http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification 720 https://escholarship.org/uc/uciecon_oapdeposits/rss Recent eScholarship items from Open Access Policy Deposits Wed, 1 Jul 2026 04:59:51 +0000 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4v0044t6 The primacy effect in elections refers to the tendency for voters to choose candidates listed first on a ballot more frequently than those listed lower. This phenomenon occurs across various electoral systems and can significantly impact election outcomes. Three main types of primacy effects exist: candidate primacy, party primacy, and list primacy. The strength of these effects depends on factors such as electoral system design, election characteristics, and voter attributes. Causes include limited voter knowledge, time constraints, and cognitive biases. Mitigation strategies involve randomizing ballot order and improving voter education. While measures can reduce its impact, the primacy effect remains a persistent influence in elections due to its roots in human behavior. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4v0044t6 Fri, 22 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Kaminski, Marek M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 Linder, Steven https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1f92b2wd Electoral reforms to first-past-the-post are often expected to consolidate party systems, but parties can instead coordinate without merging. We develop a partition-function framework distinguishing party consolidation from district-level coordination (“Duvergerian moves”), where allies strategically withdraw candidates across districts to maximize seats. We motivate the argument with the 2024 French legislative election, where coordinated withdrawals by NFP and Ensemble sharply reduced multi-candidate runoffs and helped block National Rally. We then study Poland’s Senate after the 2011 switch to single-member districts. Despite limited change in the effective number of parties, opposition parties progressively refined district coordination, culminating in near-complete one-candidate-per-district arrangements in 2019. We propose three coordination indices to measure the extent and effectiveness of such strategies, showing how coordination can reproduce majoritarian incentives... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1f92b2wd Fri, 22 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Flis, Jaroslaw Kaminski, Marek https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/05s8j2qw Before the parliamentary elections in 2018, the ruling party in Turkey, AKP, introduced a new apparentement provision in the electoral law, which allowed parties to make electoral alliances in order to meet the electoral threshold. We claim that this was an ex post mistake. AKP’s electoral engineering was motivated by their fear that its coalition partner, MHP, would not exceed the 10% threshold. While MHP actually met the threshold in the election, the opposition party, İP, failed to do so. Thanks to the new law, the votes for İP were not wasted, as would have happened under the old law. AKP less than 50% of seats and it consequently lost the parliamentary majority. Under the old electoral law, AKP would have won the majority. We use four alternative scenarios in order to estimate the seats and evaluate the political consequences of the unsuccessful electoral manipulation https://escholarship.org/uc/item/05s8j2qw Fri, 22 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Evci, Uğurcan Kamiński, Marek https://escholarship.org/uc/item/532817sx The overall objective for HyperXite 9 was to design and build a more robust, and reliable pod, capable of proving the feasibility of a high-speed transportation system. We are working to improve a linear induction motor as the pod's propulsion system. We are also designing and implementing a thermal cooling system to actively dissipate the heat generated by this propulsion system. Our team is comprised of the following 7 subteams: Static Structures, Braking &amp; Pneumatics, Dynamic Structures, Propulsion, Power Systems, Control Systems, and Outreach. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/532817sx Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Antony, Jacob Chin, Anthony Whaley, Christopher Hsing, Allen Eslava, Aaron Trauger, Andrew Diaz, Angel Licos, Angelina Chau, Brian Chung, Brigitte Kang, Calvin Parker, Crew Pena, Daniel Kim, Dillon Li, Harbour Ng, Jefferson Nguyen, Joshua Nguyen, Kaitlyn Haddad, Marc Stark, Max Veloya, Nicol Koo, Rachael Goja, Riya Mawlawi, Ryan Quach, Ryan Scholin, Rye Der, Sam Mehra, Syona Hwang, Taesung Ngo, Timothy Anand, Vrushang Ning, Oscar Solorzano, Diego Nomura, Kaydi Ko, Michelle https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7nm8914b Bargaining Under Liquidity Constraints: Nash vs. Kalai in the Laboratory https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7nm8914b Wed, 11 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Lebeau, Lucie Puzzello, Daniela https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4k0101c5 We experimentally examine whether and how the indexing strategy used by exchange traded funds (ETFs) affects the prices of the constituent assets. We study this issue in both the primary market (ETF creations and redemptions using bots as authorized participants) and the secondary market. The experiment includes three environments: (i) no ETF, (ii) an equal weighted ETF, and (iii) an unequal, market cap weighted ETF. We find that compared to the baseline of no ETFs, the introduction of ETFs significantly affects the relative prices of the constituent assets in the equal weighted ETF but not in the unequal weighted, market-cap based ETF. The introduction of ETFs also affects order imbalances and bid-ask spreads particularly for the asset in shortest supply. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4k0101c5 Wed, 11 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Bossaerts, Peter Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Rabanal, Jean Paul Rud, Olga A Yadav, Nitin https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3mx805bv The article explores the challenges of providing Western electoral system advice to emerg-ing democracies, drawing on experiences of Estonia and Poland in the format of a historical recollection of attempted electoral reforms and electoral engineering. It proposes a tentative five-phase sequence of attitudes toward foreign advice: initial acceptance of pre-existing rules, recognition of the need for reforms, attempts to reinvent electoral systems, eager adoption of foreign advice, and eventual reliance on local expertise with selective use of external input. Using Estonia as a case study, Taagepera details his role in introducing electoral system op-tions during the transition from Soviet rule, highlighting the shift from external influence to local politicking. Kaminski contrasts this with Poland, where the absence of expert electoral advice during the 1989 Round Table negotiations inadvertently facilitated Solidarity’s victory, underscoring the impact of electoral ignorance.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3mx805bv Wed, 22 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Taagepera, Rein Kaminski, Marek M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8sf6146h The article explores the challenges of providing Western electoral system advice to emerg-ing democracies, drawing on experiences of Estonia and Poland in the format of a historical recollection of attempted electoral reforms and electoral engineering. It proposes a tentative five-phase sequence of attitudes toward foreign advice: initial acceptance of pre-existing rules, recognition of the need for reforms, attempts to reinvent electoral systems, eager adoption of foreign advice, and eventual reliance on local expertise with selective use of external input. Using Estonia as a case study, Taagepera details his role in introducing electoral system op-tions during the transition from Soviet rule, highlighting the shift from external influence to local politicking. Kaminski contrasts this with Poland, where the absence of expert electoral advice during the 1989 Round Table negotiations inadvertently facilitated Solidarity’s victory, underscoring the impact of electoral ignorance.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8sf6146h Tue, 14 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Taagepera, Rein Kaminski, Marek M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8g9612bg M.in. Lubelszczyzna. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8g9612bg Tue, 14 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kamiński, Marek M Szum, Ernest https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8144q3kf GRY WIĘŹNIÓW: PODZIAŁ RÓL SPOŁECZNYCH W INSTYTUCJI TOTALNEJ https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8144q3kf Tue, 14 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kaminski, Marek https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7397h5hm Time and again, changes to the electoral system have been driven by the vested interests of political players primarily interested in maximizing their gains, measured by the number of seats filled in parliament. History knows many cases in which such reforms were counterpro-ductive and destabilized the functioning of the political system. This raises the question of whether it is possible to reform the electoral system in a way that not only does not result in a chaotic shift in the balance of power on the political scene but, above all, serves to improve the functioning of democratic institutions. This article discusses the implications for the party system of the 1993 reform of New Zealand’s electoral law for the House of Representatives, involving a departure after 138 years from a plurality system to a mixed-member proportion-al system (MMP). The New Zealand case demonstrates that even a revolutionary change in the electoral system does not necessarily lead to a profound and... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7397h5hm Tue, 14 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Salamon, Jeremiasz https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6s8076f2 Jak komuniści mogli zachować władzę po Okrągłym Stole. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6s8076f2 Tue, 14 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kaminski, Marek https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5x1201nr "The book describes the extraordinary life of Józef Korycki (1934-1986), who was dubbed "Public Enemy #1" by the authorities in communist Poland in 1982, but beloved by the locals in his home region of Podlasie, who compared him to Janosik ... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5x1201nr Tue, 14 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kaminski, Marek https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 Szum, Ernest https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5b43v6p2 Senat RP - Większościowe reguły i jednomandatowe wyjątki https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5b43v6p2 Tue, 14 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kaminski, Marek https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/39s6t5g1 Prometeizm Janosika Podlaskiego w relacjach przyjaciół. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/39s6t5g1 Tue, 14 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kaminski, Marek https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 Szum, Ernest https://escholarship.org/uc/item/95v259bb <p>FIFA's ranking of national soccer teams is plagued with paradoxes. One surprising paradox is a dramatic underrating of the hosts of main tournaments. The hosts, who are absent from the preliminaries, for a long time, play only friendlies that award few points. Three models estimate the magnitude of the resulting “Host Effect” at 14.1-16.7 positions. Such an estimate goes against the intuition that a large investment in hosting a tournament should result in the improvement of the host team’s standing. Host’s low ranking decreases the interest in the tournament and may result in a major loss of advertisement revenue.