Recent ucla_polisci_oapdeposits items

Safe inference outside of randomized trials: Application of the stability-controlled quasi-experiment to the effects of three COVID-19 therapies

Wed, 3 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

When estimating the effects of medical therapies from their use outside of randomized trials, researchers often rely on assumptions that are difficult to justify and typically impossible to verify. The resulting estimates may thus be far from their intended causal targets, potentially making a harmful treatment appear beneficial or vice versa. We review the stability-controlled quasi-experiment (SCQE), a method suited to settings where a treatment's prevalence changes sharply over a short period, and apply it to assess the effects of remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, and dexamethasone on COVID-19 mortality. Rather than requiring debate about the absence (or limited strength) of unobserved confounding, about "parallel trends'', or other well-known strategies, the SCQE asks users to reason about a "baseline trend'' assumption. In this setting, this asks"How much could COVID-19 mortality have changed over a short period, absent the treatment change in question?'' Any plausible range...

Sensitive places, persistent violence: Effectiveness of “Bar Ban” laws in reducing gun violence near alcohol vendors

Wed, 6 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Americans have differing opinions on whether greater regulation of firearms results in improved public safety. One area that seems to enjoy broad support is to limit firearm access in specific locations. “Bar Ban” laws—which prohibit firearms where alcohol is served—represent one such approach, yet their effectiveness remains largely unexamined nationally. This paper provides the first comprehensive evaluation of the impact of Bar Ban laws on shootings near alcohol-related establishments. Using a geospatial panel dataset of over 1.6 million alcohol vendors active across the United States between January 2019 and January 2025, we analyze the relationship between restrictions on carrying a gun where alcohol is served and gun violence. Results show that shootings occur close to alcohol-serving establishments: across 263,464 shooting incidents, the median distance to the nearest alcohol vendor was 222 meters. To assess the effectiveness of Bar Ban laws, we employ a stacked difference-in-differences...

Improving Computer Vision Interpretability: Transparent Two-Level Classification for Complex Scenes

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract Treating images as data has become increasingly popular in political science. While existing classifiers for images reach high levels of accuracy, it is difficult to systematically assess the visual features on which they base their classification. This paper presents a two-level classification method that addresses this transparency problem. At the first stage, an image segmenter detects the objects present in the image and a feature vector is created from those objects. In the second stage, this feature vector is used as input for standard machine learning classifiers to discriminate between images. We apply this method to a new dataset of more than 140,000 images to detect which ones display political protest. This analysis demonstrates three advantages to this paper’s approach. First, identifying objects in images improves transparency by providing human-understandable labels for the objects shown on an image. Second, knowing these objects enables analysis of which...

A causal approach for detecting team-level momentum in NBA games

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This paper provides new evidence that team-level momentum exists in the National Basketball Association (NBA). The existence of momentum is one of the most prominent and longstanding questions in sports analytics. But for all its importance to announcers, coaches, and players, existing literature has found little evidence of momentum in professional basketball. This paper exploits a natural experiment in the flow of basketball games: television (TV) timeouts. Since TV timeouts occur at points exogenous to momentum, they enable the measurement of the effect of pauses in the game separate from the effect of strategy changes. We find TV timeouts cause an 11.2% decline in the number of points that the team with momentum subsequently scores. This effect is robust to the size of a run, substitutions, and game context. This result has far reaching implications in basketball strategy and the understanding of momentum in sports more broadly.

Digitizing and Generating Social Conflict Data with Artificial Intelligence

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The difficulty of collecting social conflict data has caused its study to focus on recent events predominantly in the West. This paper shows how to use artificial intelligence to generate social conflict data regardless of language, location, or date. Digitizing tertiary books, lightly cleaning their text representation, and submitting that text to a large language model (LLM) produces accurate date, location, and event descriptions. These capabilities and results are demonstrated with books on Latin America after 1492, Imperial Russia, and Tokugawa Japan. Using LLMs requires a larger fixed cost than working a team of research assistants, but it produces results more quickly for most sources. It is less accurate for the Tokugawa Japan source; whether it or human translation is cheaper depends on the cost of correcting the LLM’s work. These results represent the floor of accuracy for artificial intelligence, suggesting researchers should soon use it for creating social conflict...

