of the NEACD prcess will find them to be as useful and thought-provoling as did the hosts and participants.

Policy Paper 20: Ethnic Fears and Global Engagement: The International Spread and Management of Ethnic Conflict

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Paper 20: Ethnic Fears and Global Engagement: The International Spread and Management of Ethnic Conflict

Policy Paper 26: The Middle East Arms Control and Regional Security Talks: Progress, Problems, and Prospects

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

The record of the Arms Control and Regional Security (ACRS) Working Group thus far is a mixed one. On the one hand, the very creation of a multilateral process for arms control and regional security in a region where no comparable process ever before existed is in itself a significant achievement. A working agenda then was defined, and by late 1994 a series of initial multilateral agreements had been negotiated for confidence-building measures (CBMs), confidence-and-security-building measures (CSBMs), and other regional security initiatives. Since then, however, ACRS has virtually broken down. The next steps, from negotiation to implementation, for the most part have not been taken. A number of factors have contributed to this breakdown, most notably Egypt’s linkage of progress on the entirety of the ACRS agenda to the conflict with Israel on the nuclear issue. A plenary meeting has not been held for almost two years, and ACRS has gone from leader to laggard among the Middle...

Policy Paper 06: Northeast Asian Economic Cooperation in the Post-Cold War Era

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Paper 06: Northeast Asian Economic Cooperation in the Post-Cold War Era

Policy Paper 19: Maritime Jurisdiction in the Three China Seas

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

The three China Seas (the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea) are all enclosed or semi-enclosed and studded with so many offshore and mid-ocean islands that nowhere does the distance from one headland or island to another approach 400 nautical miles. With the extension of national jurisdiction over maritime resources, no seabed in the area is left unclaimed.

China has maritime jurisdictional disputes with other coastal states bordering on the China Seas. The controversies involve two dimensions: territorial sovereignty over islands, and relevant jurisdictional rights and interests in maritime demarcation. The territorial disputes are a legacy of history, and the demarcation disputes are mainly due to differing interpretations of the law of the sea.

In the post-Cold War Asia Pacific, economic development is the primary task for all regional countries. As demand for marine resources becomes more and more pressing, new approaches are needed for...

Policy Paper 05: Regional Cooperation and Environmental Issues in Northeast Asia

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Hayes and Zarsky describe the rapidly emerging agenda for regional collaboration on environmental issues in Northeast Asia. In Part One, they describe briefly some of the major transfrontier or regional environmental issues in Northeast Asia that represent a menu of opportunities for cooperation (and potential conflict) between states. These issues include transfrontier air pollution (acid rain only), marine pollution (radionuclides and oil only), migratory species (fish only), and trade-environment linkages related to increasing regional economic integration. Part Two examines the emerging and somewhat overlapping regional environmental management regimes. These include UNEP’s Northwest Pacific Action Plan or NOWPAP, the IOC WESTPAC, the ESCAP/UNDP Northeast Asian Environment Program, and the UNDP Subregional Technical Cooperation and Development Program.

Policy Paper 22: The Moral Foundation of International Intervention

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

International law, especially as it has been modified by the Charter of the United Nations, is grounded on actual or hypothetical agreements among sovereign states. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1948, and related agreements, set a standard of human rights to be observed by sovereign states. Neither the charter nor the declaration specify under what circumstances human rights violations may justify intervention and contravention of the rule of sovereignty. Despite the potential conflict between these two standards on international behavior, there is a widespread belief that a broad range of human rights are based on international law, and that international law is based on a foundation of universally recognized principles of morality.

Moralpolitik, or a morally grounded foreign policy, if it is to have any practical significance, must be rooted in the moral consensus of the political community. There is no reason to assume...

Policy Paper 23: Workshop on Arms Control and Security in the Middle East III

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Events in the second half of 1995 and the first months of 1996 dramatically illustrated the promise, and the pitfalls, of the Middle East peace process. On one hand, steps toward political, cultural, economic, and environmental cooperation among the parties continued, evidenced by the October 1995 economic summit in Amman and the water agreement signed by Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority in February 1996. On the other hand, serious concerns persisted over the threats posed by conventional arms, weapons of mass destruction, and terrorism, exemplified by the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Rabin, exchanges of rocket and artillery fire in Lebanon, and continued suicide bombings. Such events demonstrate the continuing need to investigate the underlying dynamics and problems of the peace process and to propose cooperative solutions and confidence-building measures, particularly in the field of regional security.

