Recent ucla_econ_oapdeposits items

The Economics of Childbearing: Trends, Progress, and Challenges

Wed, 3 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The neoclassical economics of childbearing turns 65 this year, marking the anniversary of Gary Becker's foundational article on the subject in 1960. This review article begins with a study of how childbearing has evolved in the United States over the last century, identifying distinctive features of the post-1960 era associated with the second demographic transition. Next, the article discusses standard neoclassical models of childbearing and shows how augmenting them with a supply side, including access to and information about contraception and abortion, increases their explanatory power. After reviewing recent quasi-experimental research testing this augmented model, the final part of the article reflects upon the implications of the recent transformation in US fertility rates for women and children and suggests fruitful avenues for future research.

The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and US Tax Data

Wed, 3 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000

We use administrative tax data to analyze the cumulative, long-run effects of California’s 2004 Paid Family Leave Act (CPFL) on women’s employment, earnings, and childbearing. A regression-discontinuity design exploits the sharp increase in the weeks of paid leave available under the law. We find no evidence that CPFL increased employment, boosted earnings, or encouraged childbearing, suggesting that CPFL had little effect on the gender pay gap or child penalty. For first-time mothers, we find that CPFL reduced employment and earnings a decade after they gave birth. (JEL H24, J13, J16, J31, J32, K31)

Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence From the Food Stamps Program

Wed, 3 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000

We use novel, large-scale data on 17.5 million Americans to study how a policy-driven increase in economic resources affects children's long-term outcomes. Using the 2000 Census and 2001-13 American Community Survey linked to the Social Security Administration's NUMIDENT, we leverage the county-level rollout of the Food Stamps program between 1961 and 1975. We find that children with access to greater economic resources before age five have better outcomes as adults. The treatment-on-the-treated effects show a 6% of a standard deviation improvement in human capital, 3% of a standard deviation increase in economic self-sufficiency, 8% of a standard deviation increase in the quality of neighbourhood of residence, a 1.2-year increase in life expectancy, and a 0.5 percentage-point decrease in likelihood of being incarcerated. These estimates suggest that Food Stamps' transfer of resources to families is a highly cost-effective investment in young children, yielding a marginal value...

How the 1963 Equal Pay Act and 1964 Civil Rights Act Shaped the Gender Gap in Pay*

Wed, 3 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000

In the 1960s, two landmark statutes-the Equal Pay and Civil Rights Acts-targeted the long-standing practice of employment discrimination against U.S. women. For the next 15 years, the gender gap in median earnings among full-time, full-year workers changed little, leading many scholars to conclude that the legislation was ineffectual. This article revisits this conclusion using two research designs, which leverage (i) cross-state variation in preexisting state equal pay laws and (ii) variation in the 1960 gender gap across occupation-industry-state-group cells to capture differences in the legislation's incidence. Both designs suggest that federal antidiscrimination legislation led to striking gains in women's relative wages, which were concentrated among below-median wage earners. These wage gains offset preexisting labor market forces, which worked to depress women's relative pay growth, resulting in the apparent stability of the gender gap at the median and mean in the 1960s...

The Effects of the Great Depression on Children’s Intergenerational Mobility

Sat, 2 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

This article examines the role of the Great Depression in shaping the intergenerational mobility of some of the most upwardly mobile cohorts of the twentieth century. Using newly linked census and vital records from the Longitudinal, Intergenerational Family Electronic Micro-database, we examine the occupational and educational mobility of more than 265,000 sons and daughters born in Ohio and North Carolina. We find that the deepest and most protracted downturn in U.S. history had limited effects on sons' intergenerational mobility but reduced daughters' intergenerational mobility.

The creation of LIFE-M: The Longitudinal, Intergenerational Family Electronic Micro-Database project

Tue, 20 Aug 2024 00:00:00 +0000

This paper describes the creation of the Longitudinal, Intergenerational Family Electronic Micro-Database (LIFE-M), a new data resource linking vital records and decennial censuses for millions of individuals and families living in the late 19th and 20th centuries in the United States. This combination of records provides a life-course and intergenerational perspective on the evolution of health and economic outcomes. Vital records also enable the linkage of women, because they contain a crosswalk between women's birth (i.e., "maiden") and married names. We describe (1) the data sources, coverage, and linking sequence; (2) the process and supervised machine-learning methods to linking records longitudinally and across generations; and (3) the resulting linked samples, including linking rates, representativeness, and weights.