Do Pre-analysis Plans Hamper Publication?

Thu, 9 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Scholars assert that pre-analysis plans (PAPs) generate boring, lab-report style papers and thus hamper publication. We test this claim by comparing the publication rates of experimental NBER working papers with and without PAPs. We find that articles with PAPs are slightly less likely to be published. However, conditional on being published, PAP-generated papers are significantly more likely to land in top-five journals. Also, PAP-based journal articles generate more citations. Our findings suggest that the alleged trade-off between career concerns and the scientific credibility that comes from registering and adhering to a PAP is less stark than is sometimes alleged.

Accordance and conflict between religious and scientific precautions against COVID-19 in 27 societies

Thu, 9 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Meaning-making systems underlie perceptions of the efficacy of threat-mitigating behaviors. Religion and science both offer threat mitigation, yet these meaning-making systems are often considered incompatible. Do such epistemological conflicts swamp the desire to employ diverse precautions against threats? Or do individuals—particularly individuals who are highly reactive to threats—hedge their bets by using multiple threat-mitigating practices despite their potential epistemological incompatibility? Complicating this question, perceptions of conflict between religion and science likely vary across cultures; likewise, pragmatic features of precautions prescribed by some religions make them incompatible with some scientifically-based precautions. The COVID-19 pandemic elicited diverse precautions thus providing an opportunity to investigate these questions. Across 27 societies from five continents (N = 7,844), in the majority of countries, individuals’ practice of religious precautions...

Measuring interethnic marriage in Africa

Thu, 9 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract: Interethnic marriage is commonly employed as an indicator of social cohesion. However, intermarriages are a reflection of both preferences and opportunities. If we are to interpret intermarriage rates as indicators of people’s willingness to cross group boundaries, we must find a way of controlling for exposure to out-group members in local marriage markets. In this Note, I exploit census data from Zambia to demonstrate how this can be done. The findings, which reveal significant differences across estimates that do and do not control for local exposure to out-group members, underscore a significant weakness in common approaches. The findings also point to important substantive implications for understanding changes in social cohesion in Zambia—and likely other African societies—over time.

Tensions in Knowledge Accumulation Using Coordinated Intervention Experiments to Improve Public Policy

Thu, 9 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Tensions in Knowledge Accumulation Using Coordinated Intervention Experiments to Improve Public Policy

Terms Matter: The Use of 'Tribe' in African Studies

Thu, 9 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Terms Matter: The Use of 'Tribe' in African Studies

Taken at face value: Emotion expression and protest dynamics

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Understanding the role of emotions in protest is a growing field of research, but existing research does not address the role of emotions once protests start. By applying computer vision models to the expressed emotions of 37,558 faces in 7,824 geolocated protest images across twelve protest waves in ten countries, this article contributes to the study of emotions and protest. Most importantly, it measures emotions within protest waves, not before them. It also investigates emotions’ temporal effects, measures multiple emotions simultaneously, connects emotions directly to actual protests, and analyzes data across multiple countries. The results suggest that anger, disgust, fear, happiness, sadness, and surprise occur simultaneously throughout a protest, though happiness peaks on the first day. Emotions sometimes correlate with protest size in unexpected directions, and the coefficient signs differ by country. The most consistent finding is that models without lagged terms outperform...

Aid for incumbents: the electoral consequences of COVID-19 relief

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented federal transfers to state and local governments. Did this funding benefit incumbent politicians electorally? The conditions that triggered this funding influx might also affect incumbents for other reasons. We therefore develop an instrument to predict allocations to states based on variation in congressional representation. Using over a decade of election data, we find that incumbents in state-wide races performed significantly better in 2020 and beyond in states that received more relief funding due to their overrepresentation in Congress. These results are robust across specifications and after adjusting for a variety of economic and political controls. We uncover larger effects for governors and other statewide executive office holders than for legislators, providing suggestive evidence on underlying mechanisms. This paper contributes to our understanding of economic voting during times of crisis, the downstream electoral consequences...