Policy Paper 02: Climate Change: A Challenge to the Means of Technology Transfer

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Paper 02: Climate Change: A Challenge to the Means of Technology Transfer

Policy Paper 08: The Domestic Sources of Nuclear Postures: Influencing Fence-Sitters in the Post-Cold War Era

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

This paper derives policy recommendations from a new understanding of countries unwilling to renounce nuclear designs , or “fence-sitters.” These are the few states reluctant to commit themselves fully and effectively to a global or regional nonproliferation regime.

Academic and foreign policy experts and practitioners alike have traditionally explained the behavior of fence-sitters in terms of fundamental problems of physical survival in an anarchic world. While accepting this fundamental premise, I suggest that fence-sitters have a choice of instruments for coping with security problems. Some have maintained ambiguous nuclear policies; others have chosen to commit to nuclear nonproliferation while embarking on a strategy of integration into the global political economy. Domestic politics largely influenced whether fence-sitters chose one path or the other.

The opening section of this paper explores why it is imperative to bring domestic politics more explicitly...

Policy Paper 21: The Importance of Space in Violent Ethno-Religious Strife

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Paper 21: The Importance of Space in Violent Ethno-Religious Strife

Policy Paper 15: Peace, Stability, and Nuclear Weapons

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Paper 15: Peace, Stability, and Nuclear Weapons

Policy Paper 29: The Political Economy of International Environmental Cooperation

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Few now doubt that successfully managing environmental challenges will be central to public policy in the coming century. Unless the international community can cope with transnational problems such as global warming, destruction of species and tropical rain-forests, depletion of oceanic fish stocks, and increasing water scarcity in arid regions, both domestic and international conflicts may easily arise. The problems of international environmental political economy pose increasingly pressing issues for analysts, policy makers, and citizens.

Such concerns helped to motivate the project, “The Political Economy of International Environmental Cooperation,” sponsored by the Institute on Global Cooperation and Conflict and generously funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur foundation. The project supported University of California graduate students writing their Ph.D. dissertations on issues of international environmental cooperation. On concluding their dissertation...

Policy Paper 27: Preventive Diplomacy and Ethnic Conflict: Possible, Difficult, Necessary

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

The track record of "preventive diplomacy" in the first years of the post-Cold War era is not particularly encouraging. Croatia, Bosnia, Somalia, Rwanda, Nagorno-Karabakh, Chechnya, Tajikistan, “Kurdistan”—the list goes on to include over 90 armed conflicts since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the vast majority of which have been ethnic conflicts. Indeed, in the view of U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry, it is ethnic conflict that is driving “much of the need for military forces in the world today” (Defense Department 1994).

Some have questioned whether the whole concept of preventive diplomacy is yet another false and misleading “alchemy for a new world order” (Stedman 1995). That it has been “oversold,” its difficulties underestimated and its risks undervalued is a fair criticism. But to simply write it off would be to commit the mirror-image mistake of those too eager and uncritical in their embrace. Instead, in my view we need to proceed from three basic postulates:...

Policy Paper 16: Ethnic Conflict and Russian Intervention in the Caucasus

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

The collapse of the Soviet Union was remarkably peaceful, but its aftermath has been remarkably violent. To keep its multiethnic empire together, the Soviet regime used a mixed bag of political and economic instruments, developed over decades of Communist power and centuries of Russian imperial rule. The sudden end of the Soviet system destroyed most of these instruments and left the leaders of the new states of Eurasia holding the bag. As a result, these countries have become fertile ground for demagoguery, separatism, and ethnic strife. The ongoing conflict in Chechnya is the most visible manifestation of the potential for ethnic violence that exists throughout the region. To assess the likelihood of further conflict in the former Soviet states, and to debate various approaches for its control and moderation, IGCC invited some of the region’s leading specialists on ethnic affairs to a conference held at the University of California, Davis in March 1995. Part of the Institute’s...

