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    <title>Recent ucsb items</title>
    <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/ucsb/rss</link>
    <description>Recent eScholarship items from UC Santa Barbara</description>
    <pubDate>Wed, 29 Jul 2026 01:10:11 +0000</pubDate>
    <item>
      <title>Increased aluminum exposure induces widespread changes in silicon, carbon, and nitrogen metabolism in Entomoneis vertebralis</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7cr6h1q3</link>
      <description>BackgroundDiatoms are a class of algae that play an essential role in global ecology and produce valuable chemicals. They are known for forming intricate nanostructured silica cell walls (frustules). The introduction of non-siliceous elements like aluminum into diatoms induces properties such as a lower dissolution rate of the frustule, increasing the specific surface area of the frustule and enhancing metabolism. Previous studies have focused primarily on characterizing physiological impacts, leaving the genetic response(s) to non-siliceous elements largely unexplored.ResultsThis study investigates the transcriptional response of the pennate diatom, Entomoneis vertebralis to dissolved aluminum. Our findings reveal that in the presence of added 10&amp;nbsp;µM aluminum, biogenic silica content of the cell wall increases approximately twofold along with significant changes to core metabolism. An increase in transcription of genes encoding nitrate transporters has been observed despite...</description>
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      <pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Ragunathan, Ramya</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Purdy, Hugh M</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Seppala, Susanna</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Gwak, Hosu</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Calhoun, Sara</name>
        <uri>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2942-1338</uri>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Twining, Benjamin S</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Grigoriev, Igor V</name>
        <uri>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3136-8903</uri>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Chmelka, Bradley F</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Brzezinski, Mark A</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>O’Malley, Michelle A</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Do Tax Credits Increase Heat Pump Adoption?</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6808030m</link>
      <description>&amp;nbsp;Economists have long argued that many recipients of clean energy subsidies are likelynon-additional, but there are relatively few empirical studies. This paper uses U.S.monthly shipment data to test whether income tax credits increase heat pump adop­tion. When the tax credit increased from $300 to $2000 in January 2023, there was no increase in shipments. Then, when the tax credit expired in January 2026, there was no decrease in shipments. This lack of a discernible relationship persists after controllingfor seasonal patterns, energy prices, and housing starts. The evidence suggests thatmost recipients of the $2000 tax credit were non-additional, and would have installeda heat pump even without the subsidy. The paper discusses implications for policydesign, economic efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. Finally, the paper points out thatheat pump shipments continue at a strong pace thus far in 2026 even without the taxcredit, with large benefits for the environment.</description>
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      <pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Are Consumers Myopic? Evidence from New and Used Car Purchases</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9qc3b4pr</link>
      <description>We investigate whether car buyers are myopic about future fuel costs. We estimate the effect of gasoline prices on short-run equilibrium prices of cars of different fuel economies. We then compare the implied changes in willingness-to-pay to the associated changes in expected future gasoline costs for cars of different fuel economies in order to calculate implicit discount rates. Using different assumptions about annual mileage, survival rates, and demand elasticities, we calculate a range of implicit discount rates similar to the range of interest rates paid by car buyers who borrow. We interpret this as showing little evidence of consumer myopia.</description>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Busse, Meghan R</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Knittel, Christopher R</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Zettelmeyer, Florian</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>If You Build It, They May Not Come: Willingness to Participate in Managed EV Charging</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9cc2d2d2</link>
      <description>Despite the importance of program participation for policy, treatment effects are often measured on self-selected samples. We study electric vehicle (EV) managed charging, intended to reduce electric grid strain by optimally allocating charging across EVs. Prior work finds large impacts of managed charging among households who volunteer for an RCT. In contrast, we test managed charging with an experiment including all EVs within a California utility. Enrollment is low even with high incentives, and we can reject even modest intent-to-treat effects on electricity consumption. Managed charging is less effective than previously thought, underscoring the value of population-wide experiments.</description>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Burlig, Fiona</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Bushnell, James</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Rapson, David</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Why Did Air Conditioning Adoption Accelerate Faster Than Predicted? Evidence from Mexico</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/91d1k0bk</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;A common theme in the vast literature on climate change is the estimation of models using historical data to make predictions many decades into the future. Although there is a large and growing number of these types of studies, researchers rarely return later to check the accuracy of their predictions. In this paper, we perform such an exercise. In Davis and Gertler (2015), we used household-level microdata from Mexico to predict future air conditioning adoption as a function of income and temperature. Revisiting these predictions with 12 years of additional data, we find that air conditioning in Mexico has accelerated, significantly exceeding our predictions. Neither errors in predicting income growth or rising temperatures, nor migration patterns, nor an overly restrictive model can explain the large prediction gap. Instead, our results point to the failure to account for falling electricity prices and technological changes in air conditioner efficiency as key drivers of...</description>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Gertler, Paul</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Competing for (In)attention: Price Discrimination in Residential Electricity Markets</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8df9n3tk</link>
      <description>This paper studies the causes and consequences of pricing heterogeneity in markets for residential electricity, a nearly homogeneous good. I uncover adverse efficiency and distributional impacts of competition when consumers face heterogeneous search frictions. I show that consumers pay different prices for electricity in the same market, with low-income households and marginalized communities paying systematically higher electricity prices than their higher-income counterparts. These pricing patterns are consistent with a model of firms price discriminating on search frictions through marketing. Using data from Baltimore, I estimate a structural model that shows that this marketing leads to an annual welfare loss of 14% of industry-wide variable costs. Despite having only slightly larger search frictions, low-income households pay substantially higher prices than high-income households primarily due to lower marketing costs in low-income communities. Auxiliary analyses rule out...</description>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Kahn-Lang, Jenya</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Do Time-of-Use Prices Deliver Energy Savings at the Right Time?</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7q81c9hm</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Time-of-use (TOU) electricity prices are increasingly being adopted to reduce consumption during the higher marginal cost afternoon hours. There is ample evidence that TOU rates reduce average consumption during the peak price hours of the day, but it is unknown how these energy savings are distributed across days. Using a unique dataset from households with smart thermostats, we find that adopting TOU rates causes large decreases in peak period AC usage, resulting in energy savings that are concentrated on the hottest, highest demand days when the benefits of conservation are the greatest.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7q81c9hm</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Fu, Zheng</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Novan, Kevin</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Smith, Aaron</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Understanding Support for Cost-Ineffective Environmental Policy Instruments</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6633f4gv</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Many governments use environmental standards rather than more cost-effective market-based instruments like pollution taxes or cap-and-trade markets. Using a nationally representative survey experiment, we study whether and why limited understanding of economic principles helps explain this practice. Holding environmental impacts constant, respondents prefer standards over market-based instruments, and prefer producer taxes and cap-and-trade over consumer taxes. These preferences reflect consumers’ beliefs about how these policies will affect electricity bills. Respondents also prefer the weakest environmental targets for consumer taxes and the strongest targets for standards, which suggests that policymakers face a tradeoff between policy stringency and cost effectiveness. A separate survey of environmental economists shows that they have strikingly different beliefs about the effects of environmental policies than the respondents in our representative survey. For example,...</description>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Jiang, Chenxi</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Lauletta, Maximiliano</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Levy, Ro’ee</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Shapiro, Joseph S</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Taubinsky, Dmitry</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Effects of the Proposed New California SAF Tax Credit</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5nt0q0bg</link>
      <description>In Wu et al. (2025), we developed a detailed partial equilibrium model of road and air transportation fuel markets to compare policy options to incentivize the deployment of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). We used the model to examine policy options for meeting a 3 billion gallon annual SAF target by 2030, which would result in SAF comprising about 12% of U.S. jet fuel consumption in that year. This goal, whether formally adopted or not, represents a useful near-term benchmark along a meaningful path toward decarbonizing aviation and appears to be feasible from a technological perspective. In this note, we add California’s proposed SAF tax credit to the model and evaluate the effects on fuel prices, volumes and emissions. See Wu et al. (2025) for details on the model.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5nt0q0bg</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Wu, Mengying</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>McCormack, Kristen</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Scott, William A</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Smith, Aaron</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Zhang, Jingran</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Stock, James H</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Profiting from Regulation: An Event Study of the European Carbon Market</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5nj5r5zk</link>
      <description>We investigate the effect of cap-and-trade regulation on firm profits by performing an event study of the EU CO2 price crash. We examine returns for 124 carbon-intensive stocks and over 400 additional stocks, all from the broad EUROSTOXX index. Despite a reduction in environmental costs, we find that stocks fell for firms in carbon-intensive industries. We find similar effects for firms in electricity-intensive industries. The effects are most pronounced for firms that sell primarily within the EU. Our results imply that investors focus on product price impacts, rather than just compliance costs. We find evidence that firms’ net allowance positions also strongly influenced the share price response to the decline in allowance prices.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5nj5r5zk</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Bushnell, James B.</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Chong, Howard</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Mansur, Erin T</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Trouble with Green Subsidies</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5476p53p</link>
      <description>This paper explores the efficiency consequences of pursuing pollution reduction through a reliance on green subsidies rather than pollution taxes. It presents a stylized model of “subsidy-first” policy in which subsidies are rationalized by missing or incomplete taxes on some goods. It delineates five sources of inefficiency in subsidies, several of which relate to information requirements. In the model, green subsidies are justified because they induce substitution away from dirtier alternatives. Thus, subsidies hinge on counterfactuals, which creates information challenges analogous to the additionality problem. Insights from the model are used to comment on the Inflation Reduction Act.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5476p53p</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Sallee, James</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Variation in the production of te reo Māori opening vowel sequences</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/521086z8</link>
      <description>Variation in the production of te reo Māori opening vowel sequences</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/521086z8</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Culhane, Kirsten</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Hay, Jennifer</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Todd, Simon</name>
        <uri>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2665-5737</uri>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Sóskuthy, Márton</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Osborne, Allie</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Harris, Penny</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Maindonald, Kate</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>King, Jeanette</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Panther, Forrest</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Keegan, Peter J</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Groundwater and Crop Choice in the Short and Long Run</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4xg637rp</link>
