Recent ucd_policy_institute items

Fuel Portfolio Scenario Modeling (FPSM) of 2030 and 2035 Low CarbonFuel Standard Targets in California

Wed, 5 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plays a critical role in California’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions from transportation. The LCFS incentivizes the use of fuels with lower life cycle GHG emissions by using a credit market mechanism to provide incentives for low-carbon fuels, using revenue generated by charges applied to high-carbon ones. Maintaining an approximate balance between LCFS credit and deficit supplies helps support a stable LCFS credit price and the broader transition to low-carbon transportation. The Fuel Portfolio Scenario Model, presented here, evaluates bottom-up fuel supply and LCFS compliance to inform LCFS policy decisions. We considered two key fuel demand scenarios: (1) the Low Carbon Transportation scenario, reflecting the expected transition to low-carbon transportation in California over the next 15 years, and (2) the Driving to Zero scenario, featuring a significantly higher consumption of petroleum gasoline. In both...

Equitable Congestion Pricing

Fri, 12 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Congestion pricing can be an equitable policy strategy. This project consisted of a review of case studies of existing and planned congestion pricing strategies in North America (Vancouver, Seattle, and New York) and elsewhere (Singapore, London, Stockholm, and Gothenberg). The analysis shows that the most equitable congestion pricing systems include 1) a meaningful community-engagement processes to help policymakers identify equitable priorities; 2) pricing structures that strike a balance between efficiency and equity, while encouraging multi-modal travel; 3) clear plans for investing CP revenues to equalize the costs and benefits of congestion relief; and lastly, 4) a comprehensive data reporting plan to ensure equity goals are achieved. This project was developed to support the San Francisco County Transportation Authority in its efforts to conduct the Downtown Congestion Project.

Air Quality Impacts of Proposed Changes to Oregon’s Clean Fuels

Mon, 26 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Air Quality Impacts of Proposed Changes to Oregon’s Clean Fuels

Modeling 2030 LCFS Targets

Mon, 26 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Modeling 2030 LCFS Targets

Federal, State, and Local Governance of Automated Vehicles

Fri, 23 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Federal, State, and Local Governance of Automated Vehicles

Updated Fuel Portfolio Scenario Modeling to Inform 2024 Low Carbon Fuel Standard Rulemaking

Thu, 22 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Updated Fuel Portfolio Scenario Modeling to Inform 2024 Low Carbon Fuel Standard Rulemaking

Environmental Regulation Impacts on Freight Diversion

Wed, 11 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0000

The purpose of this whitepaper is to summarize research regarding how much freight might be diverted from California ports if port costs increase due to policy, especially environmental regulations. Although no publicly available study that examines the precise research question was identified, there is scientific literature examining freight diversion in response to generalized increases in costs. Findings suggest that freight diversion is unlikely to be a major consequence if California imposes port requirements designed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from maritime shipping, if such requirements result in modest cost increases (around $30/TEU1 or below) for shipping companies. However, this statement is based on studies of port demand elasticity that have not been recently updated.The potential diversion effect of proposed environmental policies should be examined on the basis of costs (in terms of dollars per TEU ) and elasticities of demand for specific ports. Future...

Improving Credit Quantification Under the LCFS: The Case for a Fractional Displacement Approach

Wed, 11 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Improving Credit Quantification Under the LCFS: The Case for a Fractional Displacement Approach

Fractional Displacement Crediting Under the LCFS

Wed, 21 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Fractional Displacement Crediting Under the LCFS

Industrial Decarbonization: Policy Pathwaysfor the Cement & Concrete Sector

Mon, 11 Jul 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Industrial Decarbonization: Policy Pathwaysfor the Cement & Concrete Sector

Improving the Transfer of Knowledge from Scientists to Policy Makers: Best Practices and New Opportunities to Engage

Thu, 23 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Many scientific projects are intended to inform public policy, however there are often difficulties transferring or translating research from scientists to policy makers. This paper reviews the existing literature on the quality of communication between scientists or field experts and policy makers and the challenges they face in conveying their research. A majority of best practice recommendations related to effective communication are rooted in anecdotal evidence and have not yet been subjected to systematic scientific study. This is, in part, because the nature of public policy makes data collection, randomization, or correcting for confounding factors extremely challenging. Studies that do put these recommendations to the test are most commonly fielded as national surveys of field experts and policy makers in comparative contexts. Few studies examine this subject in the United States, however, and most find mixed results as to the efficacy of well-accepted scientific communication...