Threat perceptions, loyalties and attitudes towards peace: The effects of civilian victimization among Syrian refugees in Turkey

Mon, 7 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

For refugees who have fled civil conflict, do experiences of victimization by one armed group push them to support the opposing armed groups? Or, does victimization cause refugees to revoke their support for all armed groups, whatever side they are on, and call instead for peace? This paper studies the effect of civilian victimization on threat perceptions, loyalties, and attitudes toward peace in the context of Syrian refugees in Turkey, many of whom faced regime-caused violence prior to their departure. Our research strategy leverages variation in home destruction caused by barrel bombs to examine the effect of violence on refugees' views. We find that refugees who lose their home to barrel bombs withdraw support from armed actors and are more supportive of ending the war and finding peace. Suggestive evidence shows that while victims do not disengage from issues in Syria, they do show less optimism about an opposition victory.

The Effects of Proportional Representation on Election Lawmaking: Evidence from New Zealand

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

It is widely recognised that politicians are self-interested and desire election rules beneficial to their re-election. Although partisanship in electoral system reform is well-understood, the factors that affect partisan manipulation of other democratic ‘rules of the game’–including election administration, franchise laws, and campaign finance–has received little attention to date. New Zealand is so far the only established democracy to shift from a non-proportional to a proportional electoral system and thus presents an ideal case to test the effects of electoral system change on the politics of election reform. This article examines partisan and demobilising election reforms passed between 1970 and 1993 under first-past-the-post and between 1997 and 2020 under mixed-member proportional representation. Moving to a proportional system has failed to diminish the amount of partisan election lawmaking, though voting restrictions have become less common. These results should caution...

Re-Evaluating consensus in New Zealand election reform

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

It is commonly believed that a norm of consensus-based election reform exists in New Zealand. However, this belief has yet to be tested with systematic study of changes to the democratic rules of the game. This article empirically analyzes the extent to which partisan and restrictive election rules have been proposed and enacted since passage of the Electoral Act 1956. Using a novel matrix of election lawmaking, a wealth of primary textual sources, and interviews with key actors, the data show clear evidence that election reforms are routinely partisan and have occasionally curtailed democratic participation. An analysis of election lawmaking by political party reveals that Labour is responsible for most partisan election reforms, whereas National has passed most demobilising enactments. These trends extend to proposed members’ bills and across multiple governments. The findings highlight the need for scholars to take seriously the importance of a broader array of election reforms...

Black Lives Matter and the Racialized Support for the January 6th Insurrection

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Does support for the January 6th insurrection come mostly from concerned citizens worried over illegal voting, or from racists spurred to action by the highly visible Black Lives Matter protests and Donald Trump’s 2020 defeat? We field a survey experiment aimed at disentangling links between old and new racial grievances, anti-immigrant beliefs, Black activism, and support for the January 6th insurrection. We find that the people most likely to be supportive of the insurrection are whites who hold negative attitudes toward immigrants and subscribe to white replacement theory. Beliefs about the George Floyd protests also explain January 6th support, above and beyond demographics and other racial and political views. These results are validated by the 2020 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey. We also conduct a survey vignette experiment and find that anti-BLM rhetoric spread by Trump and right-wing news sources likely soured opinions on the movement and set the stage...

Beyond the Trump Presidency: The Racial Underpinnings of White Americans’ Anti-Democratic Beliefs

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

How closely related are modern anti-democratic beliefs among white Americans, and to what extent are these beliefs shaped by exclusionary racial attitudes? Using data from the Political Unrest Study, the Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (CMPS), Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape, and the Survey of the Performance of American Elections (SPAE), we find that support for voting restrictions, opposition to voting expansions, belief in widespread voter fraud, and support for overturning democratic election results load onto a single underlying dimension. While the prevalence of anti-democratic beliefs among white Americans has remained stable over the past decade, these beliefs have become increasingly interconnected. Furthermore, racial attitudes towards out-groups-including racial resentment, anti-immigrant sentiment, and white racial grievance-strongly correlate with anti-democratic beliefs, whereas in-group racial attitudes do not. Analysis of multiple waves of the...