      <description>How do agents respond to policy when investments have high upfront costs and lasting payoffs? We estimate farmers’ short- and long-run responses to changes in groundwater pumping costs in California—where perennial crops with these features are prevalent, and where groundwater pumps consume 6% of the state’s electricity. We use both fixed effects and dynamic discrete choice models that leverage quasi-experimental variation in agricultural electricity tariffs. In the short run, farmers’ groundwater (electricity) demand elasticity is −0.76 (−0.72), and they do not change crops. In contrast, the long-run groundwater (electricity) elasticity is −0.36 (−0.37), driven in part by meaningful reductions in water intensive perennial cropping. Meeting California’s sustainability targets would require reallocation of 9% of acres, including a 50% increase in fallowing. This would also reduce electricity consumption for this end-use by nearly 20%.</description>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Burlig, Fiona</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Preonas, Louis</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Woerman, Matt</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Utilizing Noncoincident Needs to Site Data Centers with Solar+Storage at Existing Gas Plants</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4kf8w5pc</link>
      <description>Data centers and large electricity loads are power hungry, raising concerns about higher electricity costs, increased emissions, and reliability risks. We show that co-locating solar+storage systems with underutilized natural gas plants offers a practical, near-term pathway for reliable, low-cost industrial power. Using eight years of hourly weather data, we co-optimize load and hybrid solar+storage+gas configurations at 68 existing plants near data center developments, meeting over 95% of demand with solar+storage. Across these sites, levelized costs range from $60-138/MWh, competitive with data centers’ recent contract prices for 24/7 clean power. Conflict analysis indicates minimal overlap between solar+storage backup needs and grid stress across most regions of the United States today, allowing gas units to provide dual roles: facilitating large load integration while supporting grid reliability. By optimizing existing infrastructure, this approach offers a scalable pathway...</description>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Chojkiewicz, Emilia</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Manocha, Aneesha</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Paliwal, Umed</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Callaway, Duncan</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Phadke, Amol</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Competitive Effects of Entry in Gasoline Markets</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/42z9g4n4</link>
      <description>We use panel data on the location, prices, and quality of the universe of gas stations in Mexico to study the competitive effects of entry on incumbent firms. Using more than 1,000 entry events and defining local markets based on the road network, we find that the entry of a new station within three minutes driving time decreases regular gasoline prices by 6 percent of the retail price spread. Competitive effects decline with travel time and are largest in markets that previously had only one station. Entry of stations with the same owner as the incumbent has near-zero effects on price. In addition, we find that entry increases the service quality of incumbents, with fewer customer complaints.</description>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>McRae, Shaun</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Seira, Enrique</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Dynamic Grid Management Technologies Reduce Wildfire Adaptation Costs in the Electric Power Sector</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/40q9q5px</link>
      <description>Wildfire is among the fastest-growing economic risks of climate change, yet strategies to adapt cost-effectively remain under-explored. In the electric power sector, where ignitions have triggered some of the most destructive wildfires on record, utilities are investing heavily to mitigate risk. This study evaluates the cost, reliability, and risk reduction benefits of the largest utility wildfire mitigation program in the U.S. Using detailed weather and vegetation data for 25,000 miles of high-risk powerlines, we develop a prediction model to estimate ignition risk and compare outcomes across locations with similar risk that received different interventions. With this quasi experimental design, we find that a new strategy that dynamically adjusts protective device sensitivity during elevated wildfire conditions reduces risk more cost-effectively than conventional measures such as burying powerlines underground or trimming vegetation. By combining models of wildfire risk, costs,...</description>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Warner, Cody</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Callaway, Duncan</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Fowlie, Meredith</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Does Regulation Distort Exit Decisions? Evidence from U.S. Power Plants</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3pv9n5v9</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Hundreds of power plants have closed in the United States since 2010, including 130+ gigawatts of coal and 50+ gigawatts of natural gas. In this paper, we highlight the potential for regulation to distort this type of exit decision. Using generator-level data from 2010–2023, we show that regulated units have been 45% less likely to exit than unregulated units. For unregulated units, exit decisions are made based on wholesale electricity prices, ongoing capital costs, and other traditional economic factors. In contrast, owners of regulated units are largely insulated from these factors and, in some cases, have a strong incentive to continue operating capital-intensive equipment. Previous work documents how this regulatory distortion affects investment decisions. Our paper emphasizes that these same incentives affect exit decisions as well.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Weber, Paige</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Distributional Effects of U.S. Tax Credits for Heat Pumps, Solar Panels, and Electric Vehicles</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3j68t131</link>
      <description>U.S. households have received over $47 billion in tax credits since 2006 for heat pumps, solar panels, electric vehicles, and other “clean energy” technologies. Using information from tax returns, we show that these tax credits have gone predominantly to higher-income filers. The bottom three income quintiles have received about 10% of all credits, while the top quintile has received about 60%. The most extreme is the tax credit for electric vehicles, for which the top quintile has received more than 80%. These patterns have changed little over time. We then present evidence on cost effectiveness and discuss broader economic considerations.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3j68t131</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Borenstein, Severin</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Deep Learning Projects Jurisdiction of New and Proposed Clean Water Act Regulation</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3bd9s7g4</link>
      <description>Projecting the effects of proposed policy reforms is challenging because no outcome data exist for regulations that governments have not yet implemented. We propose an ex ante deep learning framework that can project effects of proposed reforms by mapping outcomes observed under past regulations onto the legal criteria of proposed future policies (i.e., by “relabeling”). We apply this framework to study changes in jurisdiction of the US Clean Water Act (CWA), which regulates many sites used for renewable and fossil energy, transmission lines and pipelines, transportation infrastructure, and other types of land use. We compare our ex ante deep learning projection of jurisdiction under the Supreme Court’s Sackett decision against widely used projections from domain experts. Ex ante machine learning generates exceptional performance improvements over the leading domain expert model that the US Environmental Protection Agency currently uses, with 65 times more accurate identification...</description>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Greenhill, Simon</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Walker, Brant J</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Shapiro, Joseph S</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Machine Learning Predicts Which Rivers, Streams, and Wetlands the Clean Water Act Regulates</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/31c855v4</link>
      <description>We assess which waters the Clean Water Act protects and how Supreme Court and White House rules change this regulation. We train a deep learning model using aerial imagery and geophysical data to predict 150,000 jurisdictional determinations from the Army Corps of Engineers, each deciding regulation for one water resource. Under a 2006 Supreme Court ruling, the Clean Water Act protects two-thirds of US streams and over half of wetlands; under a 2020 White House rule, it protects under half of streams and a fourth of wetlands, implying deregulation of 690,000 stream miles, 35 million wetland acres, and 30% of waters around drinking water sources. Our framework can support permitting, policy design, and use of machine learning in regulatory implementation problems.</description>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Greenhill, Simon</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Druckenmiller, Hannah</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Wang, Sherrie</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Keiser, David A</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Girotto, Manuela</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Moore, Jason K</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Yamaguchi, Nobuhiro</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Todeschini, Alberto</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Shapiro, Joseph S</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Environmental Costs and Geography of U.S. Data Center Expansion</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2ts9g6jj</link>
      <description>Data centers powering artificial intelligence are growing rapidly across the United States, raising concerns among policymakers and local communities about their environmental and social costs. These costs depend on where data centers locate, and strategic siting has been proposed as a way to limit them. Using a comprehensive facility-level dataset of past, operational, and announced U.S. data centers, we characterize how the environmental and community characteristics of data center locations evolve over 2010–2030. We quantify how much of the projected growth in environmental damages can be attributed to changes in data center locations versus growth in power requirements. Decomposing projected carbon emissions and monetized local air pollution damages into scale and location-driven composition effects, we find that over 2010–2025, composition changes reduced carbon and local air pollution damages by 4 and 12%, respectively. Over 2024–2030, scale accounts for approximately 97%...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2ts9g6jj</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Hernandez-Cortes, Danae</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Meng, Kyle</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Weber, Paige</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Effects of “Buy American”: Electric Vehicles and the Inflation Reduction Act</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2j6423ws</link>
      <description>We provide the first ex post microeconomic welfare analysis of the electric vehicle (EV) tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Relative to pre-IRA policy, the credits generated $1.96 in domestic benefits per dollar of government spending, with taxpayer cost of $36,500 per additional EV. Relative to having no EV credits, they yielded $1.11 in domestic benefits per dollar of government spending. A leasing loophole that sidestepped domestic content rules created negative domestic benefits. A prominent example of green industrial policy, the credits harmed foreign countries by shifting surplus to domestic producers and helped them by decreasing CO2 emissions.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2j6423ws</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Allcott, Hunt</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Kane, Reigner</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Maydanchik, Maximilian S</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Shapiro, Joseph S</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Tintelnot, Felix</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Benefits, Costs, and Distributional Outcomes in an Environmental Market</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2162289d</link>
      <description>We study the benefits, abatement costs, and distributional outcomes of the EPA’s NOx Budget Program, a seasonal cap-and-trade market for NOx emissions. Using a new empirical approach, we recover source-specific marginal abatement cost curves and combine them with source-specific air pollution damages to quantify market outcomes. We find that abatement costs under the market are roughly one-sixth those of an abatement-equivalent non-market policy. Despite these large differences in aggregate costs, the market and the non-market policy yield similar air quality benefits, both in overall magnitude and across demographic groups. We show that these results reflect the weak correlation between source-specific marginal damages and abatement behavior.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2162289d</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Deschenes, Olivier</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Weber, Paige</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Can Vertically Integrated Firms Evade Pricing Regulation? Evidence from Energy Utilities</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0sw100xk</link>
      <description>Vertical mergers can be used by a natural monopoly subject to cost-based price regulation to evade regulation: when regulators allow increases in input costs to be passed onto customers, a monopolist that is vertically integrated with an input supplier can earn profits by inflating input costs. I test for evidence of evasion by US electric and natural gas utilities through their purchase of interstate natural gas pipeline capacity. Building a novel data set of the vertical relationships of natural gas pipelines, I find incentives for evasion are widespread in this industry: 53% of US households with gas heating purchase gas from a utility that is affiliated with a natural gas pipeline. I leverage variation in buyers’ vertical relationships with pipelines and exposure to regulation to test whether evasion incentives cause buyers to inflate input costs. Results show that evasion incentives lead buyers to inflate costs by overbuilding pipeline capacity: capacity under contract with...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0sw100xk</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Safavi, Leila</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Global Policy Spillovers: How Environmental Policies Propagate through Product Attributes</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0s9827vv</link>
      <description>How should policymakers evaluate policy impacts when firms design products for global mar kets? Standard economic analyses typically focus on domestic outcomes, implicitly assuming that policies affect only the jurisdiction in which they are enacted. Yet multinational firms often harmonize product design across markets, creating the potential for policies implemented in one country to generate global spillovers through changes in product attributes. We call this phenomenon “attribute propagation” and develop a framework to measure and assess its quantitative importance. Applying this framework to an environmental policy affecting auto mobiles, we find that a fuel-economy subsidy in Japan led to significant improvements in the fuel economy of vehicles sold in the United States. We then develop a model of multinational automobile markets featuring cross-market cost complementarity as a key mechanism driving attribute propagation. Using the estimated model, we conduct counterfactual...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0s9827vv</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Ito, Koichiro</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Sallee, James M</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Smith, Andrew</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>How Much Has Shale Gas Saved U.S. Consumers?</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0s91f0wr</link>