Tax progressivity and taxing the rich in developing countries: lessons from Latin America.

Fri, 12 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000

This article discusses the challenges and potential policy choices for levying progressive taxes and taxing the rich in Latin America, a region known for its high-income inequality, limited tax-collection capacity, and low share of taxes collected from personal income and wealth. Factors such as high exemption thresholds, low top marginal tax rates, and limited administrative capacity undermine the redistributive ability and revenue collection of the tax systems in the region. Moreover, the income composition for the top percentiles largely comes from capital, and the effective tax rates they face are often low due to the preferential treatment of capital income and wealth. After discussing the evidence of how the rich in Latin America respond to progressive taxes on income and wealth and changes in enforcement policy, we provide some insights on potential policy choices to tax them effectively. These may include broadening the income tax base by lowering the number of exempt...

ONE HUNDRED YEARS OF EXCHANGE RATE ECONOMICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO: 1892–1992

Wed, 22 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

In this paper I analyze the work on exchange rates and external imbalances by University of Chicago faculty members during the university’s first 100 years, 1892 to 1992. Many people associate Chicago’s views with Milton Friedman’s advocacy for flexible exchange rates. But, of course, there was much more than that, including the work of J. Laurence Laughlin on bimetallism, Jacob Viner on the balance of payments, Lloyd Metzler on transfers, Harry Johnson on trade and currencies, Lloyd Mints on exchange rate regimes, Robert Mundell on optimal currency areas, and Arnold Harberger on shadow exchange rates, among others. The analysis shows that, although different scholars emphasized different issues, there was a common thread in this research, anchored on the role of relative prices’ changes during the adjustment process.

The COVID-19 baby bump in the United States

Wed, 27 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0000

We use natality microdata covering the universe of US. births for 2015 to 2021 and California births from 2015 through February 2023 to examine childbearing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that 60% of the 2020 decline in US fertility rates was driven by sharp reductions in births to foreign-born mothers although births to this group comprised only 22% of all US births in 2019. This decline started in January 2020. In contrast, the COVID-19 recession resulted in an overall "baby bump" among US-born mothers, which marked the first reversal in declining fertility rates since the Great Recession. Births to US-born mothers fell by 31,000 in 2020 relative to a prepandemic trend but increased by 71,000 in 2021. The data for California suggest that US births remained elevated through February 2023. The baby bump was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, suggesting that the pandemic led some women to start families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was...

A Conversational War of Attrition

Wed, 8 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0000

We explore costly deliberation by two differentially informed and possibly biased jurors: A hawk Lones and a dove Moritz alternately insist on a verdict until one concedes. Debate assumes one of two genres, depending on bias: A juror, say Lones, is intransigent if he wishes to prevail and reach a conviction for any type of Moritz next to concede. In contrast, Lones is ambivalent if he wants the strongest conceding types of Moritz to push for acquittal. Both jurors are ambivalent with small bias or high delay costs. As Lones grows more hawkish, he argues more forcefully for convictions, mitigating wrongful acquittals. If dovish Moritz is intransigent, then he softens (strategic substitutes), leading to more wrongful convictions. Ambivalent debate is new, and yields a novel dynamic benefit of increased polarization. For if Moritz is ambivalent, then he toughens (strategic complements), and so, surprisingly, a more hawkish Lones leads to fewer wrongful acquittals and convictions....

Learning Dynamics in Social Networks

Wed, 8 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0000

This paper proposes a tractable model of Bayesian learning on large random networks where agents choose whether to adopt an innovation. We study the impact of the network structure on learning dynamics and product diffusion. In directed networks, all direct and indirect links contribute to agents' learning. In comparison, learning and welfare are lower in undirected networks and networks with cliques. In a rich class of networks, behavior is described by a small number of differential equations, making the model useful for empirical work.