Better individual-level risk models can improve the targeting and life-saving potential of early-mortality interventions

Fri, 7 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Infant mortality remains high and uneven in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Even low-cost, highly effective therapies can only save lives in proportion to how successfully they can be targeted to those children who, absent the treatment, would have died. This places great value on maximizing the accuracy of any targeting or means-testing algorithm. Yet, the interventions that countries deploy in hopes of reducing mortality are often targeted based on simple models of wealth or income or a few additional variables. Examining 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we illustrate the use of flexible (machine learning) risk models employing up to 25 generally available pre-birth variables from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Using these models, we construct risk scores such that the 10 percent of the population at highest risk account for 15-30 percent of infant mortality, depending on the country. Successful targeting in these models turned on several variables other than wealth, while...

Residency Blues: The Unintended Consequences of Police Residency Requirements

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Residency Blues: The Unintended Consequences of Police Residency Requirements

Government Responses to Climate Change

Thu, 7 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Social scientists should be more deliberate in how they define and measure government efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The authors highlight key distinctions among three dimensions of climate policy: the commitments made by governments, the actions that governments take, and the outcomes they produce. In turn, the authors detail the challenges of measuring these dimensions, and discuss the tradeoffs of alternative measurement strategies, including how well they meet the accepted standards for measurement validity. The authors also identify promising avenues for further research.

Politics and Justice at the International Criminal Court

Wed, 9 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract: The International Criminal Court (ICC) is a legal institution embedded in international politics. Politics shaped the Rome Statute of the ICC, which is rooted in norms and rules of European lineage and security interests of party states. Politics constrains and influences the operation of the Court, which has adapted in response to oversight and governance of the Assembly of States Parties, and to political actions extrinsic to institutional rules. The ICC also has political effects in situation states. A brief history shows that application of Rome Statute triggers across state parties with different social conditions skewed geographic distribution of its investigations and prosecutions towards Africa, a structural bias that catalysed a legitimation crisis for the ICC. Subsequent exercises of expansive jurisdiction aimed at nationals of non-African, non-party states – including Israel and some of the world's great powers – have dampened African complaints and advanced...

How State and Protester Violence Affect Protest Dynamics.

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0000

How do state and protester violence affect whether protests grow or shrink? Previous research finds conflicting results for how violence affects protest dynamics. This article argues that expectations and emotions should generate an n-shaped relationship between the severity of state repression and changes in protest size the next day. Protester violence should reduce the appeal of protesting and increase the expected cost of protesting, decreasing subsequent protest size. Since testing this argument requires precise measurements, a pipeline is built that applies convolutional neural networks to images shared in geolocated tweets. Continuously valued estimates of state and protester violence are generated per city-day for 24 cities across five countries, as are estimates of protest size and the age and gender of protesters. The results suggest a solution to the repression-dissent puzzle and join a growing body of research benefiting from the use of social media to understand subnational...

How social networks affect the repression-dissent puzzle

Sat, 14 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Scholars have offered multiple theoretical resolutions to explain inconsistent findings about the relationship of state repression and protests, but this repression-dissent puzzle remains unsolved. We simulate the spread of protest on social networks to suggest that the repression-dissent puzzle arises from the nature of statistical sampling. Even though the paper's simulations construct repression so it can only decrease protest size, the strength of repression sometimes correlates with a decrease, increase, or no change in protest size, regardless of the type of network or sample size chosen. Moreover, the results are most contradictory when the repression rate most closely matches that observed in real-world data. These results offer a new framework for understanding state and protester behavior and suggest the importance of collecting network data when studying protests.

kpop: a kernel balancing approach for reducing specification assumptions in survey weighting

Fri, 13 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0000

With the precipitous decline in response rates, researchers and pollsters have been left with highly nonrepresentative samples, relying on constructed weights to make these samples representative of the desired target population. Though practitioners employ valuable expert knowledge to choose what variables must be adjusted for, they rarely defend particular functional forms relating these variables to the response process or the outcome. Unfortunately, commonly used calibration weights-which make the weighted mean of in the sample equal that of the population-only ensure correct adjustment when the portion of the outcome and the response process left unexplained by linear functions of are independent. To alleviate this functional form dependency, we describe kernel balancing for population weighting (kpop). This approach replaces the design matrix with a kernel matrix, encoding high-order information about . Weights are then found to make the weighted average row...

