http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification 720 https://escholarship.org/uc/irle_cwed/rss Recent eScholarship items from Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics Tue, 23 Jun 2026 09:20:56 +0000 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/93q6d4rc <p>Massachusetts Uber/Lyft Ballot Proposition Would Create Subminimum Wage: Drivers Could Earn as Little as $4.82 an HourBY&nbsp;<a href="https://irle.berkeley.edu/people/ken-jacobs/">KEN JACOBS</a>&nbsp;AND&nbsp;<a href="https://irle.berkeley.edu/people/michael-reich/">MICHAEL REICH</a>&nbsp;ON&nbsp;SEPTEMBER 29, 2021<a href="https://irle.berkeley.edu/topic/cwed/">CENTER ON WAGE AND EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://irle.berkeley.edu/topic/gig-economy/">GIG ECONOMY</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://irle.berkeley.edu/topic/low-wage-work/">LOW-WAGE WORK</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://irle.berkeley.edu/topic/public-policy/">PUBLIC POLICY</a>DOWNLOAD:</p><p><a href="https://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2021/09/MA-Uber-Lyft-Ballot-Proposition-Would-Create-Subminimum-Wage.pdf">Report</a>&nbsp;</p><p>Uber and Lyft, along with a group of delivery network companies, have filed a ballot proposition in Massachusetts to create a separate set of labor standards for their drivers. The proposition,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/93q6d4rc Thu, 9 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Jacobs, Ken Reich, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3xb4152j <p>New York City’s minimum driver pay standard, which became effective in February 2019, is intended to protect app-dispatch drivers from being paid less than the equivalent of the city’s $15 minimum wage, plus some paid time off. The standard provides a minimum pay for the time spent on a trip and a reimbursement for driving expenses. It is designed to compensate drivers for all their working hours and to account fully for drivers’ expenses during all of their working time.</p><p>We present here our preliminary research findings concerning the effects of this minimum driver pay standard. We examine the policy’s effects on driver pay and hours, passenger fares and company commissions, driver utilization rates, trip length, passenger demand, and passenger waiting time. We also investigate how the effects vary between peak and off-peak demand periods.</p> https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3xb4152j Thu, 9 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Koustas, Dmitri Parrott, James A Reich, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3m1028h9 The Effects of Proposition 22 on Driver Earnings: Response to a Lyft-Funded Report by Dr. Christopher Thornberg https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3m1028h9 Thu, 9 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Jacobs, Ken Reich, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1fw4q65g We examine the pay and hours of drivers working for transportation network companies (TNCs) in Seattle and propose a minimum driver compensation standard. Current gross driver hourly pay is approximately $21.53. After expenses of $11.80, a driver nets $9.73 an hour, much less than the minimum wage. A third of all of drivers work more than 32 hours per week and provide 55 percent of all trips. More than four-fifths of full-time drivers purchased their vehicle primarily or partly to provide TNC services. Nearly three-fourths rely on TNC driving as their sole source of income. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1fw4q65g Thu, 9 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Parrott, James A https://escholarship.org/uc/item/19f3z2sp California Legislature Assembly Committee on Accountability and Administrative Review https://escholarship.org/uc/item/19f3z2sp Thu, 9 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Allegretto, Sylvia A https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xz8g59x <p>We present here an analysis of the pay and employment effects of the scheduled minimum wage increases to $15 by 2023 in California as a whole and in Fresno County, one of the poorest areas in the state.</p><p>Critics of minimum wage increases often cite factors that will reduce employment, such as automation or reduced sales, as firms raise prices to recoup their increased costs. Advocates often argue that better-paid workers are less likely to quit and will be more productive, and that a minimum wage increase positively affects jobs and economic output as workers can increase their consumer spending. Here we take into account all of these often competing factors to assess the net effects of the policy.</p><p>Our analysis applies a new structural labor market model that we created specifically to analyze the effects of a $15 minimum wage. We take into account how workers, businesses, and consumers are affected and respond to such a policy and we integrate these responses in... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xz8g59x Thu, 9 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Allegretto, Sylvia Montialoux, Claire https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0ws770tx Assembly Labor and Employment Committee hearing for AB 1439 on April 18, 2012“Indexing California’s Minimum Wage” https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0ws770tx Thu, 9 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Allegretto, Sylvia A https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9zh383nr <p>The economy needs jobs, jobs, jobs and more jobs—this is not news to the 25 million unemployed and underemployed workers who continue to bear the hardships of the Great Recession. Workers have grown weary and families once bending are now breaking under the strain. The severe crisis of jobs in the United States and, particularly, in California seems to be lost as austerity dominates the policy dialogue in Washington, DC. In California, another round of cuts and anti-stimulus measures are underway and they will move the state further away from recovery. The downturn has hit the state especially hard and given its size and importance in the U.S. economy it is hard to imagine a robust recovery without the Golden State.</p><p>The onset of what was to become the Great Recession started in December 2007. Job losses were at first mild but then fell off a cliff the latter half of 2008 coinciding with the bursting of the housing bubble and the resultant implosion of many financial institutions.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9zh383nr Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Allegretto, Sylvia A https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9t42p25t <p>In this technical report, we document a methodology developed by the UC Berkeley Labor Center to estimate the number of workers impacted by proposed local minimum wage laws, as well as the expected increase in wages. This methodology is similar to that used by researchers to generate impact estimates for national and state minimum wage proposals, but differs in several respects because of significant data limitations for city- or county-based analyses.</p><p>In Section A, we describe the data source, sample definition, and wage variable creation and cleaning. In Section B, we then describe the process for estimating the number of workers affected and the expected increase in wages.</p> https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9t42p25t Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Welsh-Loveman, Jeremy Perry, Ian Bernhardt, Annette https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9j3565x5 <p>We examine the effects of minimum wage policies in six large cities with high citywide minimum wages: Chicago, the District of Columbia, Oakland, San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle. At the end of 2016, the last period of our data availability, citywide minimum wages exceeded $10 in all of these cities and had reached $13 in two—San Francisco and Seattle.</p><p>Recent research on minimum wages up to $10 has generally not found employment effects. Ours is the first comprehensive look at effects of minimum wages above $10.</p> https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9j3565x5 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Allegretto, Sylvia A Godoey, Anna Nadler, Carl Reich, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9fc8q8jz <p>The Los Angeles City Council is considering a citywide minimum wage increase to $13.25 by 2017 and $15.25 by 2019, followed by annual increases indexed to inflation. In this prospective study, we assess the economic impact of the proposal on workers, businesses and the city’s economy, and analyze a range of policy design options.</p><p>Our below findings are based on a mid-range scenario for future wage and inflation growth in Los Angeles. If actual economic growth turns out to be stronger or weaker than in this scenario, our assessment would change accordingly.</p> https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9fc8q8jz Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Jacobs, Ken Bernhardt, Annette Perry, Ian https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8w70c6cx Testimony SB 935, Sacramento, California https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8w70c6cx Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Allegretto, Sylvia A. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8sr7p7r6 The Ensuring Opportunity Campaign to Cut Poverty in Contra Costa has introduced a plan to establish a $15 per hour minimum wage in Contra Costa County, California, by 2020. The proposal would phase in the minimum wage increase over five steps. This study examines the effects of the proposed minimum wage increase on Contra Costa workers and businesses (assuming that all of the cities in the county, as well as the county itself, enact the proposed law). Drawing on a variety of government data sources,&nbsp;we estimate that the proposed minimum wage increase would provide significant gains in income to Contra Costa’s low-wage workers and their families. Most businesses would be able to absorb the increased costs, and consumers would see a moderate increase in restaurant prices spread over five years. The proposal’s impact on overall employment is therefore not likely to be significant. However, since any prospective impact study has a level of inherent uncertainty, the actual effects... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8sr7p7r6 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Jacobs, Ken Bernhardt, Anette Perry, Ian Reich, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8q88q336 <p>Residents of San Francisco, California will soon be voting whether or not to adopt a new citywide minimum wage policy. The proposal under consideration would establish a minimum wage of $15 an hour for businesses operating in the city by 2018. The minimum wage would be raised to $12.25 an hour on May 1, 2015; to $13 on July 1, 2016; to $14 on July 1, 2017; and to $15 on July 1, 2018 (see Table 1). It would then be indexed to inflation in subsequent years. As is already the case, the proposed law would cover everyone who works in San Francisco (except state and federal government employees and the self-employed).</p><p>In this report, we first estimate the number of workers that would be affected by the law and describe their demographic and job characteristics. We next estimate the resulting increase in wages and analyze their likely impacts on business costs, prices and employment, drawing in part on previous research. We then compare the magnitude of the proposed increase... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8q88q336 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Jacobs, Ken Bernhardt, Annette Perry, Ian https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8m46g9zk Comparison of two Seattle TNC driver studies https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8m46g9zk Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Parrott, James A. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/81g6h3s4 <p>The Lift Up Oakland Coalition, an alliance of community, labor, small business and faith organizations, has placed an initiative on the Oakland November 2014 ballot that would establish a minimum wage of $12.25 for businesses in the city starting March 1, 2015. This study examines the effects of a $12.25 minimum wage on Oakland workers and businesses.</p><p>Drawing on a variety of government data sources, we estimate that more than a quarter of the Oakland workforce would benefit from the proposed policy, with the average worker earning an additional $2,700 a year. Our analysis of the existing economic research literature suggests that businesses will adjust to modest increases in operating costs through reduced employee turnover costs, improved work performance, and a small, one-time increase in restaurant prices.</p> https://escholarship.org/uc/item/81g6h3s4 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Jacobs, Ken Bernhardt, Annette Perry, Ian Welsh-Loveman, Jeremy https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6pc2m3cj <p>In May 2010, a record 46 percent of the unemployed were counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as long-term unemployed — defined as durations of six months or more. Those who were unemployed for more than a year, whom I shall call the very-long-term unemployed, numbered 23 percent of all the unemployed. These are unprecedented figures. We know that long-term unemployment and very long-term unemployment generate serious and long-lasting harm to millions of individuals and to the economy. The scarring effects upon the economic, mental and physical health of long-term unemployed workers and their families are well-documented (von Wachter 2010). We also know that many of the very long-term unemployed eventually leave the labor force permanently, and some of those end up on the disability rolls. Very-long-term unemployment consequently generates adverse effects upon the Treasury and upon the capacity of the economy to grow in the long-run.</p><p>In the past two years the proportion... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6pc2m3cj Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/63p2387p <p>Today, there are a number of efforts to increase health insurance coverage in the state of California. Initiatives include “pay or pay” policies that would increase work-based coverage, and “single payer” approaches that would entail a complete overhaul of the way health care in financed. Regardless of the specific vehicle of insuring the uninsured, a large increase in coverage has important benefits. The primary benefit is, of course, the increase in coverage itself, as the uninsured receive better care and are insured against large out-of-pocket expenditures. However, there are also other economic impacts which have important labor market implications. In this research brief, I provide estimates for two sources of productivity gains from an increase in coverage: reduction in “job lock” and increased labor-force participation due to improved health. Although I do not explicitly model this, such productivity gains can partly “pay for” any added costs that are incurred in extending... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/63p2387p Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Dube, Arindrajit https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zj7k9bs <p>This brief on Seattle’s minimum wage experience represents the first in a series that CWED will be issuing on the effects of the current wave of minimum wage policies—those that range from $12 to $15. Upcoming CWED reports will present similar studies of Chicago, Oakland, San Francisco, San Jose and New York City, among others. The timing of these reports will depend in part upon when quality data become available. We focus here on Seattle because it was one of the early movers.</p><p>Seattle implemented the first phase of its minimum wage law on April 1, 2015, raising minimum wages from the statewide $9.47 to $10 or $11, depending upon business size, presence of tipped workers and employer provision of health insurance. The second phase began on January 1, 2016, further raising the minimum to four different levels, ranging from $10.50 to $13, again depending upon employer size, presence of tipped workers and provision of health insurance. The tip credit provision was introduced... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zj7k9bs Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Allegretto, Sylvia A Godoey, Anna https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5q0593k6 <p>In this technical report we document a methodology developed by the UC Berkeley Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics to estimate the number of workers affected by proposed local minimum wage laws, as well as the expected increase in wages. This methodology is similar to that used by researchers to generate impact estimates for national and state minimum wage proposals, but differs in several respects because of significant data limitations for city- or county-based analyses.</p><p>In Section A we describe the data source, sample definition, and wage variable creation and cleaning. In Section B we describe the process for estimating the number of workers affected and the expected increase in wages.</p> https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5q0593k6 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Perry, Ian Thomason, Sarah Bernhardt, Annette https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5gz267s9 The City of San Diego is considering a proposal to establish a citywide minimum wage. The proposed minimum wage would phase in over three years as follows: $9.75 on January 1, 2015; $10.50 on January 1, 2016; and $11.50 on January 1, 2017. Beginning in 2019, the city’s minimum wage would be adjusted annually to keep up with increases in the cost of living. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5gz267s9 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Jacobs, Ken Bernhardt, Annette Perry, Ian https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5d2877hj <p>We present here, at the request of the City of San Jose, an analysis of the impact of minimum wage increases for both San Jose and all of Santa Clara County. Both scenarios begin on January 1, 2017 and increase to $15 by January 1, 2019.</p><p>Critics of minimum wage increases often cite factors that will reduce employment, such as automation or reduced sales, as firms raise prices to recoup their increased costs. Advocates often argue that better-paid workers are less likely to quit and will be more productive, and that a minimum wage increase positively affects jobs and economic output as workers can increase their consumer spending. Here we take into account all of these often competing factors to assess the net effects of the policy.</p><p>Our analysis applies a new structural labor market model that we created specifically to analyze the effects of a $15 minimum wage. We take into account how workers, businesses, and consumers are affected and respond to such a policy... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5d2877hj Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Montialoux, Claire Allegretto, Sylvia Jacobs, Ken Bernhardt, Annette Thomason, Sarah https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5cz4n3mt <p>The Mayor of Los Angeles has requested that UC Berkeley’s Institute for Research on Labor and Employment conduct an impact study of his proposed minimum wage law for the city of Los Angeles. The proposal under consideration would establish a minimum wage of $13.25 an hour for businesses operating in the city by 2017. The minimum wage would be raised to $10.25 an hour in 2015; to $11.75 in 2016; and to $13.25 in 2017 (see Table 1). It would then be indexed to inflation in subsequent years. The proposed law would cover everyone who works in Los Angeles (except state and federal governmentemployees and the self-employed).</p><p>In this report, we first estimate the number of workers that would be affected by the law and describe their demographic and job characteristics. We next estimate the resulting increase in wages and analyze their likely impacts on business costs, prices and employment, drawing in part on previous research. We then compare the magnitude of the proposed increase... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5cz4n3mt Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Jacobs, Ken Bernhardt, Annette Perry, Ian https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4th435ht <p>In September of 2013, California Governor Jerry Brown signed Assembly Bill 10 into law. AB10 increases California’s minimum wage—which has stood at $8 per hour since 2008—to $9 on July 1, 2014, and to $10 on January 1, 2016. Some policymakers regard the modest increase provided by AB10 and the absence of annual adjustments for price increases as insufficient for the wellbeing of the Golden State’s lowest-paid workers. Indeed, for the first time in the state’s history a new minimum wage proposal—Senate Bill 935 sponsored by Senator Mark Leno—has been introduced in the legislature before the implementation of the already-legislated minimum wage increase (AB10). Senator Leno’s bill would increase California’s wage floor in several steps to reach $13 in January 2017, and annual cost of living adjustments would begin in 2018.</p><p>California is not alone in implementing or considering minimum wage increases this year. Thus far in 2014 thirty eight states have considered minimum... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4th435ht Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Allegretto, Sylvia Reich, Michael West, Rachel https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4qh9v3g4 <p>The COVID-19 crisis that hit the world and the United States has resulted in profound changes to our way of life. While this paper focuses on workers and economic effects, we note that the crisis is foremost one of a pandemic. The economic situation is a byproduct. There have been significant differences in countries’ policy responses to the pandemic, which in turn have led to important disparate economic outcomes. It is clear the U.S. Federal government’s abdication of responsibility in responding to the crisis has left far too many in peril, both economically and healthwise. The absence of a coherent national strategy has exposed and exacerbated long-standing racial and economic inequalities—again, both economically and healthwise. Fits and starts of economic activity continue to have feedback loops with the evolution of the virus. Public policy and investment will largely determine our rates of sickness, death and economic pain.</p><p>It also warrants early emphasis that... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4qh9v3g4 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Allegretto, Sylvia A. Liedtke, Bryce https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4h9850c1 <p>We estimate a calibrated labor market model that we created specifically to analyze the effects of a $15 minimum wage. We take into account how workers, businesses, and consumers are affected and respond to such a policy and we integrate their responses in a unified manner. In doing so, we draw upon modern economic analyses of labor and product markets. As we explain in the report, the main effects of minimum wages are made up of substitution, scale, and income effects.&nbsp;Our estimates compare employment numbers if policy were adopted to employment numbers if the policy had not been adopted. Other factors that may affect employment by 2024 are therefore outside the scope of our analysis.</p><p>Our analysis incorporates recent laws that raised state minimum wages, such as in New York State and California. However, we ignore laws that raise minimum wages at the city level. We do so to simplify the presentation. We pay special attention to Mississippi because it is one of the... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4h9850c1 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Allegretto, Sylvia A. Montialoux, Claire https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4c16v6zf <p>In April 2010, a record 45.9 percent of the unemployed were counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as long-term unemployed—defined as durations of six months or more. Those who were unemployed for more than a year, whom I shall call the very-long-term unemployed, numbered 23 percent of all the unemployed. We know that long-term unemployment and verylong-term unemployment generate serious and long-lasting harm to millions of individuals and to the economy. The scarring effects upon the economic, mental and physical health of longterm unemployed workers and their families are well-documented (von Wachter 2010). We also know that many of the very long-term unemployed eventually leave the labor force permanently, and some of those end up on the disability rolls. Very-long-term unemployment consequently generates adverse effects upon the Treasury and upon the capacity of the economy to grow in the long-run.</p><p>In the past two years the proportion of the unemployed who have... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4c16v6zf Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4bz434t2 <p>Initial results from the California Establishment Survey (CES) suggest that 64% of business respondents support a healthcare reform that requires that employers either provide health insurance, or pay a fee into a state fund to cover the uninsured. 59% of business respondents who currently do not offer health insurance to workers also support such a healthcare reform.</p><p>We find that 90% of firms that currently do not offer health benefits are in markets where their competitors do not provide such benefits either. This suggests that businesses most impacted by the proposed reform would be unlikely to face idiosyncratic increases in costs that would worsen their competitive position. We have also used the CES data to estimate the increases in costs that various businesses will face from the implementation of Senate Bill 2 (SB2). The median covered California business (i.e., with 20 or more employees) will see an annual increase in costs of $1,343 per worker it newly insures.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4bz434t2 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Dube, Arindrajit Reich, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/47r05658 <p>I provide here an independent economic analysis of the likely effects of Measure D in San Jose.</p><p><em>The benefits of Measure D</em>: 18.9 percent of San Jose’s workers will obtain pay increases as a result of Measure D. The increased spending power of minimum wage workers will stimulate the region’s economy by about $190 million.</p><p><em>The costs of Measure D</em>: Rigorous and prestigious academic studies of minimum wage effects across local boundaries indicate that Measure D will not have any disemployment effects. This research has invalidated previous studies that claim to find disemployment effects.