      <description>It may seem like a distant memory now, but as of the mid-2000s, U.S. natural gas production had been flat for a decade, and the U.S. was importing liquefied natural gas (LNG), with plans to import much more. Then shale gas happened. Advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling caused U.S. natural gas production to increase significantly, and the U.S. went from being a net importer of natural gas to being the world’s largest exporter. This paper calculates how much shale gas has saved U.S. natural gas consumers. Using price differences between the United States, Europe and Japan, we calculate that U.S. natural gas consumers have saved $3.1-$4.3 trillion between 2007 and 2025, equivalent to $164-$227 billion annually. Access to low-price U.S. natural gas has been particularly valuable during major supply shocks such as the war in Ukraine, and the benefits of shale gas have been experienced broadly across sectors and states.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0s91f0wr</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Queer Asian American Women’s Search For Identity, Belonging, and Community</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/93v6j1q8</link>
      <description>Queer Asian American (QASAM) women often have difficulty finding spaces that are accepting of their intersecting identities as both queer women and as Asian Americans. Because mainstream queer spaces are not inclusive for people of color and women, and many ethnic spaces are not accepting of queer identities, QASAM women often do not feel a sense of belonging in the community and social spaces that already exist. Through survey methods of 50 participants and in-depth interviews from 8 of those survey participants, this study investigates QASAM women’s perceptions of identity, relationships with their families, experiences in their ethnic communities, and experiences in gender/sexuality communities to help understand the strategies QASAM women deploy to build hybrid spaces and communities for themselves. This study provides insight into QASAM women’s community building by analyzing the ways in which they transition between ethnic communities and queer communities, how they create...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/93v6j1q8</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Gall, Taylor</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Role of Fulfillment in Undergraduate Learning Assistant Professional Development</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8nq742tk</link>
      <description>This qualitative study examines the developmental outcomes of Undergraduate Learning Assistants (ULAs) in three STEM departments (Psychology, Statistics, Chemistry) at a large public institution. The purpose is to understand how fulfillment in the ULA role relates to ULAs reported professional development. Thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews (n=10) revealed fulfillment as a central theme in the ULA experience, based on participants' accounts of sense of purpose, enjoyment, and perceived impact in their role. This sense of fulfillment provided the foundation for professional skill development like communication, confidence, leadership, and networking. Findings highlight the importance of emotional dimensions in shaping professional identity and suggest that peer-instructional programs should be intentionally designed to cultivate connection and meaning for all participants.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8nq742tk</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Flaherty, Haley</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Assessing the Effectiveness of Puberty Blockers in Gender-Affirming Care for Adolescents: A Systematic Review</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8gg0p6qk</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Many claim that puberty suppression is an unsafe and unnecessary treatment for transgender adolescents to leverage support for limiting policies for gender-affirming care. This review establishes an overview of research on puberty blockers to evaluate the treatment’s effectiveness and risks for gender dysphoric adolescents. Studies confirmed the necessity of puberty-blocking treatment after discovering that gender dysphoric individuals who do not receive treatment are significantly more likely to have suicidal ideation compared to individuals who have received treatment. Studies also found that puberty blockers are effective in reaching their desired functions as they lower the need for gender-affirming hormones, slow the development of secondary characteristics, and surpass their expected effective durations. Puberty blockers only posed a few serious risks to the individual's health, mainly a risk to bone health. However, most studies have not been able to define the severity...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8gg0p6qk</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Susas, Maris</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Physiological Alcohol Dependence Alters Risk-Taking Behavior in Drosophila melanogaster Larvae</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8d1220k3</link>
      <description>Alcohol use disorder alters cognition, risk evaluation, and behavior across species. Drosophila melanogaster larvae are innately attracted to ethanol in nature, where moderate concentrations enhance fitness but higher levels increase mortality. Their conserved alcohol tolerance and withdrawal phenotypes make them a tractable model for studying how dependence alters survival-relevant decision-making. We investigated how alcohol dependence and withdrawal impact larval risk-taking using the dig-and-dive assay, where larvae explore agarose chambers under hypoxic conditions guided by odor gradients. We hypothesized that acute ethanol exposure would suppress exploration, while ethanol-dependent larvae in withdrawal would show hyperexcitability characterized by increased surfacing, decreased digging, and similar levels of diving. Canton-S larvae were chronically exposed to 5% ethanol food for six days to establish dependence, then either tested immediately (inebriated group) or after...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8d1220k3</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Lee, Rachel</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Mother and Child: Gender Ambiguity and Fluidity in Ancient Mesoamerica</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7mj8195r</link>
      <description>In this paper I consider how gender was expressed in ancient Mesoamerican figurines. I focus on a Nayarit figurine (300 BCE-300 CE) from UCSB’s Art, Architecture and Design Museum, considering its physical attributes, physique and clothing in reference to other Mesoamerican sculptures. The artwork’s gender ambiguity reflects a more dynamic role of gender in ancient Mesoamerica; one not confined to biological characteristics but rooted in broader cultural and societal values.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7mj8195r</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Craig, Akela</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Connecting the Dots: Pinpointing Hotspots of Harmful Algal Blooms on the California Coast and Analyzing the Applicability of Common Mitigation Methods</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/74t749zd</link>
      <description>Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a conglomeration of algal cells that can release toxins that worsen water quality, kill marine life, and ultimately endanger human health. Species of the diatoms in the Pseudo-nitzschia genus, which produce the marine neurotoxin domoic acid, are largely responsible for toxic blooms along the US West Coast. Ocean acidification, increased water temperatures, intensified precipitation unpredictability, and increased water stratification – all caused by global warming – are each linked to increases in domoic acid production in species of Pseudo-nitzschia. In response to HABs, statewide agencies issue advisories against eating certain seafood species and may formally close important commercial and recreational fisheries. These closures can last for months, shortening the fishing season, and costing millions of dollars in revenue or lost days of recreational fishing opportunities. To ease statewide fisheries management and support coastal communities,...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/74t749zd</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Puchkova, Isabella</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Political Moral Violations on Social Media: How Emotional Responses Shape Political Cynicism</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/74h7813r</link>
      <description>The rise of social media has fundamentally reshaped the political information environment. Citizens now regularly encounter political content on platforms where messaging is designed to evoke strong emotional reactions that drive virality. This study investigates whether short-form video content depicting moral violations committed by politicians increases political cynicism through the activation of negative emotions (anger, disgust, and outrage). A between-subjects survey experiment was conducted testing whether exposure to a moral violation committed by a politician increases political cynicism via emotional activation. It also examines whether the effect is stronger when the violator is a member of the viewer’s out-party rather than their in-party. Results show that moral violations increased political cynicism through negative emotions. Group identity did not alter the strength of these effects. Given the established association between political cynicism and reduced political...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/74h7813r</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Hawkes, Shay</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Husmann and Phylloxera: An Early Window into Napa’s Future</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/53t1384s</link>
      <description>This article recenters Napa Valley's rise by challenging the dominant narrative that defines its history through luxury, refinement, and economic success. Instead, I argue that Napa's transformation in the late nineteenth century can only be understood through an analytic framework that links three histories often examined separately: ecological change, working-class experience, and capitalist consolidation. Using the period between 1880 and 1905 as a critical window, the paper adopts a multispecies, history-from-below approach to show how phylloxera's disruption of grapevines, the social effects of widespread brandy consumption among immigrant laborers, and the creation of exclusive wine cooperatives formed the foundations of Napa's modern identity.Rather than treating environmental issues, public disorder, and business organization as separate developments, this article demonstrates that they worked together as interdependent forces that shaped the region's image, economy, and...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/53t1384s</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Smith, Olivia</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Sustaining Attention with Varying Response Frequencies</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4fp585gx</link>
      <description>Sustaining attention has shown to be increasingly difficult over time, and it has become important to understand how task demands impact the maintenance of focus on any given task. Sustained attention tasks using both high and low target frequencies have measured declining performance over time. This project investigates, within a single task, how target frequency (high: 90%, low: 10%, intermediate: 50%) impacts different measures of sustained attention performance when subjects continuously monitor for subtle visual targets. As predicted, higher target frequencies showed higher false alarm rates, along with significant increases in participant responding and decreases in response times. Further, increases in target frequency predicted changes in attention, such as increased difficulty distinguishing targets from noise and a more liberal response bias. This suggests that the type of sustained attention task, in respect to target frequency, may influence subjects’ sustained attention....</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4fp585gx</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Ruacho, Isabel</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Psychedelics: Friend or Foe? Perceived Parental Attitudes, Use, and Current Personal Attitudes Toward Classic Hallucinogens</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4dz5n0b9</link>
      <description>This project investigates relationships between parental attitudes toward classic hallucinogens (i.e., LSD, psilocybin, and mescaline) during adolescence, frequency of personal hallucinogen use, and current attitudes toward hallucinogens from the perspective of recreational psychedelic users. Previous literature highlights self-reported benefits, spiritual experiences, and less harm in comparison to other substances when reporting on recreational classic hallucinogen use. However, the associations of parental communication and level of familial religious affiliation with current relationships involving hallucinogens have seldom been investigated. 120 participants took a web-based survey on Qualtrics marketed on Prolific regarding the parental communication involving classic hallucinogens during adolescence, first age of use, current frequency of use, and personal attitudes toward legality, medical value, and safety of hallucinogenic substances. In comparison with infrequent hallucinogen...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4dz5n0b9</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Ibarra, Citlali A</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Surveying Multiethnic Undergraduate Students at UCSB About Ethnic Studies</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3nx8v9rb</link>
      <description>The purpose of this study is to gain insight into how mixed (multiracial and multiethnic) students at UC Santa Barbara experience, interact with, and perceive Ethnic Studies at the university. We will derive conclusions about how mixed students measure their sense of belonging and representation in Ethnic Studies, as well as gather data on how Ethnic Studies impacts their identity, class participation, and other performances. We hope our findings provide important information on the role that Ethnic Studies plays for multiethnic UCSB students, as well as how campus can potentially be a more inclusive and intersectional space.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3nx8v9rb</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Park, Julia</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Expectations about plant edibility in 6-month-old infants</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3hg4s5m6</link>
      <description>Watching what others put in their mouths is a powerful way to learn what to eat. Yet human diets and eating behaviors are complicated, and not everything that goes into another person's mouth is food: The fusilli is edible, but the fork is not. Therefore, some selectivity is necessary to guide social learning processes about food. Here we examined 6-month-old infants' expectations about what kinds of entities are likely to be edible using a violation-of-expectation setup in which infants viewed an actor eating from two different items. We hypothesized that infants may have selective edibility expectations about plants, and in particular fruits, that stem from humans' long evolutionary history of foraging wild plant foods and specialization in higher caloric density plant parts. In Experiment 1 (N&amp;nbsp;=&amp;nbsp;40), we found that infants expect plants, relative to feature-matched artifacts, to be edible, replicating a previous finding [Wertz &amp;amp; Wynn, 2014a ]. In Experiments 2...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3hg4s5m6</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Rioux, Camille</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Wertz, Annie E</name>