Policy Paper 25: Economic Globalization and the "New" Ethnic Strife: What Is to Be Done?

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

December 1994 saw the Russian military launch an assault on Grozny, capital of the obscure Caucasian autonomous republic of Chechnya, in an effort to put an end to its pretensions to national independence. Three years earlier, in 1991, a renegade Chechen general in the Russian Army, Djokar Dudayev, had acceded to the pleadings of Chechen “elders” who wished to take the territory out of the Russian Federation-Russia. By mid-1996, what had quite unexpectedly become a very bloody operation, and a political hot potato in Moscow, remained uncompleted. In spite of a declaration of cease-fire by President Yeltsin and the killing of Dudayev, Chechen “freedom fighters” based in the mountains and villages continued to wage an Afghan-style struggle against the “occupiers” from Moscow. After some 30,000 deaths, most of them civilian, there was no end in sight.

Is the war in Chechnya sui generis, as some would claim? Or is it symptomatic of a broader class of wars? As of late 1995,...

Policy Paper 17: Regional Economic Cooperation: The Role of Agricultural Production and Trade in Northeast Asia

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

The role of agriculture in Northeast Asian cooperation has been important for many years. However, the end of the Cold War and the recent security concerns in Northeast Asia have made this issue more urgent. In addition, recent developments in international agricultural relations have changed the context in which nations of the region are now making agricultural and food-related policy. These broader issues provide the context for this paper.

It has long been understood that food and agriculture are vital to the security of any nation or region. However, the nature of this relationship is sometimes misunderstood: it is easy to overlook the fact that a goal of food and agricultural security is consistent with a goal of economic progress and overall economic security. It is now more widely accepted that liberalized trade and privatization of agriculture are critically important for economic development and income growth, whereas restricted trade and food self-sufficiency...

Policy Paper 18: Is Pandora's Box Half-empty or Half-full? The Limited Virulence of Secessionism and the Domestic Sources of Disintegration

Mon, 4 Nov 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Paper 18: Is Pandora's Box Half-empty or Half-full? The Limited Virulence of Secessionism and the Domestic Sources of Disintegration

Policy Paper 11: China’s Nonconformist Reforms

Mon, 14 Oct 2002 00:00:00 +0000

How has China achieved its spectacular economic growth under reform, despite having no commercial law, no financial market, prices that are only partially freed, and no privatization? I argue that the fundamental reasons for China’s success are not unique to China. China succeeded because it unleashed the forces of competition. China shows the power of incentives; but it also shows that, in a transition economy, workable incentives can take surprisingly nonstandard forms. Novel institutional forms evolved to solve the unprecedented problems of transition. Entry of new firms, albeit with an unusual ownership structure, produced a competitive non-state industrial sector. New state-imposed incentives induced the state-owned firms to improve their efficiency. The discipline on managers that comes from product-market competition helped compensate for the missing financial-market discipline. Reputation incentives substituted for formal legal enforcement of contracts.

Policy Paper 48: Conventional Arms Control in the Middle East: Conceptual Challenges and An Illustrative Framework

Mon, 14 Oct 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Discussion of Middle East arms control has centered on weapons of mass destruction and confidence building measures, ignoring the possibility of a conventional arms control arrangement. Although the potential for such an agreement may be distant, the author argues that the changing environment in the Middle East requires that this issue be given new consideration. The exploration of conventional arms control also may focus Washington’s attention on what such an agreement should include, thus enabling policymakers to avoid wasting time and political capitol when the prospects for such an agreement emerge. The author explores the requirements for such an agreement and outlines them in an illustrative framework.

Any arms control package must address five requirements. The first is to maintain the ability of states to defend themselves, either through their own efforts or in combination with others. It must decrease the feasibility of a state taking offensive action, particularly...