Did private election administration funding advantage Democrats in 2020?

Thu, 20 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Private donors contributed more than $350 million to local election officials to support the administration of the 2020 election. Supporters argue these grants were neutral and necessary to maintain normal election operations during the pandemic, while critics worry these grants mostly went to Democratic strongholds and tilted election outcomes. How much did these grants shape the 2020 presidential election? To answer this question, we collect administrative data on private election administration grants and election outcomes. We then use advances in synthetic control methods to compare presidential election results and turnout in counties that received grants to counties with similar election results and turnout before 2020. While Democratic counties were more likely to apply for a grant, we find that the grants did not have a noticeable effect on the presidential election. Our estimates of the average effect on Democratic vote share range from 0.03 to 0.36 percentage points....

Advisers and Aggregation in Foreign Policy Decision Making

Wed, 27 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract: Do advisers affect foreign policy and, if so, how? Recent scholarship on elite decision making prioritizes leaders and the institutions that surround them, rather than the dispositions of advisers themselves. We argue that despite the hierarchical nature of foreign policy decision making, advisers’ predispositions regarding the use of force shape state behavior through the counsel advisers provide in deliberations. To test our argument, we introduce an original data set of 2,685 foreign policy deliberations between US presidents and their advisers from 1947 to 1988. Applying a novel machine learning approach to estimate the hawkishness of 1,134 Cold War–era foreign policy decision makers, we show that adviser-level hawkishness affects both the counsel that advisers provide in deliberations and the decisions leaders make: conflictual policy choices grow more likely as hawks increasingly dominate the debate, even when accounting for leader dispositions. The theory and...

The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime

Wed, 27 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime

Diversification in resource-rich Africa, 1999–2019

Wed, 31 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Diversification in resource-rich Africa, 1999–2019

How Partisan Is Local Election Administration?

Wed, 17 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

In the United States, elections are often administered by directly elected local officials who run as members of a political party. Do these officials use their office to give their party an edge in elections? Using a newly collected dataset of nearly 5,900 clerk elections and a close-election regression discontinuity design, we compare counties that narrowly elect a Democratic election administrator to those that narrowly elect a Republican. We find that Democrats and Republicans serving similar counties oversee similar election results, turnout, and policies. We also find that reelection is not the primary moderating force on clerks. Instead, clerks may be more likely to agree on election policies across parties than the general public and selecting different election policies may only modestly affect outcomes. While we cannot rule out small effects that nevertheless tip close elections, our results imply that clerks are not typically and noticeably advantaging their preferred party.

Inequality and Immigration Policy

Wed, 27 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Inequality and Immigration Policy

Migration and the Demand for Transnational Justice

Wed, 27 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Domestic courts sometimes prosecute foreign nationals for severe crimes—like crimes against humanity, genocide, torture, and war crimes—committed on foreign territory against foreign nationals. We argue that migrants can serve as agents of transnational justice. When migrants move across borders, as both economic migrants and refugees, they often pressure local governments to conduct criminal investigations and trials for crimes that occurred in their sending state. We also examine the effect of explanatory variables that have been identified by prior scholars, including the magnitude of atrocities in the sending state, the responsiveness of the receiving state to political pressure, and the various economic and political costs of prosecutions. We test our argument using the first multivariate statistical analysis of universal jurisdiction cases, focusing on multiple stages of prosecutions. We conclude that transnational justice is a justice remittance in which migrants provide...

Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Immigration Policy Making in the United States

Wed, 27 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract This article argues that immigration policy formation in the United States after 1950 can only be understood in the context of the increasing integration of world markets. Increasing trade openness has exposed firms that rely on immigrant labor to foreign competition and increased the likelihood that these firms fail. Increasing openness by other states to foreign direct investment (FDI) allowed these same firms to move production overseas. Firms' choices to close their doors or to move overseas decrease their need for labor at home, leading them to spend their political capital on issues other than immigration. Their lack of support for open immigration, in turn, allows policymakers to restrict immigration. An examination of voting behavior on immigration in the US Senate shows that the integration of world capital and goods markets has had an important effect on the politics of immigration in the United States and shows little support for existing...