        <uri>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2145-5189</uri>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Political Emotions:Undergraduate Experiences and Expressions of Political Grief</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/38v7f5rx</link>
      <description>Grief is a complex emotion brought about by both perceived and actual losses that can profoundly shape an individual. In the context of politics, one’s experience, processing, and expression of grief has significant impacts on our understanding of disenfranchised grief and invisible loss. These dynamics affect individuals who experience grief outside the conventional frameworks of recognition, validation, and support. The present study uses in-depth interviews to gain insight into how college students experience and express their grief in relation to politics with those who both share and conflict in values. Findings suggest strong parallels between the experience of political grief and traditional grief while highlighting differences in how individuals navigate these conversations across a political divide. Participants’ willingness to express grief relating to the election with those that disagree with them politically varied depending on their perception of the permanence of...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/38v7f5rx</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Li, Michelle E</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Bonds That Ground Us: A Mixed-Methods, Cross-Cultural Exploratory Study on the Psychological Construct “Place Attachment"</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2d2928kr</link>
      <description>This mixed-methods, cross-cultural exploratory research study investigates the construct of place attachment by integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches across diverse geographic and cultural contexts. Study 1 employed focus groups in the United States, Spain, and Singapore to identify core predictors of emotional bonds to place, including autonomy, psychological security, personal growth, and social belonging. Thematic analyses revealed autonomy in movement, safety, opportunities for self-development, and cultural fit as key factors shaping attachment to meaningful places. Study 2 quantitatively examined these predictors using a Place Attachment Scale and Place Attachment Predictors Scale in a sample of 150 U.S.-based adult participants, stratified by ethnicity and migration background. Results from correlational and regression analyses demonstrated moderate to strong associations between attachment and predictors such as self-sufficiency, cultural belonging, community...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2d2928kr</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Gil de Bernabe, Olivia L</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Maize, Ritual, and Resistance: Identifying Nixtamalization at Ancient East St. Louis</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/26v749zn</link>
      <description>Maize has been a significant part of the North American diet for over 2000 years. Archaeological work has placed the origins of maize in the Midwest Native American diet at c. 900 CE; this timeline is based on the identification of maize kernels and cobs. Since humans began domesticating maize nearly 10,000 years ago, they have invented many ways to cook and process the plant. One of the many ways including a process called nixtamalization, which consists of soaking and boiling maize in a solution to enhance its nutritional value producing foods such as tortillas and hominy. To find evidence of this process, we apply the findings from archaeologists Johnson and Marston (2020) who conducted experimental analysis of nixtamalized maize to our analysis. The objective of this research project is to analyze ceramic samples from the pre-colonial Illinois site of East St Louis (ESTL) to identify the first direct evidence of nixtamalization in the Midwest region. The ceramics were washed...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/26v749zn</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Tucker, Summer</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Artistic Identity in a Material World: Qualities of Kashan Ceramics in 12th Century Iran</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/23k0c2r1</link>
      <description>Kashan, Iran’s long-lasting legacy as a major hub of artistic innovation and influence in the Middle East began around the early 12th century. Kashani ceramicists are credited with perfecting the practice of glazed fritware, with unrivaled production at an industrial scale as well as artistic paramount of the medium. UCSB’s AD&amp;amp;A Museum collection contains several Kashani ceramic vessels, allowing us to bear witness to one of the most historically rich regions in the world through the lens of the artisans. However, the vessels in the museum’s collection have very little provenance or research attached to them. The goals of this research are to first build a foundation of knowledge surrounding the creation of this type of vessel, then identify key aspects of the Kashani ceramic pitcher through close visual analysis that link it to other ceramic vessels of the time. In doing so, this allows us to contemplate the significance of these vessels and their influence on other Middle...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/23k0c2r1</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Lankarani, Caroline</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Effects of Chronic Sleep Deprivation on Medical Residents’ Patient Outcomes: a Systematic Review</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1pc7f4zw</link>
      <description>A systematic literature review was conducted to examine existing studies pertaining to the impacts of chronic sleep deprivation on the quality of patient care delivered by medical residents. Several keyword searches were conducted using Google Scholar, evaluating the first 20 of each search based on established inclusion and exclusion criteria. Analysis of the 7 relevant studies revealed that those utilizing direct clinical evaluations provided the most extensive data. Findings suggested that chronic sleep deprivation impacted the quality of surgical and nonsurgical patient care differently. While impacts on surgical care were largely inconclusive, chronic sleep deprivation appeared to show a negative correlation with the quality of nonsurgical care. These results indicate the need for institutional regulations regarding medical resident working conditions to mitigate performance related effects of chronic sleep deprivation. With residents serving a critical role in the foundations...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1pc7f4zw</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Popovic, Sofija</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Culture and Social Support-Seeking Behaviors</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xm856h1</link>
      <description>Although research has shown that social support is a strong buffer against mental illnesses, Asian Americans are one of the least likely ethnic groups to speak out about mental health and seek social support. The present study proposes two mediators - filial piety and perceived parental stigma towards mental health - as possible explanations for why Asian Americans are less likely to seek social support. A total of 340 U.S. undergraduates identifying as Asian American or White answered a writing prompt about a social stressor and questions that measured filial piety, perceived parental stigma, and likelihood of seeking social support. Results showed that Asian Americans were less likely to seek social support, have higher levels of filial piety, and are more likely to perceive greater parental stigma. Both filial piety and perceived parental stigma were significant mediators, but had different effects on the relationship between culture and social support. Higher filial piety...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xm856h1</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Pang, Tricia</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>WHO or WHY: The Roles of Ally Race and Perceived Motivations in the Target Disadvantaged Group's Personal Outcomes</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0912x1rm</link>
      <description>Past research has demonstrated that the target disadvantaged group’s perception of allyship behaviors differed by ally race (i.e. advantaged vs. disadvantaged group) and perceived allyship motivations (i.e. sincere vs. ulterior). One possible reason behind this different perception was the differentiation of suspicion level toward allies. Consequently, this can lead to different perceivers’ personal outcomes, such as self-esteem and collective action intention. However, past studies often failed to incorporate these variables into a single framework and establish causal relationships between them. Therefore, the current study aims to manipulate ally races and perceived allyship motivations and directly compare their consequential impacts on the target disadvantaged group. In a two-part survey, Black participants first rated their suspicion level toward White (i.e. advantaged group) and Latino people (i.e. disadvantaged group) in general. Two weeks later, the follow-up survey was...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0912x1rm</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Cheng, Xirou (Raissa)</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Recentering the Narrative: Political Communication, Indian Women, and Hindu Nationalism</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0290f7bx</link>
      <description>Since the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, India has seen a great shift in its political landscape. Under his rule, the BJP has quickly transformed into a dominant electoral force, drawing on support for the Prime Minister and promoting certain conservative values that echo Hindu Nationalist ideals. To observe and analyze how Modi’s rise to power has impacted other elements of the Indian government and its political communication, this paper analyzes primary sources that specifically relate to women in India. By analyzing differences in annual reports from the National Commission for Women before and after the rise of the current Prime Minister, legal provisions passed after his ascension to power, and other forms of online communication from the Prime Minister to the public, it is evident that the Prime Minister has been able to utilize these avenues of political communication to reconstruct conceptions of progress with his own image and the central government.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0290f7bx</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Lakhina, Sachi</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The End of Neutrality? LCFS, Technology Neutrality, and Stimulating the Electric Vehicle Market</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9mj147s3</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Widespread electrification of the transportation sector is a key component of most strategies for deep decarbonization of the U.S. economy. While the acceptance of EVs has grown dramatically over the last decade, much of this growth has been spurred by substantial support from public funds and other related policies. Major electrification on the time scales supported in many climate policy plans will require substantial investment spurred by policy. In this whitepaper we discuss the policy options for expanding the EV market. Our particular focus is on the potential role that a Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) can play in supporting electrification. Standards like the LCFS are typically positioned as “technology neutral”, and the LCFS itself relies upon a dense set of calculations and assumptions to rate a wide variety of fuels based upon their life-cycle carbon intensity (CI). The LCFS in California is currently directing hundreds of millions of dollars to the EV market in...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9mj147s3</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Bushnell, James</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Muehlegger, Erich</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Rapson, David</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Witcover, Julie</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Designing Electricity Rates for An Equitable Energy Transition</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9fq4z64x</link>
      <description>This report examines the causes and distributional consequences of the high prices for residential electricity charged by California’s investor-owned utilities (IOUs). It also considers reforms that would improve both the efficiency and equity of residential electricity pricing. We estimate avoidable (marginal) costs of electricity and demonstrate that IOU prices are two to three times higher than these cost estimates. California’s electricity prices are high because nearly all fixed costs are recovered through volumetric prices, because of subsidies for low-income households and customers with rooftop solar, and because rates are used to fund objectives not directly related to the provision of electricity. Prices are set to rise further due to wildfire mitigation and other factors. High and rising prices undermine efforts to decarbonize transportation and buildings through electrification. Moreover, we show that the current rate structure is highly regressive, more so than other...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9fq4z64x</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Borenstein, Severin</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Fowlie, Meredith</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Sallee, James</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Paying for Electricity in California: How Residential Rate Design Impacts Equity and Electrification</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9br8x43q</link>
      <description>Residential customers of investor-owned utilities in California pay an effective electricity tax that averages $500-$800 per year and is borne disproportionately by low-income households. The expenses covered by increasing the price of each kilowatt-hour include climate change mitigation, wildfire adaptation, legacy infrastructure, and subsidies for new technology R&amp;amp;D, energy efficiency investments, low-income customers, and rooftop solar, among other fixed costs and policy expenses. Because electricity bills account for a larger share of income among lower-income households, we find this invisible electricity tax is more regressive than the state sales tax and far more regressive than the state income tax. We show that this tax will significantly impede electrification of vehicles and buildings by raising the cost of operating electric alternatives. We then discuss alternative funding mechanisms for the costs paid by this effective tax, including covering some programs through...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9br8x43q</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Borenstein, Severin</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Fowlie, Meredith</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Sallee, James</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Low Energy: Estimating Electric Vehicle Electricity Use</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/91z2k4fv</link>