Policy Paper 03: Japan in Search of a “Normal” Role

Mon, 14 Oct 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Paper 03: Japan in Search of a “Normal” Role

Policy Paper 24: Energy and Security in Northeast Asia

Mon, 14 Oct 2002 00:00:00 +0000

In conjunction with its meeting in Seoul in September 1996, NEACD hosted a two-day workshop on Northeast Asia energy issues that brought together leading experts from the participating countries on energy demand and supply, nuclear fuel cycle concerns, and how these issues impact upon the security decision-making process in each country in the region. But energy is not only a possible threat, it is also one of the most promising areas for cooperative security. The workshop explored the potential for regional cooperation in energy as a promising MRM in Northeast Asia. These papers were commissioned for the workshop.

Policy Paper 31: Designing Transitions from Violent Civil War

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Paper 31: Designing Transitions from Violent Civil War

Policy Paper 50: Germany and the United States:Searching for 21st Century Migration Policies

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

As immigration and integration become subject to heightened public debate and policy attention, Germany and the United States must rethink the policy process in order to promote policy consistency and awareness of its international repercussions. Recent German and U.S. debates and policy changes point to the need for agencies to monitor developments and suggest policy options, and administrative structures that permit some flexibility in administering immigration and integration policies.

This paper (1) summarizes Germany's postwar migration history, (2) reviews the major proposals for changes in Germany's immigration and integration policies before the 1998 elections, (3) summarizes the SPD-Green proposal and its likely impacts, (4) highlights unfinished immigration and integration issues, and (5) compares Germany's immigration debates with similar U.S. debates.

Policy Paper 35: Energy and Security in Northeast Asia: Fueling Security

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Energy and Security in Northeast Asia is a three-part series of papers showing that there are unrealized gains to be had from multilateral cooperation on energy issues. Such cooperation is the goal of the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation’s Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), an informal track-two discussion exploring the potential for cooperation on security issues among China, Japan, Russia, the Republic of Korea, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, and the United States. Many papers in this collection first were presented to a September 1996 NEACD workshop on Northeast Asian energy and security held in Seoul, Korea. That workshop offered participating government officials and private experts an opportunity to explore the ramifications of increasing energy demand on future relations among their countries. After the workshop, IGCC solicited additional papers to analyze the basic premises among our initial contributions.

Policy Paper 51: Security Multilateralism in Asia: Views from the United States and japan

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

In this policy paper, two leading authorities on the topic--one Japanese and one American--take a look at the rise of regional multilateralism in Asia. Akiko Fukushima’s monograph provides a rich historical background on Japan’s periodic flirtation with multilateralism, including the disappointments during the inter- war and immediate post-war period. Dr. Fukushima traces renewed interest in multilateralism to a thaw in relations with Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union, and outlines in rich detail the range of initiatives in which the Japanese have not only participated, but played a central role. Her analysis points to an emerging liberal consensus that multilateralism, while beneficial, needs to be seen as augmenting the core, bilateral relationship with the United States. Moreover, she traces the complex thinking about the appropriate scope for multilateral initiatives and notes that there is no natural or easy membership that makes sense for Japan. However,...

Policy Paper 38: Europe After NATO Expansion: The Unfinished Security Agenda

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

The debate on European security over the past several years has focused almost exclusively on the question of whether, and to which countries, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) should expand its membership. With the near certainty of NATO Parliaments ratifying the admission to NATO of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic in 1999, two important policy issues now loom: how enlargement will affect NATO's contribution to European security, and whether further enlargement is a preferable course of action to other alternatives for enhancing security in Europe.

This assessment concludes that NATO's central challenges will remain internal. The NATO allies have still not developed a workable consensus on the breadth, either geographically or functionally, of NATO's role in post-Cold War Europe. As discussions over the cost of enlargement and the crisis in Iraq have demonstrated, the burdensharing issue remains a source of resentment on both sides of the Atlantic....

Policy Paper 40: Assessing the Policy of Engagement with China

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

China is, and will continue to be for some time to come, a great concern to U.S. administrations. The Clinton administration has chosen to pursue a policy of engagement with China, arguing that it is best to try to bring China into “the community of nations” rather than to contain and isolate it. Integrating China through a policy of engagement has meant, most importantly, the maintenance and expansion of American trade with, and the encouragement of investments in, China. There have been some limits to the administration’s policy though, for a tough line has been taken toward China on membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and on the piracy of intellectual property (e.g., compact discs and videos). Engagement empowers pacific economic internationalists in China, while containment would likely bring to the fore more aggressive political and economic interests.