</p> https://escholarship.org/uc/item/95v259bb Wed, 10 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kaminski, Marek https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6s8861fs We seek to assess how informational challenges in open-list proportional representation (OLPR) systems contribute to higher incidence of “faulty” votes compared to majoritarian systems. We define three types of faulty votes: spoilt votes and votes attributable to ballot primacy or list primacy effects. Using data from simultaneously held Polish OLPR and SMD local elections, we find significantly higher rates of faulty votes in OLPR systems than in SMD systems—an estimated 12.87% more eligible voters cast a faulty vote under OLPR. The difference is even more stark when calculated as a percentage of actual voters, with over 25% more faulty votes under OLPR. Our findings suggest that the increased complexity of OLPR systems leads to lower-quality votes. This “PR blow” is similar in magnitude but opposite in direction to the well-documented “PR boost” in turnout. We offer policy recommendations to mitigate faulty votes in OLPR systems, including simplifying ballots, using smaller... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6s8861fs Wed, 10 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Flis, Jarosław Kaminski, Marek M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2vf4358s Abstract: This study explores the evolution of the Polish prison subculture before and after the political upheaval of 1989, marking the transition from communism to a more democratic and open society. It examines how these systemic changes influenced the informal hierarchies and social structures within prisons. Under the communist regime, prisons were spaces of severe repression and control, where the inmate population was strictly managed through a combination of intense surveillance and punitive measures. Inmate labor was exploited, and any form of dissent was brutally suppressed, fostering a distinct subculture among prisoners known as ‘grypsmen.‘ The fall of communism brought significant reforms to the penal system, aiming to improve conditions and reduce inmate exploitation. However, the remnants of old subcultures persisted, adapting to the new sociopolitical environment. This paper delves into the continuity and transformation of these subcultures, shedding... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2vf4358s Wed, 10 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kaminski, Marek M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 Miszewski, Kamil https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9tk2s9fw I analyze institutions of prison subculture that mitigate potential violent confrontations among inmates, in contrast to Hobbesian-Zimbardo default spontaneous violence. The games that are relatively rarely played in prison are Chicken and other violent confrontation games. Incoming rookie inmates are subject to initiation tests that allocate them into different subcultural groups, which signals their toughness and disincentivizes fighting. Most experienced inmates develop the eristic skills utilizing prison argot, use informal conflict adjudicators, and fake aggression toward rookies. All inmates form defensive coalitions. Finally, when inmates commit self-injuries, they follow well-rehearsed protocols to minimize the damage to their bodies and to maximize the impression made on the authorities. The secret knowledge of the associated rules, tricks, and cons is passed down over generations of prisoners through informal schooling. The material for this study comes from two Polish... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9tk2s9fw Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kaminski, Marek M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9dr6x447 The article examines the decision-making components of Jane Austen's six major novels as reconstructed in Michael Chwe's book and his argument that Austen was a precursor of game theory. In her novels, Austen describes an abundance of strategic situations in the mating process within the British higher classes. Social constraints made mating within this world a tough game due to harsh punishments for failure, especially for women, and severe limitation on signaling interest or sympathy. Austen cleverly investigates this environment and reconstructs many aspects of strategic behavior that have their counterparts in formal concepts of game and decision theory. While she hasn't made contributions to theory per se, she deserves being named a precursor of applied strategic thinking and an expert on a particular strategically sophisticated social environment. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9dr6x447 Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kamiński, Marek M https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7mg4c754 I consider a model of multiple winner elections with several types of spoilers. In single-office elections, a “classic” spoiler turns a winner into a non-winner and a non-winner into a winner. Such spoilers rarely appear in multi-office elections. In such elections, spoilers include a “Kingmaker”, who turns a non-winner into a winner; a “Kingslayer”, who turns a winner into a non-winner; a “Valuegobbler”, who subtracts from some competitor more seats than it receives; and “Selfspoilers”, who may be hurt by competing separately rather than creating an electoral coalition. Various strategic spoilers, such as fake parties, are possible as well. I look for spoilers in eight Polish parliamentary elections that have taken place since the fall of communism in 1989. In two elections, the consequences of spoilers were massive. In 1993, multiple spoilers on the right helped the two post-communist parties return to power, slow down decommunization and create strong institutional obstacles... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7mg4c754 Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kamiński, Marek M https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5gn0h6tv We study the primacy effects that occur when voters cast their votes because a candidate or party is listed first on a ballot. In the elections that we analyzed, there are three potential types of such effects that might occur when voters vote for (1) the first candidate listed on the ballot in single-member district (SMD) elections (candidate primacy); (2) the first party listed on the ballot in open-list proportional representation (OLPR) elections (party primacy); or (3) the first candidate on a party list in OLPR elections (list primacy). We estimated the party primacy effect (2) and established that there was no interaction between (2) and (3). A party primacy effect is especially difficult to estimate because parties’ positions on ballots are typically fixed in all multi-member districts (MMDs) and it is impossible to separate the first-position “bonus” from a party’s normal electoral performance. A rare natural experiment allowed us to estimate the primacy party bonus between... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5gn0h6tv Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Flis, Jarosław Kaminski, Marek M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4zj521s0 I investigate the paradoxes associated with the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) point-based ranking of national soccer teams. The ranking has been plagued with paradoxes that incentivize teams to avoid playing friendly matches, i.e., matches that are not part of any official FIFA tournament or preliminaries, and applying other counterintuitive strategies. The most spectacular paradox was the dramatic underrating of the hosts of major tournaments. For a long time, host teams, which were absent from preliminary matches, would play only friendly matches that awarded few points. Here, I present three models that estimate the magnitude of the resulting “host effect” at 14.2–16 positions. Such an estimate counteracts the intuition that a large investment in hosting a tournament should result in an improvement in the host team’s standing. However, as discussed here, a given host’s low ranking could decrease interest in the tournament, and likely result in a major... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4zj521s0 Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kaminski, Marek M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4xg2n4gr Mixed electoral systems, also known as mixed-member systems, combine two common types of electoral systems: majoritarian single-member district (SMD) and proportional representation (PR), aiming to blend their strengths. In these systems, majoritarian rules allocate a portion of seats, while another portion is assigned by PR in multiple-member districts (MMD). Characterized by dual electoral structures, similar numbers of seats in both tiers, nationwide application, and equal MP status, these systems seek to balance competing normative advantages but vary significantly based on vote and seat linkage mechanisms. Initially hailed as a potential “best of both worlds” solution, as seen in Germany’s 1949 system and adopted by about 30 countries by 2025, mixed systems have revealed complex challenges and unintended consequences. While issues differ across contexts, comparative analysis of these systems highlights that careful design, informed by global experiences, can mitigate pitfalls,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4xg2n4gr Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Flis, Jarosław Grofman, Bernard Kaminski, Marek M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3nm8d2q2 Backward induction (BI) was one of the earliest methods developed for solving finite sequential games with perfect information. It proved to be especially useful in the context of Tom Schelling's ideas of credible versus incredible threats. BI can be also extended to solve complex games that include an infinite number of actions or an infinite number of periods. However, some more complex empirical or experimental predictions remain dramatically at odds with theoretical predictions obtained by BI. The primary example of such a troublesome game is Centipede. The problems appear in other long games with sufficiently complex structure. BI also shares the problems of subgame perfect equilibrium and fails to eliminate certain unreasonable Nash equilibria. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3nm8d2q2 Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kamiński, Marek M https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1zk7v40j In the prison subculture, informal institutions have spontaneously evolved to mitigate levels of violence and potential confrontations between inmates. First, rookies (new prisoners) are subjected to initiation tests, which try to measure their rigidity (bravery) and cunning (intelligence) and assign to the appropriate subcultural group. Membership in a group of grypsmen signals the rigidity of prisoners and discourages fighting between the grypsmen or the resistance from members of lower groups. Experienced prisoners perfect eristics withinthe frameworkofprisonargot, whichallowsthemtoturnrealconflictsinto verbal duels, use informal arbitration and learn to pretend aggression towards freshmen. All prisoners are trying to join the defensive coalitions. Inmates also perform spectacular self-injuries in accordance with secret procedures, faking desperation, but in fact minimizing damage to health and trying to get some benefits from the prosecutor or prison authorities. The collected... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1zk7v40j Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kamiński, Marek https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0m371279 The uniqueness of Poland’s experience with the 2020 coronavirus lays in the interplay of two factors: the decisive governmental response to the pandemic, and the overlap of the pandemic with the country’s presidential election scheduled on May 10, 2020. The government’s fast reaction, combined with the citizens’ discipline, resulted in the suppression of the virus’s spread. The ratings of the current President Duda skyrocketed well above 50% needed for re-election in the first round. However, the expectation was that they would be going down with the pandemic and lockdown fatigue. For almost two months, the government tried to organize the elections under the normal schedule while the opposition tried to block them. Finally, the opposition won, and the elections were rescheduled on June 28, with the President Duda’s ratings substantially lower. Nevertheless, in the runoff on July 11, Duda won. Our conclusion goes against the common opinion that electoral engineering is always... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0m371279 Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Flis, Jarosław Kaminski, Marek https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0b02m0kd I consider a model of multiple winner elections with several types of spoilers. In single-office elections, a “classic” spoiler turns a winner into a non-winner and a non-winner into a winner. Such spoilers rarely appear in multi-office elections. In such elections, spoilers include a “Kingmaker”, who turns a non-winner into a winner; a “Kingslayer”, who turns a winner into a non-winner; a “Valuegobbler”, who subtracts from some competitor more seats than it receives; and “Selfspoilers”, who may be hurt by competing separately rather than creating an electoral coalition. Various strategic spoilers, such as fake parties, are possible as well. I look for spoilers in eight Polish parliamentary elections that have taken place since the fall of communism in 1989. In two elections, the consequences of spoilers were massive. In 1993, multiple spoilers on the right helped the two post-communist parties return to power, slow down decommunization and create strong institutional obstacles... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0b02m0kd Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kamiński, MM https://escholarship.org/uc/item/06z549qm Nash Equilibrium in a Pub (in Polish) https://escholarship.org/uc/item/06z549qm Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Kaminski, M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/87d6m3sr We test the buffer stock model of savings behavior using a three-period intertemporal model. In one treatment, liquidity in the second period is constrained (borrowing not possible), while the unconstrained treatment has no such constraint. The buffer stock model predicts that a second-period liquidity constraint increases first-period savings. We also vary the variance of stochastic income (high or low) in a (Formula presented.) design. While we find no evidence for the predicted liquidity constraint effect, most other predictions hold, for example, income variance effects. Observed departures can be explained by some combination of debt aversion, cognitive heterogeneity, and/or&nbsp;learning. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/87d6m3sr Thu, 14 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Orland, Andreas https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3g64x1r2 The Impact of ETF Index Inclusion on Stock Prices https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3g64x1r2 Thu, 14 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Friedman, Daniel Rabanal, Jean Paul Rud, Olga https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0ms2b1bh We report a laboratory experiment examining how demand for exchange-traded fund (ETF) index products affects the prices and trading volume of assets. We compare an environment where the ETF index includes all assets against an environment where a redundant asset is excluded from the index. We find that (i) subjects place significant value on the ETF index asset beyond the value of its constituent assets; (ii) there is a substantial index premium for included assets; and (iii) the index premium persists even when short selling is permitted. The price increases of the constituent assets and of the ETF itself suggest that ETF products can distort markets to some degree. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0ms2b1bh Thu, 14 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Friedman, Daniel Rabanal, Jean Paul Rud, Olga A https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4vd9b0ps Bargaining is widely used in monetary, labor and finance models to determine terms of trade. The chosen bargaining solution can matter for welfare analysis, for example when agents are liquidity constrained. Here we report on an experiment in which buyers and sellers engage in semi-structured bargaining to determine the terms of trade with the aim of evaluating the empirical relevance of two bargaining solutions, the generalized Nash bargaining solution and Kalai's proportional bargaining solution. These bargaining solutions predict different outcomes when buyers are constrained in their money holdings. We first use the case when the buyer is not liquidity constrained to estimate the bargaining power parameter, which we find to be equal to 1/2. Then, imposing liquidity constraints on buyers, we find strong evidence in support of the Kalai proportional solution. Our findings have policy implications, e.g., for the welfare cost of inflation in search-theoretic models of money. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4vd9b0ps Wed, 13 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Lebeau, Lucie Puzzello, Daniela https://escholarship.org/uc/item/22w7467m We study indefinitely lived assets in experimental markets and find that the traded prices of these assets are on average about 40% of the risk-neutral fundamental value. Neither uncertainty about the value of total dividend payments nor horizon uncertainty about the duration of trade can account for this low traded price. An Epstein-Zin recursive preference specification that models the dynamic realization of dividend payments, combined with either probability weighting or subjects' heterogeneous risk attitudes, can rationalize the low traded prices observed in our indefinitely lived asset market. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/22w7467m Wed, 13 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Jiang, Janet Hua Xie, Huan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1sz6b2xx We report on an experiment testing the empirical relevance of least squares (LS) learning, a common way of modelling how individuals learn a rational expectations equilibrium (REE). Subjects are endowed with the correct perceived law of motion (PLM) for a price level variable they are seeking to forecast, but do not know the true parameterization of that PLM. Instead, they must choose and can adjust the parameters of this PLM over 50 periods. Consistent with the E-stability of the REE in the model studied, 97.8% of subjects achieve weak convergence to the REE in terms of their price level predictions. However, the number of participants that can be characterized as least squares learners via the adjustments they make to the parameterization of the PLM over time depends on properties of the data generating process of the dependent and independent variables. Participants learn the REE faster, and behave more like least squares learners when there is greater variance in the independent... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1sz6b2xx Wed, 13 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Bao, Te Dai, Yun Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0761r2k3 We explore how information ambiguity and traders’ attitudes toward such ambiguity affect expectations and asset prices under three different market institutions. Specifically, we test a theoretical prediction that information ambiguity will lead market prices to overreact to bad news and underreact to good news. We find that such an asymmetric reaction exists and is strongest in individual prediction markets. It occurs to a lesser extent in single price call markets. It is weakest of all in double auction markets, in which buyers’ asymmetric reaction to good/bad news is cancelled out by the opposite asymmetric reaction of sellers. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0761r2k3 Wed, 13 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Bao, Te Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Zhu, Jiahua https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7fq900vd We propose a new electoral system, Mixed Local-Proportional (MLP), that reconciles reforms beneficial for the polity with existing political interests. The MLP system maintains the current distribution of seats among parties while addressing problematic issues with the existing Open-List Proportional Representation (OLPR) system by engineering OLPR’s intra-party properties. Key features include dividing districts into subdistricts with plurality voting, allocating proportional seats using a restricted Jefferson-D’Hondt method, and reducing the number of candidates per party. We explain the MLP system’s mechanics, simulate election results based on recent election data, and discuss variants. Expected political consequences include improved territorial representation, reduced intra-party competition, reduced voter cognitive overload, and stronger ties between voters and MPs. The Polish Parliamentary Committee on Electoral Reform accepted the proposal for further processing. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7fq900vd Wed, 18 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Flis, Jarosław Kaminski, Marek M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-0541 Salamon, Jeremiasz https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7g98r284 BackgroundAcute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a leading cause of mortality, characterized by myocardial ischemia that induces cardiomyocyte apoptosis and subsequent cardiac dysfunction. Sirtuin 1 (Sirt1) has emerged as a key regulator of cell survival and apoptosis, particularly under hypoxic conditions.MethodsAn AMI animal model was established via ligation of the left anterior descending (LAD) coronary artery. Gene expression in the infarcted region was evaluated at various time points. Sirt1 overexpression and control lentivirus were administered to the peri-infarct region of mice heart. After LAD ligation, assessment on myocardial infarct size, cardiac function, and cardiomyocyte apoptosis were performed. In vitro, primary mouse cardiomyocytes subjected to hypoxia were analyzed for gene expression, while interactions among Sirt1, Phd3, and Hif-1α were explored using diverse treatment approaches.ResultsA significant reduction in Sirt1 and Phd3 expression, along with an increase... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7g98r284 Thu, 24 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Chen, Yafen Shan, Shuyao Xue, Qiqi Ren, Yan Wu, Qihong Chen, Jiawei https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6116-7232 Yang, Ke Cao, Jiumei https://escholarship.org/uc/item/43n0g6xg Invention and Evolution of Correlated Conventions https://escholarship.org/uc/item/43n0g6xg Wed, 23 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Herrmann, Daniel A Skyrms, Brian https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6961-9974 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9fp9h85f The COVID-19 crisis poses new policy challenges and has spurred new research agendas in public economics. In this article, we selectively reflect on how the field of public economics has been shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss several areas where more research is necessary. We highlight major changes and inequalities in the labor market and K-12 education, in addition to discussing how technological change creates new challenges for the taxation of income and consumption. We discuss various policy responses to these challenges and the role of fiscal federalism in the context of worldwide crises. Finally, we summarize the key issues discussed at the 2021 International Institute of Public Finance Congress and the papers published in this special issue. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9fp9h85f Fri, 11 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Agrawal, David R https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8480-1849 Bütikofer, Aline https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5hv4v8fj As the COVID-19 pandemic has shaped public policies and government finances, it has also influenced the topics that public finance economists are researching. Because the 2020 International Institute of Public Finance Congress featured papers that were submitted prior to the start of the pandemic, the Congress allows us to reflect on the state of research prior to the pandemic’s shock to both fiscal policies and our worldview. In this article, the Editors of International Tax and Public Finance reflect on interesting papers that were presented at this internationally representative conference in public economics. The exercise provides insight on where the field of public economics was heading prior to the pandemic and will provide a yardstick to see how the field evolves in the coming years&nbsp;afterward. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5hv4v8fj Fri, 11 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Agrawal, David R https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8480-1849 Davies, Ronald B LaLumia, Sara Riedel, Nadine Scharf, Kimberley https://escholarship.org/uc/item/87j0k5rh From the Great Depression to the Great Recession: A Model‐Based Ranking of U.S. Recessions https://escholarship.org/uc/item/87j0k5rh Wed, 17 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Liu, Rui Jeliazkov, Ivan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0ps8v3q1 The information processing literature provides a wealth of laboratory evidence on the effects that the choice task and individual characteristics have on the extent to which consumers engage in alternative-based versus attribute-based information processing. Less attention has been paid to studying how the processing pattern at the point of purchase is associated with a consumer's propensity to buy in shopping settings. To understand this relationship, we formulate a discrete choice model and perform formal model comparisons to distinguish among several possible dependence structures. We consider models involving an existing measure of information processing, PATTERN; a latent variable version of this measure; and several new refinements and generalizations. Analysis of a unique data set of 895 shoppers on a popular electronics website supports the latent variable specification and provides validation for several hypotheses and modeling components. We find a positive relationship... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0ps8v3q1 Wed, 17 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Mintz, Ofer Currim, Imran S Jeliazkov, Ivan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/07h0g04r For over three decades, vector autoregressions have played a central role in empirical macroeconomics. These models are general, can capture sophisticated dynamic behavior, and can be extended to include features such as structural instability, time-varying parameters, dynamic factors, threshold-crossing behavior, and discrete outcomes. Building upon growing evidence that the assumption of linearity may be undesirable in modeling certain macroeconomic relationships, this article seeks to add to recent advances in VAR modeling by proposing a nonparametric dynamic model for multivariate time series. In this model, the problems of modeling and estimation are approached from a hierarchical Bayesian perspective. The article considers the issues of identification, estimation, and model comparison, enabling nonparametric VAR (or NPVAR) models to be fit efficiently by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and compared to parametric and semiparametric alternatives by marginal likelihoods... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/07h0g04r Wed, 17 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Jeliazkov, Ivan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kf362mq Recent evidence suggests that agents may base their forecasts for macroeconomic variables mainly on their personal life experiences. We connect this behavior to the concept of constant-gain learning (CGL) in macroeconomics. Our approach incorporates both heterogeneity in the life cycle via the perpetual youth model and learning from experience (LfE) into a linear expectations model where agents are born and die with some probability every period. For LfE, agents employ a decreasing-gain learning (DGL) model using data only from their own lifetimes. While agents are using DGL individually, we show that in the aggregate, expectations follow an approach related to CGL, where the gain is now tied to the probabilities of birth and death. We provide a precise characterization of the relationship between CGL and our model of perpetual youth learning (PYL) and show that PYL can well approximate CGL while pinning down the gain parameter with demographic data. Calibrating the model to U.S.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kf362mq Fri, 12 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Shin, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/42k456kb (Re-) Inventing the Traffic Light: Designing Recommendation Devices for Play of Strategic Games https://escholarship.org/uc/item/42k456kb Fri, 12 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Anufriev, Mikhail Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Panchenko, Valentyn Young, Benjamin https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0d44x3q9 We report on a laboratory experiment testing the predictions of the Diamond–Mortensen–Pissarides (DMP) search-and-matching model, which is a workhorse, decentralized model of unemployment and the labor market. We focus on the job vacancy posting problem that firms face in the DMP model. We explore the model's comparative statics predictions concerning variations in the separation rate, the vacancy posting cost, and the firm's surplus earned per employee. Across all treatments, we find strong evidence for an inverse relationship between vacancies and unemployment, consistent with the Beveridge curve. We also find that the results of our various comparative statics exercises are in-line with the predictions of the theory. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0d44x3q9 Wed, 5 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Jenkins, Brian C https://escholarship.org/uc/item/014512rb Credit default swaps (CDS) played an important role in the financial crisis of 2008 leading to calls for regulation. Here, we seek to understand the impact of a CDS regulation that restricts the possibility to hold naked CDS. We use a controlled laboratory experiment analyzing CDS pricing in a bond market subject to default risk. Our results show that the regulation achieves the goal of increasing the use of CDS for hedging purposes while reducing the use of CDS for speculation. This success does not come at the expense of lower initial public offering (IPO) prices for the bonds or worse pricing of bonds or CDS in the secondary market. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/014512rb Wed, 5 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Weber, Matthias Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Schram, Arthur https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9pm6h1j0 Despite a growing understanding that the social determinants of health have an impact on body mass index (BMI), the role of fatherhood on young men's BMI is understudied. This longitudinal study examines BMI in young men over time as they transition from adolescence into fatherhood in a nationally representative sample. Data from all four waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health supported a 20-year longitudinal analysis of 10,253 men beginning in 1994. A "fatherhood-year" data set was created and changes in BMI were examined based on fatherhood status (nonfather, nonresident father, resident father), fatherhood years, and covariates. Though age is positively associated with BMI over all years for all men, comparing nonresident and resident fathers with nonfathers reveals different trajectories based on fatherhood status. Entrance into fatherhood is associated with an increase in BMI trajectory for both nonresident and resident fathers, while nonfathers exhibit... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9pm6h1j0 Sun, 25 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Garfield, Craig F Duncan, Greg https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 Gutina, Anna Rutsohn, Joshua McDade, Thomas W Adam, Emma K Coley, Rebekah Levine Chase-Lansdale, P Lindsay https://escholarship.org/uc/item/96x6d6j7 PURPOSE: With a growing focus on the importance of men's reproductive health, including preconception health, the ways in which young men's knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs (KAB) predict their reproductive paths are understudied. To determine if reproductive KAB predicts fatherhood status, timing and residency (living with child or not). METHODS: Reproductive KAB and fatherhood outcomes were analyzed from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, a 20-year, nationally representative study of individuals from adolescence into adulthood. Four measures of reproductive KAB were assessed during adolescence in waves I and II. A generalized linear latent and mixed model predicted future fatherhood status (nonfather, resident/nonresident father, adolescent father) and timing while controlling for other socio-demographic variables. RESULTS: Of the 10,253 men, 3,425 were fathers (686 nonresident/2,739 resident) by wave IV. Higher risky sexual behavior scores significantly increased... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/96x6d6j7 Sun, 25 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Garfield, Craig F Duncan, Greg https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 Peters, Sarah Rutsohn, Joshua McDade, Thomas W Adam, Emma K Coley, Rebekah Levine Chase-Lansdale, Patricia Lindsay https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2dk0g9zd BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Rates of paternal depression range from 5% to 10% with a growing body of literature describing the harm to fathers, children, and families. Changes in depression symptoms over the life course, and the role of social factors, are not well known. This study examines associations with changes in depression symptoms during the transition to fatherhood for young fathers and whether this association differed by key social factors. METHODS: We combined all 4 waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to support a 23-year longitudinal analysis of 10 623 men and then created a "fatherhood-year" data set, regressing age-adjusted standardized depressive symptoms scores on fatherhood status (nonresidence/residence), fatherhood-years, and covariates to determine associations between Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale scores and fatherhood life course intervals. RESULTS: Depressive symptom scores reported at the entry into fatherhood... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2dk0g9zd Sun, 25 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Garfield, Craig F Duncan, Greg https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 Rutsohn, Joshua McDade, Thomas W Adam, Emma K Coley, Rebekah Levine Chase-Lansdale, P Lindsay https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6dn158dd The effective liquidity supply of the economy-the weighted-sum of all assets that serve as media of exchange-matters for interest rates and unemployment. We formalize this idea by adding an over-the-counter market with collateralized trades to the Mortensen-Pissarides model. An increase in public liquidity through a higher supply of real government bonds raises the real interest rate, crowding out private liquidity and increasing unemployment. If unemployment is inefficiently high, keeping liquidity scarce can be socially optimal. A liquidity crisis affecting the acceptability of private assets as collateral widens the rate-of-return difference between private and public liquidity, also increasing unemployment. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6dn158dd Fri, 16 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Rocheteau, Guillaume Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio https://escholarship.org/uc/item/22n3v3tc I present a model of offshoring decisions with heterogeneous firms, random adjustment costs, and endogenous markups. The model proposes a tractable probabilistic framework that goes beyond the conventional view of self-selection of more productive firms into offshoring. By characterizing the offshoring decision as a lumpy investment decision subject to heterogeneous adjustment costs, the model obtains an inverted-U relationship between firm-level productivity and the probability of offshoring. A tougher competitive environment (due, for example, to trade liberalization in final goods) has two opposing effects on firm-level offshoring likelihood: the conventional selection effect - accounting for the negative effect of competition on offshoring profits - and an escape-competition effect - accounting for the effect of competition on the opportunity cost of offshoring. In addition, the model highlights strong complementarities between offshoring and exporting decisions. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/22n3v3tc Fri, 16 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Rodriguez Lopez, Jose Antonio https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8gf0v6np OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of provider choice policies on workers' compensation medical and indemnity costs. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Pooled cross-sectional analysis of administrative claims records for workers with work-related injuries primarily in 2007-2010 across 25 states (n&nbsp;=&nbsp;4,489,729). STUDY DESIGN: We used linear and quantile regression analyses to evaluate differences in claim costs (medical and indemnity) based on whether policies give employers or injured workers control over the choice of provider. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We find no difference in average medical costs by provider choice policies, although a distributional analysis indicates higher developed medical costs for the costliest back injury cases in states where workers control provider choice. The evidence for indemnity costs is similar, although the point estimates also indicate (statistically insignificantly) higher average costs when policies give workers more control of the choice of... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8gf0v6np Sat, 10 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Neumark, David Savych, Bogdan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0w03p9nr We study the relationships between ageist stereotypes - as reflected in the language used in job ads - and age discrimination in hiring, exploiting the text of job ads and differences in callbacks to older and younger job applicants from a resume (correspondence study) field experiment (Neumark, Burn, and Button, 2019). Our analysis uses computational linguistics and machine learning methods to examine, in a field-experiment setting, ageist stereotypes that might underlie age discrimination in hiring. In so doing, we develop methods and a framework for analyzing textual data, highlighting the usefulness of various computer science techniques for empirical economics research. We find evidence that language related to stereotypes of older workers sometimes predicts discrimination against older workers. For men, we find evidence that age stereotypes about all three categories we consider - health, personality, and skill - predict age discrimination, and for women, age stereotypes... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0w03p9nr Sat, 10 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Burn, Ian Button, Patrick Munguia Corella, Luis Neumark, David https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0jj4v77k We conduct a resume field experiment in all U.S. states to study how state laws protecting older workers from age discrimination affect age discrimination in hiring for retail sales jobs. We relate the difference in callback rates between old and young applicants to state variation in age and disability discrimination laws. These laws could boost hiring of older applicants, although they could have the unintended consequence of deterring hiring if they increase termination costs. In our preferred estimates that are weighted to be representative of the workforce, we find evidence that there is less discrimination against older men and women in states where age discrimination law allows larger damages, and more limited evidence that there is lower discrimination against older women in states where disability discrimination law allows larger damages. Our clearest result is that these laws do not have the unintended consequence of lowering callbacks for older workers. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0jj4v77k Sat, 10 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Neumark, David Burn, Ian Button, Patrick Chehras, Nanneh https://escholarship.org/uc/item/19w9r0mp Panel discussion of: Adverse effects of place-based policies? https://escholarship.org/uc/item/19w9r0mp Fri, 9 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Neumark, David https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0sw052m9 We study the relationships between ageist stereotypes - as reflected in the language used in job ads - and age discrimination in hiring, exploiting the text of job ads and differences in callbacks to older and younger job applicants from a resume (correspondence study) field experiment (Neumark, Burn, and Button, 2019). Our analysis uses computational linguistics and machine learning methods to examine, in a field-experiment setting, ageist stereotypes that might underlie age discrimination in hiring. In so doing, we develop methods and a framework for analyzing textual data, highlighting the usefulness of various computer science techniques for empirical economics research. We find evidence that language related to stereotypes of older workers sometimes predicts discrimination against older workers. For men, we find evidence that age stereotypes about all three categories we consider - health, personality, and skill - predict age discrimination, and for women, age stereotypes... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0sw052m9 Fri, 9 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Burn, Ian Button, Patrick Munguia Corella, Luis Neumark, David https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8x1804qk We develop a framework for studying the introduction of a new payment method in a controlled laboratory environment, where consumers (buyers) and merchants (sellers) can learn to coordinate their adoption decisions over time. The underlying game exhibits network adoption effects as emphasized by the theoretical literature. We elicit players’ beliefs about the adoption decisions of the other side of the market so that we can directly test for network effects. We investigate how the additional fixed cost of adopting the new payment method, relative to its savings on per transaction costs, affects merchant's decisions to adopt the new payment method and how that in turn affects buyer's adoption decisions. We find that a low fixed cost favors quick adoption of the new payment method by all participants, while for a sufficiently high fixed cost, merchants gradually learn to reject the new payment method. We also find strong evidence of network effects and that the fixed costs are important... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8x1804qk Wed, 17 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Arifovic, Jasmina Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Jiang, Janet Hua https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5vd460tr Regression discontinuity models are commonly used to nonparametrically identify and estimate a local average treatment effect (LATE).We show that the derivative of the treatment effect with respect to the running variable at the cutoff, referred to as the treatment effect derivative (TED), is nonparametrically identified, easily estimated, and has implications for testing external validity and extrapolating the estimated LATE away from the cutoff. Given a local policy invariance assumption, we further show this TED equals the change in the treatment effect that would result from a marginal change in the threshold, which we call the marginal threshold treatment effect (MTTE). We apply these results to Goodman (2008), who estimates the effect of a scholarship program on college choice. MTTE in this case identifies how this treatment effect would change if the test score threshold to qualify for a scholarship were changed, even though no such change in threshold is actually observed. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5vd460tr Wed, 17 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Dong, Yingying Lewbel, Arthur https://escholarship.org/uc/item/58z7c35t We experimentally test a model of public good bargaining due to Bowen et al. (Am Econ Rev 104:2941–2974, 2014) and compare two institutions governing bargaining over public good allocations. The setup involves two parties negotiating the distribution of a fixed endowment between a public good and each party’s individual account. Parties attach either high or low weight to the public good and the difference in these weights reflects the degree of polarization. Under discretionary bargaining rules, the status quo default allocation to the group account (in the event of disagreement) is zero while under the mandatory bargaining rule it is equal to the level last agreed upon. The mandatory rule thus creates a dynamic relationship between current decisions and future payoffs, and our experiment tests the theoretical prediction that the efficient level of public good is provided under the mandatory rule while the level of public good funding is at a sub-optimal level under the discretionary... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/58z7c35t Wed, 17 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Kim, SunTak https://escholarship.org/uc/item/43d903ts We provide some theory and experimental evidence on contests with entry fees. In our setup, players must simultaneously decide whether or not to pay a fee to enter a contest and the amount they wish to bid should they choose to enter the contest. In a general n-bidder game, we show that the addition of contest entry fees increases the contest designer’s expected revenue and that there is a unique revenue maximizing entry fee. In an experimental test of this theory we vary both the entry fee and the number of bidders. We find over-bidding for all entry fees and bidder group sizes, n. We also find under-participation in the contest for low entry fees and over-participation for higher entry fees. In the case of 3 bidders, the revenue maximizing entry fee for the contest designer is found to be significantly greater than the theoretically optimal entry fee. We offer some possible explanations for these departures from theoretical predictions. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/43d903ts Wed, 17 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Matros, Alexander Valencia, Zehra https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3zj4k802 Individual evolutionary learning in repeated beauty contest games https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3zj4k802 Wed, 17 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Anufriev, Mikhail Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Panchenko, Valentyn https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3x30v73p Stock splits and reverse splits often result in short-term abnormal returns even though such split events do not change any fundamental factors affecting the valuation of a firm's stock. In this paper we report an experiment designed to better understand market reactions to stock splits and reverse splits. In one treatment, two assets have increasing fundamental values, and one asset is subject to a 2-for-1 share split while the other asset is not. In a second treatment, the fundamental values of both assets are decreasing, and one asset is subject to a 1-for-2 reverse split while the other asset is not. We find that in both cases, share prices do not fully adjust to changes in fundamental values per share following a split announcement. We provide evidence that the incomplete adjustment of share prices to splits or reverse splits can be attributed to heterogeneity in traders' cognitive abilities. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3x30v73p Wed, 17 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Rabanal, Jean Paul Rud, Olga A https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2xb3532n Although non-experimental studies find robust neighborhood effects on adults, such findings have been challenged by results from the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) residential mobility experiment. Using a within-study comparison design, this paper compares experimental and non-experimental estimates from MTO and a parallel analysis of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Striking similarities were found between non-experimental estimates based on MTO and PSID. No clear evidence was found that different estimates are related to duration of adult exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods, non-linear effects of neighborhood conditions, magnitude of the change in neighborhood context, frequency of moves, treatment effect heterogeneity, or measurement, although uncertainty bands around our estimates were sometimes large. One other possibility is that MTO-induced moves might have been unusually disruptive, but results are inconsistent for that hypothesis. Taken together, the findings... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2xb3532n Sat, 13 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Harding, David J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2121-0790 Sanbonmatsu, Lisa Duncan, Greg J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 Gennetian, Lisa A Katz, Lawrence F Kessler, Ronald C Kling, Jeffrey R Sciandra, Matthew Ludwig, Jens https://escholarship.org/uc/item/47r8k464 Empirical work on bank loans typically regresses loan spreads (markups of loan interest rates over a benchmark rate) on observed characteristics of banks, firms, and loans. The estimation is problematic when some of these characteristics are only partially observed and the matching of banks and firms is endogenously determined because they prefer partners that have higher quality. We study the U.S. bank loan market with a two-sided matching model to control for the endogenous matching, and obtain Bayesian inference using a Gibbs sampling algorithm with data augmentation. We find evidence of positive assortative matching of sizes, explained by similar relationships between quality and size on both sides of the market. Banks' risk and firms' risk are important factors in their quality. Controlling for the endogenous matching has a strong impact on estimated coefficients in the loan spread equation. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/47r8k464 Thu, 11 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Chen, Jiawei https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6116-7232 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3t76d9rp International Trade and Stable Resolutions of Resource Disputes https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3t76d9rp Wed, 8 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Garfinkel, Michelle R https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4520-2303 Syropoulos, Constantinos https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9rv8k2rd Exemplary Mixed-Methods Research Studies Compiled by the Mixed Methods Working Group https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9rv8k2rd Wed, 16 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Weis, Lois Eisenhart, Margaret Weisner, Thomas S Cobb, Paul Duncan, Greg J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 Albro, Elizabeth Mendenhall, Ruby Penuel, William Moss, Pamela Ream, Robert K Rumbaut, Rubén G https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2094-4634 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5cr7j3j9 This study estimates peer effects on alcohol use, drawing from a database of about 2000 randomly-assigned roommates on a college campus. The estimation of peer influences also takes into consideration ego's history of alcohol use and friendship with the peer. College students averaged an additional two-fifths of a binge drinking episode per month and an additional one-half of a drinking episode per month when randomly assigned a roommate who drank in high school than when assigned a roommate who did not drink in high school. An individual's prior history of alcohol use proves important. Peer effects on binge drinking as well as drinking for those who already drank in high school were about twice as large as average peer effects. When one did not have a history of alcohol use, negative peer influences were absent. Also important is the friendship between peers. When a peer is considered a best friend, the step-up effect (or positive interaction effect) increased by 1.25-1.61 drinking... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5cr7j3j9 Thu, 3 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Guo, Guang Li, Yi Owen, Craig Wang, Hongyu Duncan, Greg J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2rj9z3sw School quality and the return to schooling in Britain: New evidence from a large-scale compulsory schooling reform https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2rj9z3sw Fri, 21 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Clark, Damon https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5nm4d850 Childhood economic disadvantage is associated with lower cognitive and social-emotional skills, reduced educational attainment, and lower earnings in adulthood. Despite these robust correlations, it is unclear whether family income is the cause of differences observed between children growing up in poverty and their more fortunate peers or whether these differences are merely due to the many other aspects of family life that co-occur with poverty. Baby's First Years is the first randomized controlled trial in the United States designed to identify the causal impact of poverty reduction on children's early development. A total of 1000 low-income mothers of newborns were enrolled in the study and began receiving a monthly unconditional cash gift for the first several years of their children's lives. Mothers were randomly assigned to receive either a large monthly cash gift or a nominal monthly cash gift. All monthly gifts are administered via debit card and can be freely spent with... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5nm4d850 Sat, 24 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Noble, Kimberly G Magnuson, Katherine Gennetian, Lisa A Duncan, Greg J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 Yoshikawa, Hirokazu Fox, Nathan A Halpern-Meekin, Sarah https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8wg1z19n This study is a conceptual replication of a widely cited study by Moffitt et al. (2011) which found that attention and behavior problems in childhood (a composite of impulsive hyperactive, inattentive, and impulsive-aggressive behaviors labeled "self-control") predicted adult financial status, health, and criminal activity. Using data from longitudinal cohort studies in the United States (n = 1,168) and the United Kingdom (<i>n</i> = 16,506), we largely reproduced their pattern of findings that attention and behavior problems measured across the course of childhood predicted a range of adult outcomes including educational attainment (β_U.S. = -0.22, β_U.K. = -0.13) and spending time in jail (OR_U.S. = 1.74, OR_U.K. = 1.48). We found that associations with outcomes in education, work, and finances diminished in the presence of additional covariates for children's home environment and achievement but associations for other outcomes were more... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8wg1z19n Thu, 22 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Koepp, Andrew E Watts, Tyler W Gershoff, Elizabeth T Ahmed, Sammy F Davis-Kean, Pamela Duncan, Greg J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 Kuhfeld, Megan Vandell, Deborah L https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2373-9783 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8t35f8c2 On the basis of a single-period, guns-versus-butter, complete-information model in which two agents dispute control over an insecure portion of their combined output, we study the choice between a peace agreement that maintains the status quo without arming (or unarmed peace) and open conflict (or war) that is possibly destructive. With a focus on outcomes that are immune to both unilateral deviations and coalitional deviations, we find that, depending on war's destructive effects, the degree of output security and the initial distribution of resources, peace can, but need not necessarily, emerge in equilibrium. We also find that, ex ante resource transfers without commitments can improve the prospects for peace, but only when the configuration of parameters describing the degree of output security and the degree of war's destruction ensures the possibility of peace without such transfers at least for some sufficiently even initial resource distributions. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8t35f8c2 Wed, 24 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Garfinkel, Michelle R https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4520-2303 Syropoulos, Constantinos https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8717f8j6 We analyze a dynamic, two-country model that highlights the various trade-offs each country faces between current consumption and competing investments in its future productive and military capacities as it prepares for a possible conflict in the future. Our focus is on the circumstances under which the effects of current trade between the two countries on the future balance of power render trade unappealing to one of them. We find that a positive probability of future conflict induces the country with less resource wealth to “prey” on the relatively more “prudent” behavior of its larger rival, and more so as conflict becomes more likely. While a shift from autarky to trade always raises the current incomes of both countries, the smaller country realizes the relatively larger income gain from trade and also devotes a relatively larger share of its income gain towards arming. Our analysis shows that the larger country rationally chooses not to trade today when the difference in... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8717f8j6 Wed, 24 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Garfinkel, Michelle R https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4520-2303 Syropoulos, Constantinos Zylkin, Thomas https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6rq3j25h We use experimental data to estimate impacts on school readiness of different kinds of preschool curricula - a largely neglected preschool input and measure of preschool quality. We find that the widely-used "whole-child" curricula found in most Head Start and pre-K classrooms produced higher classroom process quality than did locally-developed curricula, but failed to improve children's school readiness. A curriculum focused on building mathematics skills increased both classroom math activities and children's math achievement relative to the whole-child curricula. Similarly, curricula focused on literacy skills increased literacy achievement relative to whole-child curricula, despite failing to boost measured classroom process quality. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6rq3j25h Mon, 22 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Jenkins, Jade M Duncan, Greg J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 Auger, Anamarie Bitler, Marianne Domina, Thurston Burchinal, Margaret https://escholarship.org/uc/item/07w52755 Despite calls to expand early childhood education (ECE) in the United States, questions remain regarding its medium- and long-term impacts on educational outcomes. We use meta-analysis of 22 high-quality experimental and quasi-experimental studies conducted between 1960 and 2016 to find that on average, participation in ECE leads to statistically significant reductions in special education placement (<i>d</i> = 0.33 <i>SD</i>, 8.1 percentage points) and grade retention (<i>d</i> = 0.26 <i>SD</i>, 8.3 percentage points) and increases in high school graduation rates (<i>d</i> = 0.24 <i>SD</i>, 11.4 percentage points). These results support ECE's utility for reducing education-related expenditures and promoting child well-being. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/07w52755 Tue, 16 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000 McCoy, Dana Charles Yoshikawa, Hirokazu Ziol-Guest, Kathleen M Duncan, Greg J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 Schindler, Holly S Magnuson, Katherine Yang, Rui Koepp, Andrew Shonkoff, Jack P https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xm5h4bq Income inequality and the achievement test score gap between high- and low-income children increased dramatically in the United States beginning in the 1970s. This article investigates the demographic (family income, mother’s education, family size, two-parent family structure, and age of mother at birth) underpinnings of the growing income-based gap in schooling using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Across 31 cohorts, we find that increases in the income gap between high- and low-income children account for approximately three-quarters of the increasing gap in completed schooling, one-half of the gap in college attendance, and one-fifth of the gap in college graduation. We find no consistent evidence of increases in the estimated associations between parental income and children’s completed schooling. Increasing gaps in the two-parent family structures of high- and low-income families accounted for relatively little of the schooling gap because our estimates of... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xm5h4bq Sat, 13 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Duncan, Greg J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 Kalil, Ariel Ziol-Guest, Kathleen M https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8wg793xv Given the short- and long-term disabilities associated with breast cancer and its treatment, the authors investigate the influence of workplace accommodations on the employment and hours worked of women newly diagnosed with breast cancer. Accommodations that allow women to work fewer hours or that ease the burden of work could also generate health benefits by reducing workplace demands and allowing women more time to tend to treatment needs and recovery. In prior research, the authors found modest labor supply impacts on employment for this group of women. Evidence from this study suggests that some accommodations are associated with fewer hours worked, while some are associated with higher employment or hours. In addition, some of the accommodations that may affect hours of work-sometimes positively and sometimes negatively-are associated with positive health benefits. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8wg793xv Tue, 18 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Neumark, David Bradley, Cathy J Henry, Miguel Dahman, Bassam https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8vc320nd We study the impact of the Indian trade liberalization of 1991 on development at the district level using satellite nighttime lights per capita as a proxy for development. We find that on average, trade liberalization increased nighttime lights per capita, but there was considerable heterogeneity in the effect. In particular, districts in states with flexible labor laws, districts with better road networks, proximity to the coast, or higher female labor force participation rate seem to have benefited more than other districts. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8vc320nd Wed, 12 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Jha, Priyaranjan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1277-0382 Talathi, Karan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8511r0z3 type="main" xml:id="ecin12139-abs-0001"&gt; <p>Changes in the costs of trading inputs or final goods affect establishment-level job flows. Using a longitudinal database containing the universe of manufacturing establishments in California from 1992 to 2004, we find that a decline in input or final-good trade costs is associated with job destruction in the least productive establishments, job creation in the most productive establishments, and an increase in the death likelihood of the least productive establishments. The evidence is consistent with predictions of models of trade with heterogeneous firms. Additionally, the evidence shows that the effects of input trade costs on establishment-level job flows are larger than the effects of final-good trade costs. (JEL F14, F16)</p> https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8511r0z3 Wed, 12 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Groizard, Jose L Ranjan, Priya https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1277-0382 Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5m05t459 We extend the small country trade model with firm heterogeneity (Demidova and Rodriguez-Clare, Journal of International Economics, 90, 2013 and 266) to incorporate offshoring (along with final goods trade). We derive the firm-level employment implications of output and input trade and trade costs and test them using Korean firm-level data for the period 2006–2016. A key theoretical result is that the impact of a change in offshoring cost on employment depends crucially on the net substitutability between inputs where net substitutability is the difference between the elasticities of input substitution and output substitution. Empirically, we find that a decrease in the input trade cost reduces employment and the impact is stronger, the greater the net substitutability between inputs. Our 2SLS results with firm-level imports (in place of trade costs) are consistent with our results with trade costs. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5m05t459 Wed, 12 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Jha, Priyaranjan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1277-0382 Lee, Jae Yoon Liang, Yang Mitra, Devashish https://escholarship.org/uc/item/23m5903f Offshoring reallocates jobs inside firms, between firms, and across sectors, affecting the economy-wide unemployment rate. We study these channels in a model with labor market frictions and two sectors-a differentiated-good sector comprising heterogeneous firms that can offshore, and a homogeneous-good sector. A decline in offshoring costs affects intrafirm and intrasectoral reallocation of jobs in the differentiated-good sector through a selection effect, a productivity effect, and a job-relocation effect. The key parameters determining the impact of offshoring on jobs at various margins, as well as on the economy-wide unemployment rate, are the elasticity of substitution between inputs, the elasticity of substitution between varieties of differentiated goods, and the elasticity of demand for differentiated goods as a whole. Changes in search frictions affect unemployment both directly and through their interaction with offshoring. Highlights: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/23m5903f Wed, 12 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Groizard, Jose L Ranjan, Priya https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1277-0382 Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1mv6n3qx Changes in the costs of trading inputs or final goods affect establishment-level job flows. Using a longitudinal database containing the universe of manufacturing establishments in California from 1992 to 2004, we find that a decline in input or final-good trade costs is associated with job destruction in the least productive establishments, job creation in the most productive establishments, and an increase in the death likelihood of the least productive establishments. The evidence is consistent with predictions of models of trade with heterogeneous firms. Additionally, the evidence shows that the effects of input trade costs on establishment-level job flows are larger than the effects of final-good trade costs. (JEL F14, F16) https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1mv6n3qx Wed, 12 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Groizard, JL Ranjan, P https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1277-0382 Rodriguez-Lopez, A https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0ck3m268 Changes in the costs of trading inputs or final goods affect establishment-level job flows. Using a longitudinal database containing the universe of manufacturing establishments in California from 1992 to 2004, we find that a decline in input or final-good trade costs is associated with job destruction in the least productive establishments, job creation in the most productive establishments, and an increase in the death likelihood of the least productive establishments. The evidence is consistent with predictions of models of trade with heterogeneous firms. Additionally, the evidence shows that the effects of input trade costs on establishment-level job flows are larger than the effects of final-good trade costs. © 2014 Western Economic Association International. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0ck3m268 Wed, 12 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Groizard, Jose L Ranjan, Priya https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1277-0382 Rodriguez‐Lopez, Antonio https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0kb4b4xd I consider a generalizarion of Vanderschraaf's correlated conventions to Quasi-Conventions, using the concept of coarse correlated equilibria. I discuss the possibility of improved payoffs and the question of learnability by simple uncoupled learning dynamics. Laboratory experiments are surveyed. The generalization introduces strains of commitment, which can be see from different points of view. I conclude that the strains of commitment preclude using the generalization as a stand-alone definition of convention, but that in certain settings Quasi-Conventions can be important modules within larger true conventions. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0kb4b4xd Thu, 30 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Skyrms, Brian https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6961-9974 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9n01s237 Between the first and second editions of A System of Logic, John Stuart Mill underwent a startling conversion from an uncompromising frequentist philosophy of probability to a thoroughly Bayesian degree-of-belief view. The conversion was effected by correspondence with the eminent scientist Sir John Herschel, to whom Mill already owed what have become known as Mill's Methods of Experimental Inference. We present the relevant correspondence, and discuss the extent of Mill's conversion. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9n01s237 Wed, 18 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Skyrms, Brian https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6961-9974 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9531t22z Abstract: Ken Binmore’s (1994, 1998) treatment of his Game of Life as a bargaining game and his treatment of morality as an equilibrium selection device for that game, are examined in the context of repeated games with both infinite and finite horizon. With a finite horizon, there are three different viable approaches. They differ in the way they impact his treatment of morality. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9531t22z Wed, 18 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Skyrms, Brian https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6961-9974 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8dr3g9w1 Learning to Signal with Two Kinds of Trial and Error https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8dr3g9w1 Wed, 18 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Skyrms, B https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6961-9974 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7jv4v3m3 We revisit classical Utilitarianism by connecting and generalizing two ideas. The first is that there is a representation theorem possible for hedonic value (pleasure) similar to, but also importantly different from, the one provided by von Neumann and Morgenstern to measure decision utility. The idea is to use objective time, in place of objective chance, to measure hedonic value. This representation for hedonic value delivers a stronger kind of scale than von Neumann–Morgenstern utility, a ratio scale rather than merely an interval scale. The second idea is that measurement on a ratio scale allows the meaningful aggregation of utilities over a group. This is aggregation by product rather than sum. Aggregation by product is known to have interesting Prioritarian consequences. Aggregation becomes complicated when the two approaches are mixed, when hedonic value is mixed with uncertainly. It becomes problematic when pain as well as pleasure is taken into account. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7jv4v3m3 Wed, 18 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Skyrms, Brian https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6961-9974 Narens, Louis https://escholarship.org/uc/item/55v953w5 We present here a hierarchical model for the evolution of compositional language. The model has the structure of a two-sender/one-receiver Lewis signaling game augmented with executive agents who may learn to influence the behavior of the basic senders and receiver. The model shows how functional agents might coevolve representational roles even as they evolve a reliable compositional language in the context of costly signaling. When successful, the evolved language captures both the compositional structure of properties in the world and the compositional structure of successful actions involving those properties. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/55v953w5 Wed, 18 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Barrett, Jeffrey A Cochran, Calvin Skyrms, Brian https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6961-9974 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3zc4t639 The Stag Hunt is a story that became a game. The game is a prototype of social contract. The Stag Hunt does not have the same melodramatic quality as the Prisoner's Dilemma. In the Stag Hunt, what is rational for one player to choose depends on his beliefs about what the other will choose. Both stag hunting and hare hunting are equilibria. That is just to say that it is best to hunt stag if the other player hunts stag and it is best to hunt hare if the other player hunts hare. The two mentioned games, Prisoner's Dilemma and the Stag Hunt, are not unrelated. Considerations raised by both Hobbes and Hume can show that a seeming Prisoner's Dilemma is really a Stag Hunt. Suppose that Prisoner's Dilemma is repeated. Then actions on one play may affect partner's actions on other plays, and considerations of reputation may assume an importance that they cannot have if there is no repetition. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3zc4t639 Wed, 18 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Skyrms, B https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6961-9974 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3fw867zg In interactive situations, agents can “learn” something that is not a preexisting truth. They can converge to an arbitrary convention, or tacit agreement. Once established they may even view it as an objective truth. Here we investigate accommodation dynamics for interpersonal comparisons of utility intervals. We show, for a large class of dynamics, convergence to a convention. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3fw867zg Wed, 18 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000 Narens, Louis Skyrms, Brian https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6961-9974 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/18x487sc New forms of infrastructure are needed in a world characterized by the burdens of global climate change, a growing population, increasing socio-technical complexity, and natural and human stressors to our human systems. Enabling communities to transition to a more resilient configuration of infrastructures is crucial for establishing a distributed portfolio of processes and systems by which human needs may be met. This paper proposes a potential way to increase infrastructure resilience by supporting the creation of alternative, decentralized infrastructures (ADIs) composed of small-scale, heterogeneous systems and processes. We see two possible roles for these ADIs: first, they could be integrated with existing infrastructures in the industrialized world, thereby providing some redundancy during times of strain on larger centralized systems; and second, they could help developing communities leapfrog centralized and more capital intensive conventional infrastructure. We present... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/18x487sc Tue, 11 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Tomlinson, Bill https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8386-4730 Nardi, Bonnie Patterson, Donald J https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8525-0495 Raturi, Ankita Richardson, Debra Saphores, Jean-Daniel https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9514-0994 Stokols, Dan https://escholarship.org/uc/item/63z269ct <h4>Objective</h4>COVID-19 in the US disproportionately affected, and continues to affect, racial/ethnic minorities. Although risky social gatherings for Thanksgiving and Christmas in 2020 contributed substantially to the "winter surge" in cases and deaths, no research examines potential racial/ethnic differences in behaviors related to holiday gatherings.<h4>Design</h4>We used the Understanding America Survey (UAS) - Coronavirus Tracking, a nationally representative study of US adults, to examine associations between race/ethnicity and risky holiday gathering behavior (i.e., gathering with non-household members and with little to no social distancing or mask-wearing). We applied logistic regression models to examine racial/ethnic and socioeconomic differences in risky holiday gatherings while accounting for a person's pre-holiday perception of COVID-19 risk as well as related behaviors.<h4>Results</h4>Non-Hispanic Black adults showed a lower prevalence of attending a risky Thanksgiving... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/63z269ct Sat, 10 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Bruckner, Tim A Das, Abhery Duncan, Greg J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8mt1t061 BackgroundPolicy debates over anti-poverty programs are often marked by pernicious stereotypes suggesting that direct cash transfers to people residing in poverty encourage health-risking behaviors such as smoking, drinking, and other substance use. Causal evidence on this issue is limited in the U.S. Given the prominent role of child allowances and other forms of cash assistance in the 2021 American Rescue Plan and proposed Build Back Better legislation, evidence on the extent to which a monthly unconditional cash gift changes substance use patterns among low-income mothers with infants warrants attention, particularly in the context of economic supports that can help improve early environments of children.MethodWe employ a multi-site, parallel-group, randomized control trial in which 1,000 low-income mothers in the U.S. with newborns were recruited from hospitals shortly after the infant’s birth and randomly assigned to receive either a substantial ($333) or a nominal ($20)... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8mt1t061 Sat, 23 Jul 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Yoo, Paul Y Duncan, Greg J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 Magnuson, Katherine Fox, Nathan A Yoshikawa, Hirokazu Halpern-Meekin, Sarah Noble, Kimberly G https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1xp217v1 We report on an experiment examining whether individuals can solve a simple signal extraction problem of the type found in models with imperfect information. In one treatment, subjects must form point predictions based on observing both public and private signals, while in another they receive the same information but must decide on the weight to attach to each signal, which then determines their point prediction. We find that, at the aggregate level, signal extraction provides a good characterization of subjects’ behavior in both treatments, but at the individual level, there is considerable heterogeneity in subjects’ ability to perform signal extraction. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1xp217v1 Tue, 28 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Bao, Te Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0bs6f6qx We examine how exchange traded funds (ETFs) affect asset pricing, and turnover in a laboratory asset market. We focus on behavior in secondary markets with or without ETF assets and whether there is zero or negative correlation in asset dividends. In the latter case, the diversification benefits of ETFs are most salient. We find that when the dividends are negatively correlated, ETFs reduce asset mispricing without decreasing market activity (turnover). When dividends are uncorrelated, the ETF has no impact on these same measures. Thus, our findings suggest that ETFs do not harm, and may in fact improve, price discovery and liquidity in asset markets. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0bs6f6qx Tue, 28 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Rabanal, Jean Paul Rud, Olga A https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9609v0sd Can the United States dramatically reduce the number of its children living in poverty? This article summarizes key conclusions of the report issued by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine's Committee on Building an Agenda to Reduce the Number of Children in Poverty by Half in 10 Years. These conclusions focus on the causal evidence linking poverty reduction and child well-being as well as a host of policy and program ideas directed toward poverty reduction. The Committee found that packages of work-oriented and income support program are able to simultaneously reduce child poverty and increase the number of adult workers in low-income families. Costs of these policies are also considered. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9609v0sd Fri, 27 May 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Duncan, Greg J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0nm4r1c6 Investing in Early Childhood Development in Preschool and at Home https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0nm4r1c6 Fri, 27 May 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Duncan, Greg https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9869-6311 Kalil, Ariel Mogstad, Magne Rege, Mari https://escholarship.org/uc/item/89f1n4hf We extend the beauty contest game to two dimensions: each player chooses two numbers to be as close as possible to certain target values, which are linear functions of the averages of the two number choices. One of the targets depends on the averages of both numbers, making the choices interrelated. We report on an experiment where we vary the eigenvalues of the associated two-dimensional linear system and find that subjects can learn the Pareto-optimal Nash Equilibrium of the system if both eigenvalues are stable and cannot learn it if both eigenvalues are unstable. Interestingly, subjects can also learn it if the system has the saddlepath property – with one stable and one unstable eigenvalue — but only if the one unstable eigenvalue is negative. We show theoretically that our results cannot be explained by homogeneous level-k models where all agents apply the same level k depth of reasoning to their choices, including the naïve learning model. However, our results can be explained... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/89f1n4hf Wed, 27 Apr 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Anufriev, Mikhail Duffy, John https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7660-2281 Panchenko, Valentyn