      <description>We provide the first at-scale estimate of electric vehicle (EV) home charging. Previous estimates are based on conflicting surveys or are extrapolated from a small, unrepresentative sample of households with dedicated EV meters. We combine billions of hourly electricity meter measurements with address-level EV registration records from California households, including 64,000 EV owners. The average EV increases overall household load by 2.9 kilowatt-hours per day, well under half the amount assumed by state regulators. Results imply that EVs travel less than expected on electric power, raising questions about transportation electrification for climate policy.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/91z2k4fv</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Burlig, Fiona</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Bushnell, James</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Rapson, David</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Wolfram, Catherine</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Border Carbon Adjustments When Carbon Intensity Varies Across Producers: Evidence from California</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/91q5b69d</link>
      <description>Governments taxing carbon emissions within their jurisdiction can impose a commensurate tax on emissions embodied in imports in order to mitigate emissions leakage. California offers a rare opportunity to investigate how such a border carbon adjustment (BCA) is working in practice. Experience to date highlights important tensions between greenhouse gas accounting accuracy, market efficiency, and concerns about trade protectionism. We simulate electricity market outcomes under BCA designs that differ in terms of how the carbon intensity of imports is assessed. Simulations suggest significant potential for leakage via resource shuffling. Realized emissions outcomes indicate that this potential has not been fully realized.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/91q5b69d</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Fowlie, Meredith</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Petersen, Claire</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Reguant, Mar</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Evidence of a Homeowner-Renter Gap for Electric Vehicles</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9185b534</link>
      <description>This paper provides the first empirical analysis of the homeowner-renter gap for electric vehicles. Using nationally representative data from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s 2017 National Household Travel Survey, I show that homeowners are three times more likely than renters to own an electric vehicle. The gap is highly statistically significant, and remains even after controlling for income. For example, among households with annual income between $75,000 and $100,000, 1 in 130 homeowners owns an electric vehicle, compared to 1 in 370 renters. Additional controls do little to narrow the gap. I argue that this is a version of what economists have called the “landlord-tenant” problem, and I discuss this and other possible causes as well as potential policy implications.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9185b534</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Are Energy Executives Rewarded For Luck?</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8xk286dk</link>
      <description>In this paper, we examine executive compensation data from 78 major U.S. oil and gas companies over a 24-year period. Perhaps in no other industry are the fortunes of so many executives so dependent on a single global commodity price. We find that a 10% increase in oil prices is associated with a 2% increase in executive compensation. This oil price effect holds for both CEOs and non-CEOs and separately for several different individual components of compensation, including bonuses. We find that the oil price effect is larger in companies with more insiders on the board, and asymmetric, with executive compensation rising with increasing oil prices more than it falls with decreasing oil prices. We then discuss potential mechanisms drawn from the broader existing literature on executive compensation.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8xk286dk</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Hausman, Catherine</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>An Economic Perspective on Mexico's Nascent Deregulation of Retail Petroleum Markets</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8vg4c70p</link>
      <description>Retail petroleum markets in Mexico are on the cusp of a historic deregulation. For decades, all 11,000 gasoline stations nationwide have carried the brand of the state-owned petroleum company Pemex and sold Pemex gasoline at federally regulated retail prices. This industry structure is changing, however, as part of Mexico’s broader energy reforms aimed at increasing private investment. Since April 2016, independent companies can import, transport, store, distribute, and sell gasoline and diesel. In this paper, we provide an economic perspective on Mexico’s nascent deregulation. Although in many ways the reforms are unprecedented, we argue that past experiences in other markets give important clues about what to expect, as well as about potential pitfalls. Turning Mexico’s retail petroleum sector into a competitive market will not be easy, but the deregulation has enormous potential to increase eciency and, eventually, to reduce prices.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8vg4c70p</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>McRae, Sean</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Bejarano, Enrique S</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Race Gap in Residential Energy Expenditures</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8vf9h89s</link>
      <description>Black households have higher residential energy expenditures than white households in the US. This residential energy expenditure gap persists after controlling for income, household size, homeowner status, and city of residence. It decreased but did not disappear between 2010 and 2017, and it is fairly stable in levels across the income distribution, except at the top. Controlling for home type or vintage does not eliminate the gap, but survey evidence on housing characteristics and available appliances is consistent with the gap being driven at least in part by differences in housing stock and related energy efficiency investments.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8vf9h89s</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Lyubich, Eva</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Role of People vs. Places in Individual Carbon Emissions</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8nz731bt</link>
      <description>There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in household carbon emissions across the US, and a strong association between emissions and local amenities such as density, transportation infrastructure, and housing characteristics. I estimate what share of heterogeneity in carbon emissions is attributable to places themselves, and what share reflects individual preferences and taste-based sorting. To do this, I construct a longitudinal panel of residential energy use and commute characteristics for over a million individuals from two decades of administrative Decennial Census and American Community Survey data. I use movers in my data to estimate place effects – the amount by which carbon emissions change for the same individual living in different places – for almost 1,000 cities and roughly 65,000 neighborhoods across the US. I find that place effects explain about 15-25% of overall variation in carbon emissions, and more than half of the variation between places. My estimates suggest...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8nz731bt</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Lyubich, Eva</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Energy Hogs and Energy Angels: What Does Residential Electricity Usage Really Tell Us About Profligate Consumption?</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8mr7695p</link>
      <description>Since the 1970s, high volumetric (per kilowatt-hour) electricity prices have been justified in many policy discussions as encouraging more efficient use of electricity and placing more of the cost burden on those who are less prudent in their use. The argument has been used in support of increasing-block electricity pricing, under which the price per kilowatt-hour rises as a household consumes more electricity per month. More recently, in California, opponents of a proposal to lower volumetric prices and replace the revenue through fixed monthly charges have suggested that the change would just benefit “energy hogs”. In this paper, I first investigate characteristics of households who are high electricity consumers. I conclude that such pricing primarily targets benign household characteristics—e.g., many occupants, children and elderly present, not adopting rooftop solar, living in locations with more extreme temperatures—rather than profligate consumption. I then look more broadly...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8mr7695p</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Borenstein, Severin</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Can Distribution Grid Infrastructure Accommodate Residential Electrification and Electric Vehicle Adoption in Northern California?</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8kt4g6cb</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In this paper we ask: in what ways will utilities need to upgrade the electric distribution grid to accommodate electrified loads, and what will those upgrades cost? Our study focuses on the PG&amp;amp;E service area in Northern California, which serves 4.8 million electricity customers and is subject to aggressive targets for both EV adoption and electrification of residential space and water heating. We create spatio-temporally detailed electricity demand forecasts, and compare that demand to distribution infrastructure limits across a range of technology adoption scenarios. We find that electrification of residential space and water heating will lead to fewer impacts on distribution feeder capacity than EV charging, but that both transitions will require an acceleration of the current pace of upgrades. We also find that timing and location have a strong influence on total capacity additions in important ways: for example, scenarios that favor daytime EV charging have similar...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8kt4g6cb</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Brockway, Anna</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Callaway, Duncan</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Elmallah, Salma</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Blackouts in the Developing World: The Role of Wholesale Electricity Markets</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8j88k9zj</link>
      <description>Blackouts impose substantial economic costs in developing countries. This paper advances a new explanation for their continued prevalence: unlike in high-income countries, where regulatory mandates require utilities to satisfy all electricity demand, utilities in developing countries respond to wholesale electricity prices by curtailing some retail customers. As a result, inefficiencies in wholesale markets may not only cause misallocation of output across power plants, but can also decrease the quantity of electricity supplied to end-use consumers. We provide empirical support for this explanation using novel data from India, home to the world’s third-largest electricity sector. In contrast to the developed world, we find that Indian wholesale electricity demand is downward-sloping: when the costs of wholesale supply increase, Indian utilities provide less electricity to retail consumers. Reducing misallocation in electricity output across power plants would increase electricity...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8j88k9zj</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Jha, Akshaya</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Preonas, Louis</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Burlig, Fiona</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Where is Pollution Moving? Environmental Markets and Environmental Justice</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/87x2z007</link>
      <description>Do US air pollution offset markets disproportionately relocate pollution to or from low-income or minority communities? Concerns about an equal distribution of environmental quality across communities – environmental justice – have growing policy influence. We relate prices and quantities of offset transactions to demographics of the communities surrounding polluting plants. We find little association of offset prices or offset-induced movements in pollution with the share of a community that is Black, Hispanic, or with mean household income. This analysis of twelve prominent offset markets suggests that they do not substantially increase or decrease the equity of environmental outcomes.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/87x2z007</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Shapiro, Joseph</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Walker, Reed</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Setting With The Sun: The Impacts Of Renewable Energy On Wholesale Power Markets</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/87w1z2h7</link>
      <description>Policies supporting investment in renewable electricity have been a cornerstone of climate policy in many parts of the world. While previous empirical work explores the economic and environmental impacts of renewable production, the focus has exclusively been on the short-run impacts of expanding renewable supply. In this paper, we shed light on the longer run impacts of renewable expansions. Focusing on the California’s electricity market, we estimate how wholesale electricity prices have responded to a dramatic increase in utility-scale solar capacity. While a substantial decline in daily average prices can be attributed to the solar capacity expansion, this average price impact masks a substantial decrease in mid-day prices combined with an increase in shoulder hour prices. These results imply that short-term power markets are responding to the renewable expansion in a fashion that could sustain more flexible conventional generation, while seriously undermining the economic...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/87w1z2h7</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Bushnell, James</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Novan, Kevin</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>How Much Are Electric Vehicles Driven?</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/86p2c0rk</link>
      <description>The prospect for electric vehicles as a climate change solution hinges on their ability to reduce gasoline consumption. But this depends on how many miles electric vehicles are driven and on how many miles would have otherwise been driven in gasoline-powered vehicles. Using newly-available U.S. nationally representative data, this paper finds that electric vehicles are driven considerably fewer miles per year on average than gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles. The difference is highly statistically significant and holds for both all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, for both single- and multiple-vehicle households, and both inside and outside California. The paper discusses potential explanations and policy implications. Overall, the evidence suggests that electric vehicles imply smaller environmental benefits than previously believed.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/86p2c0rk</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Is Air Pollution Regulation Too Lenient? Evidence from US Offset Markets</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/86g74702</link>
      <description>This paper describes a framework to estimate the marginal cost of air pollution regulation, then applies it to assess whether a large set of existing U.S. air pollution regulations have marginal benefits exceeding their marginal costs. The approach utilizes an important yet under-explored provision of the Clean Air Act requiring new or expanding plants to pay incumbents in the same or neighboring counties to reduce their pollution emissions. These “offset” regulations create several hundred decentralized, local markets for pollution that differ by pollutant and location. Economic theory and empirical tests suggest these market prices reveal information about the marginal cost of abatement for new or expanding firms. We compare estimates of the marginal benefit of abatement from leading air quality models to offset prices. We find that, for most regions and pollutants, the marginal benefits of pollution abatement exceed mean offset prices more than ten-fold. In at least one market,...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/86g74702</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Shapiro, Joseph</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Walker, Reed</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Political Ideology and U.S. Electric Vehicle Adoption</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/86f967qk</link>