What are the security implications of such a policy? This paper focuses on the impact that America’s...

Policy Paper 52: Understanding Europe’s "New" Common Foreign and Security Policy

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

The European Union (EU) has recently re-launched its ambitions for a Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), which might even lead to a European Security and Defense Identity (ESDI). This paper explains the functioning of these mechanisms for outsiders and assesses the EU’s potential for success in these domains by placing them in their proper historical context, which extends back to the creation of "European Political Cooperation" in 1970. It argues that despite a number of obstacles there are still strong reasons to believe that the EU will be able to develop more effective cooperation in these areas, based on 1) the EU’s common foreign/security policy interests; 2) recent changes in the decision-making mechanisms of the CFSP/ESDI; 3) the common European resources that are now devoted to this area; and 4) the EU’s performance record in foreign/security policy cooperation, which is not limited to its problems in the Balkans. While generally optimistic, the paper concludes...

Policy Paper 53: European Legal Integration and Environmental Protection

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

This paper examines how the European Court of Justice (ECJ) has operated to expand the integration project and has done so by serving as a forum for transnational political action by domestic and supranational policy actors. In particular, I study this integrative dynamic through the evolution of environmental protection policy in the European Union (EU). The purpose of this analysis is to reveal how the Court’s construction of supranational norms operates to fuel the integration process, and often in opposition to national government preferences. The data presented in this analysis pertains to Article 234 (ex Article 177) of the European Community (EC) Treaty. By studying this process, I am able to reveal not only the role of the Court in creating European environmental laws, but the integral role that both national judges and private litigants (individuals and interest groups) play in deepening integration. This study focuses specifically on the environment policy sector,...

Policy Paper 30: Economic Integration and Environment in Southeast Asia

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Paper 30: Economic Integration and Environment in Southeast Asia

Policy Paper 46: Fuel and Famine: Rural Energy Crisis in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

The North Korean economic decline in the 1990s reveals a complex food and energy shortage problem. Inadequate energy supplies are an immediate cause of this agricultural collapse, and the energy shortage must be resolved in order to reach a sustainable recovery.

Hayes, Von Hippel and Williams explore the origins and impacts of the rural energy shortage, and suggest that international cooperation is necessary to resolve North Korea’s energy and food crises.

Policy Paper 36: Energy and Security in Northeast Asia: Supply and Demand, Conflict and

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

The economic crises in Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia, and Japan have focused attention on the region's economic problems as well as its well-documented success. One potential problem is satiating these economies' increasing demand for energy. This problem has been made even more pressing by deep devaluations that substantially raised imported energy prices in local currency terms. IGCC Policy Papers 35-37, Energy and Security in Northeast Asia, seek to examine the international implications of the longer-term energy situation in Northeast Asia, including the decisions that government policymakers are likely to make to address their economies' pressing energy needs. Policy Paper 35, Fueling Security, debates the fundamental issue of whether rising energy demand generates new security dilemmas or whether efficient energy markets mitigate potential security risks arising from increased competition for energy resources. Kent Calder argues that energy rivalry might deepen...

Policy Paper 34: The Management of Intermational Migration: Short-term Dislocations Versus Long-term Benefits

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

This paper examines a specific, generally south to north migratory flow—that of economic migrants from poor nations to advanced market economy countries. Most economic analyses agree that economic migration—as distinct from refugee flows—generates economic benefits. However, the level of benefits generated by these flows vary depending upon the types of migrants accepted (McCarthy and Vernez 1997). Moreover, these economic benefits are unevenly distributed among the host population in the short-term (National Research Council 1997). This uneven distribution creates a public backlash and political demands for restricting migration. To maintain openness toward migration, policies should tailor the level of migration to conditions in the local communities where migrants settle and redistribute the short-term costs associated with these migratory flows.

