Recent iir_cpl_acadwp items

Household Mobility and Mortgage Rate Lock

Mon, 4 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Rising interest rates can create "interest rate lock" for homeowners with fixed rate mortgages, who can hold onto their low rates as long as they stay in their homes but would have to take on new mortgages with higher rates if they moved. We show mobility rates fell in 2022-2023 for homeowners with mortgages, as market rates rose. There were no such declines for homeowners without mortgages or for renters, and the decline is not explained by changes in home values. Overall, our estimates imply that rising interest rates reduced mobility by 15% for households with mortgages.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278

Increasing Stimulus Payment Take-up in California: Results from a Phone and Email Campaign

Mon, 4 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

In Fall 2021, The People Lab (TPL) and the California Policy Lab (CPL) partnered with the California Department of Social Services (CDSS) and Code for America (CfA) to conduct and evaluate a state-wide outreach effort aimed at delivering stimulus payments to low-income Californians. The outreach campaign reached nearly 430,000 low-income households in California. These households were enrolled in either the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, or CalFresh) or the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF, or CalWORKs), and were identified as having at least one likely “non-filer” — someone who had not filed or been claimed on a state tax return in 2018 and/or 2019 and who was therefore likely to miss out on tax-based benefits payments. In a randomized evaluation, we tested the impact of informational outreach delivered via recorded voice message or email on the initiation and submission of returns among likely non-filers through the simplified filing tool created...

Association of Shelter-in-Place Hotels With Health Services Use Among People Experiencing Homelessness During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Thu, 1 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Key Points

Question: Was placement in a shelterin-place (SIP) hotel during the COVID-19 pandemic associated with health system utilization among people experiencing homelessness with a history of high use of acute health services?

Findings: In this cohort study of 686 high users of acute county services experiencing homelessness, those who received a SIP hotel placement had significantly fewer emergency department visits, hospital admissions, inpatient days, and psychiatric emergency department visits compared with matched controls without a placement.

Meaning: These findings suggest that provision of noncongregate shelter with supportive services in SIP hotels during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with reduced use of acute health services among people with prior high use.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278

Independent Contracting, Self-Employment, and Gig Work: Evidence from California Tax Data

Thu, 1 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0000

The authors use de-identified data from California personal income tax returns to measure the frequency and nature of independent contracting and self-employment in California. They identify this work by the presence of a Schedule C on the tax return and/or the receipt of a Form 1099 information return. The authors estimate that 14.4% of California workers aged 18 to 64 in tax year 2016 had some independent contracting or self-employment income and approximately half of this subgroup also had earnings from traditional W-2 jobs during the year. Only a small share (1.4%) of workers had earnings from online labor platforms (often called gig work). Workers with low earnings were significantly more likely to earn independent contracting or self-employment income and to rely primarily or exclusively on that income. The article explores the characteristics of workers engaging in independent contracting and self-employment and their distribution across family type, geography,...

Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program

Thu, 1 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0000

This paper studies the effect of a restorative justice intervention targeted at youth ages 13 to 17 facing felony charges of medium severity (e.g., burglary, assault). Eligible youths were randomly assigned to participate in the Make-it-Right (MIR) restorative justice program or a control group where they faced standard criminal prosecution. We estimate the effects of MIR on the likelihood that a youth will be rearrested in the four years following randomization. Assignment to MIR reduces the probability of a rearrest within six months by 19 percentage points, a 44 percent reduction relative to the control group. Moreover, the reduction in recidivism persists even four years after randomization. Thus, our estimates show that restorative justice conferencing can reduce recidivism among youth charged with relatively serious offenses and can be an effective alternative to traditional criminal justice practices.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of...

Analysis of Emergency Department Encounters Among High Users of Health Care and Social Service Systems Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Thu, 1 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Key Points

Question: Did emergency department (ED) use decrease among the top 5% of high users of health care and social services in San Francisco County during the COVID-19 pandemic?

Findings: In this cohort study of 8967 individuals, the rate of ED visits decreased by approximately 25% during the pandemic compared with nonpandemic years.

Meaning: Factors associated with decreased ED encounters and health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic among previously high users are not clear and warrant further investigation.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants M21PR3278.