      <description>The prospect for electric vehicles (EVs) as a climate change solution hinges on their widespread adoption across the political spectrum. In this paper, we use detailed county-level data on new vehicle registrations from 2012-2022 to measure the degree to which EV adoption is concentrated in the most left-leaning U.S. counties, and how this concentration has changed over time. The results point to a strong and enduring correlation between political ideology and U.S. EV adoption. During our time period about half of all EVs went to the 10% most Democratic counties, and about one-third went to the top 5%. There is relatively little evidence that this correlation has decreased over time, and even some specifications that point to increasing correlation. The results suggests that it may be harder than previously believed to reach high levels of U.S. EV adoption.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/86f967qk</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Li, Jing</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Springel, Katalin</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Hard to Measure Well: Can Feasible Policies Reduce Methane Emissions?</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/82r81613</link>
      <description>Oil and gas wells emit large quantities of methane, a greenhouse gas 34 times more potent than carbon dioxide. Methane emissions are rarely priced and lightly regulated—in part because they are hard to measure—leading to a large climate externality. However, measurement technology is improving, with remote sensing and other techniques opening the door for policy innovation. We present a theoretical model of emissions abatement at the well level and a range of feasible policy options, then use data constructed from cross-sectional scientific studies to estimate abatement costs. We simulate audit policies under realistic constraints, varying the information the regulator uses in choosing wells to audit. These policies become more effective when they can target on well covariates, detect leaks remotely, and charge higher fees for leaks. We estimate a policy that audits 1% of wells with uniform probability achieves less than 1% of the gains of the infeasible first best. Using the...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/82r81613</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Werner, Karl D</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Qiu, Wenfeng</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Rate of Return Regulation Revisited</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/80m5j9vs</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Utility companies recover their capital costs through regulator-approved rates of return. Using a comprehensive database of utility rate cases, we find a significant premium for regulated returns on equity relative to several capital cost benchmarks. We show that firms decide strategically when to initiate new rate cases, such that regulated returns respond more quickly to increases in underlying capital cost benchmarks than to decreases. Higher regulated returns incentivize utilities to own more capital: a one percentage point rise in return on equity increases capital assets by 3–4%. Overall we find excess costs to US consumers averaging $7 billion per year.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/80m5j9vs</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Werner, Karl D</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Jarvis, Stephen</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Transmission Impossible? Prospects for Decarbonizing the US Grid</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7sv9j8kd</link>
      <description>Encouraged by the declining cost of grid-scale renewables, recent analyses conclude that the United States could reach net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 at relatively low cost using currently available technologies. While the cost of renewable generation has declined dramatically, integrating these renewables would require a large expansion in transmission to deliver that power. Already there is growing evidence that the United States has insufficient transmission capacity, and current levels of annual investment are well below what would be required for a renewables-dominated system. We describe a variety of challenges that make it difficult to build new transmission and potential policy responses to mitigate them, as well as possible substitutes for some new transmission capacity.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7sv9j8kd</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Hausman, Catherine</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Rose, Nancy</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Who Will Pay for Legacy Utility Costs?</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7kp7r2x5</link>
      <description>The growing “electrify everything” movement aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by transitioning households and firms away from natural gas toward electricity. This paper considers what this transition means for the customers who are left behind. Using historical evidence from growing and shrinking U.S. natural gas utilities, we show that utilities add pipelines but rarely remove them, even when the customer base from which to recover costs is shrinking. Correspondingly, we find that utility revenues decrease less than one-for-one when a customer base is shrinking, consistent with higher bills for remaining customers. We then use our empirical estimates to predict how customer bills might increase in the future for different levels of building electrification. We highlight the equity implications of our results and conclude by discussing alternative utility financing options such as recouping fixed costs through taxes rather than prices.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7kp7r2x5</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Hausman, Catherine</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Bringing Satellite-Based Air Quality Estimates Down to Earth</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7778x5rp</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;We use state-of-the-art, satellite-based PM2.5 estimates to assess the extent to which the EPA’s existing, monitor-based measurements over- or under-estimate true exposure to PM2.5 pollution. Treating satellite-based estimates as truth implies a substantial number of “policy errors” — over-regulating areas that comply with air quality standards and under-regulating other areas that appear to violate standards. We investigate the health implications of these apparent errors and highlight the importance of accounting for prediction error in satellite-based estimates. Uncertainty in “policy errors” increases substantially when we account for these underlying prediction errors.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7778x5rp</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Fowlie, Meredith</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Rubin, Edward</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Walker, Reed</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Carbon Pricing, Clean Electricity Standards, and Clean Electricity Subsidies on the Path to Zero Emissions</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/70n281tw</link>
      <description>We categorize the primary incentive-based mechanisms under consideration for addressing greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation—pricing carbon, setting intensity standards, and subsidizing clean energy—and compare their market outcomes under similar expansions of clean electricity generation. While pricing emissions gives strong incentives to first eliminate generation with the highest social cost, a clean energy standard incentivizes earliest phaseout of the generation with the highest private cost. We show that the importance of this distinction depends on the correlation between private costs and emissions rates. We then estimate this correlation for US electricity generation and fuel prices as of 2019. The results indicate that the emissions difference between a carbon tax and clean energy standard that phase out fossil fuel generation over the same timeframe may actually be quite small, though it depends on fossil fuel prices during the phaseout. We also discuss...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/70n281tw</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Borenstein, Severin</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Kellog, Ryan</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6x18n1jp</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Many countries have phased out nuclear electricity production in response to concerns about nuclear waste and the risk of nuclear accidents. This paper examines the impact of the shutdown of roughly half of the nuclear production capacity in Germany after the Fukushima accident in 2011. We use hourly data on power plant operations and a novel machine learning framework to estimate how plants would have operated differently if the phase-out had not occurred. We find that the lost nuclear electricity production due to the phase-out was replaced primarily by coal-fired production and net electricity imports. The social cost of this shift from nuclear to coal is approximately 12 billion dollars per year. Over 70% of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Even the largest estimates of the reduction in the costs associated with nuclear accident risk and waste disposal due to the phase-out...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6x18n1jp</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Jarvis, Stephen</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Deschenes, Olivier</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Jha, Akshaya</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Mitigating Emissions Leakage in IncompleteCarbon Markets</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6wt7s57g</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Policies regulating greenhouse gas emissions apply to a small subset of emitting sources. This raises a formidable concern: emissions can ‘leak’ from regulated to unregulated sources. We provide a theoretical basis for deriving industry-specific measures of leakage risk, and for calibrating the output-based subsidies which are currently used to mitigate leakage. Using U.S. energy price variation as a proxy for variation that would be induced by a domestic carbon price, we show how theoretically consistent leakage mitigating subsidies can be calibrated. We simulate the impacts of a domestic carbon price on U.S. manufacturing with and without these subsidies. Absent mitigation, emissions leakage is substantial. Output-based subsidies targeted on the basis of our leakage risk measures significantly reduce this leakage risk. In contrast, the current practice of coarsely targeting subsidies on the basis of emissions intensity and trade exposure delivers a small fraction of leakage...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6wt7s57g</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Fowlie, Meredith</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Reguant, Mar</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>How Effective is Energy-Efficient Housing? Evidence from a Field experiment in Mexico</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6rr6b83k</link>
      <description>Despite growing enthusiasm, there is little empirical evidence on how well energy efficiency investments work. Evidence is particularly lacking from low- and middle-income countries, despite a widespread view that these countries have many of the best opportunities. This paper evaluates a field experiment in Mexico in which a quasi-experimental sample of new homes was provided with insulation and other energy-efficient upgrades. A novel feature of our study is that we deploy large numbers of data loggers which allow us to measure temperature and humidity at high frequency inside homes. We find that the upgrades had no detectable impact on electricity use or thermal comfort, with essentially identical temperature and humidity levels in upgraded and non-upgraded homes. These results stand in sharp contrast to the engineering estimates that predicted up to a 26% decrease in electricity use. Part of the explanation is that air conditioning ownership is lower than expected, thus reducing...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6rr6b83k</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Martinez, Sebastian</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Taboada, Bibiana</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Accelerating Transmission Expansion by Using Advanced Conductors in Existing Right-of-Way</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6h52p180</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;As countries pursue decarbonization goals, the rapid expansion of transmission capacity for renewable energy (RE) integration poses a significant challenge due to hurdles such as permitting and cost allocation. However, we find that large-scale reconductoring with advanced composite-core conductors can cost-effectively double transmission capacity within existing right-of-way (ROW), with limited additional permitting. This strategy unlocks a high availability of increasingly economically-viable RE resources in close proximity to the existing network. We implement reconductoring in a model of the United States power system, showing that reconductoring can help meet over 80% of the new interzonal transmission needed to reach over 90% clean electricity by 2035 given restrictions on greenfield transmission build-out. With $180 billion in system cost savings by 2050, reconductoring presents a cost-effective and time-efficient, yet underutilized, opportunity to accelerate global...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6h52p180</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Chojkiewicz, Emilia</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Paliwal, Umed</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Abhyankar, Nikit</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Baker, Casey</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>O'Connell, Ric</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Callaway, Duncan</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Phadke, Amol</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Credit and Attention in the Adoption of Profitable Energy Efficient Technologies in Kenya</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5wv66660</link>
      <description>What roles do credit constraints and inattention play in the under-adoption of highreturn technologies? We study this question in the case of energy efficient cookstoves in Nairobi. Using a randomized field experiment with 1,000 households we find that the technology has very high returns—we estimate an average rate of return of 300% and savings of $120 per year in fuel costs, around one month of income. In spite of this, adoption rates are inefficiently low. Using a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism we find that average willingness-to-pay (WTP) is only $12. To investigate what drives this puzzling pattern, we cross-randomize access to credit with an intervention designed to increase attention to the costs and the benefits of adoption. Our first main finding is that credit doubles WTP and closes the energy efficiency gap. Second, credit works in part through psychological channels: around one third of the impact of credit is caused by inattention to future costs. We find no evidence...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5wv66660</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Berkouwer, Susanna</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Dean, Joshua</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Solar Microgrids and Remote Energy Access: How Weak Incentives Can Undermine Smart Technology</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/58r8k74m</link>