Policy Paper 55: U.S. Immigration Policy: Unilateral and Cooperative Responses to Undocumented Migration

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

This paper addresses the problem of undocumented immigration to the United States from Mexico, and current and proposed policies designed to control these undocumented flows. I summarize current U.S. policy toward undocumented Mexican immigration, which has been an expensive failure. I then take up three competing policy proposals: one pending in the U.S. Senate (S.1814 and S.1815) to expand the H-2A guest-worker program; one to construct a strict enforcement regime; and one based on linking U.S.–Mexican free trade to a free flow of labor. For each alternative, I predict likely outcomes and distributional consequences for seven types of actors (U.S. workers, U.S. consumers, U.S. employers, other U.S. citizens, undocumented immigrants, legal immigrants, and other Mexicans). I conclude that a binational approach to immigration control (a North American Common Market) is the most promising option, and I discuss its political feasibility.

Policy Paper 45: Korean Peninsula Security and the U.S.-Japan Defense Guidelines

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Two leading Asia scholars, Prof. Ahn Byung-joon and Dr. Konstantin Sarkisov, led discussions about U.S.–Japan relations, the U.S.–Japan Defense Guidelines Review, and the current situation on the Korean Peninsula at the seventh NEACD plenary in Tokyo. These contributions were subsequently revised to reflect the tumultuous events of the first half of 1998: the inauguration of South Korean President Kim Dae Jung and his “sunshine policy” towards North Korea; stalemate in the Four Party Talks on the Korean peninsula; a second Clinton-Jiang summit; and the deepening of the economic crisis in Asia.

Presented here are Prof. Ahn Byung-joon’s (Yonsei University, Seoul) reflections upon the revision of the U.S.–Japan Defense Guidelines and their potential impact upon regional security. Dr. Konstantin Sarkisov (Institute of Oriental Studies in the Russian Academy of Sciences and visiting professor, Hosei University, Tokyo, Japan) addresses the challenge of putting the continuing...

Policy Paper 41: Institutional Implications of WTO Accession for China

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

For fifty years, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) system has fostered the development of liberal multilateralism. Originally a short, fifty-page set of rules that governed trade between just twenty-three Contracting Parties, and applying only provisionally because of the failure of several countries to ratify it, the GATT system has evolved into one of the world's most well-developed international organizations. The GATT’s organizational successor, the World Trade Organization (WTO), boasts over 130 members that have ratified its founding charter and thousands of pages of substantive rules. Perhaps most significantly, the Uruguay Round negotiations bestowed upon the GATT/WTO system revised rules of government, which some have predicted will vastly improve the regime's institutional strength. With new dispute settlement rules, clarified rules of procedure for decision-making by the Members, and the formal establishment of a genuine secretariat, many claim...

Policy Paper 43: Banking on Peace: Lessons from the MIddle East Development Bank

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

One aftermath of the Madrid Peace Conference was establishment of a multilateral track (the “multilaterals”) by the United States designed to address issues of region-wide concern, such as arms control and regional security, economic development, water, the environment, and refugees. For the first time since Israel’s creation, Israel and Arab states gathered together specifically to address regional issues of mutual concern, marking a major turning point in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Despite problems, the multilaterals produced joint projects and unprecedented regional economic conferences, and the first regional Arab-Israeli institutions.

Among the most significant of these institutions is the Bank for Economic Cooperation and Development in the Middle East and North Africa, or the MENABANK. The MENABANK was primarily created to serve the political objectives of the peace process, creating cooperative outlets for Arab-Israeli interaction that would...

Policy Paper 47: The Changing Order in Northeast Asia and the Prospects for U.S.-Japan-CHina-Korea Relations

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

In the decades ahead, Northeast Asia will be the critical region on the global stage. Interaction among and between Northeast Asian societies is rapidly advancing, both at official and non-official levels. Among the latter, one of the most promising developments is the emergence of Natural Economic Territories (NETs), economic entities that cross political boundaries, taking advantage of the complementarity of neighboring regions, combining resources, manpower, capital, technology and managerial skills. With political barriers being progressively lowered, this trend is certain to be expanded in the years ahead.