How Authoritarian Governments Decide Who Emigrates: Evidence from East Germany

Wed, 27 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract: Most autocracies restrict emigration yet still allow some citizens to exit. How do these regimes decide who can leave? We argue that many autocracies strategically target anti-regime actors for emigration, thereby crafting a more loyal population without the drawbacks of persistent co-optation or repression. However, this generates problematic incentives for citizens to join opposition activity to secure exit. In response, autocracies simultaneously punish dissidents for attempting to emigrate, screening out all but the most determined opponents. To test our theory, we examine an original data set coded from over 20,000 pages of declassified emigration applications from East Germany's state archives. In the first individual-level test of an autocracy's emigration decisions, we find that active opposition promoted emigration approval but also punishment for applying. Pensioners were also more likely to secure exit, and professionals were less likely. Our results shed...

Government finance and imposition of serfdom after the Black Death

Wed, 27 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract: After the Black Death, serfdom disappeared in Western Europe while making a resurgence in Eastern Europe. What explains this difference? I argue that serfdom was against the interests of the sovereign and was only imposed when the nobility, who needed serfdom to maintain their economic and political standing, had leverage to impose their will. The nobility gained this power through financing the state. Using data from the fourteenth through the eighteenth centuries, I show that serfdom was imposed and strengthened in areas where sovereigns had few other resources to finance the state.

Left Out: How Political Ideology Affects Support for Migrants in Colombia

Wed, 27 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Left Out: How Political Ideology Affects Support for Migrants in Colombia

Justice beyond repair: Negative Dialectics and the politics of guilt and atonement

Wed, 13 Sep 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract: This article draws out a critical, yet under-appreciated political theme in Adorno’s Negative Dialectics, namely his emphasis on guilt and atonement. First, the article assesses how Adorno’s Marxism allows him to think justice and guilt beyond the familiar legalistic frame. Second, the article reconstructs Adorno’s treatment of guilt as a distinctly political capacity to imagine one’s boundedness and indebtedness to others, and the affective engine enabling us to engage in a political ethic distinct from familiar categories of reparation. Third, the article shows how the themes of guilt and atonement give us a more complete picture of Negative Dialectics. This inquiry also intervenes in contemporary debates regarding the political status and emancipatory potential latent within guilt-feelings, and claims Adorno gives us a path forward to imagine the relation between guilt and politics in a novel way.

Parental intentions to vaccinate children against COVID-19: Findings from a U.S. National Survey

Tue, 11 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0000

We examined parents' COVID-19 vaccination intentions for their children, reasons for not vaccinating, and the potential impact of a school/daycare vaccination requirement or pediatrician's recommendation on vaccination intentions. Two online surveys were conducted in June-July and September-October 2021, before pediatric COVID-19 vaccines were authorized for emergency use in children age < 12 years, with an internet-based, non-probability sample of U.S. adults. Respondents with children (age < 18 years) in the household were asked about their intention (likelihood) of vaccinating these children against COVID-19. Weighted Chi-square tests using a Rao-Scott correction were performed. Vaccinated (45.7 %) versus unvaccinated (6.9 %) parents were almost seven times more likely to have vaccinated their 12-17-year-old children against COVID-19. Approximately 58.4 % of respondents with unvaccinated children ages 2-11 years and 42.4 %...

Mask images on Twitter increase during COVID-19 mandates, especially in Republican counties

Sat, 8 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Wearing masks reduces the spread of COVID-19, but compliance with mask mandates varies across individuals, time, and space. Accurate and continuous measures of mask wearing, as well as other health-related behaviors, are important for public health policies. This article presents a novel approach to estimate mask wearing using geotagged Twitter image data from March through September, 2020 in the United States. We validate our measure using public opinion survey data and extend the analysis to investigate county-level differences in mask wearing. We find a strong association between mask mandates and mask wearing—an average increase of 20%. Moreover, this association is greatest in Republican-leaning counties. The findings have important implications for understanding how governmental policies shape and monitor citizen responses to public health crises.