Qualitative information in undergraduate admissions: A pilot study of letters of recommendation

Mon, 31 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000

A subset of undergraduate applicants to the University of California, Berkeley were invited to submit letters ofrecommendation as part of their applications. I use scraped text of the submitted letters, natural languageprocessing tools, and a within-subject experimental design wherein applications were read in parallel with andwithout their letters to understand the role that this qualitative information plays in admissions. I show thatletters written on behalf of underrepresented applicants were modestly distinctive. I also construct an index ofletter strength, measuring the predicted impact of the letter on the student’s application score. I show thatunderrepresented applicants tend to get weaker letters, but that readers pay less attention to letter strength forunderrepresented students. Overall, the inclusion of letters modestly improved application outcomes for theaverage underrepresented student.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California...

Changes in the Relationship Between Income and Life Expectancy Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic, California, 2015-2021

Mon, 31 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000

This study examines how the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic affected life expectancy in California and the relationship between census tract income and life expectancy relative to prepandemic years. In this retrospective analysis of 1, 988, 606 deaths in California during 2015 to 2021, life expectancy declined from 81.40 years in 2019 to 79.20 years in 2020 and 78.37 years in 2021. Life expectancy differences between the census tracts in the highest and lowest income percentiles increased from 11.52 years in 2019 to 14.67 years in 2020 and 15.51 years in 2021. This ecological study of deaths in the state of California demonstrated that life expectancy declines in 2020 increased in 2021 and that the life expectancy gap by income level increased during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic relative to the prepandemic period.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774...

Racial equity in eligibility for a clean slate under automatic criminal record relief laws

Mon, 31 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000

States have begun to pass legislation to provide automatic relief for eligible criminal records, potentially reducing the lifelong collateral consequences of criminal justice involvement. Yet numerous historical examples suggest that racially neutral policies can have profoundly disparate effects across racial groups. In the case of criminal record relief, racial equity in eligibility for a clean slate has not yet been examined. We find that in California, one in five people with convictions met criteria for full conviction relief under the state's automatic relief laws. Yet the share of Black Americans eligible for relief was lower than White Americans, reproducing racial disparities in criminal records. We identify two policy amendments that would reduce the share of Black men in California with convictions on their criminal records from 22% to 9%, thereby narrowing the difference compared to White men from 15 to seven percentage points. Put another way, an additional one...

Understanding the 100 highest users of health and social services in San Francisco

Wed, 1 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0000

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants M21PR3278.

Assessment of a Hotel-Based COVID-19 Isolation and Quarantine Strategy for Persons Experiencing Homelessness

Wed, 1 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Importance Several jurisdictions in the United States have secured hotels to temporarily house people experiencing homelessness who require isolation or quarantine for confirmed or suspected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). To our knowledge, little is known about how these programs serve this vulnerable population outside the hospital setting.

Objective To assess the safety of a hotel-based isolation and quarantine (I/Q) care system and its association with inpatient hospital capacity.

Design, Setting, and Participants This retrospective cohort study of a hotel-based I/Q care system for homeless and unstably housed individuals in San Francisco, California, was conducted from March 19 to May 31, 2020. Individuals unable to safely isolate or quarantine at home with mild to moderate COVID-19, persons under investigation, or close contacts were referred from hospitals, outpatient...

The ‘Gig Economy’ and Independent Contracting: Evidence from California Tax Data

Wed, 1 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Most labor market policy in the United States is designed for long-term employment relationships. Self-employed workers, including independent contractors and on-demand platform (“gig”) workers, are excluded from labor market protections such as wage and hour laws, occupational safety and health regulations, unemployment insurance, and employer-provided health insurance and retirement programs. They are also poorly covered by our tax collection system, which relies heavily on employer reporting of worker earnings for enforcement. Growth in independent contracting could undermine labor market arrangements, with implications for regulation, tax collection, and worker wellbeing.

This paper uses California tax data to provide an alternative lens on many of the outstanding empirical questions about independent contracting. We use de-identified, individual-level data from California personal income tax returns for tax years 2012 through 2017 to measure the prevalence and nature...