Relational Contracts in Competitive Labour Markets

Wed, 8 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0000

We analyze a large, anonymous labour market in which firms motivate their workers via relational contracts. The market is frictionless and features on-the-job search, in that all acceptable vacancies are immediately filled and the employed compete with the unemployed for vacancies. While firms and workers are ex ante identical, the unique equilibrium exhibits a continuous distribution of contracts in which high wage firms have higher retention rates, more motivated workers and higher productivity. The model thus generates dispersion in wages, productivity and human resource strategies, and gives rise to endogenous job ladders. An exogenous increase in on-the-job search increases the quantity of jobs but decreases their quality; with sufficient on-the-job search there is full employment, and wage dispersion rather than unemployment motivates workers.

Discrimination in Hiring: Evidence from Retail Sales

Wed, 8 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Discrimination in Hiring: Evidence from Retail Sales

An optimal voting procedure when voting is costly

Wed, 8 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0000

We study optimal dynamic voting procedures when voting is costly. For a highly stylized specification of our model with private values, two alternatives, and binary, equally likely types we show the optimality of a voting procedure that combines two main elements: (i) there is an arbitrarily chosen default decision and abstention is interpreted as a vote in favor of the default; (ii) voting is sequential and is terminated when a supermajority requirement, which declines over time, is met. We show the optimality of such a voting procedure by arguing that it is first best, that is, it maximizes welfare when equilibrium constraints are ignored, and by showing that individual incentives and social welfare are sufficiently aligned to make a first best procedure incentive compatible. We also provide counterexamples where no first best procedure is incentive compatible when voters' binary types are not equally likely.

Overweight grandsons and grandfathers’ starvation exposure

Sat, 28 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Much of the increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity has been in developing countries with a history of famines and malnutrition. This paper is the first to examine overweight among adult grandsons of grandfathers exposed to starvation during developmental ages. I study grandsons born to grandfathers who served in the Union Army during the US Civil War (1861-5) where some grandfathers experienced severe net malnutrition because they suffered a harsh POW experience. I find that male-line but not female-line grandsons of grandfathers who survived a severe captivity during their growing years faced a 21% increase in mean overweight and a 2% increase in mean BMI compared to grandsons of non-POWs. Male-line grandsons descended from grandfathers who experienced a harsh captivity faced a 22%-28% greater risk of dying every year after age 45 relative to grandsons descended from non-POWs, with overweight accounting for 9%-14% of the excess risk.

Oleg Itskhoki: 2022 John Bates Clark Medalist

Thu, 22 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0000

The 2022 John Bates Clark Medal of the American Economic Association was awarded to Oleg Itskhoki, Professor of Economics at the University of California, Los Angeles for his path breaking contributions in international economics. This article summarizes Oleg Itskhoki’s work and places it in the context of the broader literature and emphasizes how it has shed new light on a number of long-standing puzzles regarding the behavior of exchange rates and international relative prices more generally and their connection to macroeconomic fluctuations and government’s choices of monetary and fiscal policies.

Wartime Health Shocks and the Postwar Socioeconomic Status and Mortality of Union Army Veterans and Their Children

Thu, 8 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Wartime Health Shocks and the Postwar Socioeconomic Status and Mortality of Union Army Veterans and Their Children

Uniformly valid post-regularization confidence regions for many functional parameters in z-estimation framework

Tue, 6 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0000

In this paper, we develop procedures to construct simultaneous confidence bands for potentially infinite-dimensional parameters after model selection for general moment condition models where is potentially much larger than the sample size of available data, n. This allows us to cover settings with functional response data where each of the parameters is a function. The procedure is based on the construction of score functions that satisfy Neyman orthogonality condition approximately. The proposed simultaneous confidence bands rely on uniform central limit theorems for high-dimensional vectors (and not on Donsker arguments as we allow for ). To construct the bands, we employ a multiplier bootstrap procedure which is computationally efficient as it only involves resampling the estimated score functions (and does not require resolving the high-dimensional optimization problems). We formally apply the general theory to inference on regression coefficient process in the...