Political leadership has limited impact on fossil fuel taxes and subsidies

Fri, 7 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0000

For countries to rapidly decarbonize, they need strong leadership, according to both academic studies and popular accounts. But leadership is difficult to measure, and its importance is unclear. We use original data to investigate the role of presidents, prime ministers, and monarchs in 155 countries from 1990 to 2015 in changing their countries' gasoline taxes and subsidies. Our findings suggest that the impact of leaders on fossil fuel taxes and subsidies is surprisingly limited and often ephemeral. This holds true regardless of the leader's age, gender, education, or political ideology. Rulers who govern during an economic crisis perform no better or worse than other rulers. Even presidents and prime ministers who were recognized by the United Nations for environmental leadership had no more success than other leaders in reducing subsidies or raising fuel taxes. Where leaders appear to play an important role-primarily in countries with large subsidies-their reforms often failed,...

Citizen monitoring promotes informed and inclusive forest governance in Liberia

Fri, 23 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Global forest loss depends on decisions made in the rural, often poor communities living beside the Earth's remaining forests. Governance problems in these forest-edge communities contribute to rapid deforestation and household vulnerability. In coordination with experimental studies in 5 other countries, we evaluate a program that recruits, trains, and deploys citizens to monitor communal forestland in 60 communities in rural Liberia. The year-long intervention is designed to promote more informed and inclusive resource governance, so that that citizens' preferences (and not just leaders' interests) are reflected in forest management. In our control communities, households are uninformed and disengaged; leaders' authority is unchecked. The program both engages and mobilizes community members: households are better informed and participate more in the design and enforcement of rules around forest use. They also report receiving more material benefits from outside investors' activities...

Principle ERP reduction and analysis: Estimating and using principle ERP waveforms underlying ERPs across tasks, subjects and electrodes

Wed, 7 Jun 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Event-related potentials (ERP) waveforms are the summation of many overlapping signals. Changes in the peak or mean amplitude of a waveform over a given time period, therefore, cannot reliably be attributed to a particular ERP component of ex ante interest, as is the standard approach to ERP analysis. Though this problem is widely recognized, it is not well addressed in practice. Our approach begins by presuming that any observed ERP waveform - at any electrode, for any trial type, and for any participant - is approximately a weighted combination of signals from an underlying set of what we refer to as principle ERPs, or pERPs. We propose an accessible approach to analyzing complete ERP waveforms in terms of their underlying pERPs. First, we propose the principle ERP reduction (pERP-RED) algorithm for investigators to estimate a suitable set of pERPs from their data, which may span multiple tasks. Next, we provide tools and illustrations of pERP-space analysis, whereby observed...

Language influences mass opinion toward gender and LGBT equality

Wed, 31 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000

To improve gender equality and tolerance toward lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) communities, several nations have promoted the use of gender-neutral pronouns and words. Do these linguistic devices actually reduce biases that favor men over women, gays, lesbians, and transgender individuals? The current article explores this question with 3 large-scale experiments in Sweden, which formally incorporated a gender-neutral pronoun into its language alongside established gendered pronouns equivalent to he and she The evidence shows that compared with masculine pronouns, use of gender-neutral pronouns decreases the mental salience of males. This shift is associated with individuals expressing less bias in favor of traditional gender roles and categories, as reflected in more favorable attitudes toward women and LGBT individuals in public life. Additional analyses reveal similar patterns for feminine pronouns. The influence of both pronouns is more automatic...

Greater traditionalism predicts COVID-19 precautionary behaviors across 27 societies

Wed, 10 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000

People vary both in their embrace of their society’s traditions, and in their perception of hazards as salient and necessitating a response. Over evolutionary time, traditions have offered avenues for addressing hazards, plausibly resulting in linkages between orientations toward tradition and orientations toward danger. Emerging research documents connections between traditionalism and threat responsivity, including pathogen-avoidance motivations. Additionally, because hazard-mitigating behaviors can conflict with competing priorities, associations between traditionalism and pathogen avoidance may hinge on contextually contingent tradeoffs. The COVID-19 pandemic provides a real-world test of the posited relationship between traditionalism and hazard avoidance. Across 27 societies (N = 7844), we find that, in a majority of countries, individuals’ endorsement of tradition positively correlates with their adherence to costly COVID-19-avoidance behaviors; accounting for some of the...