      <description>This paper documents the challenges faced by one company, Gram Power, installing and operating solar microgrids in rural India. We begin by summarizing the existing literature on best practices for microgrid deployment. Although Gram Power followed nearly all of these recommendations, the company nevertheless faced significant challenges. First, demand for solar microgrids was very limited, largely due to the perception that grid power was imminent and preferred. The company installed only 10 microgrids after visiting 176 villages, so customer acquisition costs were high and economies of scale were lower than expected. In villages where microgrids were eventually deployed, Gram Power faced challenges collecting revenues, mainly due to theft. Even though Gram Power installed sophisticated meters that could detect theft remotely, principal-agent problems hampered the company’s ability to deter theft. We conclude with a discussion of policy changes that could better support the integration...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/58r8k74m</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Fowlie, Meredith</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Khaitan, Yashraj</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Wolfram, Catherine</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Wolfson, Derek</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Upstream vs. Downstream CO2 Trading: A Comparison for the Electricity Context</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5331r6fq</link>
      <description>In electricity, “downstream” CO2 regulation requires retail suppliers to buy energy from a mix of sources so that their weighted emissions satisfy a standard. It has been argued that such “load-based” regulation would solve emissions leakage, cost consumers less, and provide more incentive for energy efficiency than traditional source-based cap-and-trade programs. Because pure load-based trading complicates spot power markets, variants (GEAC and CO2RC) that separate emissions attributes from energy have been proposed. When all energy producers and consumers come under such a system, these load-based programs are equivalent to source-based trading in which emissions allowances are allocated by various rules, and have no necessary cost advantage. The GEAC and CO2RC systems are equivalent to giving allowances free to generators, and requiring consumers either to subsidize generation or buy back excess allowances, respectively. As avoided energy costs under source-based and pure load-based...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5331r6fq</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Hobbs, Benjamin F</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Bushnell, James</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Wolak, Frank A</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Welfare Costs of Misaligned Incentives: Energy Inefficiency and the Principal-Agent Problem</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4cp5r7xx</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In many settings, misaligned incentives and inadequate monitoring lead employees to take self-interested actions. This paper identifies and quantifies the costs of this principal-agent problem in the context of an energy efficiency appliance replacement program. I show that contractors (agents) hired by the electric utility (the principal) increase their compensation by intentionally misreporting program data to authorize replacement of non-qualified refrigerators. I estimate that unqualified replacements reduce welfare by an average of $106 and save only half as much electricity as replacements that follow program guidelines. The same program without a principal-agent distortion would increase welfare by $60 per replacement.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4cp5r7xx</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Blonz, Joshua</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Economic Costs of NIMBYism: Evidence from Renewable Energy Projects</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/49j93470</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Large infrastructure projects can create widespread societal benefits, but also frequently prompt strong local opposition. This is sometimes pejoratively labeled NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) behavior. In this paper I estimate the economic costs of NIMBYism and its role in local planning decisions. To do this I use detailed data on all major renewable energy projects proposed in the United Kingdom spanning three decades. First, I use hedonic methods to show that wind projects impose significant negative local costs, while solar projects do not. I then show that planning officials are particularly responsive to the local costs imposed within their jurisdictions, but fail to account for variation in these costs across jurisdictions. The result has been a systematic misallocation of investment, which may have increased the cost of deploying wind power by 10 -29%. Much of this can be attributed to the fragmented and localized nature of the planning process.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/49j93470</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Jarvis, Stephen</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Market Size and Market Power: Evidence from the Texas Electricity Market</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/46g4s3kd</link>
      <description>Economic theory tells us that market structure is the primary determinant of a firm’s ability to exercise market power. However, it is challenging to empirically estimate the causal effect of market structure on market power because a firm rarely experiences exogenous variation in its market’s structure. In this paper, I exploit a novel source of exogenous variation in market size within the Texas electricity market — congestion of electricity transmission lines due to ambient temperature shocks — to estimate the causal effect of market size on the exercise of market power. When transmission lines congest, this statewide market splits into smaller localized markets. I find that a 10% reduction in market size causes firms to more than double markups. The direction of this effect is consistent with a model of oligopoly competition in which firms set markups in response to residual demand, which is less elastic in a smaller market. My results imply that the markups induced by transmission...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/46g4s3kd</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Woerman, Matt</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>For Whom the Bridge Tolls: Congestion, Air Pollution, and Second-Best Road Pricing</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/43r0f1v1</link>
      <description>Real-world congestion zones are imperfect because they charge heterogeneous road users uniform prices, and invite externality spillovers in space and time. I show that given these imperfections, calculating optimal prices requires (i) individual-level externalities, (ii) individual elasticities, and (iii) cross-price elasticities between priced and unpriced trips. Using tolling microdata from California, I estimate a model of driving demand that yields these parameters. I then estimate optimal prices for proposed zones in three U.S. cities. I find that leakage pushes second-best prices below trip-level externalities, and that optimal peak pricing recovers just 30-40% of the welfare gains of a first-best policy.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/43r0f1v1</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Tarduno, Matthew</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Electric Heating and the Effects of Temperature on Household Electricity Consumption in South Africa</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3t43s234</link>
      <description>Household energy consumption in developing countries is expected to surge in the coming decades. Yet little is known about how temperature drives household energy demand in developing countries. This paper uses 132,375,282 hourly electricity consumption observations from 5,975 households in South Africa to estimate the effects of temperature on household electricity consumption. The estimates flexibly identify a constant log-linear temperature response: for every 1 degree&amp;nbsp;&lt;em&gt;C&lt;/em&gt;&amp;nbsp;increase in temperature, electricity consumption decreases by 4.1% among temperatures below the heating threshold but increases by 12.2% among temperatures above the cooling threshold. This relationship is driven more strongly by seasonal than hourly temperature changes. Holding all else constant, a 3.25 degree&amp;nbsp;&lt;em&gt;C&lt;/em&gt;&amp;nbsp;increase in temperatures would reduce electricity consumption by 1,093.4 kWh (6.2%) per year per household. Widespread use of electric heating due to limited residential...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3t43s234</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Berkouwer, Susanna</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Electric Vehicles in Multi-Vehicle Households</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3cr3s382</link>
      <description>This paper uses U.S. nationally representative data from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey to present a series of facts about electric vehicles (EVs) in multi-vehicle households. First, as of the time of the survey, 89% of households with an EV also had a non-electric vehicle in addition to the EV. Second, 60% of households with an EV also had a non-electric SUV, truck, or minivan. Third, 66% of households with an EV also had a non-electric vehicle that was driven more miles per year. The paper argues that these patterns have significant implications for the environmental impact of EVs and underscore the importance of better understanding how multi-vehicle households substitute between vehicles.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3cr3s382</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Economic Determinants of Heat Pump Adoption</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/33h868zk</link>
      <description>One concern with subsidies for low-carbon technologies is that they tend to go predominantly to high-income households. Previous research has shown, for example, that the top income quintile receives 60% of subsidies for rooftop solar and 90% of subsidies for electric vehicles. This paper finds that heat pumps are an important exception. Using newly available U.S. nationally representative data, the paper finds that there is remarkably little correlation between heat pump adoption and household income. Nationwide, 14% of U.S. households have a heat pump as their primary heating equipment, and adoption levels are essentially identical for all income levels ranging from the bottom of the income distribution (&amp;lt;$30,000 annually) to the top ($150,000+). Instead, the paper shows that heat pump adoption is strongly correlated with geography, climate, and electricity prices.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/33h868zk</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Headwinds and Tailwinds: Implications of Inefficient Retail Energy Pricing for Energy Substitution</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/33h6n45j</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Electrification of transportation and buildings to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requires massive switching from natural gas and refined petroleum products. All three end-use energy sources are mispriced due in part to the unpriced pollution they emit. Natural gas and electricity utilities also face the classic natural monopoly challenge of recovering fixed costs while maintaining efficient pricing. We study the magnitude of these distortions for electricity, natural gas, and gasoline purchased by residential customers across the continental US. We find that the net distortion in pricing electricity is much greater than for natural gas or gasoline. Residential customers in much of the country face electricity prices that are well above social marginal cost (private marginal cost plus unpriced externalities), while in some areas with large shares of coal-fired generation, prices are below SMC. Combining our estimates of marginal price and SMC for each of the fuels with...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/33h6n45j</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Borenstein, Severin</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Bushnell, James</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Pigou Creates Losers: On the Implausibility of Achieving Pareto Improvements from Efficiency-Enhancing Policies</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2q90r40v</link>
      <description>Economic theory predicts that efficiency-enhancing policy changes can be made to benefit everyone through the use of lump-sum transfers that compensate anyone initially harmed by the change. Precise targeting of compensating transfers, however, may not be possible when agents are heterogeneous and the planner faces constraints on the design of transfers, due, for example, to asymmetric information. In this paper, I derive an impossibility condition showing when Pareto improvements are not possible. The condition can be directly tested with readily available data. It relates the size of efficiency gains to the degree of predictability between initial burdens and variables used to condition transfers. The main empirical application is to a gasoline tax to correct carbon emissions, but I present related results for other sin taxes. Results indicate that it is infeasible to create a Pareto improvement from the taxation of these goods, and moreover that plausible policies are likely...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2q90r40v</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Sallee, James</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Evidence of a Homeowner-Renter Gap for Electric Appliances</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2nm2367b</link>
      <description>This paper provides the first empirical analysis of the homeowner-renter gap for electric appliances. Using U.S. nationally representative data, the analysis shows that renters are significantly more likely than homeowners to have electric heat, electric hot water heating, an electric stove, and an electric dryer. The gap is highly statistically significant, prevalent across regions, and holds after controlling for the type, size, and age of the home, as well as for climate and household characteristics. The paper argues that this gap arises from the same split incentives that lead to the “landlord-tenant problem” and discusses the implications of the gap for an emerging set of policies aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions through building electrification.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2nm2367b</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Climate Policy, Environmental Justice, and Local Air Pollution</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2gk5h555</link>
      <description>This paper explores linkages between U.S. climate policy, environmental justice (EJ), and local air pollution. Policy proposals recently introduced by Democrats place EJ concerns at the heart of the climate policy agenda. To gain insight into how this policy imperative could be implemented, we draw lessons from recent legislative and regulatory experiences in California. In 2006, California began a path-breaking experiment to incorporate EJ concerns into an ambitious climate change mitigation agenda. We review this experience to date, noting some early pitfalls and subsequent course corrections. We argue that California’s joint implementation of an ambitious climate change policy agenda together with a targeted effort to mitigate inequities in both pollution exposure and policy participation could serve as a model for other jurisdictions.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2gk5h555</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Fowlie, Meredith</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Walker, Reed</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Wooley, David</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Forecasting Credit Supply Demand Balance for the Low-Carbon Fuel Standard Program</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2d20m6pw</link>