It is clear that no analysis of the inter-state relations within Northeast Asia can be sound without a careful examination of the domestic conditions—current and future—governing each nation. The paper weaves domestic and foreign policies together, indicating their reciprocal effect.

Policy Paper 42: Environmental Diplomacy in the Jordan Basin

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

This paper reviews the achievements of Middle East environmental diplomacy under the multilateral track and lays out a feasible program to build on these achievements. It argues that negotiations should be informed by three lessons from the history of international water diplomacy. These are:

1) unequal partners may unequally share the costs and benefits of cooperation;

2) third-party mediation is most successful if accompanied by “carrot and stick” policies; and

3) cooperation should proceed as a series of modest steps, rather than as a grand regional plan.

The paper analyzes three issues in urgent need of multicountry cooperation. These are:

1) food for water trades to enhance food and water security in the region;

2) a transition to integrated pest management to halt the pollution of groundwater from agricultural runoff; and

3) the treatment and reuse of urban wastewater for health and water conservation.

In addition, the countries...

Policy Paper 33: Maritime Shipping in Northeast Asia: Law of the Seas, Sea Lanes, and Security

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Paper 33: Maritime Shipping in Northeast Asia: Law of the Seas, Sea Lanes, and Security

Policy Paper 44: Mapping the Hinterland: Land Rights, Timber, and Territorial Politics in Mozambique

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Paper 44: Mapping the Hinterland: Land Rights, Timber, and Territorial Politics in Mozambique

Policy Paper 49: The Military Balance in the Middle East: An Executive Summary

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

This policy paper is part of the “Arms Control and Security Improvement in the Middle East” workshop series, sponsored by the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC) of the University of California. The project is a Track II (unofficial) activity which indirectly supports the Middle East peace process. It is also part of an ongoing effort by the IGCC to study the causes and dynamics of international conflict and help devise options for managing and resolving it through international cooperation.

The third meeting concentrated on regional security trends in military balances, weapons effects and doctrines, and the role of the military in improving regional security. Dr. Anthony Cordesman presented Middle East military balances and arms transfer trends for the last decade, based on his analysis of the military training, professionalism, and equipment holdings of various Middle East states. This paper summarizes his findings.

Policy Paper 37: Energy and Security in Northeast Asia: Proposals for Nuclear Cooperation

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Gaining access to energy resources has long been a source of contention among established and rising powers. IGCC Policy Papers 35-37, Energy and Security in Northeast Asia, examine the significance of Northeast Asia's rising energy demands on regional and global energy and security politics.

Policy Paper 37 introduces prominent proposals for multilateral Northeast Asian nuclear energy cooperation advanced by Kaneko Kumao, Suzuki Atsuyuki and Jor- Shan Choi (an analysis by Suzuki Tatsujiro about lessons from the European experience (EURATOM) appeared in IGCC Policy Paper 24, Energy and Security in Northeast Asia). Cooperation on nuclear energy would have a direct impact on political and security relations among Northeast Asian states. Nuclear power is an attractive alternative for all the Northeast Asian states, especially Japan and South Korea, which have no energy resources of their own and have to import all their fuels. Nuclear energy is much cleaner than that extracted...

Policy Paper 39: Power and Prosperity: Linkages Between Security and Economics in U.S-Japanese Relations Since 1960

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

How do Japan and the United States fit into each other’s grand strategies? A grand strategy is one that relates means and ends, resources and objectives, economics and national security. The National Security Archive’s Project on U.S.–Japanese Relations Since 1960 is probing these issues through a major program of research and study into policymaking by both governments across a wide spectrum of diplomatic, security, and economic issues. This project has brought together scholars and officials (see Appendix) from both countries to discuss new studies, based on newly released official U.S. documents and interviews with former officials, that shed light on the policymaking and implementation processes in both governments.

This essay provides an interim report on the project, which is based on a series of four conferences. The first conference, held in March 1996 and co-hosted by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars at the Smithsonian Institution, focused...

Policy Paper 32: Emissions and Development in the United States: International Implications

Thu, 26 Sep 2002 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Paper 32: Emissions and Development in the United States: International Implications