Policy folklists and evolutionary theory

Sat, 8 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Policy folklists present a set of alleged historical facts seen as relevant to some social issue. Although the validity of these folklists is dubious, leaders and writers circulate them in the media, variants arise, and the lists continue on, sometimes for decades. Folklists are repeated because their messages are appealing and their users are credible. Because folklists are on the record, we can examine their origins and changes. This report draws an analogy with evolutionary theory and suggests that biological mechanisms of self-repair, boundary maintenance, plasticity, speciation, and predation have significant interpretations for folklists, and clarify how the lists win the credence of otherwise skeptical people.

The Asian American Vote in 2020: Indicators of Turnout and Vote Choice

Tue, 28 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

What were the indicators of voter turnout and presidential vote choice among Asian Americans in 2020? We argue that 2020 was a unique year in which race was salient for Asian Americans due to the rise of anti-Asian attitudes attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and the opportunity to elect a vice presidential candidate of Asian descent. Because of this, racial considerations played a unique role that informed Asian American political participation and attitudes in this election. Using data from the 2020 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey, we identify the individual-level factors associated with turnout and presidential vote choice among Asian Americans. We find that stronger perceptions of racial discrimination were related to a higher likelihood of turnout and voting in support of the Democratic Party, especially among Asian immigrants relative to the native-born. This study offers new insight for when we can expect racial considerations to inform the politics of Asian...

Escape Through Export? Women-Owned Enterprises, Domestic Discrimination, and Global Markets

Wed, 22 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Escape Through Export? Women-Owned Enterprises, Domestic Discrimination, and Global Markets

Integration and Disintegration: Trade and Labor Market Integration

Wed, 22 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract After World War II, the victors—the USA and the UK—created a liberal international order (LIO) based on integrating markets for goods and capital but not labor. The decision to remove barriers to trade in goods and capital flows have had profound effects on immigration. Trade has meant the closure of businesses in developed countries that rely on low-skill labor. When these firms closed, they took their support for low-skill immigration with them. The ability of capital to move intensified this trend: whereas once firms needed to bring labor to their capital, they can now take their capital to labor. Once these firms move, they have little incentive to fight for immigration at home. Finally, increased productivity, as both a product of and response to globalization, has meant that firms can do more with fewer workers, again decreasing demands for immigration. Together, these changes have led to less business support for immigration, allowing politicians...

Emigration and Political Contestation

Wed, 22 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract How does migration affect global patterns of political violence and protest? While political scientists have examined the links between trade and conflict, less attention has been paid to the links between migration and conflict. In this paper, we show that greater emigration reduces domestic political violence by providing exit opportunities for aggrieved citizens and economic benefits to those who remain. Emigration also reduces non-violent forms of political contestation, including protests and strikes, implying that high emigration rates can produce relatively quiescent populations. However, larger flows of emigrants to democracies can increase non-violent protest in autocracies, as exposure to freer countries spreads democratic norms and the tools of peaceful opposition. We use instrumental variables analysis to account for the endogeneity of migration flows and find robust results for a range of indicators of civil violence and protest from 1960 to 2010.

Immigration and Globalization (and Deglobalization)

Wed, 22 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Immigration policy is often portrayed as a zero-sum trade-off between labor and capital or between high- and low-skilled labor. Many have attributed the rise of populist politicians and populist movements to immigrants and/or immigration policy. While immigration has distributional implications, we argue that something is clearly missing from the discussion: the fact that migrants are an engine of globalization, especially for countries in the Global South. Migration and migrant networks serve to expand economic markets, distribute information across national borders, and diffuse democratic norms and practices throughout the world, increasing trade and investment flows. We further argue that many commentators have got the causal relationship backward: Instead of immigration reducing support for globalization, we argue that trade, financial flows, and offshoring have reduced support for immigration among the elite and a vocal plurality of citizens in the Global North.

Why Do Governments Tax or Subsidize Fossil Fuels?

Wed, 14 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Why Do Governments Tax or Subsidize Fossil Fuels?

Pre-Analysis Plans: An Early Stocktaking