Demystifying College Costs: How Nudges Can and Can’t Help

Wed, 1 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract: As US college costs continue to rise, governments and institutions have quadrupled financial aid. Yet, the administrative process of receiving financial aid remains complex, raising costs for families and deterring students from enrolling. In two large-scale field experiments (N= 265,570), we test the impact of nudging high-school seniors in California to register for State financial aid. We find that simplifying communication and affirming belonging each significantly increase registrations, by 9% and 11% respectively. Yet, these nudges do not impact the final step of the financial aid process -- college enrollment. In contrast, a simplified letter that affirms belonging while also making comparable cost calculations more salient significantly impacts college choice, increasing enrollment in the lowest-cost option by 10.4%. Our findings suggest that different nudges are likely to address different types of administrative burdens, and their combination may be the...

Capacity and flexibility in community college CTE programs: program offerings and student success

Mon, 1 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000

This article asks whether small changes to community college courses and programs can help improve student outcomes. We use administrative data from the California Community College system, including millions of student records and detailed course-level information for most career-technical education programs in the state. We construct a summary measure of each program’s flexibility, incorporating many components of the availability and scheduling of its courses. We show considerable variation in this flexibility measure across programs and over time. An increase in a program’s flexibility is associated with increases in enrollment and completions, but not with changes in its completion rate.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grant MRP-19-600774.

Can Nudges Increase Take-up of the EITC?: Evidence from Multiple Field Experiments

Mon, 1 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000

The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) distributes more than $60 billion to over 20 million low-income families annually. Nevertheless, an estimated one-fifth of eligible households do not claim it. We ran six pre-registered, large-scale field experiments to test whether “nudges” could increase EITC take-up (N=1million). Despite varying the content, design, messenger, and mode of our messages, we find no evidence that they affected households’ likelihood of filing a tax return or claiming the credit. We conclude that even the most behaviorally informed low-touch outreach efforts cannot overcome the barriers faced by low-income households who do not file returns.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grant MRP-19-600774.

A Leg Up on College The Scale and Distribution of Community College Participation Among California High School Students

Fri, 26 Feb 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Research shows that dual enrollment—a practice in which high school students take college courses while they are still in high school—has multiple benefits for student success in both systems. To capitalize on those benefits, California and other states have moved in recent years to increase high school students’ access to college courses.

In California, the historical lack of an integrated state data system that connects information from K-12 to higher education has hampered efforts to understand the extent of dual enrollment here. The prevailing narrative has been that California lags other states and the nation in dual enrollment, which is offered in 89% of U.S. high schools, with 11% of all high school students participating nationally.

This brief, released in partnership with Wheelhouse, the Center for Community College Leadership and Research,...

A randomized trial of permanent supportive housing for chronically homeless persons with high use of publicly funded services

Fri, 26 Feb 2021 00:00:00 +0000

We found that the Permanent Supportive Housing program intervention was able to house 86 percent of chronically homeless adults randomized to the treatment group based on their high use of multiple systems who were randomized to the treatment group. On average, it took 2.5 months for participants randomized to housing to become housed and 70 percent moved at least once, demonstrating that PSH can be successful with high‐risk participants but requires time and flexibility.

By using a randomized controlled trial design, we found that those randomized to housing (versus usual care) had lower use of psychiatric emergency departments and shelters, but did not have large reductions in service use described in previous uncontrolled studies.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grant MRP-19-600774.

Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis

Tue, 23 Feb 2021 00:00:00 +0000

We use traditional and non-traditional data to measure the collapse and partial recovery of the U.S. labor market from March to early July, contrast this downturn to previous recessions, and provide preliminary evidence on the effects of the policy response. For hourly workers at both small and large businesses, nearly all of the decline in employment occurred between March 14 and 28. It was driven by low-wage services, particularly the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors. A large share of the job losses in small businesses reflected firms that closed entirely, though many subsequently reopened. Firms that were already unhealthy were more likely to close and less likely to reopen, and disadvantaged workers were more likely to be laid off and less likely to return. Most laid off workers expected to be recalled, and this was predictive of rehiring. Shelter-in-place orders drove only a small share of job losses. Last, states that received more small business loans from...