      <description>We present projections for the expected supply of and demand for Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS credits) through 2030, as well as through 2035, based on potential changes to program stringency. Our main approach is to apply time-series forecasting methods to project the expected demand for transportation fuels and combine that with the expected evolution of fuel prices and carbon intensities as well as the impact of other transportation policies on the fuel mix. Our results imply that the LCFS program can accommodate a relatively aggressive target of 43% reduction by 2035, but only if everything breaks right and many best-case outcomes arise toward the middle of the next decade. Compliance will depend, among other factors, upon the ability of suppliers to produce and distribute extremely high amounts of renewable diesel into California’s diesel pool. Our median forecast of our baseline scenario forecasts a small but significant cumulative credit deficit by 2035. Under such circumstances...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2d20m6pw</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Bushnell, James</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Lade, Gabriel</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Smith, Aaron</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Witcover, Julie</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Xiao, Wuzheqian</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Energy Prices and Electric Vehicle Adoption</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2563m4r9</link>
      <description>This paper presents evidence that gasoline prices have a larger effect on demand for electric vehicles (EVs) than electricity prices in California. We match a spatially-disaggregated panel dataset of monthly EV registration records to detailed records of gasoline and electricity prices in California from 2014 2017, and use these to estimate the effect of energy prices on EV demand. Two distinct empirical approaches (panel fixed-effects and a utility-border discontinuity) yield remarkably similar results: a given change in gasoline prices has roughly four to six times the effect on EV demand as a similar percentage change in electricity prices. We explore the implications for optimal EV subsidies, which promote externality reduction benefits and correct for consumer mis-optimization stemming from the undervaluation of future electricity costs.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2563m4r9</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Bushnell, James</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Muehlegger, Eric</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Rapson, David</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Natural Gas Price Elasticities and Optimal Cost Recovery Under Consumer Heterogeneity: Evidencefrom 300 Million Natural Gas Bills</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1vw700ct</link>
      <description>Half of American households heat their homes with natural gas furnaces and 43% use it to heat their water. Hence, understanding residential natural gas consumption behavior has become a first-order problem. In this paper, we provide the first ever causally identified, microdata-based estimates of residential natural gas demand elasticities using a panel of approximately 300 million bills in California. To overcome multiple sources of endogeneity, we employ a two-pronged empirical strategy: (1) we exploit a discontinuity along the border between two major natural-gas utilities in conjunction with (2) an instrumental variables strategy based upon the differences in the utilities’ rules/behaviors for internalizing changes in the upstream natural gas spot market. We estimate that the elasticity of demand for residential natural gas is between -0.23 and -0.17. We also provide evidence of significant seasonal and income-based heterogeneity in this elasticity. This heterogeneity suggests...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1vw700ct</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Auffhammer, Maximilian</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Rubin, Edward</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Should Electric Vehicle Drivers Pay A Mileage Tax?</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1vm8g7n1</link>
      <description>In many countries the revenue from gasoline taxes is used to fund highways and other transportation infrastructure. As the number of electric vehicles on the road increases, this raises questions about the effectiveness and equity of this financing mechanism. In this paper, we ask whether electric vehicle drivers should pay a mileage tax. Though the gasoline tax has been traditionally viewed as a benefits tax, we take instead the perspective of economic efficiency. We derive a condition for the optimal electric vehicle mileage tax that highlights a key trade-off. On the one hand, there are externalities from driving including traffic congestion and accidents that imply a mileage tax is efficient. On the other hand, gasoline tends to be underpriced, so a low (or even negative) mileage tax might be justified to encourage substitution away from gasoline-powered vehicles. We then turn to an empirical analysis aimed at better understanding the current policy landscape for electric...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1vm8g7n1</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Sallee, James</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Do Two Electricity Pricing Wrongs Make a Right? Cost Recovery, Externalities, and Efficiency</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1v52p21m</link>
      <description>Economists favor pricing pollution in part so that consumers face the full social marginal cost (SMC) of goods and services. But even without valuing externalities, retail electricity prices typically exceed private marginal cost, due to a utility’s need to cover average costs. Furthermore, due to costly storage, the marginal cost of electricity can fluctuate widely hour-to-hour, while retail prices do not. We show that residential electricity rates exceed average SMC in most of the US, but there is large variation, both geographically and temporally. This finding has important implications for pass-through of pollution costs, as well as for policies to promote dynamic pricing, alternative energy and reduced electricity consumption.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1v52p21m</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Borenstein, Severin</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Bushnell, James</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>What Matters for Electrification? Evidence from 70 Years of U.S. Home Heating Choices</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1mq4c1nh</link>
      <description>The percentage of U.S. homes heated with electricity has increased steadily from 1% in 1950, to 8% in 1970, to 26% in 1990, to 40% in 2020. This paper investigates the key determinants of this increase in electrification using data on heating choices from millions of U.S. households over a 70-year period. Energy prices, geography, climate, housing characteristics, and household income are shown to collectively explain 90% of the increase, with changing energy prices by far the most important single factor. This framework is then used to calculate the economic cost of an electrification mandate for new homes. Households in warm states tend to prefer electricity anyway, so would be made worse off by less than $350 annually on average. Households in cold states, however, tend to strongly prefer natural gas so would be made worse off by more than $1000 annually. These findings are directly relevant to a growing number of policies aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions through...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1mq4c1nh</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Davis, Lucas</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Regulating Untaxable Externalities: Are Vehicle Air Pollution Standards Effective and Efficient?</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1jq1d9g5</link>
      <description>What is a feasible and efficient policy to regulate air pollution from vehicles? A Pigouvian tax is technologically infeasible. Most countries instead rely on exhaust standards that limit air pollution emissions per mile for new vehicles. We assess the effectiveness and efficiency of these standards, which are the centerpiece of US Clean Air Act regulation of transportation, and counterfactual policies. We show that the air pollution emissions per mile of new US vehicles has fallen spectacularly, by over 99 percent, since standards began in 1967. Several research designs with a half century of data suggest that exhaust standards have caused most of this decline. Yet exhaust standards are not cost-effective in part because they fail to encourage scrap of older vehicles, which account for the majority of emissions. To study counterfactual policies, we develop an analytical and a quantitative model of the vehicle fleet. Analysis of these models suggests that tighter exhaust standards...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1jq1d9g5</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Jacobsen, Mark</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Sallee, James</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Shapiro, Joseph</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>van Benthem, Arthur</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Long-Run Price Elasticities and Mechanisms: Empirical Evidence from Residential Electricity Consumers</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/179548sd</link>
      <description>Long-run elasticities, while difficult to empirically estimate, are critical inputs for welfare analysis, demand forecasting, and policy evaluation. In this paper, I leverage a novel source of exogenous and persistent price variation to estimate the long-run price elasticity of demand for residential electricity consumers. I find that consumers are much more responsive to prices in the long run than the short run, with a long-run elasticity estimate of -2.4, in contrast with a short-run elasticity estimate of -0.36. Low-income consumers are particularly responsive to prices in the long run, emphasizing the importance of bill salience to low-income households. I explore some of the mechanisms driving this price response, and find that households facing higher prices are less responsive to temperature than those facing low prices. My findings highlight the importance of getting electricity prices right, and suggest that retail electricity prices might play a more significant role...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/179548sd</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Buchsbaum, Jesse</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Electric Ceiling: Limits and Costs of Full Electrification</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/11g253hp</link>
      <description>Electrification is a centerpiece of global decarbonization efforts. Yet there are reasons to be skeptical of the inevitability, or at least the optimal pace, of the transition. We discuss several under-appreciated costs of full, or even deep, electrification. Consumer preferences can operate in favor of and in opposition to electrification goals; and electrification is likely to encounter physical and economic obstacles when it reaches some as-yet-unknown level. While we readily acknowledge the external benefits of decarbonization, we also explore several under-appreciated external costs. The credibility and eventual success of decarbonization efforts is enhanced by foreseeing and ideally avoiding predictable but non-obvious costs of promising abatement pathways. Thus, even with all of its promise, the degree of electrification may ultimately reach a limit.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/11g253hp</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Rapson, David</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Bushnell, James</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0wm708q7</link>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;This paper documents a new fact, then analyzes its causes and consequences: in most countries, import tariffs and non-tariff barriers are substantially lower on dirty than on clean industries, where an industry’s “dirtiness” is defined as its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per dollar of output. This difference in trade policy creates a global implicit subsidy to CO2 emissions in internationally traded goods and so contributes to climate change. This global implicit subsidy to CO2 emissions totals several hundred billion dollars annually. The greater protection of downstream industries, which are relatively clean, substantially accounts for this pattern. The downstream pattern can be explained by theories where industries lobby for low tariffs on their inputs but final consumers are poorly organized. A quantitative general equilibrium model suggests that if countries applied similar trade policies to clean and dirty goods, global CO2 emissions would decrease and global real...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0wm708q7</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Shapiro, Joseph</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Retiring Old Capital to Foster Decarbonization</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0kt992tm</link>
      <description>A majority of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions come from fossil fuel combustion. Combustion nearly always involves some form of durable capital, which includes vehicles, appliances and power generators. Many policies aim to improve environmental outcomes by regulating the efficiency or emissions of this capital. Most such policies focus on new capital. This paper discusses the importance of policies that target used capital as a complement to such regulations. In particular, the paper argues that used capital policies that are designed to accelerate retirement of used capital, either by taxing its use or subsidizing its scrappage, can have efficiency benefits by addressing unintended consequences of policies that target new capital. The paper also argues that retirement subsidies are likely to be a relatively progressive policy instrument, as compared to alternatives. Policymakers should understand the role that such policies might play in fostering equitable decarbonization...</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0kt992tm</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Sallee, James</name>
      </author>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Does Time Shift Behavior? The Clock- vs. Solar-time Tradeoff</title>
      <link>https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0886596j</link>
      <description>Standardized clock time is perhaps the most ubiquitous behavioral nudge on the planet. It helps schedule and coordinate economic behavior, but also creates tension when it shifts activities away from their locally optimal solar time. Debates about daylight saving time and areas switching time zones center on this tension. We directly measure the clock- vs. solar-time tradeoff using geolocated data on online behavior (Twitter), commute times (Census), and foot traffic (SafeGraph). A one-hour change in the wedge between solar time and clock time shifts behavior 10–32 minutes, with larger effects in northern latitudes and for activities occurring closer to sunrise.</description>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0886596j</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <author>
        <name>Baylis, Patrick</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Borenstein, Severin</name>
      </author>
      <author>
        <name>Rubin, Edward</name>
      </author>
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