</p><p>Measure D will increase operating costs of the average business by less than 0.25 percent. These costs will be partly offset by&nbsp;<em>cost savings to employers</em>, such as more workers applying for jobs, lower employee turnover costs and higher worker productivity. Prices in low-wage industries such as restaurants will increase by less than 0.71 percent,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/47r05658 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/463970rh <p>In this technical report we document a methodology developed by the UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education to estimate the number of workers impacted by proposed local minimum wage laws, as well as the expected increase in wages. This methodology is similar to that used by researchers to generate impact estimates for national and state minimum wage proposals, but differs in several respects because of significant data limitations for city- or county-based analyses.</p><p>In Section A we describe the data source, sample definition, and wage variable creation and cleaning. In Section B we describe the process for estimating the number of workers affected and the expected increase in wages.</p> https://escholarship.org/uc/item/463970rh Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Perry, Ian Bernhardt, Annette https://escholarship.org/uc/item/428737v1 <p>Recently, there has been a great deal of debate and consternation over the compensation of public-sector employees across the U.S. It has been asserted that state and local government employees are overpaid compared to workers in the private sector. In California government workers have been vilified as scandals and anecdotes pass as confirming evidence of exorbitant pay. This research is especially important given the outrage over the pay of municipal officials in Bell, California. The outrage over what happened in Bell is reasonable and just. Many of the players immediately resigned and on September 21, 2010 eight city officials were arrested.1 Those arrested include the former city manager of Bell, Robert Rizzo, who was making nearly $800,000 a year. Rizzo was charged with 53 counts. It is alleged that Rizzo, without approval from the City Council, actually wrote the conditions of his own contract—the case keeps growing in terms of scope and involved officials. It is clear... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/428737v1 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Allegretto, Sylvia A Keefe, Jeffrey https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3xg5b3sz <p>Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York has proposed economy-wide minimum wages of $15 in New York City by 2019 and in the balance of the state by mid-2021. In this prospective study, we assess the impact of the proposal on workers, businesses, and consumers to estimate the net effect of the policy proposal on employment over the phase-in period.</p><p>Critics of minimum wage increases often cite factors that will reduce employment, such as automation or reduced sales, as firms raise prices to recoup their increased costs. Advocates often argue that better-paid workers are less likely to quit and will be more productive, and that a minimum wage increase positively affects jobs and economic output as workers can increase their consumer spending. Here we take into account all of these often competing factors to assess the net effects of the policy.</p><p>Our analysis applies a new structural labor market model that we created specifically to analyze the effects of a $15 minimum wage.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3xg5b3sz Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Allegretto, Sylvia A Jacobs, Ken Montialoux, Claire https://escholarship.org/uc/item/30q7p9h0 <p>It has been well over a decade since the economy tumbled into what is now dubbed the Great Recession—reflecting the historical severity and swiftness of the downturn. The recession officially lasted from December 2007 through June 2009. However, the economy underperformed for nearly a decade as the output gap—GDP coming in under potential—did not close until the end of 2017. After being in the grips of the worst recession since the Great Depression the economy is currently in a lengthy expansion with record job growth, stock market performance, and unemployment rates. But, troubling challenges remain such as weak wage growth, depressed employment rates, high rates of poverty, and increased inequality.</p><p>There has been a lot of media attention around advances in automation and how robots are leading to widespread joblessness as the demand for workers shrinks. We find that both of these claims are dubious, at least on a large scale. As this brief will show, job growth is... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/30q7p9h0 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Allegretto, Sylvia A https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1td5b9bs Likely Effects of a $15 Federal Minimum Wage by 2024 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1td5b9bs Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1fq2x26g <p>In December 2007 the economy was on the precipice of the Great Recession. Just how far in the rear view mirror is the deep downturn? It likely depends on your vantage point. Many families have yet to recover from foreclosed homes, lost jobs, and long bouts of unemployment. On Main Street, where most workers rely on their jobs and paychecks to make ends meet, many continue to struggle as wages have barely budged. On the other hand, since the recovery began in June 2009, Wall Street has been booming, corporate profits have rebounded, and the wealthy are doing well.