Return to work and lost earnings after acute respiratory distress syndrome: a 5-year prospective, longitudinal study of long-term survivors

Sat, 3 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0000

BACKGROUND: Delayed return to work is common after acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), but has undergone little detailed evaluation. We examined factors associated with the timing of return to work after ARDS, along with lost earnings and shifts in healthcare coverage. METHODS: Five-year, multisite prospective, longitudinal cohort study of 138 2-year ARDS survivors hospitalised between 2004 and 2007. Employment and healthcare coverage were collected via structured interview. Predictors of time to return to work were evaluated using Fine and Grey regression analysis. Lost earnings were estimated using Bureau of Labor Statistics data. RESULTS: Sixty-seven (49%) of the 138 2-year survivors were employed prior to ARDS. Among 64 5-year survivors, 20 (31%) never returned to work across 5-year follow-up. Predictors of delayed return to work (HR (95% CI)) included baseline Charlson Comorbidity Index (0.77 (0.59 to 0.99) per point; p=0.04), mechanical ventilation duration...

Joblessness and Lost Earnings after Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in a 1-Year National Multicenter Study

Sat, 3 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0000

RATIONALE: Following acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), joblessness is common but poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the timing of return to work after ARDS, and associated risk factors, lost earnings, and changes in healthcare coverage Methods: Over 12-month longitudinal follow-up, ARDS survivors from 43 U.S. ARDSNet hospitals provided employment and healthcare coverage data via structured telephone interviews. Factors associated with the timing of return to work were assessed using Fine and Gray regression analysis. Lost earnings were estimated using Bureau of Labor Statistics data. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of 922 consenting survivors, 386 (42%) were employed before ARDS (56% male; mean ± SD age, 45 ± 13 yr), with seven dying by 12-month follow-up. Of 379 previously employed 12-month survivors, 166 (44%) were jobless at 12-month follow-up. Accounting for competing risks of death and retirement, half of enrolled and previously employed survivors returned...

Static and Intertemporal Household Decisions.

Sat, 13 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000

We discuss the most popular static and dynamic models of household behavior. Our main objective is to explain which aspects of household decisions different models can account for. Using this insight, we describe testable implications, identification results, and estimation findings obtained in the literature. Particular attention is given to the ability of different models to answer various types of policy questions.

The Effects of Two Influential Early Childhood Interventions on Health and Healthy Behaviour*

Mon, 1 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000

This paper examines the long-term impacts on health and healthy behaviors of two of the oldest and most widely cited U.S. early childhood interventions evaluated by the method of randomization with long-term follow-up: the Perry Preschool Project (PPP) and the Carolina Abecedarian Project (ABC). There are pronounced gender effects strongly favoring boys, although there are also effects for girls. Dynamic mediation analyses show a significant role played by improved childhood traits, above and beyond the effects of experimentally enhanced adult socioeconomic status. These results show the potential of early life interventions for promoting health.

Death and the Media: Infectious Disease Reporting During the Health Transition

Mon, 1 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000

In the late 19th Century, cities in Western Europe and the United States suffered from high levels of infectious disease. Over a 40 year period, there was a dramatic decline in infectious disease deaths in cities. As such objective progress in urban quality of life took place, how did the media report this trend? At that time newspapers were the major source of information educating urban households about the risks they faced. By constructing a unique panel data base, we find that news reports were positively associated with government announced typhoid mortality counts and the size of this effect actually grew after the local governments made large investments in public water works to reduce typhoid rates. News coverage was more responsive to unexpected increases in death rates than to unexpected decreases in death rates.

When does education matter? The protective effect of education for cohorts graduating in bad times

Sat, 8 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Using Eurobarometer data, we document large variation across European countries in education gradients in income, self-reported health, life satisfaction, obesity, smoking and drinking. While this variation has been documented previously, the reasons why the effect of education on income, health and health behaviors varies is not well understood. We build on previous literature documenting that cohorts graduating in bad times have lower wages and poorer health for many years after graduation, compared to those graduating in good times. We investigate whether more educated individuals suffer smaller income and health losses as a result of poor labor market conditions upon labor market entry. We confirm that a higher unemployment rate at graduation is associated with lower income, lower life satisfaction, greater obesity, more smoking and drinking later in life. Further, education plays a protective role for these outcomes, especially when unemployment rates are high: the losses...

Does Family Planning Increase Children’s Opportunities? Evidence from the War on Poverty and the Early Years of Title X