Modeling Expected Air Quality Impacts of Oregon’s Proposed Expanded Clean Fuels Program

Thu, 28 Apr 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Modeling Expected Air Quality Impacts of Oregon’s Proposed Expanded Clean Fuels Program

California Automated Vehicle Policy Strategies

Wed, 25 Aug 2021 00:00:00 +0000

California Automated Vehicle Policy Strategies

Driving California’s Transportation Emissions to Zero

Thu, 22 Apr 2021 00:00:00 +0000

The purpose of this report is to provide a research-driven analysis of options that can put California on a pathway to achieve carbon-neutral transportation by 2045. The report comprises thirteen sections. Section 1 provides an overview of the major components of transportation systems and how those components interact. Section 2 discusses the impacts the COVID-19 pandemic has had on transportation. Section 3 discusses California’s current transportation-policy landscape. These three sections were previously published as a synthesis report. Section 4 analyzes the different carbon scenarios, focusing on “business as usual” (BAU) and Low Carbon (LC1). Section 5 provides an overview of key policy mechanisms to utilize in decarbonizing transportation. Section 6 is an analysis of the light-duty vehicle sector, section 7 is the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sectors, section 8 is reducing and electrifying vehicle miles traveled, and section 9 is an analysis of transportation fuels and...

Carbon Neutrality Study 1:Driving California’s Transportation Emissions to Zero

Tue, 27 Oct 2020 00:00:00 +0000

The purpose of this study overall is to explore the policy pathways to achieve a zero carbon transportation system in California by 2045. The purpose of this synthesis report is to describe the existing state of knowledge and policy related to energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector, especially in California. It is an interim product of the larger study, which will use this report as the baseline and policy context sections. The report comprises four sections. Section 1 provides an overview of the major components of transportation systems and how those components interact. Section 2 explores key underlying concepts in transportation, including equity, health, employment, and environmental justice (EJ). Section 3 discusses California’s current transportation-policy landscape. Section 4 analyzes projected social, environmental, and economic outcomes of transportation under a “business as usual (BAU)” scenario—i.e., a scenario with no significant...

Improving Data Reporting for State Renewable Portfolio Standards

Wed, 12 Aug 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Improving Data Reporting for State Renewable Portfolio Standards

Policy Pathways to TNC Electrification in California

Thu, 14 May 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Electrifying Transportation Network Company (TNC) vehicles is a high-impact strategy for reducing emissions. This issue paper synthesizes research related to electrification of TNC vehicles and considers policy pathways for addressing barriers to electric-vehicle (EV) use among TNC drivers.

Technology is Outpacing State Automated Vehicle Policy

Tue, 14 Apr 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Technology is Outpacing State Automated Vehicle Policy

The effects of equitability policies on the ZEV market: Evidence from California’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

Mon, 13 Apr 2020 00:00:00 +0000

California’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program (CVRP) is the largest zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) incentive program in the United States. This policy brief summarizes how changes to the CVRP incentive structure may have affected California's ZEV market.

Mobility Data Sharing: Challenges and Policy Recommendations

Mon, 23 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Dynamic and responsive transportation systems are a core pillar of equitable and sustainable communities. Achieving such systems requires comprehensive mobility data, or data that reports the movement of individuals and vehicles. Such data enable planners and policymakers to make informed decisions and enable researchers to model the effects of various transportation solutions. However, collecting mobility data also raises concerns about privacy and proprietary interests. This issue paper provides an overview of the top needs and challenges surrounding mobility data sharing and presents four relevant policy strategies: (1) Foster voluntary agreement among mobility providers for a set of standardized data specifications; (2) Develop clear data-sharing requirements designed for transportation network companies and other mobility providers; (3) Establish publicly held big-data repositories, managed by third parties, to securely hold mobility data and provide structured access by...

Mobility Data Sharing: Challenges and Policy Recommendations

Fri, 16 Aug 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Dynamic and responsive transportation systems are a core pillar of equitable and sustainable communities. Achieving such systems requires comprehensive mobility data, or data that reports the movement of individuals and vehicles. Such data enable planners and policymakers to make informed decisions and enable researchers to model the effects of various transportation solutions. However, collecting mobility data also raises concerns about privacy and proprietary interests. We argue that a middle-ground approach, in which data are shared in specific contexts and managed by a trusted third party, can capture the benefits of data sharing while minimizing risks. This brief provides an overview of the top needs and challenges surrounding mobility data sharing and presents relevant policy strategies.