</p><p>The good news is that the economy has generated a net gain in jobs for over five years. Even so, gains have been fairly modest on a month to month basis. In total, the U.S. economy lost 8.7 million jobs over the downturn—losing and then regaining that number of jobs took well over six years. Today there is a net positive of 5.1 million (or 3.7%) more jobs in the U.S. economy compared to December 2007—just prior... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1fq2x26g Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Allegretto, Sylvia A Belal, Saika https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1070w4vz <p>The economy fell off a cliff in 2008 as we experienced the most devastating downturn since the Great Depression. Unemployment hit double digits resulting in significant economic hardship and increasing demands on government safety nets and services to help those in need. At the same time, state revenues plummeted as workers lost their jobs and business activity contracted. As states struggled to balance their budgets in this weak economic climate, public officials in multiple states argued that the fiscal gaps were due to government workers and their unions.</p><p>The fallout from the political jostling around public workers has been that hundreds of bills related to public employees and unions were introduced in state legislatures—most of which sought to restrict public sector unions. At least twelve states have significantly restricted collective bargaining through new legislation in 2011 including: Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Arizona, Idaho, Michigan, New Hampshire, Oklahoma,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1070w4vz Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Allegretto, Sylvia A Jacobs, Ken Lucia, Laurel https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0vv904d3 <p>The employment consequences of increasing the minimum wage in the United States continue to be a major subject of debate, but how researchers choose to estimate the effects of raising the minimum wage can substantially affect the results of their work. In “Credible Research Designs for Minimum Wage Studies”, my coauthors and I examine one group of low-wage workers—teenagers—whose hourly wages are significantly raised by minimum wage increases.</p><p>A common objection to raising minimum wages is that doing so will reduce the employment opportunities of low-skilled workers such as teenagers. We show, however, that some studies find negative effects of the minimum wage on teen employment because they fail to control for other economic factors that independently reduced employment around the time of a minimum wage increase. After controlling for these factors, we demonstrate that the large, negative effect on teen employment disappears.</p> https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0vv904d3 Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Zipperer, Ben https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0bz5b17x <p>Recent news on the economy seems erratic and confusing. Is the economy improving, or is it still stuck in the “Great Recession” rut? Well, as any good economist would say, “it depends”—in this case on one’s vantage point. The good news is that the economy that officially came out of recession in June 2009 is growing again; the bad news is that only a few are benefiting from this growth. Our colleague Emmanuel Saez recently analyzed how the expanding economic pie in 2009 and 2010 was divvied up. He found that 93% of the economic gains went to the top 1% of Americans—which is not indicative of a broadbased recovery. It also affirms the continuation of long-term trends of increasing inequality. Today, far too many of California’s workers and their families are stuck in the harshest job market since the Great Depression. The economic scarring on families and communities is incalculable given the length and depth of the downturn. And, as the Dow flirts with 13,000, the Wall Street-Main... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0bz5b17x Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Allegretto, Sylvia A Reidenbach, Luke https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0510c5pc The Raise the Wage Sacramento Coalition has put forth a proposal to establish a $13.50 per hour minimum wage by 2019 in the city of Sacramento (see Table 1). The minimum wage would be raised to $11.50 on January 1, 2017; to $12.50 on January 1, 2018; and to $13.50 on January 1, 2019. In Section 1 of this report, we estimate the effects of the proposal on Sacramento workers and businesses, and place the proposal in context with other local minimum wage laws. In Section 2, we review the economic research literature on the effects of minimum wage increases on workers, employment, and business operations. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0510c5pc Tue, 9 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Reich, Michael Bernhardt, Annette Perry, Ian Jacobs, Ken