http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification 720 https://escholarship.org/uc/ucb_erg_oapdeposits/rss Recent eScholarship items from Energy and Resources Group Open Access Policy Deposits Sat, 12 Sep 2026 06:50:21 +0000 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/07x846v0 Abrupt snowmelt, triggered by rain-on-snow events or "snow-eater heat waves," can cause flooding, initiate or accelerate snow drought, and affect water availability. However, the characteristics (e.g., area, duration, and frequency), impacts, and trends of snow-eater heat waves have received little attention. To address this gap, we developed a method to identify snow-eater heat waves and estimate their melt potential using 20th Century Reanalysis version 3 air temperature data, the TempestExtremes algorithm, and an operational snowmelt model (SNOW-17) across 1850-2015. Melt season snow-eater heat waves typically last 3 to 5 days, with three to five events, doubling snowmelt rates. Seven of 11 spring superfloods are shown to coincide with snow-eater heat waves. Since the 1850s, snow-eater heat waves have increased in area and frequency, decreased in duration, and shifted earlier in the melt season. Incorporating snow-eater heat-wave impacts into SNOW-17 enhances extreme melt estimates,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/07x846v0 Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Rhoades, Alan M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3723-2422 North, Joshua Snowball https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7631-8021 Rudisill, William Hatchett, Benjamin J Risser, Mark https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1956-1783 Beltran-Peña, Areidy Heggli, Anne Hotaling, Scott Huning, Laurie S Joros, Andrew LaPlante, Matthew Mahesh, Ankur Marshall, Adrienne M McCrary, Rachel McEvoy, Daniel Rahimi, Stefan Raleigh, Mark S Randall, Calen Srivastava, Abhishekh Wehner, Michael https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8423-7870 Zhou, Yang https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2835-4081 Jones, Andrew D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1913-7870 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4mb9z2jj Correction to: Nature Communications; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50088-4, published online 14 July 2024 In the version of the article initially published, Jessica Granderson (Energy Technologies Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA) was not included in the author list and now appears in the HTML and PDF versions of the article. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4mb9z2jj Tue, 11 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Ding, Chao https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0373-0167 Ke, Jing Levine, Mark Granderson, Jessica https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4536-9560 Zhou, Nan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/90q6q1s0 Abstract Managing carbon stocks in the land, ocean, and atmosphere under changing climate requires a globally‐integrated view of carbon cycle processes at local and regional scales. The growing Earth Observation (EO) record is the backbone of this multi‐scale system, providing local information with discrete coverage from surface measurements and regional information at global scale from satellites. Carbon flux information, anchored by inverse estimates from spaceborne Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentrations, provides an important top‐down view of carbon emissions and sinks, but currently lacks global continuity at assessment and management scales (&lt;100&nbsp;km). Partial‐column data can help separate signals in the boundary layer from the overlying atmosphere, providing an opportunity to enhance surface sensitivity and bring flux resolution down from that of column‐integrated data (100–500&nbsp;km). Based on a workshop held in September 2024, the carbon cycle community envisions... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/90q6q1s0 Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Parazoo, N Carroll, D Abshire, JB Bar‐On, YM Birdsey, RA Bloom, AA Bowman, KW Braghiere, RK Bruhwiler, LM Byrne, B Chatterjee, A Crisp, D Duncanson, L Feldman, AF Fox, AM Frankenberg, C Gay, BA Hopkins, F https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6110-7675 Hoffman, FM Holmquist, JR Hutyra, LR Keller, M Koven, CD https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Laughner, JL Liu, J Lovenduski, NS Macbean, N McKinley, GA McNicol, G Menemenlis, D Michalak, AM Miller, CE Nesser, H Oda, T Ordway, EM https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7720-1754 Ott, LE Paustian, K Pierrat, ZA https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6726-2406 Poulter, B Reed, SC Schimel, DS Serbin, SP Saatchi, SS Suto, H Windham‐Myers, L Wunch, D https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7th4d133 Abstract Wildfire emission inventories exhibit large variability that complicates assessments of smoke impacts. Here we compare fuel consumed (in mass per burned area units) from multiple burn area‐based and energy‐based approaches for fires in the western US during 2020. Average fuel consumed can vary by up to factors of 2–16 between approaches across burn severity classes and fuel types. Fuel consumed estimates typically increase with burn severity, except for the energy‐based approaches for forest land cover, where it decreases for high burn severity. Also, in contrast to other approaches, energy‐based estimates decrease for tree cover greater than 40% regardless of burn severity class. This implies that corrections to the energy‐based approach are likely needed across burn severity categories to account for canopy and smoke shading. The methodological recommendations provided would likely result in greater consistency between wildfire emission estimates and highlight the need... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7th4d133 Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Saide, PE Wu, Y Arnold, M Thapa, LH Soja, A Gargulinski, E Li, F Wiedinmyer, C Emmons, LK Tang, W Westerling, AL Xu, Q Ordway, EM https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7720-1754 Queally, N Kueppers, L https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8134-3579 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/36z1x2w5 Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to grow, while natural carbon reservoirs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures, climate extremes, and disturbance. These changes are impacting humans, ecosystems, and natural resources worldwide. Tracking and mitigating GHG emissions require a pivot to operational monitoring of regional carbon flux and stock changes. The current GHG observing system is addressing needs at two distinct scales: 1) Local scale (&lt; 1&nbsp;km), related to anthropogenic point source emissions, and 2) global scales (&gt; 1000&nbsp;km), related to land and ocean carbon sinks. More focus on intermediate (10–1000&nbsp;km) scales is needed to more effectively monitor progress in reducing carbon emissions, enhancing removals, and maintaining sinks.Representatives from carbon cycle biomass and flux communities across United States government agencies and academic institutions met in September 2024 to discuss the rationale and scientific context... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/36z1x2w5 Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Parazoo, NC Carroll, D Abshire, JB Bar-On, YM Birdsey, RA Bloom, AA Bowman, KW Braghiere, RK Bruhwiler, LM Byrne, B Chatterjee, A Crisp, D Duncanson, L Feldman, AF Fox, AM Frankenberg, C Gay, BA Hopkins, F https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6110-7675 Hoffman, FM Holmquist, JR Hutyra, LR Keller, M Koven, CD https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Laughner, JL Liu, J Lovenduski, NS MacBean, N McKinley, GA McNicol, G Menemenlis, D Michalak, AM Miller, CE Nesser, H Oda, T Ordway, EM https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7720-1754 Ott, LE Paustian, K Pierrat, ZA https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6726-2406 Poulter, B Reed, SC Schimel, DS Serbin, SP Saatchi, SS Suto, H Windham-Myers, L Wunch, D https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kf8w5pc Data centers and large electricity loads are power hungry, raising concerns about higher electricity costs, increased emissions, and reliability risks. We show that co-locating solar+storage systems with underutilized natural gas plants offers a practical, near-term pathway for reliable, low-cost industrial power. Using eight years of hourly weather data, we co-optimize load and hybrid solar+storage+gas configurations at 68 existing plants near data center developments, meeting over 95% of demand with solar+storage. Across these sites, levelized costs range from $60-138/MWh, competitive with data centers’ recent contract prices for 24/7 clean power. Conflict analysis indicates minimal overlap between solar+storage backup needs and grid stress across most regions of the United States today, allowing gas units to provide dual roles: facilitating large load integration while supporting grid reliability. By optimizing existing infrastructure, this approach offers a scalable pathway... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kf8w5pc Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Chojkiewicz, Emilia Manocha, Aneesha Paliwal, Umed Callaway, Duncan Phadke, Amol https://escholarship.org/uc/item/40q9q5px Wildfire is among the fastest-growing economic risks of climate change, yet strategies to adapt cost-effectively remain under-explored. In the electric power sector, where ignitions have triggered some of the most destructive wildfires on record, utilities are investing heavily to mitigate risk. This study evaluates the cost, reliability, and risk reduction benefits of the largest utility wildfire mitigation program in the U.S. Using detailed weather and vegetation data for 25,000 miles of high-risk powerlines, we develop a prediction model to estimate ignition risk and compare outcomes across locations with similar risk that received different interventions. With this quasi experimental design, we find that a new strategy that dynamically adjusts protective device sensitivity during elevated wildfire conditions reduces risk more cost-effectively than conventional measures such as burying powerlines underground or trimming vegetation. By combining models of wildfire risk, costs,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/40q9q5px Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Warner, Cody Callaway, Duncan Fowlie, Meredith https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3pv9n5v9 <p>Hundreds of power plants have closed in the United States since 2010, including 130+ gigawatts of coal and 50+ gigawatts of natural gas. In this paper, we highlight the potential for regulation to distort this type of exit decision. Using generator-level data from 2010–2023, we show that regulated units have been 45% less likely to exit than unregulated units. For unregulated units, exit decisions are made based on wholesale electricity prices, ongoing capital costs, and other traditional economic factors. In contrast, owners of regulated units are largely insulated from these factors and, in some cases, have a strong incentive to continue operating capital-intensive equipment. Previous work documents how this regulatory distortion affects investment decisions. Our paper emphasizes that these same incentives affect exit decisions as well.</p> https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3pv9n5v9 Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Davis, Lucas Weber, Paige https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2ts9g6jj Data centers powering artificial intelligence are growing rapidly across the United States, raising concerns among policymakers and local communities about their environmental and social costs. These costs depend on where data centers locate, and strategic siting has been proposed as a way to limit them. Using a comprehensive facility-level dataset of past, operational, and announced U.S. data centers, we characterize how the environmental and community characteristics of data center locations evolve over 2010–2030. We quantify how much of the projected growth in environmental damages can be attributed to changes in data center locations versus growth in power requirements. Decomposing projected carbon emissions and monetized local air pollution damages into scale and location-driven composition effects, we find that over 2010–2025, composition changes reduced carbon and local air pollution damages by 4 and 12%, respectively. Over 2024–2030, scale accounts for approximately 97%... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2ts9g6jj Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Hernandez-Cortes, Danae Meng, Kyle Weber, Paige https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2162289d We study the benefits, abatement costs, and distributional outcomes of the EPA’s NOx Budget Program, a seasonal cap-and-trade market for NOx emissions. Using a new empirical approach, we recover source-specific marginal abatement cost curves and combine them with source-specific air pollution damages to quantify market outcomes. We find that abatement costs under the market are roughly one-sixth those of an abatement-equivalent non-market policy. Despite these large differences in aggregate costs, the market and the non-market policy yield similar air quality benefits, both in overall magnitude and across demographic groups. We show that these results reflect the weak correlation between source-specific marginal damages and abatement behavior. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2162289d Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Deschenes, Olivier Weber, Paige https://escholarship.org/uc/item/05z57695 Anthropogenic heat (AH) from buildings contributes to urban overheating, especially during heat waves, yet building retrofit studies usually evaluate energy savings without assessing impacts on AH. This study quantifies how common building retrofit measures affect both building energy use and AH emissions across the City of Los Angeles. Using a bottom-up urban building energy modeling framework coupled with high-resolution local weather from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Building Effect Parameterization (WRF-BEP), we evaluate eleven retrofit measures and two multi-measure retrofit packages. HVAC and LED lighting retrofits provide the largest city-wide annual site energy savings, while roof coating is most effective for reducing AH. A package optimized for energy savings reduces summer site energy use by about 32% (2.3 TWh), while a package incorporating AH-focused measures reduces the total AH by over 50% (137 PJ) with minimal difference in energy savings. The... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/05z57695 Thu, 16 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Xu, Yujie https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1805-1872 Vahmani, Pouya https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2519-6671 Jones, Andrew https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1913-7870 Hong, Tianzhen https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1886-9137 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8kt4g6cb <p>In this paper we ask: in what ways will utilities need to upgrade the electric distribution grid to accommodate electrified loads, and what will those upgrades cost? Our study focuses on the PG&amp;E service area in Northern California, which serves 4.8 million electricity customers and is subject to aggressive targets for both EV adoption and electrification of residential space and water heating. We create spatio-temporally detailed electricity demand forecasts, and compare that demand to distribution infrastructure limits across a range of technology adoption scenarios. We find that electrification of residential space and water heating will lead to fewer impacts on distribution feeder capacity than EV charging, but that both transitions will require an acceleration of the current pace of upgrades. We also find that timing and location have a strong influence on total capacity additions in important ways: for example, scenarios that favor daytime EV charging have similar... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8kt4g6cb Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Brockway, Anna Callaway, Duncan Elmallah, Salma https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6h52p180 <p>As countries pursue decarbonization goals, the rapid expansion of transmission capacity for renewable energy (RE) integration poses a significant challenge due to hurdles such as permitting and cost allocation. However, we find that large-scale reconductoring with advanced composite-core conductors can cost-effectively double transmission capacity within existing right-of-way (ROW), with limited additional permitting. This strategy unlocks a high availability of increasingly economically-viable RE resources in close proximity to the existing network. We implement reconductoring in a model of the United States power system, showing that reconductoring can help meet over 80% of the new interzonal transmission needed to reach over 90% clean electricity by 2035 given restrictions on greenfield transmission build-out. With $180 billion in system cost savings by 2050, reconductoring presents a cost-effective and time-efficient, yet underutilized, opportunity to accelerate global... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6h52p180 Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Chojkiewicz, Emilia Paliwal, Umed Abhyankar, Nikit Baker, Casey O'Connell, Ric Callaway, Duncan Phadke, Amol https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9gh0n3rr The economic value of distributed photovoltaic (PV) electricity is affected both by its correlation with transmission level energy prices and by a host of effects it may have on distribution systems. In this study we combine detailed physical simulation of distribution circuits with budgetary information provided by Pacific Gas &amp; Electric (PG&amp;E) to estimate PV’s value with respect avoided transmission-level energy expenditures, avoided distribution system capacity upgrades, and increased expenditures to manage voltage magnitudes. We find that favorable timing of generation and the potential to defer capacity investments both increase PV’s value on average by a small amount. We use circuit-level loading and load growth data to show that distribution circuit capacity value is very heterogeneous: PV shows very little capacity value on most circuits but substantial (over $60/kW-yr, nearly half of the near-term targets for the cost of distributed PV) on a limited number of... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9gh0n3rr Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Cohen, Michael A Kauzmann, P A Callaway, Duncan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0wm9q737 Greenhouse gas mitigation efforts in the electricity sector emphasize accelerated deployment of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy resources. We evaluate renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) technologies across regional power systems in the United States in terms of carbon dioxide emissions displaced, operating costs avoided, and capacity value generated. We estimate that external, emissions-related benefits account for between one quarter and one half of the total value generated per MWh over our study period. Regional variation in these emissions benefits gives rise to economically significant, regional differences in second-best production subsidies. This variation is not reflected in the prevailing policy incentives that currently guide new investments. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0wm9q737 Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Callaway, Duncan Fowlie, Meredith McCormick, Gavin https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7rq7130q Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (GATM) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7rq7130q Wed, 1 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Friedlingstein, Pierre O'Sullivan, Michael Jones, Matthew W Andrew, Robbie M Bakker, Dorothee CE Hauck, Judith Landschützer, Peter Le Quéré, Corinne Li, Hongmei Luijkx, Ingrid T Peters, Glen P Peters, Wouter Pongratz, Julia Schwingshackl, Clemens Sitch, Stephen Canadell, Josep G Ciais, Philippe Aas, Kjetil Alin, Simone R Anthoni, Peter Barbero, Leticia Bates, Nicholas R Bellouin, Nicolas Benoit-Cattin, Alice Berghoff, Carla F Bernardello, Raffaele Bopp, Laurent Brasika, Ida Bagus Mandhara Chamberlain, Matthew A Chandra, Naveen Chevallier, Frédéric Chini, Louise P Collier, Nathan O Colligan, Thomas H Cronin, Margot Djeutchouang, Laique M Dou, Xinyu Enright, Matt P Enyo, Kazutaka Erb, Michael Evans, Wiley Feely, Richard A Feng, Liang Ford, Daniel J Foster, Adrianna Fransner, Filippa Gasser, Thomas Gehlen, Marion Gkritzalis, Thanos De Souza, Jefferson Goncalves Grassi, Giacomo Gregor, Luke Gruber, Nicolas Guenet, Bertrand Gürses, Özgür Harrington, Kirsty Harris, Ian Heinke, Jens Hurtt, George C Iida, Yosuke Ilyina, Tatiana Ito, Akihiko Jacobson, Andrew R Jain, Atul K Jarníková, Tereza Jersild, Annika Jiang, Fei Jones, Steve D Kato, Etsushi Keeling, Ralph F https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9749-2253 Goldewijk, Kees Klein Knauer, Jürgen Kong, Yawen Korsbakken, Jan Ivar Koven, Charles https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Kunimitsu, Taro Lan, Xin Liu, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Zhu Monaco, Claire Lo Ma, Lei Marland, Gregg McGuire, Patrick C McKinley, Galen A Melton, Joe R Monacci, Natalie Monier, Erwan https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5533-6570 Morgan, Eric J Munro, David R Müller, Jens D Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro Nayagam, Lorna R Niwa, Yosuke Nutzel, Tobias Olsen, Are Omar, Abdirahman M Pan, Naiqing Pandey, Sudhanshu Pierrot, Denis https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6x629236 Measurement of methane fluxes (FCH₄) from natural systems, such as wetlands, has lagged far behind carbon dioxide fluxes. Short and fragmented wetland FCH₄ data limit our ability to assess its long-term dynamics and potential climate feedbacks. Extrapolating short-term FCH₄ records to recent decades remains challenging for both process-based models and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches. Here, we develop a knowledge-guided ML framework that integrates eddy covariance (EC) FCH₄ observations, field warming experiments, and biogeochemical knowledge to reconstruct the long-term FCH₄ budgets and trends. Focusing on the 11 longest EC monitoring sites in the AmeriFlux network, we found considerable variability in multi-decadal trends of wetland FCH₄, with increases up to 14% per decade from 2000 to 2024. We also found that the strength of these increasing trends declines from high to low latitudes, highlighting... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6x629236 Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Zhu, Qing Arndt, Kyle A Yuan, Kunxiaojia Li, Fa Ying, Qing Liu, Licheng Ward, Eric Malhotra, Avni Zheng, Jianqiu Yuan, Fenghui Malone, Sparkle L McNicol, Gavin Knox, Sara H Riley, William J Torn, Margaret S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 Chen, Shuo Riddell‐Young, Ben Oh, Youmi Bruhwiler, Lori https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7cj2616p Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets:... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7cj2616p Wed, 10 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 He, Yinan Shu, Shijie Holm, Jennifer https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5921-3068 Needham, Jessica Negron-Juarez, Robinson Koven, Charles https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Zhu, Qing Falco, Nicola https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3307-6098 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1rr9h3tk Abstract. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase&nbsp;7&nbsp;(CMIP7) request for data pertaining to Earth systems science, and provides justification for the resources needed to produce this data. Topics within the CMIP7 Earth System&nbsp;(CMIP7-ES) theme centre around tracking of flows of energy, carbon, water and other fluxes across domains, and constraining feedbacks between these cycles and the climate system. These topics are summarized in this paper as scientific “opportunities” describing specific model intercomparison experiments and use cases for next-generation Earth System Model&nbsp;(ESM) output. These opportunities were submitted by modelling groups and scientific consortia following an extended public consultation process. Contained within each opportunity are requests for groups of Climate &amp; Forecasting&nbsp;(CF) variables, which are bundled into variable groups representing all data required to address... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1rr9h3tk Thu, 14 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 McPartland, Mara Y Lovato, Tomas Koven, Charles https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Wilson, Jamie D Turner, Briony Petrik, Colleen M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3253-0455 Licón-Saláiz, José Li, Fang Lhardy, Fanny Kinney, Jaclyn Clement Kawamiya, Michio Hassler, Birgit Gillett, Nathan P Fall, Modou Noreyni Danek, Christopher Brierley, Chris M Bastos, Ana Andrews, Oliver https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7rc4t27b Abstract Uncertainty in land model projections remains high and the roles of parametric and structural uncertainty are difficult to disentangle. To compare parametric sensitivity across model structures we present two parameter perturbation ensembles using the Community Land Model (CLM) operating in satellite phenology mode. The ensembles contrast two vegetation modules: (a) the default CLM vegetation module and (b) the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (CLM‐FATES). We perturbed over 300 parameters and quantified their effects on biophysical fluxes globally and across biomes. Most parameters have minimal impact on biophysical fluxes, with only a few substantially influencing results. While both models exhibit similar parameter sensitivity for some fluxes, CLM‐FATES shows larger spread in gross primary productivity (GPP), driven by strong sensitivity to carboxylation rate. CLM‐FATES also shows a weaker GPP response to soil hydrology parameters and exhibits... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7rc4t27b Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Foster, AC Hawkins, LR Kennedy, D Bonan, GB Fisher, RA Needham, JF https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3653-3848 Knox, RG https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1140-3350 Koven, CD https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Wieder, WR Dagon, K Lawrence, DM https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4912x100 People of color in the United States are disproportionately and unfairly exposed to air pollution. Equity-oriented scientific evaluations quantifying these disparities often use population-average exposure metrics to capture the overall inequality within a system. Utilizing these metrics involves choices about the exposure input for assessing disparity, the study geography, and the reference population, which are critical to understanding disparities and effectively designing interventions. Here, we use a case study of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) from California's agricultural sector to dissect the implications of these decisions. Using a reduced-complexity model and emissions of PM_2.5 and precursors, we compare estimates of racial and ethnic disparities in exposure resulting from different combinations of these methodological choices. The full population distributions highlight differences between disparities at the extremes (e.g., 90th percentile)... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4912x100 Mon, 30 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Koolik, LibbyH Speizer, Simone https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2397-8760 Rong, Clara Chambliss, Sarah Marshall, Julian D Morello-Frosch, Rachel https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1153-7287 Tessum, Christopher W Apte, Joshua S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2796-3478 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9r731156 The dominant paradigm for power system dynamic simulation is to build system-level simulations by combining physics-based models of individual components. The sheer size of the system along with the rapid integration of inverter-based resources exacerbates the computational burden of running time domain simulations. In this paper, we propose a data-driven surrogate model based on implicit machine learningspecifically deep equilibrium layers and neural ordinary differential equationsto learn a reduced order model of a portion of the full underlying system. The data-driven surrogate achieves similar accuracy and reduction in simulation time compared to a physics-based surrogate, without the constraint of requiring detailed knowledge of the underlying dynamic models. This work also establishes key requirements needed to integrate the surrogate into existing simulation workflows; the proposed surrogate is initialized to a steady state operating point that matches the power flow solution... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9r731156 Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Bossart, Matthew Lara, Jose Daniel Roberts, Ciaran Henriquez-Auba, Rodrigo Callaway, Duncan S Hodge, Bri-Mathias https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6ss5n3rn Limiting climate warming to 1.5 °C requires reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and CO2 removal. While various CO2 removal strategies have been explored to achieve global net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and account for legacy emissions, additional exploration is warranted to examine more durable, scalable and sustainable approaches to achieve climate targets. Here we show that preserving woody debris in managed forests can remove gigatonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere sustainably based on a carbon cycle analysis using three Earth system models. Woody debris is produced from logging, sawmill wastes and abandoned woody products, and can be preserved in deep soil to lengthen its residence time (a measure of durability) by thousands of years. Preserving annual woody debris production in managed forests has the capacity to remove 769–937 GtCO2 from the atmosphere cumulatively (10.1–12.4 GtCO2 yr−1 on average) from 2025 to 2100, if its residence time is lengthened for 100–2,000... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6ss5n3rn Mon, 9 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Luo, Yiqi Wei, Ning Lu, Xingjie Zhou, Yu Tao, Feng Quan, Quan Liao, Cuijuan Jiang, Lifen Xia, Jianyang Huang, Yuanyuan Niu, Shuli Xu, Xiangtao Sun, Ying Zeng, Ning Koven, Charles https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Peng, Liqing Davis, Steve Smith, Pete You, Fengqi Jiang, Yu Cheng, Lailiang Houlton, Benjamin https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0pr9982b Abstract. The latest generation of geostationary satellites provide Earth observations similar to widely used polar-orbiting sensors but at intervals as frequently as every 5–10 min, making them ideal for studying the diurnal dynamics of land–atmosphere interactions. The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) group created the GeoNEX datasets by collating data from several geostationary platforms, including GOES-16/17/18, Himawari-8/9, and GK-2A, and placing them on a common grid to facilitate use by the Earth science community. Here, we document the GeoNEX Coincident Ground Observations (GeCGO) dataset for terrestrial ecosystem studies and provide examples for its use. Currently, GeCGO provides GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data over a 10 km × 10 km area surrounding 1586 network sites across the Americas. GeCGO makes it easy to compare the time series of geostationary data with the diurnal ground observations, including carbon/water fluxes and aerosol optical depth, and is extensible... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0pr9982b Tue, 17 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Hashimoto, Hirofumi Wang, Weile Park, Taejin Khajehei, Sepideh Ichii, Kazuhito Michaelis, Andrew R Guzman, Alberto Nemani, Ramakrishna R Torn, Margaret S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 Yi, Koong Brosnan, Ian G https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1s8948r5 The DREAM approach to demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia, 2020–2060 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1s8948r5 Tue, 10 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Reyseliani, Nadhilah Letschert, Virginie Khanna, Nina Ke, Jing de la Rue du Can, Stephane https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8054-5737 Lu, Hongyou Feng, Wei Zhou, Nan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5p27k0vx Abstract Explicit representation of soil microbial processes and interactions with biotic and abiotic processes in Earth System Models (ESMs) remains limited, despite their importance in biogeochemical cycles. To address this gap, which hinders prediction of global biogeochemial cycling and responses to atmospheric conditions, we integrated a microbe‐ and mineral‐surface‐explicit model, the Reaction‐network‐based model of soil organic matter and Microbes (ReSOM), into the Energy Exascale ESM (E3SM) land model (ELM). Here, we describe ELM‐ReSOM and show a case study at a conifer forest in California. ELM‐ReSOM accurately simulated surface CO 2 fluxes and SOM stocks, demonstrating improved representations of microbial and mineral interactions compared to the default ELM. We examined ELM‐ReSOM sensitivity to microbial traits, enzyme properties, and organo‐mineral interactions. Microbial traits such as the maximum mortality rate, transporter‐density scaling factor, and maximum monomer... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5p27k0vx Thu, 22 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Tao, Jing https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4009-2910 Riley, William J Tang, Jinyun https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4792-1259 Zhu, Qing Pegoraro, Elaine L Castanha, Cristina https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7327-5169 Abramoff, Rose Z Torn, Margaret S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/29z2p2f3 Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process-based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/29z2p2f3 Mon, 5 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Wilcox, Kevin R Chen, Anping Avolio, Meghan L Butler, Ethan E Collins, Scott Fisher, Rosie Keenan, Trevor https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3347-0258 Kiang, Nancy Y Knapp, Alan K Koerner, Sally E Kueppers, Lara https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8134-3579 Liang, Guopeng Lieungh, Eva Loik, Michael https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0847-6778 Luo, Yiqi Poulter, Ben Reich, Peter Renwick, Katherine Smith, Melinda D Walker, Anthony Weng, Ensheng Komatsu, Kimberly J https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8tz9f800 Abstract Stomata mediate fluxes of carbon and water between terrestrial plants and the atmosphere. These fluxes are governed by stomatal function and can be modulated in many Earth system models by an empirical parameter within the calculation of stomatal conductance, the stomatal slope . Intuitively, represents the marginal water cost of carbon, relating it to the emergent plant property of water use efficiency. Observations show that can range widely across and within plant types in varying environments, and this distribution of is not captured within Earth system models which represent each plant type with a single value. Here we examine how influences photosynthesis using coupled Earth system model simulations by perturbing to observed and percentiles for each plant type. We find that high reduces photosynthesis nearly everywhere, while low has regionally dependent responses. Under fixed atmospheric conditions, low increases photosynthesis in the Amazon and central North America... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8tz9f800 Wed, 17 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Liu, Amy X Zarakas, Claire M Buchovecky, Benjamin G Hawkins, Linnia R Cordak, Alana S Cornish, Ashley E Haagsma, Marja Kooperman, Gabriel J Still, Chris J Koven, Charles D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Turner, Alexander J Battisti, David S Randerson, James T https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6559-7387 Hoffman, Forrest M Swann, Abigail LS https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5kp3s63d Abstract. Coastal forests are increasingly experiencing mortality due to inundation by fresh- and seawater, leading to their replacement by marshes. These shifts alter vegetation composition, biogeochemical cycling, carbon storage, and hydrology. Using a hydraulically enabled ecosystem demography model (FATES-Hydro), we conducted numerical experiments to investigate the mechanisms behind inundation-driven forest loss and the ecosystem-scale consequences of forest-to-marsh transitions. We compared mortality processes and their effects across broadleaf and conifer trees at two coastal sites – Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (saline). Our simulations show that hydraulic failure, driven by root loss under prolonged flooding, is the primary mortality mechanism across both tree types and sites. Forest replacement by marsh reduced ecosystem-scale leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), transpiration, and deep soil water uptake in conifer forests, while broadleaf... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5kp3s63d Wed, 17 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Ding, Junyan McDowell, Nate Bailey, Vanessa Conroy, Nate Day, Donnie J Fang, Yilin Kemner, Kenneth M Kirwan, Matthew L Koven, Charlie D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Kovach, Matthew Megonigal, Patrick Morris, Kendalynn A O'Meara, Teri Pennington, Stephanie C Peixoto, Roberta B Thornton, Peter Weintraub, Mike Regier, Peter Sandoval, Leticia Machado-Silva, Fausto Stearns, Alice Ward, Nick Wilson, Stephanie J https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5gm6g6q3 Abstract. Idealized experiments with coupled climate-carbon Earth system models (ESMs) provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to external forcing and for quantifying climate-carbon feedbacks. Here, we analyze globally-averaged results from idealized esm-flat10 experiments and show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean during a period of constant fossil fuel emissions of 10 Pg C yr−1. We hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. Further, as a simplification, we quantify the relationship between cumulative ocean carbon uptake and changes in ocean heat content using a linear approximation. In this way, changes in oceanic heat content and atmospheric CO2 concentration become interdependent variables, reducing the coupled temperature-CO2 system to just one differential equation. The equation can be solved analytically or numerically for the atmospheric... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5gm6g6q3 Wed, 17 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Brovkin, Victor Sanderson, Benjamin M Brizuela, Noel G Hajima, Tomohiro Ilyina, Tatiana Jones, Chris D Koven, Charles https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Lawrence, David Lawrence, Peter Li, Hongmei Liddcoat, Spencer Romanou, Anastasia Séférian, Roland Sentman, Lori T Swann, Abigail LS Tjiputra, Jerry Ziehn, Tilo Winkler, Alexander J https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9650k3g9 Cookstove carbon offset projects can progress multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including climate, energy, health, gender, poverty and deforestation. However, project emission reductions must be accurately or conservatively estimated to avoid undermining climate action and long-term SDG financing. Here we conduct a comprehensive, quantitative, quality assessment of offsets by comparing five cookstove methodologies with published literature and our own analysis. We find misalignment, in order of importance, with fraction of non-renewable biomass, firewood–charcoal conversion, stove adoption, stove usage, fuel consumption, stacking (using multiple stoves), rebound and emission factors. Additionality, leakage, permanence and overlapping claims require more research. We estimate that our project sample is over-credited 9.2 times. Gold Standard’s metered methodology, which directly monitors fuel use, is most aligned with our estimates (1.5 times over-credited) and has... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9650k3g9 Thu, 4 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Gill-Wiehl, Annelise Kammen, Daniel M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2984-7777 Haya, Barbara K https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7010-3908 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3gx8z77m Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) are advanced tools for simulating forest responses to climate and land-use changes, and are essential for projecting carbon cycling and large-scale forest management strategies. Despite their increasing incorporation into Earth System Models, VDMs differ in their demographic assumptions, with no prior quantitative comparison of their performance. We benchmarked nine VDMs against observational data from boreal, temperate and tropical sites, assessing their accuracy in predicting tree growth, carbon turnover, biomass stocks and size distributions. Models were simulated under consistent climate conditions with postdisturbance recovery monitored for at least 420 yr. Postdisturbance carbon recovery trajectories showed significant variability while remaining within observational ranges. Initial regrowth rates varied substantially (0.03-0.60, 0.18-0.70 and 0.35-1.10 kgCm^-2 yr^-1 for boreal, temperate and tropical sites, respectively),... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3gx8z77m Thu, 4 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Eckes‐Shephard, Annemarie H Argles, Arthur PK Brzeziecki, Bogdan Cox, Peter M De Kauwe, Martin G Esquivel‐Muelbert, Adriane Fisher, Rosie A Hurtt, George C Knauer, Jürgen Koven, Charles D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Lehtonen, Aleksi Luyssaert, Sebastiaan Marqués, Laura Ma, Lei Marie, Guillaume Moore, Jonathan R Needham, Jessica F https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3653-3848 Olin, Stefan Peltoniemi, Mikko Piltz, Karl Sato, Hisashi Sitch, Stephen Stocker, Benjamin D Weng, Ensheng Zuleta, Daniel Pugh, Thomas AM https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3nq2w9zf The transition to all-electric driving is essential for achieving carbon reduction goals in China's transportation sector, which is significantly influenced by economic costs and emission reduction benefits. In this study, a comprehensive provincial assessment method is developed to quantify the levelized cost of operation (LCOO) for four electric vehicle (EV) types in China, revealing a complex interaction between geographical, economic, and technological factors. We find that the LCOO of EVs ranges from $1.36/100 km for private light-duty vehicles in the northwest region to $26.09/100 km for heavy-duty trucks in the northeast region. The results emphasize the significant disparities in the LCOO of EVs across vehicle types and regions while underscoring the relative importance of various cost components. With the widespread electrification of transportation, there is an urgent requirement for a comprehensive model to disaggregate and estimate the LCOO considering multiple factors,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3nq2w9zf Fri, 21 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Li, Bo Yang, Mingxia He, Gang https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8416-1965 Ruan, Guangchun Wang, Jianxiao Cui, Xueqin Zhong, Haiwang Kammen, Daniel M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2984-7777 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9hg7c97s Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are key drivers of extreme precipitation in the Western U.S. Using regionally downscaled thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations, we examine how ARs with varying wind and moisture characteristics respond to warming. We classified 812 historical AR events into Gusty‐Wet, Gusty‐Dry, Calm‐Wet, and Calm‐Dry groups to evaluate differences in precipitation behavior. ARs with stronger winds and higher moisture content exhibit higher precipitation efficiency (PE) and greater integrated water vapor (IWV). Regionally, Calm ARs show higher IWV accumulation due to slower inland transport and reduced PE. Projections indicate increases in storm‐total (sub‐Clausius‐Clapeyron (CC) scaling) and maximum 3‐hourly precipitation (super‐CC scaling) across all groups, with the most pronounced changes in Gusty‐Wet and Calm‐Wet ARs. Spatial differences in surface runoff, PE, and inland reach highlight the importance of AR subtype in shaping future flood hazards.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9hg7c97s Tue, 18 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Zhou, Yang https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2835-4081 Wehner, Michael M https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8423-7870 Rhoades, Alan M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3723-2422 Jones, Andrew D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1913-7870 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/38q3q585 AmeriFlux is a community of scientists measuring ecosystem carbon, water, and energy fluxes across the Americas with eddy covariance techniques. The network’s data team collects flux data for quality assessment and provides standardized data products to the earth science research community. Critical for scientists’ use of the flux data are the supporting Biological, Ancillary, Disturbance and Metadata (BADM) that provide context, such as measurement heights, instrument operations, and disturbance events. Managing and collating BADM into standardized data products are challenging due to their inherent long-tail data characteristics, i.e., they are diverse, free-formed, and infrequently measured. Over the past 12 years, we have worked with the community to standardize and then manage BADM using a SQL database with strong data quality criteria. BADM’s inherent nature demands rigorous quality checks of submitted data. Some of these checks provide feedback to data providers for correction,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/38q3q585 Fri, 31 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Cheah, You-Wei https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2241-4901 Christianson, Danielle Chu, Housen https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8131-4938 Pastorello, Gilberto https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9387-3702 O'Brien, Fianna Ong, Yeongshnn van Ingen, Catharine Torn, Margaret https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 Agarwal, Deb https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5045-2396 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/70w229vm Abstract Wood harvesting alters land surface properties and energy redistribution, but there is a lack of studies estimating these changes on a global scale. We coupled a vegetation demographic model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, with the E3SM land model to perform offline model simulation to investigate the land biogeophysical responses, including canopy coverage, leaf area index, albedo, surface roughness length, and energy fluxes, to historical wood harvest on the global scale. In this study, we found 50% less harvested carbon (C) when choosing the area‐based harvest rate as driving data that has not been spatially harmonized, compared to reharmonized mass‐based harvesting. By considering the uncertainty from reconstruction of historical wood harvest time series and the choice of wood harvest approach in the model, continuous wood harvest (1850–2015) results in 5%–10% of canopy coverage loss, contributing 0.5%–1% increase of albedo over disturbed... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/70w229vm Tue, 21 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Shu, Shijie Di Vittorio, Alan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8139-4640 Koven, Charles D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Huang, Maoyi Knox, Ryan G https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1140-3350 Lemieux, Gregory https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5304-8938 Holm, Jennifer A https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5921-3068 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5qg0m83w Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net-zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here, we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation, with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5qg0m83w Wed, 8 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Sanderson, Benjamin M Brovkin, Victor Fisher, Rosie A Hohn, David Ilyina, Tatiana Jones, Chris D Koenigk, Torben Koven, Charles https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Li, Hongmei Lawrence, David M Lawrence, Peter Liddicoat, Spencer MacDougall, Andrew H Mengis, Nadine Nicholls, Zebedee O'Rourke, Eleanor Romanou, Anastasia Sandstad, Marit Schwinger, Jörg Séférian, Roland Sentman, Lori T Simpson, Isla R Smith, Chris Steinert, Norman J Swann, Abigail LS Tjiputra, Jerry Ziehn, Tilo https://escholarship.org/uc/item/07q42722 Offshore wind (OSW) power is critical to addressing energy security issues in nations with limited land and fuel resources. This study aims to assess the quality of OSW resources with high temporal and spatial resolution and to elucidate the economically feasible deployment of OSW using advanced power system models with Japan as a case study. First, comprehensive evaluations of OSW resources were performed by integrating a geographic information system (GIS)-based resource assessment with simulated data for hourly resource availability and renewable power plant operation. Then, using the ‘SWITCH-Japan’ model developed in our previous study, four key policy scenarios (‘pathways’) were analyzed. Each scenario incorporated three technology cost sensitivities and was assessed on multiple criteria including affordability, energy security, and land-use change. Finally, the potential for hydrogen production in other sectors was explored. We found that the Least-Cost scenario, which accelerates... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/07q42722 Tue, 23 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Shiraishi, Kenji Paliwal, Umed Abhyankar, Nikit https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3383-8558 Kammen, Daniel M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2984-7777 Phadke, Amol https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2607-1689 Park, Won Young https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9x04n0w7 Purpose of ReviewWe review how ‘abrupt thaw’ has been used in published studies, compare these definitions to abrupt processes in other Earth science disciplines, and provide a definitive framework for how abrupt thaw should be used in the context of permafrost science.Recent FindingsWe address several aspects of permafrost systems necessary for abrupt thaw to occur and propose a framework for classifying permafrost processes as abrupt thaw in the future. Based on a literature review and our collective expertise, we propose that abrupt thaw refers to thaw processes that lead to a substantial persistent environmental change within a few decades. Abrupt thaw typically occurs in ice-rich permafrost but may be initiated in ice-poor permafrost by external factors such as hydrologic change (i.e., increased streamflow, soil moisture fluctuations, altered groundwater recharge) or wildfire.SummaryPermafrost thaw alters greenhouse gas emissions, soil and vegetation properties, and hydrologic... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9x04n0w7 Tue, 9 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Webb, Hailey Fuchs, Matthias Abbott, Benjamin W Douglas, Thomas A Elder, Clayton D Ernakovich, Jessica Gilman Euskirchen, Eugenie S Göckede, Mathias Grosse, Guido Hugelius, Gustaf Jones, Miriam C Koven, Charles https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Kropp, Heather Lathrop, Emma Li, WenWen Loranty, Michael M Natali, Susan M Olefeldt, David Schädel, Christina Schuur, Edward AG Sonnentag, Oliver Strauss, Jens Virkkala, Anna-Maria Turetsky, Merritt R https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0561v5ct Abstract Comprehensive land models are subject to significant parametric uncertainty, which can be hard to quantify due to the large number of parameters and high model computational costs. We constructed a large parameter perturbation ensemble (PPE) for the Community Land Model version 5.1 with biogeochemistry configuration (CLM5.1‐BGC). We performed more than 2,000 simulations perturbing 211 parameters across six forcing scenarios. This provides an expansive data set, which can be used to identify the most influential parameters on a wide range of output variables globally, by biome, or by plant functional type. We found that parameter effects can exceed scenario effects and that a small number of parameters explains a large fraction of variance across our ensemble. The most important parameters can differ regionally and also based on the forcing scenario. The software infrastructure developed for this experiment has greatly reduced the human and computer time needed for CLM... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0561v5ct Mon, 8 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kennedy, D Dagon, K Lawrence, DM Fisher, RA Sanderson, BM Collier, N Hoffman, FM Koven, CD https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Kluzek, E Levis, S Lu, X Oleson, KW Zarakas, CM Cheng, Y Foster, AC Fowler, MD Hawkins, LR Kavoo, T Kumar, S Newman, AJ Lawrence, PJ Li, F Lombardozzi, DL Luo, Y Shuman, JK Swann, ALS Swenson, SC Tang, G Wieder, WR Wood, AW https://escholarship.org/uc/item/06p7s99v The apparent respiratory quotient (ARQ) of tree stems, defined as the ratio of net stem CO2 efflux (ES_CO2) to net stem O2 influx (ES_O2), offers insights into the balance between local respiratory CO2 production and CO2 transported via the xylem. Traditional static chamber methods for measuring ARQ can introduce artifacts and obscure natural diurnal variations. Here, we employed an open flow-through stem chamber with ambient air coupled with cavity ring-down spectrometry, which uses the molecular properties of CO2 and O2 molecules to continuously measure ES_CO2, ES_O2, and ARQ, at the base of a California cherry tree (Prunus ilicifolia) during the 2024 growing season. Measurements across three stem chambers over 3–11-day periods revealed strong correlations between ES_CO2 and ES_O2 and mean ARQ values ranging from 1.3 to 2.9, far exceeding previous reports. Two distinct diurnal ARQ patterns were observed: daytime suppression with nighttime recovery, and a morning peak followed... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/06p7s99v Tue, 26 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Jardine, Kolby J https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8491-9310 Oliveira, Regison Ajami, Parsa Knox, Ryan https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1140-3350 Koven, Charlie https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Gimenez, Bruno Spanner, Gustavo Warren, Jeffrey McDowell, Nate Tcherkez, Guillaume Chambers, Jeffrey https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4759k67s As an emerging emitter poised for significant growth in space cooling demand, India requires comprehensive insights into historical emission trends and decarbonization performance to shape future low-carbon cooling strategies. By integrating a bottom-up demand resource energy analysis model and a top-down decomposition method, this study is the first to conduct a state-level analysis of carbon emission trends and the corresponding decarbonization efforts for residential space cooling in urban and rural India from 2000 to 2022. The results indicate that (1) the carbon intensity of residential space cooling in India increased by 292.4&nbsp;% from 2000 to 2022, reaching 513.8&nbsp;kg of carbon dioxide per household. The net state domestic product per capita, representing income, emerged as the primary positive contributor. (2) The increase in carbon emissions from space cooling can be primarily attributed to the use of fans. While fan-based space cooling has nearly saturated Indian... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4759k67s Tue, 19 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Yan, Ran Zhou, Nan Ma, Minda Mao, Chao https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0jn752fw Abstract The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system‐wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub‐region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0jn752fw Thu, 14 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Singhal, A Szinai, JK https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2030-3642 Yates, D Jones, AD https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1913-7870 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5698z3nq Abstract In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane‐affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM‐FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade‐tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo‐induced mortality rates are over ∼50%, and they induce a ∼39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre‐Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5698z3nq Tue, 22 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Shi, Mingjie Keller, Michael Bomfim, Barbara Kueppers, Lara https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8134-3579 Koven, Charlie Needham, Jessica https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3653-3848 Heartsill‐Scalley, Tamara Leung, L Ruby https://escholarship.org/uc/item/857232q8 Executive Summary This report examines ASEAN’s building sector and the many opportunities that it offers for increased energy efficiency. The ten countries that make up ASEAN are diverse: the region contains some of the largest countries in the world by population, small highly developed city states, and a number of fast-growing economies with rapidly emerging middle classes. The report focuses mostly on the largest five of these markets: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. While their energy circumstances vary, the countries of ASEAN have one thing in common: increasing pressures on their energy systems, from ongoing economic and industrial growth, infrastructure and capacity constraints, a reliance on energy imports, and rising incomes leading to increasing demand for energy using appliances. Taken together, and with ASEAN countries expected to add building floor space of as much as 22 billion m2 by 2060, optimizing energy use in buildings is therefore... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/857232q8 Wed, 16 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Lister, Mark Mowat, Anna du Pont, Peter Zhou, Nan Szum, Carolyn https://escholarship.org/uc/item/57w6r5h0 Climate warming is predicted to strongly affect the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. The plant root system is a critical component of these ecosystems, with fine roots, in particular, playing a key role in plant water and nutrient uptake and transport. In addition, root litter and exudation represent the dominant plant carbon inputs into soil. Consequently, understanding fine-root responses to warming is essential for predicting how the growth, resilience, and carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems will respond to future climate change. Despite the growing literature on fine-root responses to warming, most studies have focused on topsoil (0-30 cm). However, a significant portion of the fine-root mass occurs below this depth. For instance, c. 40% of fine-root mass is found below 30 cm in temperate and tropical ecosystems. Due to the importance of fine roots for plants and belowground carbon cycling, focusing solely on surface soils overlooks the critical need for insights... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/57w6r5h0 Tue, 1 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kengdo, Steve Kwatcho McCormack, M Luke Ostonen, Ivika Torn, Margaret S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3xq7t4wg Abstract. Calcium (Ca) may contribute to the preservation of soil organic carbon (SOC) in more ecosystems than previously thought. Here, we provide evidence that Ca is co-located with SOC compounds that are enriched in aromatic and phenolic groups, across different acidic soil types and locations with different ecosystem properties, differing in terms of climate, parent material, soil type, and vegetation. In turn, this co-localised fraction of Ca–SOC is removed through cation exchange, and the association is then only re-established during decomposition in the presence of Ca (Ca addition incubation). Thus, this highlights a causative link between decomposition and the co-location of Ca with a characteristic fraction of SOC. Decomposition increases the relative proportion of negatively charged functional groups, which can increase the propensity for the association between SOC and Ca; in turn, this association can inhibit dissolved organic carbon export or further decomposition.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3xq7t4wg Wed, 25 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Rowley, Mike C Pena, Jasquelin https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7081-3873 Marcus, Matthew A Porras, Rachel Pegoraro, Elaine Zosso, Cyrill Ofiti, Nicholas OE Wiesenberg, Guido LB Schmidt, Michael WI Torn, Margaret S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 Nico, Peter S https://escholarship.org/uc/item/13c5h1hc As governments and non-state actors strive to minimize global warming, a primary strategy is the decarbonization of power systems which will require a massive increase in renewable electricity generation. Leading energy agencies forecast a doubling of global hydropower capacity as part of that necessary expansion of renewables. While hydropower provides generally low-carbon generation and can integrate variable renewables, such as wind and solar, into electrical grids, hydropower dams are one of the primary reasons that only one-third of the world’s major rivers remain free-flowing. This loss of free-flowing rivers has contributed to dramatic declines of migratory fish and sediment delivery to agriculturally productive deltas. Further, the reservoirs behind dams have displaced tens of millions of people. Thus, hydropower challenges the world’s efforts to meet climate targets while simultaneously achieving other Sustainable Development Goals. In this paper, we explore strategies... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/13c5h1hc Wed, 4 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Opperman, Jeffrey J Carvallo, Juan Pablo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4875-8879 Kelman, Rafael Schmitt, Rafael JP Almeida, Rafael Chapin, Emily Flecker, Alexander Goichot, Marc Grill, Guenther Harou, Julien J Hartmann, Joerg Higgins, Jonathan Kammen, Daniel https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2984-7777 Martin, Erik Martins, Taina Newsock, Amy Rogéliz, Carlos Raepple, Justus Sada, Rajesh Thieme, Michele L Harrison, David https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0f67k472 Abstract: Affordability remains one of the most significant barriers to the exclusive use of clean cookstoves and fuels, a top global health, energy, and development priority. The measurement and discussion of clean fuel affordability is almost always based on the unitary, or single decision-maker, household as the unit of analysis, although the more realistic household disaggregated into its individual decision-makers is a well-established literature. The limited work on intra-household dynamics in clean cooking cannot reveal who is buying the stove or fuel and at what true cost. Following an experiment testing the effect of microsavings to increase clean fuel consumption in Shirati, a rural town in Mara region, Tanzania, we conducted 90 interviews and numerous focus groups/budget games with a stratified random sample of mostly female main cooks. Drawing on over two years of fieldwork, we investigate the range of household needs, the role of gender in household... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0f67k472 Wed, 4 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Gill-Wiehl, Annelise Ogoya, Shelly Dowdy-Arnold, Na'Zyia Ray, Isha https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9966-8822 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/87k6s3qz About 40% of the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested or suffered changes in forest structure through degradation (selective logging, fires, and fragmentation). The impact of forest degradation on the forest’s sensitivity to climate extremes has not been fully explored because of a lack of data and the complex interplay of forest structure and climate drivers. Here, we combined forest structure data from 545 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) across the Brazilian Amazon with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2). We explore the forest’s functional response to near-present (1981–2019) climate extremes under observed forest structure from lidar (Control) and two forest structure change scenarios: (1) forest recovery by excluding all future deforestation and degradation (Recovery) and (2) expansion of selective logging and deforestation (Degradation). Using the Control simulation, we found a close and positive association between local forest aboveground biomass and the predicted... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/87k6s3qz Tue, 6 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Longo, Marcos https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5062-6245 Keller, Michael Kueppers, Lara M https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8134-3579 Bowman, Kevin W Csillik, Ovidiu Ferraz, António Moorcroft, Paul R Ometto, Jean Pierre Soares-Filho, Britaldo S Xu, Xiangtao de Assis, Mauro LR Görgens, Eric B Larson, Erik JL Needham, Jessica F https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3653-3848 Ordway, Elsa M https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7720-1754 Pereira, Francisca RS Pinagé, Ekena Rangel Sato, Luciane Xu, Liang Saatchi, Sassan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6xn232vt Cities are concentrators of complex, multi-sectoral interactions. As keystones in the interconnected human-Earth system, cities have an outsized impact on the Earth system. We describe a multi-lens framework for organizing our understanding of the complexity of urban systems and scientific research on urban systems, which may be useful for natural system scientists exploring the ways their work can be made more actionable. We then describe four critical dimensions along which improvements are needed to advance the urban research that addresses urgent climate challenges: (a) solutions-oriented research, (b) equity-centered assessments which rely on fine-scale human and ecological data, (c) co-production of knowledge, and (d) better integration of human and natural systems occurring through theory, observation, and modeling. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6xn232vt Tue, 6 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Brelsford, Christa Jones, Andrew https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1913-7870 Pandey, Bhartendu Vahmani, Pouya https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2519-6671 Allen‐Dumas, Melissa Rastogi, Deeksha Sparks, Kevin Bukovsky, Melissa Dronova, Iryna Hong, Tianzhen https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1886-9137 Iwaniec, David M Newcomer, Michelle E https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5138-9026 Reid, Sean C Zheng, Zhonghua https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3n5102td Grid connections and inequitable access to electricity in African cities https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3n5102td Fri, 18 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kersey, Jessica Massa, Civian Kiki Lukuyu, June Mbabazi, Judith Taneja, Jay Kammen, Daniel M Jacome, Veronica https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0jh281hh Abstract Rangelands provide significant environmental benefits through many ecosystem services, which may include soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, quantifying SOC stocks and monitoring carbon (C) fluxes in rangelands are challenging due to the considerable spatial and temporal variability tied to rangeland C dynamics as well as limited data availability. We developed the Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) system to track long‐term changes in SOC and ecosystem C fluxes by leveraging remote sensing inputs and environmental variable data sets with algorithms representing terrestrial C‐cycle processes. Bayesian calibration was conducted using quality‐controlled C flux data sets obtained from 61 Ameriflux and NEON flux tower sites from Western and Midwestern US rangelands to parameterize the model according to dominant vegetation classes (perennial and/or annual grass, grass‐shrub mixture, and grass‐tree mixture). The resulting RCTM system produced higher... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0jh281hh Tue, 15 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Xia, Yushu Sanderman, Jonathan Watts, Jennifer D Machmuller, Megan B Mullen, Andrew L Rivard, Charlotte Endsley, Arthur Hernandez, Haydee Kimball, John Ewing, Stephanie A Litvak, Marcy Duman, Tomer Krishnan, Praveena Meyers, Tilden Brunsell, Nathaniel A Mohanty, Binayak Liu, Heping Gao, Zhongming Chen, Jiquan Abraha, Michael Scott, Russell L Flerchinger, Gerald N Clark, Patrick E Stoy, Paul C Khan, Anam M Brookshire, EN Jack Zhang, Quan Cook, David R Thienelt, Thomas Mitra, Bhaskar Mauritz‐Tozer, Marguerite Tweedie, Craig E Torn, Margaret S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 Billesbach, Dave https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8vz9v519 COVID-19 has triggered an unprecedented public health crisis and a global economic shock. As countries and cities have transitioned away from strict pandemic restrictions, the most effective reopening strategies may vary significantly based on their demographic characteristics and social contact patterns. In this study, we employed an extended age-specific compartment model that incorporates population mobility to investigate the interaction between population age structure and various containment interventions in New York, Los Angeles, Daegu, and Nairobi - four cities with distinct age distributions that served as local epicenters of the epidemic from January 2020 to March 2021. Our results demonstrated that individual social distancing or quarantine strategies alone cannot effectively curb the spread of infection over a one-year period. However, a combined strategy, including school closure, 50 % working from home, 50 % reduction in other mobility, 10 % quarantine rate, and... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8vz9v519 Wed, 9 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Yin, Hao Liu, Zhu Kammen, Daniel M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2984-7777 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4mc8t71f Offshore wind farms (OWF) are now in operation and increasingly under construction as scalable, sustainable energy sources. In fact OWFs are currently the cheapest form of new energy projects in Europe. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for OWF has fallen drastically due to decades of innovation facilitated by both taxpayer and private sector funding. This emerging industry is experiencing massive worldwide growth with the potential to accelerate the decarbonization of regional and the global economy as well as bring a reliable source of green hydrogen into commercial use, all with minimal disruption to ecosystems and impacts on biodiversity. This paper provides a historical perspective of wind energy harnessing and shows that wind turbines are the oldest, largest and one of the smartest machines. We also highlight the potential of offshore wind energy to provide new solutions to (a) meet clean energy demand for a growing world population, (b) improve energy security of nations... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4mc8t71f Wed, 9 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Bhattacharya, Subhamoy Kammen, Dan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2860g9nw 2 Kosovo’s conflict coal: regional stability through coordinated investments in sustainable energy infrastructure https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2860g9nw Wed, 9 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kittner, Noah Kammen, Daniel M https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5ch655kk Abstract Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations enhance greenhouse warming and drive changes to plant physiology, leading to innumerable climate impacts. This study explores the impacts of plant responses on hydrological cycling at 2x preindustrial CO 2 concentrations by analyzing simulations that isolate plant physiological effects using the Community Earth System Model versions 1 and 2. We find that leaf area growth increases canopy evaporation, which offsets transpiration declines, and dampens changes in global mean evapotranspiration, precipitation, and runoff in a CESM2 experiment with dynamic leaf area. These leaf area impacts are also evident in the differences between CESM1 and CESM2, with CESM2 better capturing observed leaf area magnitudes but potentially overestimating leaf area‐CO 2 sensitivity, highlighting the importance of plant CO 2 physiology on hydrological cycle changes and the need to improve its representation in climate models. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5ch655kk Tue, 18 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Cordak, Alana S Kooperman, Gabriel J Zarakas, Claire M Swann, Abigail LS Koven, Charles D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0zq3b9jr Despite its importance for determining global carbon fluxes, leaf respiration remains poorly constrained in land surface models (LSMs). We tested the sensitivity of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model - Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (ELM-FATES) to variation in the canopy gradients of leaf maintenance respiration (R_dark). We ran global and point simulations varying the canopy gradient of R_dark to explore the impacts on forest structure, composition, and carbon cycling. In global simulations, steeper canopy gradients of R_dark lead to increased understory survival and leaf biomass. Leaf area index (LAI) increased up to 77% in tropical regions compared with the default parameterization, improving alignment with remotely sensed benchmarks. Global vegetation carbon varied from 308 Pg C to 449 Pg C across the ensemble. In tropical forest simulations, steeper gradients of R_dark had a large impact on successional... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0zq3b9jr Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Needham, Jessica F https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3653-3848 Dey, Sharmila Koven, Charles D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Fisher, Rosie A Knox, Ryan G https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1140-3350 Lamour, Julien Lemieux, Gregory https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5304-8938 Longo, Marcos https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5062-6245 Rogers, Alistair https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9262-7430 Holm, Jennifer https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5921-3068 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3rp992df Grass-dominated ecosystems cover wide areas of the land surface yet have received far less attention from the Earth System Model (ESM) community. This limits model projections of ecosystem dynamics in response to global change and coupled vegetation-climate dynamics. We used the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a dynamic vegetation demography model, to determine ecosystem sensitivity to alternate, observed grass allometries and biophysical traits, and evaluated model performance in capturing California C₃ annual grasslands structure and fire regimes. Grass allometry, leaf physiology, plant phenology, and plant mortality all drove the seasonal variation in matter and energy exchange and fire dynamics in California annual grasslands. Allometry influenced grassland structure and function mainly through canopy architecture-mediated space and light competition instead of through carbon partitioning strategy. Regional variation in grassland... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3rp992df Mon, 3 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Gao, Xiulin Koven, Charles D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Longo, Marcos https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5062-6245 Robbins, Zachary Thornton, Polly Hall, Alex Levis, Samuel Rahimi, Stefan Xu, Chonggang https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0937-5744 Kueppers, Lara M https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8134-3579 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7r50192m The climate crisis necessitates decarbonization solutions that transform energy systems across all scales. While attention today focuses on utility-scale power systems, mini-or metro-scale grids, and at end-use device efficiency, the individual user scale remains underexplored. Just as with energy efficiency innovations tailored to micro-environments, body-scale energy savings offer new opportunities alongside technological and behavioral challenges. Here we propose a technique and a suite of potential innovations focused on the “body grid” in which devices, circuits, information network, human body and the environment interact within a universal framework to achieve energy savings, new functionality, and improved comfort. We present and test a prototype body grid supporting inter-device synergy and cooperation with external energy systems indoors and outdoors. This system yields substantial energy and economic savings, enhances personal control and comfort, and enables potential... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7r50192m Thu, 27 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Xu, Jiahe Zhang, Xuan Kammen, Daniel M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2984-7777 Wang, Jiahao Li, Daimeng Sun, Chongbo Guo, Qinglai Xie, Le Cheng, Ming Tao, Shengyu Sun, Hongbin https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8p61g39n Observations show an increase in the seasonal cycle amplitude of CO2 in northern latitudes over the past half century. Although multiple drivers contribute, observations and inversion models cannot quantitatively account for the factors contributing to the increased CO2 amplitude and older versions of Earth System Models (ESMs) do not simulate it. Here we show that several current generation ESMs are closer to the observed CO2 amplitude and highlight that in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) agricultural nitrogen (N) fertilization increases CO2 amplitude by 1-3 ppm throughout the Northern Hemisphere and up to 9 ppm in agricultural hotspots. While agricultural N fertilization is the largest contributor to the enhanced amplitude (45%) in Northern Hemisphere land-atmosphere carbon fluxes in CESM, higher CO2 concentrations and warmer temperatures also contribute, though to a lesser extent (40% and 18% respectively). Our results emphasize the fundamental role of agricultural... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8p61g39n Wed, 26 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Lombardozzi, Danica L Wieder, William R Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen Lai, Jiameng Luo, Zhenqi Sun, Ying Simpson, Isla R Lawrence, David M Bonan, Gordon B Lin, Xin Koven, Charles D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Friedlingstein, Pierre Lindsay, Keith https://escholarship.org/uc/item/723789mc Gender equality and quality of life must be central to the design and delivery of sanitation https://escholarship.org/uc/item/723789mc Wed, 26 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Marphatia, Akanksha A Simiyu, Sheillah O'Kane, Meriel Flint Alexander, Kelly T de Castro, Ana Carolina Argolo Nascimento Azcona, Ginette Boni-Morkla, Patience Esi Bukachi, Salome A Busienei, Phylis Caruso, Bethany A Chase, Claire Chipungu, Jenala Dwivedi, Anju Johnston, Richard Khurana, Indira Kome, Antoinette Kuria, Wanjiku Labadia, James Makoni, Fungai Mberu, Blessing Mojumdar, Sujoy Mule, Janet Sakwa, Lydia Namatende Njeri, Naomi de Souza, Fernanda Abreu Oliveira Pandolfelli, Lauren Ramunenyiwa, Petunia Ray, Isha https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9966-8822 Reddy, Malini Saha, Pritum Kumar Sinha, Utkarsh Sinharoy, Sheela S Slaymaker, Tom Uguru, Emmanuel Uhl, Kara Young, Sera L Ross, Ian Cumming, Oliver https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2xt723zc The Human Right to Water: A 20-Year Comparative Analysis of Arsenic in Rural and Carceral Drinking Water Systems in California https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2xt723zc Wed, 26 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Rempel, Jenny Ray, Isha https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9966-8822 Hessl, Ethan Vazin, Jasmine Zhou, Zehui Kim, Shin Zhang, Xuan Ding, Chiyu He, Ziyi Pellow, David Cohen, Alasdair https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2g9006xh Abstract Experimental soil heating experiments have found a consistent increase in soil‐surface CO 2 emissions ( F s ), but inconsistent soil organic carbon (SOC) responses. Interpretation of heating effects is complicated by spatial heterogeneity and soil moisture, nitrogen availability, and microbial and plant responses. Here we applied a mechanistic ecosystem model to interpret heating impacts on a California forest subjected to 1&nbsp;m deep, 4°C heating. The model accurately simulated control‐plot CO 2 fluxes, SOC stocks, fine root biomass, soil moisture, and soil temperature, and the observed increases in F s and decreases in fine root biomass. We show that a complex suite of interactions can lead to a consistent increase in F s (∼17%) over the 5‐year study period, with very small changes in SOC stocks (&lt;1%). Modeled increases in leaf water stress from soil drying reduced GPP and NPP. The resulting reduction in leaf and fine root allocation increased fine root... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2g9006xh Tue, 25 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Riley, WJ Tao, J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4009-2910 Mekonnen, ZA https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2647-0671 Grant, RF Brodie, EL https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8453-8435 Pegoraro, E https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6865-8613 Torn, MS https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6cx9g0hr Thermokarst lakes cause abrupt and sustained permafrost degradation and have the potential to release large quantities of ancient carbon to the atmosphere. Despite concerns about how lakes will affect the permafrost carbon feedback, the magnitude of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from deep permafrost soils remains poorly understood. Here we incubated a very deep sediment core (20 m) to constrain the potential productivity of thawed Yedoma and underlying Quaternary sand and gravel deposits. Through radiocarbon dating, sediment incubations and sediment facies classifications, we show that extensive permafrost thaw can occur beneath lakes on timescales of decades to centuries. Although it has been assumed that shallow, aerobic carbon dioxide production will dominate the climate impact of permafrost thaw, we found that anaerobic carbon dioxide and methane production from deep sediments was commensurate with aerobic production on a per gram carbon basis, and had double the global... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6cx9g0hr Tue, 11 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Freitas, Nancy L Walter Anthony, Katey Lenz, Josefine Porras, Rachel C Torn, Margaret S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4vc220r1 <p>National Park Service:</p><p>This panel session is aimed at undergraduate students to learn more about opportunities to get involved with geospatial data while still in school. Hear from several colleageus about opportunities through the National Park Service, a County GIS Program, and more.</p><p>Solano County GIS:</p><p>This panel session is aimed at undergraduate students to learn more about opportunities to get involved with geospatial data while still in school. Hear from several colleageus about opportunities through the National Park Service, a County GIS Program, and more.</p><p>NASA Develop:</p><p>This panel session is aimed at undergraduate students to learn more about opportunities to get involved with geospatial data while still in school. Hear from several colleageus about opportunities through the National Park Service, a County GIS Program, and more.</p> https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4vc220r1 Fri, 7 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Wilder, Doug Manchado, Daniel Bhajan, Liam Beardsley, Karen Tarmey, Maggie Sepúlveda Carlo, Edil A. Yates, Emma Huang, Jingyi Aldonado, Anna M. Zarate, Alina Bruellman, Ryan Yang, Bo Baronia, Danelle Angeline John, Christian Oh, Debby Brinkley, Catherine https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0fv7k4d5 <p>Comparing GIS-Based and WUDAPT Approaches for Local Climate Zone Mapping: A Case Study in Denton County:</p><p>The Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classification scheme offers a standardized framework for characterizing the local thermal environment, revolutionizing urban climate studies by moving beyond the traditional urban-rural dichotomy. This method classifies the landscape into 10 built types and 7 land cover types to provide a better representation of the urban fabric and morphology. While machine learning approaches using satellite imagery have gained tremendous popularity in LCZ mapping, they often require high-quality training samples and can introduce uncertainties depending on model performance and data quality.</p><p>In this study, we applied a GIS-based approach to map LCZs in Denton County, TX at a 100-meter resolution. Utilizing 1-meter resolution land cover data and LIDAR-derived products, we extracted key indicators such as building height, building surface fraction,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0fv7k4d5 Fri, 7 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Tse, Justin Zarate, Alina Bruellman, Ryan Yang, Bo https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9nn7q74z Climate warming may accelerate decomposition of Arctic soil carbon, but few controlled experiments have manipulated the entire active layer. To determine surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane under anticipated end-of-century warming, here we used heating rods to warm (by 3.8 °C) to the depth of permafrost in polygonal tundra in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska and measured fluxes over two growing seasons. We show that ecosystem respiration is ~30% higher in warmed plots than in control plots (0.99&nbsp;μmol m−2&nbsp;s−1 versus 0.67&nbsp;μmol&nbsp;m−2&nbsp;s−1, p &lt; 0.0001, n = 79). Additionally, the observed temperature sensitivity (Q10 of 2.8) is higher than that imposed for soil in Earth system models or reported by arctic experiments warming only the surface. A shoulder-season warming experiment revealed that rapid snow melt, which is becoming a more common event, can result in large methane emissions that may have otherwise been oxidized to carbon dioxide.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9nn7q74z Mon, 20 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Torn, Margaret S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 Abramoff, Rose Z Vaughn, Lydia JS Chafe, Oriana E Curtis, J Bryan Zhu, Biao https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8qh8r5ps Abstract Terrestrial processes influence the atmosphere by controlling land‐to‐atmosphere fluxes of energy, water, and carbon. Prior research has demonstrated that parameter uncertainty drives uncertainty in land surface fluxes. However, the influence of land process uncertainty on the climate system remains underexplored. Here, we quantify how assumptions about land processes impact climate using a perturbed parameter ensemble for 18 land parameters in the Community Earth System Model version 2 under preindustrial conditions. We find that an observationally‐informed range of land parameters generate biogeophysical feedbacks that significantly influence the mean climate state, largely by modifying evapotranspiration. Global mean land surface temperature ranges by 2.2°C across our ensemble ( σ &nbsp;=&nbsp;0.5°C) and precipitation changes were significant and spatially variable. Our analysis demonstrates that the impacts of land parameter uncertainty on surface fluxes propagate... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8qh8r5ps Wed, 8 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Zarakas, Claire M Kennedy, Daniel Dagon, Katherine Lawrence, David M Liu, Amy Bonan, Gordon Koven, Charles https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Lombardozzi, Danica Swann, Abigail LS https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zf2t23n Societal Impact Statement The global carbon budget provides annual updates to society on the main cause of climate change—CO 2 emissions—and quantifies carbon‐uptake ecosystem services provisioned by the biosphere. We show that more consistent assumptions in the estimates of land‐atmosphere carbon exchange results in a global carbon budget that is imbalanced (gains do not equal losses). This imbalance implies that key processes causing land carbon fluxes, especially processes associated with human land management and recovery following abandonment in anthropogenic biomes (anthromes), have been misquantified. This impacts policy for land carbon management across scales and calls for better understanding of carbon cycling in anthromes. Summary Inconsistencies in the calculation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms of the global carbon cycle are investigated. The two terms—the direct anthropogenic flux (caused by direct human disturbance in anthromes, currently a carbon... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5zf2t23n Tue, 7 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Walker, Anthony P Obermeier, Wolfgang A Pongratz, Julia Friedlingstein, Pierre Koven, Charles D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Schwingshackl, Clemens Sitch, Stephen O'Sullivan, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/37d9t3qc Societal Impact Statement Forest ecosystems absorb and store about 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions annually and are increasingly shaped by human land use and management. Climate change interacts with land use and forest dynamics to influence observed carbon stocks and the strength of the land carbon sink. We show that climate change effects on modeled forest land carbon stocks are strongest in tropical wildlands that have limited human influence. Global forest carbon stocks and carbon sink strength may decline as climate change and anthropogenic influences intensify, with wildland tropical forests, especially in Amazonia, likely being especially vulnerable. Summary Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/37d9t3qc Tue, 7 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Hogan, J Aaron Lichstein, Jeremy W Helmer, Eileen H Craig, Matthew E Fricke, Evan Henrich, Viola Kannenberg, Steven A Koven, Charles D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Goldewjik, Kees Klein Lapola, David M Li, Yue Malhi, Yadvinder Quinn, John Roe, Stephanie Terrer, Cesar Vilanova, Emilio Walker, Anthony P Zhu, Kai Ellis, Erle C https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7399q5nv Effective policymaking to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions demands an understanding of the complex drivers of, and barriers to, consumer adoption behavior via behaviorally realistic energy system models. Existing models tend to oversimplify by focusing on homogenized financial factors while neglecting consumer heterogeneity and non-monetary influences. This study develops and applies a comprehensive framework for evaluating the behavioral realism of consumer adoption models, informed by the adoption literature. It introduces a typology for factors influencing low-carbon technology adoption decisions: monetary and nonmonetary factors relating to household characteristics, psychology, technological attributes, and contextual conditions. Next, reviews of the consumer adoption and decision-making literature identify the most influential adoption factor categories for distributed solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and air-source heat pumps. Finally, the extent to which... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7399q5nv Fri, 3 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Ball-Burack, Ari Stack, Stephen Sun, Ruixiao Ou, Shiqi Bose, Ranjan Yang, Hung-Chia https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5sq8q0b8 In many complex systems encountered in the natural and social sciences, mechanisms governing system dynamics at a microscale depend upon the values of state variables characterizing the system at coarse-grained, macroscale (Goldenfeld and Woese, 2011, Noble et al., 2019, and Chater and Loewenstein, 2023). State variables, in turn, are averages over relevant probability distributions of the microscale variables. Neither inferential <i>Top-Down</i> nor mechanistic <i>Bottom-Up</i> modeling alone can predict responses of such scale-entwined systems to perturbations. We describe and explore the properties of a dynamic theory that combines <i>Top-Down</i> information-theoretic inference with <i>Bottom-Up</i>, state-variable-dependent mechanisms. The theory predicts the functional form of nonstationary probability distributions over microvariables and relates the trajectories of time-evolving macrovariables to the form of those distributions. Analytic expressions for the time evolution... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5sq8q0b8 Tue, 24 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Harte, John Brush, Micah Umemura, Kaito Muralikrishnan, Pranav Newman, Erica A https://escholarship.org/uc/item/34r3t5vn Assessing the emissions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) operations is crucial for accelerating the carbon–neutral transition in the passenger car sector. This study is the first to adopt a bottom-up model to measure the real-world energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of China’s top twenty selling PHEV models across different regions from 2020 to 2022. The results indicate that (1) the actual electricity intensity of the best-selling PHEV models (20.2–38.2&nbsp;kWh/100&nbsp;km) was 30–40&nbsp;% higher than the New European Driving Cycle values, and the actual gasoline intensity (4.7–23.5&nbsp;L/100&nbsp;km) was 3–6 times greater than the New European Driving Cycle values. (2) The overall energy use of the best-selling models varied among different regions, and the energy use from 2020 to 2022 in Southern China was double that Northern China and the Yangtze River Middle Reach. (3) The top-selling models emitted 4.7 megatons of carbon dioxide nationwide from 2020 to... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/34r3t5vn Wed, 4 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Deng, Yanqiao Ma, Minda Zhou, Nan Ma, Zhili Yan, Ran Ma, Xin https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2kw1p0f4 Abstract One key source of uncertainty for weather and climate models is structural uncertainty arising from the fact that these models must simplify or approximate complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur in the real world. However, structural uncertainty is rarely examined in the context of simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux in cities. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single‐layer urban canopy model, it is found that the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature to anthropogenic heat flux can differ by an order of magnitude depending on how anthropogenic heat flux is released to the urban environment. Moreover, varying model structures through changing the treatment of roof‐air interaction and the parameterization of convective heat transfer between the canopy air and the atmosphere can affect the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature by a factor of 4. Urban surface temperature and 2‐m air temperature... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2kw1p0f4 Wed, 4 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Li, Dan Sun, Ting Yang, Jiachuan Zhang, Ning Vahmani, Pouya https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2519-6671 Jones, Andrew https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1913-7870 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/03f6p68z Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in regulating global carbon cycles and is a key component of the Earth System Models (ESMs) aimed to project Earth's future climates. In the last decade, the vegetation component within ESMs has witnessed great progresses from simple 'big-leaf' approaches to demographically-structured approaches, which has a better representation of plant size, canopy structure, and disturbances. The demographically-structured vegetation models are typically controlled by a large number of parameters, and sensitivity analysis is generally needed to quantify the impact of each parameter on the model outputs for a better understanding of model behaviors. In this study, we use the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) to diagnose the Community Land Model coupled to the Ecosystem Demography Model, or CLM4.5(ED). We investigate the first and second order sensitivities of the model parameters to outputs that represent simulated growth and mortality as well as... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/03f6p68z Wed, 4 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Massoud, Elias C Xu, Chonggang https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0937-5744 Fisher, Rosie Knox, Ryan https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1140-3350 Walker, Anthony Serbin, Shawn Christoffersen, Bradley Holm, Jennifer https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5921-3068 Kueppers, Lara https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8134-3579 Ricciuto, Daniel M Wei, Liang Johnson, Daniel Chambers, Jeff Koven, Charlie https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 McDowell, Nate Vrugt, Jasper https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2599-1165 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8j45g6tk The electric sector simultaneously faces two challenges: decarbonization to mitigate, and adaptation to manage, the impacts of climate change. In many regions, these challenges are compounded by an interdependence of electricity and water systems, with water needed for hydropower generation and electricity for water provision. Here, we couple detailed water and electricity system models to evaluate how the Western Interconnection grid can both adapt to climate change and develop carbon-free generation by 2050, while accounting for interactions and climate vulnerabilities of the water sector. We find that by 2050, due to climate change, annual regional electricity use could grow by up to 2% from cooling and water-related electricity demand, while total annual hydropower generation could decrease by up to 23%. To adapt, we show that the region may need to build up to 139 GW of additional generating capacity between 2030 and 2050, equivalent to nearly thrice California’s peak demand,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8j45g6tk Tue, 3 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Szinai, Julia K https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2030-3642 Yates, David Sánchez-Pérez, Pedro A Staadecker, Martin Kammen, Daniel M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2984-7777 Jones, Andrew D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1913-7870 Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7xm0b6tk Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions significantly reduce health risks in low- and middle-income countries. Many rely on women, but the extent of women’s engagement remains undocumented. Here we conducted a re-review of papers from two systematic reviews that assessed the effectiveness of water, sanitation and/or handwashing with soap interventions on diarrhoeal disease and acute respiratory infections to assess women’s roles in WASH research and intervention activities. A total of 133 studies were included. Among studies that specified gender, women were the most sought-after group for engagement in research (n = 91/132; 68.9%) and intervention (n = 49/120; 40.8%) activities. Reporting time burden for research (n = 1; 1%) and intervention activities (n = 3; 2.5%) was rare. All interventions were classified as gender unequal (36.7%) or gender unaware (63.3%) according to the World Health Organization Gender Responsiveness Assessment Scale, indicating exploitative... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7xm0b6tk Sat, 9 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Caruso, Bethany A Ballard, April M Sobolik, Julia Patrick, Madeleine Dsouza, Janice Sinharoy, Sheela S Cumming, Oliver Wolf, Jennyfer Ray, Isha https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9966-8822 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5q01j5w7 The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5∘$$+3.5\,^\circ$$C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5q01j5w7 Tue, 5 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Rhoades, Alan M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3723-2422 Zarzycki, Colin M Hatchett, Benjamin J Inda-Diaz, Héctor Rudisill, William Bass, Benjamin https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8283-8226 Dennis, Eli Heggli, Anne McCrary, Rachel McGinnis, Seth Ombadi, Mohammed Rahimi-Esfarjani, Stefan Slinskey, Emily Srivastava, Abhishekh Szinai, Julia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2030-3642 Ullrich, Paul A https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4118-4590 Wehner, Michael Yates, David Jones, Andrew D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1913-7870 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7dj449zg Substantially reducing methane emissions is the fastest way to repress near-term warming and is an essential prerequisite for reaching the 1.5 °C target. However, knowledge about the global invention trend, sectoral and national distribution and international diffusion of methane-targeted abatement technologies (MTATs) remains limited. On the basis of patent data, we identify more than 175,000 MTAT inventions applied between 1990 and 2019 by 133 countries or dependent territories. Our results revealed that after sustained growth of more than fourfold, the number of global high-quality MTAT inventions declined by 3.5% annually from 2010 to 2019. The sectoral and national-level distributions of MTAT inventions and methane emissions are strongly mismatched. Additionally, the international diffusion of MTATs is 11.1% lower than that of overall climate change mitigation technologies and most transfers occur between developed countries or flow to China, South Korea and Brazil; however,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7dj449zg Fri, 25 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Jiang, Jingjing Yin, Deyun Sun, Zhuoluo Ye, Bin Zhou, Nan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xj724md Despite some progress, universal access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) by 2030-a remit of Sustainable Development Goal 6-remains a distant prospect in many countries. Policy-makers and implementers of the WASH sector are challenged to track a new path. This research aimed to identify core orienting themes of the sector, as legacies of past processes, which can provide insights for its future. We reviewed global policy, science and programmatic documents and carried out 19 expert interviews to track the evolution of the global WASH sector over seven decades. We situated this evolution in relation to wider trends in global health and development over the same time period.With transnational flows of concern, expertise and resources from high-income to lower-income countries, the WASH sector evolved over decades of international institutionalisation of health and development with (1) a focus on technologies (technicalisation), (2) a search for generalised solutions (universalisation),... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xj724md Wed, 23 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0000 de Wit, Sara Luseka, Euphrasia Bradley, David Brown, Joe Bhagwan, Jayant Evans, Barbara Freeman, Matthew C Howard, Guy Ray, Isha https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9966-8822 Ross, Ian Simiyu, Sheillah Cumming, Oliver Chandler, Clare IR https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5c29j8n4 Abstract Terrestrial evapotranspiration is the second‐largest component of the land water cycle, linking the water, energy, and carbon cycles and influencing the productivity and health of ecosystems. The dynamics of ET across a spectrum of spatiotemporal scales and their controls remain an active focus of research across different science disciplines. Here, we provide an overview of the current state of ET science across in situ measurements, partitioning of ET, and remote sensing, and discuss how different approaches complement one another based on their advantages and shortcomings. We aim to facilitate collaboration among a cross‐disciplinary group of ET scientists to overcome the challenges identified in this paper and ultimately advance our integrated understanding of ET. Key Points The main challenge in ET science is reconciling spatial data with point data from various sources across heterogeneous areas Each of the three general approaches to ET science (in situ measurements,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5c29j8n4 Thu, 10 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Yi, Koong https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-3031 Senay, Gabriel B Fisher, Joshua B https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4734-9085 Wang, Lixin Suvočarev, Kosana Chu, Housen https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8131-4938 Moore, Georgianne W Novick, Kimberly A Barnes, Mallory L Keenan, Trevor F https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3347-0258 Mallick, Kanishka Luo, Xiangzhong Missik, Justine EC Delwiche, Kyle B Nelson, Jacob A Good, Stephen P Xiao, Xiangming Kannenberg, Steven A Ahmadi, Arman Wang, Tianxin Bohrer, Gil Litvak, Marcy E Reed, David E Oishi, A Christopher Torn, Margaret S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 Baldocchi, Dennis https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3496-4919 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9z1233b4 Abstract We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12&nbsp;km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40‐year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6‐hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture‐related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50% to 80% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9z1233b4 Mon, 7 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Zarzycki, Colin M Zhang, Tyrone Jones, Andrew D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1913-7870 Rastogi, Deeksha Vahmani, Pouya https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2519-6671 Ullrich, Paul A https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4118-4590 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8pp319zj Understanding forest water limitation during droughts within a warming climate is essential for accurate predictions of forest-climate interactions. In hyperdiverse ecosystems like the Amazon forest, the mechanisms shaping hysteresis patterns in transpiration relative to environmental factors are not well understood. From this perspective, we investigated these dynamics by conducting in situ leaf-level measurements throughout and after the 2015 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in the hysteresis area (Harea ) among transpiration (E), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and stomatal conductance (gs ) at canopy level during the ENSO peak, attributed to both temporal lag and differences in magnitude between gs and VPD peaks. Specifically, the canopy species Pouteria anomala exhibited an increased Harea , due to earlier maximum gs rates leading to a greater temporal lag with VPD compared to the post-drought period. Additionally, leaf... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8pp319zj Tue, 24 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Gimenez, Bruno O Souza, Daisy C Higuchi, Niro Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I de Jesus Sampaio-Filho, Israel Araújo, Alessandro C Lima, Adriano JN Fontes, Clarissa G Jardine, Kolby J https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8491-9310 Koven, Charles D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Meng, Lin Pastorello, Gilberto https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9387-3702 McDowell, Nate Chambers, Jeffrey Q https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2pj6m1tt Vegetation distribution and composition are expected to change in northern high latitudes under rapid warming, which regulates ecosystem functions but remains challenging to predict. Vegetation change arises from the interplay of chronic climate trends such as warming and transient demographic processes of recruitment, growth, competition, and mortality. Most predictive models overlooked the role of demographic dynamics controlled by plant traits. Here, we simulate vegetation dynamics at the Kougarok Hillslope site in Alaska under historical and future climates using the E3SM Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator (ELM-FATES). To evaluate the roles of plant traits, we parameterize the model with 5,265 trait configurations representing diverse physiological and demographic strategies. Results show current modeled biomass, composition, and productivity are most sensitive to traits controlling photosynthetic capacity, carbon allocation, allometry,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2pj6m1tt Thu, 12 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Liu, Yanlan Holm, Jennifer A https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5921-3068 Koven, Charles D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Salmon, Verity G Rogers, Alistair https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9262-7430 Torn, Margaret S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7xp8v07z Tundra and boreal ecosystems encompass the northern circumpolar permafrost region and are experiencing rapid environmental change with important implications for the global carbon (C) budget. We analysed multi-decadal time series containing 302 annual estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) flux across 70 permafrost and non-permafrost ecosystems, and 672 estimates of summer CO2 flux across 181 ecosystems. We find an increase in the annual CO2 sink across non-permafrost ecosystems but not permafrost ecosystems, despite similar increases in summer uptake. Thus, recent non-growing-season CO2 losses have substantially impacted the CO2 balance of permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, analysis of interannual variability reveals warmer summers amplify the C cycle (increase productivity and respiration) at putatively nitrogen-limited sites and at sites less reliant on summer precipitation for water use. Our findings suggest that water and nutrient availability will be important predictors of... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7xp8v07z Wed, 11 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0000 See, Craig R Virkkala, Anna-Maria Natali, Susan M Rogers, Brendan M Mauritz, Marguerite Biasi, Christina Bokhorst, Stef Boike, Julia Bret-Harte, M Syndonia Celis, Gerardo Chae, Namyi Christensen, Torben R Murner (Connon), Sara June Dengel, Sigrid https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4774-9188 Dolman, Han Edgar, Colin W Elberling, Bo Emmerton, Craig A Euskirchen, Eugénie S Göckede, Mathias Grelle, Achim Heffernan, Liam Helbig, Manuel Holl, David Humphreys, Elyn Iwata, Hiroki Järveoja, Järvi Kobayashi, Hideki Kochendorfer, John Kolari, Pasi Kotani, Ayumi Kutzbach, Lars Kwon, Min Jung Lathrop, Emma R López-Blanco, Efrén Mammarella, Ivan Marushchak, Maija E Mastepanov, Mikhail Matsuura, Yojiro Merbold, Lutz Meyer, Gesa Minions, Christina Nilsson, Mats B Nojeim, Julia Oberbauer, Steven F Olefeldt, David Park, Sang-Jong Parmentier, Frans-Jan W Peichl, Matthias Peter, Darcy Petrov, Roman Poyatos, Rafael Prokushkin, Anatoly S Quinton, William Rodenhizer, Heidi Sachs, Torsten Savage, Kathleen Schulze, Christopher Sjögersten, Sofie Sonnentag, Oliver St. Louis, Vincent L Torn, Margaret S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina Ueyama, Masahito Varlagin, Andrej Voigt, Carolina Watts, Jennifer D Zona, Donatella Zyryanov, Viacheslav I Schuur, Edward AG https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4rn086b0 Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO₂ levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate the stand-level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086-2100: SSP2-45, SSP5-85) and two CO₂ levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1-11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO₂ provided only slight amelioration. By contrast,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4rn086b0 Wed, 11 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Robbins, Zachary Chambers, Jeffrey Chitra‐Tarak, Rutuja Christoffersen, Bradley Dickman, L Turin Fisher, Rosie Jonko, Alex Knox, Ryan https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1140-3350 Koven, Charles https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Kueppers, Lara https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8134-3579 McDowell, Nate Xu, Chonggang https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0937-5744 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2mr0697f With countries and economies around the globe increasingly relying on non-dispatchable variable renewable energy (VRE), the need for effective energy storage and international carriers of low-carbon energy has intensified. This study delves into hydrogen’s prospective, multifaceted contribution to decarbonizing the electricity sector, with emphasis on its utilization as a scalable technology for long-duration energy storage and as an international energy carrier. Using Japan as a case study, based on its ambitious national hydrogen strategy and plans to import liquefied hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel source, we employ advanced models encompassing capacity expansion and hourly dispatch. We explore diverse policy scenarios to unravel the timing, quantity, and operational intricacies of hydrogen deployment within a power system. Our findings highlight the essential role of hydrogen in providing a reliable power supply by balancing mismatches in VRE generation and load over several... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2mr0697f Wed, 11 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Shiraishi, Kenji Park, Won Young Kammen, Daniel M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2984-7777 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8dr7w284 Radiative forcing (RF) resulting from changes in surface albedo is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of global climate change but has not been adequately estimated, including by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, compared with other warming agents. Here, we first present the physical foundation for modeling albedo-induced RF and the consequent global warming impact (GWIΔα). We then highlight the shortcomings of available current databases and methodologies for calculating GWIΔα at multiple temporal scales. There is a clear lack of comprehensive in situ measurements of albedo due to sparse geographic coverage of ground-based stations, whereas estimates from satellites suffer from biases due to the limited frequency of image collection, and estimates from earth system models (ESMs) suffer from very coarse spatial resolution land cover maps and associated albedo values in pre-determined lookup tables. Field measurements of albedo show... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8dr7w284 Tue, 10 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Chen, Jiquan Lei, Cheyenne Chu, Housen https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8131-4938 Li, Xianglan Torn, Margaret https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 Wang, Ying-Ping Sciusco, Pietro Robertson, G Philip https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7p92z8kv As the two largest emerging emitters with the highest growth in operational carbon emissions from residential buildings, the historical emission patterns and decarbonization efforts of China and India warrant further exploration. This study aims to be the first to present a carbon intensity model considering end-use performances, assessing the operational decarbonization progress of residential building in India and China over the past two decades using the newest decomposing structural decomposition approach. Results indicate (1) the annual operational carbon intensity increased by 1.4% and 2.5% in China and India, respectively, between 2000 and 2020. Household expenditure-related energy intensity and emission factors were crucial in decarbonizing residential buildings. (2) Building electrification played a significant role in decarbonizing space cooling (−87.7 in China and&nbsp;−&nbsp;130.2&nbsp;kg of carbon dioxide (kgCO2) per household in India) and appliances (∼ −169.7 in... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7p92z8kv Fri, 6 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Yan, Ran Ma, Minda Zhou, Nan Feng, Wei Xiang, Xiwang Mao, Chao https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6408s2f2 Tropical cyclones are an important cause of forest disturbance, and major storms caused severe structural damage and elevated tree mortality in coastal tropical forests. Model capabilities that can be used to understand post-hurricane forest recovery are still limited. We use a vegetation demography model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES) to study the processes and the key factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery. We implemented hurricane-induced forest damage, including defoliation, structural biomass reduction, and tree mortality, performed ensemble model simulations, and used random forest feature importance. For the simulation in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, we identified factors controlling the post-hurricane forest recovery, and quantified the sensitivity of key model parameters to the post-hurricane forest recovery. The results indicate a tendency... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6408s2f2 Mon, 26 Aug 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Shi, Mingjie Keller, Michael Bomfim, Barbara Li, Lingcheng Koven, Charlie https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Kueppers, Lara https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8134-3579 Knox, Ryan https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1140-3350 Needham, Jessica https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3653-3848 Kao, Shih‐Chieh Thornton, Peter E Thornton, Michele M Leung, L Ruby https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9cq8c0tk As the world races to decarbonize power systems to mitigate climate change, the body of research analyzing paths to zero emissions electricity grids has substantially grown. Although studies typically include commercially available technologies, few of them consider offshore wind and wave energy as contenders in future zero-emissions grids. Here, we model with high geographic resolution both offshore wind and wave energy as independent technologies with the possibility of collocation in a power system capacity expansion model of the Western Interconnection with zero emissions by 2050. In this work, we identify cost targets for offshore wind and wave energy to become cost effective, calculate a 17% reduction in total installed capacity by 2050 when offshore wind and wave energy are fully deployed, and show how curtailment, generation, and transmission change as offshore wind and wave energy deployment increase. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9cq8c0tk Mon, 19 Aug 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Gonzalez, Natalia Serna-Torre, Paul Sánchez-Pérez, Pedro A Davidson, Ryan Murray, Bryan Staadecker, Martin Szinai, Julia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2030-3642 Wei, Rachel Kammen, Daniel M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2984-7777 Sunter, Deborah A Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1kz5p96x Improving collaborations between empiricists and modelers to advance grassland community dynamics in ecosystem models https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1kz5p96x Thu, 1 Aug 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Wilcox, Kevin R Komatsu, Kimberly J Avolio, Meghan L Consortium, C2E https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2jq4b867 Biomass allocation in plants is the foundation for understanding dynamics in ecosystem carbon balance, species competition, and plant-environment interactions. However, existing work on plant allometry has mainly focused on trees, with fewer studies having developed allometric equations for grasses. Grasses with different life histories can vary in their carbon investment by prioritizing the growth of specific organs to survive, outcompete co-occurring plants, and ensure population persistence. Further, because grasses are important fuels for wildfire, the lack of grass allocation data adds uncertainty to process-based models that relate plant physiology to wildfire dynamics. To fill this gap, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with 11 common California grasses varying in photosynthetic pathway and growth form. We measured plant sizes and harvested above- and belowground biomass throughout the life cycle of annual species, while for the establishment stage of perennial grasses... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2jq4b867 Mon, 29 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Gao, Xiulin Koven, Charles D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Kueppers, Lara M https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8134-3579 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2jr315cb Artificial intelligence has emerged as a technology to enhance productivity and improve life quality. However, its role in building energy efficiency and carbon emission reduction has not been systematically studied. This study evaluated artificial intelligence’s potential in the building sector, focusing on medium office buildings in the United States. A methodology was developed to assess and quantify potential emissions reductions. Key areas identified were equipment, occupancy influence, control and operation, and design and construction. Six scenarios were used to estimate energy and emissions savings across representative climate zones. Here we show that artificial intelligence could reduce cost premiums, enhancing high energy efficiency and net zero building penetration. Adopting artificial intelligence could reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions by approximately 8% to 19% in 2050. Combining with energy policy and low-carbon power generation could approximately... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2jr315cb Mon, 22 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Ding, Chao https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0373-0167 Ke, Jing Levine, Mark Granderson, Jessica https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4536-9560 Zhou, Nan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8d04g3cn Abstract Grasslands are one of the most common land‐cover types, providing important ecosystem services globally, yet few studies have examined grassland critical‐zone functioning throughout hillslopes. This study characterised a coastal grassland over a small hillslope at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, using multidisciplinary techniques, combining remotely‐sensed, geophysical, plant, and soil measurements. Clustering techniques delineated the study area into four landscape zones, up‐, mid‐, and down‐slope, and a bordering riparian ecotone, which had distinct environmental properties that varied spatially across the site, with depth, and time. Soil moisture increased with depth and down slope towards a bordering riparian zone, and co‐varied with soil CO 2 flux rates both spatially and temporally. This highlighted three distinct controls of soil moisture on soil respiration: CO 2 fluxes were inhibited by high moisture content in the down‐slope during the wet winter... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8d04g3cn Mon, 15 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Rowley, Mike C Falco, Nicola https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3307-6098 Pegoraro, Elaine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6865-8613 Dafflon, Baptiste https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9871-5650 Gerlein‐Safdi, Cynthia Wu, Yuxin https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6953-0179 Castanha, Cristina https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7327-5169 Peña, Jasquelin Nico, Peter S Torn, Margaret S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6p04b9c0 Stabilizing climate requires reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in land or ocean systems. Soil management practices can reduce GHG emissions or sequester atmospheric CO2 into inorganic and organic forms. However, whether soil carbon strategies represent a viable and impactful climate mitigation pathway is uncertain. A specific question concerns the role that land-management practices and soil amendments can play in realizing California’s ambition for carbon neutrality by 2045. Here we examine the carbon flux impacts of soil conservation (i.e., compost, reduced tillage, cover crop) and enhanced silicate rock weathering (EW) practices at different areal extents of implementation in cropland, grassland, and savanna in California under two climate change cases. We show that with implementation areas of 15% or 50% of private cultivated land, grassland, and savanna in California, soil conservation practices alone can contribute 1.40.72.1... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6p04b9c0 Mon, 15 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Di Vittorio, Alan V https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8139-4640 Simmonds, Maegen B Jones, Andrew https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1913-7870 Silver, Whendee L https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0372-8745 Houlton, Benjamin Torn, Margaret https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8174-0099 Almaraz, Maya Nico, Peter https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6fg3c2kg Abstract. Fire is a fundamental part of the Earth system, with impacts on vegetation structure, biomass, and community composition, the latter mediated in part via key fire-tolerance traits, such as bark thickness. Due to anthropogenic climate change and land use pressure, fire regimes are changing across the world, and fire risk has already increased across much of the tropics. Projecting the impacts of these changes at global scales requires that we capture the selective force of fire on vegetation distribution through vegetation functional traits and size structure. We have adapted the fire behavior and effects module, SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE), for use with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a size-structured vegetation demographic model. We test how climate, fire regime, and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the biogeography of tropical forests and grasslands. We assign different fire-tolerance strategies based... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6fg3c2kg Thu, 11 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Shuman, Jacquelyn K Fisher, Rosie A Koven, Charles https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 Knox, Ryan https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1140-3350 Kueppers, Lara https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8134-3579 Xu, Chonggang https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0937-5744 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/80r4x4cg Bacteria on and inside leaves can influence forest tree health and resilience. The distribution and limits of a tree species' range can be influenced by various factors, with biological interactions among the most significant. We investigated the processes shaping the bacterial needle community across the species distribution of limber pine, a widespread Western conifer inhabiting a range of extreme habitats. We tested four hypotheses: (i) Needle community structure varies across sites, with site-specific factors more important to microbial assembly than host species selection; (ii) dispersal limitation structures foliar communities across the range of limber pine; (iii) the relative significance of dispersal and selection differs across sites in the tree species range; and (iv) needle age structures bacterial communities. We characterized needle communities from the needle surface and tissue of limber pine and co-occurring conifers across 16 sites in the limber pine distribution.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/80r4x4cg Wed, 10 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Carper, Dana L Lawrence, Travis J Quiroz, Dianne Kueppers, Lara M https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8134-3579 Frank, A Carolin https://escholarship.org/uc/item/43q8596r Cement plays a dual role in the global carbon cycle like a sponge: its massive production contributes significantly to present-day global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, yet its hydrated products gradually reabsorb substantial amounts of atmospheric CO2 (carbonation) in the future. The role of this sponge effect along the cement cycle (including production, use, and demolition) in carbon emissions mitigation, however, remains hitherto unexplored. Here, we quantify the effects of demand- and supply-side mitigation measures considering this material-energy-emissions-uptake nexus, finding that climate goals would be imperiled if the growth of cement stocks continues. Future reabsorption of CO2 will be significant (~30% of cumulative CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100), but climate goal compliant net CO2 emissions reduction along the global cement cycle will require both radical technology advancements (e.g., carbon capture and storage) and widespread deployment of material efficiency measures,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/43q8596r Wed, 10 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Cao, Zhi Myers, Rupert J Lupton, Richard C Duan, Huabo Sacchi, Romain Zhou, Nan Reed Miller, T Cullen, Jonathan M Ge, Quansheng Liu, Gang