BACKGROUND: An aging United States population profoundly impacts healthcare from both a medical and financial standpoint, especially with an increase in related procedures such as Total Hip Arthroplasty (THA). The Hospital Readmission Reduction Program and Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Program incentivize hospitals to decrease post-operative readmissions by correlating reimbursements with smoother care transitions, thereby decreasing hospital burden and improving quantifiable patient outcomes. Many studies have proposed predictive models built upon risk factors for predicting 30-day THA readmissions. QUESTIONS: (1) Are there validated statistical models that predict 30-day readmissions for THA patients when appraised with a standards-based, reliable assessment tool?. (2) Which evidence-based factors are significant and have support across models for predicting risk of 30-day readmissions post-THA? METHODS: Five major electronic databases were searched to identify studies that examined correlations between post-THA readmission and risk factors using multivariate models. We rigorously applied the PRISMA methodology and TRIPOD criteria for assessment of the prognostic studies. RESULTS: We found 26 studies that offered predictive models, of which two presented models tested with validation cohorts. In addition to the many factors grouped into demographic, administrative, and clinical categories, bleeding disorder, higher ASA status, discharge disposition, and functional status appeared to have broad and significant support across the studies. CONCLUSIONS: Reporting of recent predictive models establishing risk factors for 30-day THA readmissions against the current standard could be improved. Aside from building better performing models, more work is needed to follow the thorough process of undergoing calibration, external validation, and integration with existing EHR systems for pursuing their use in clinical settings. There are several risk factors that are significant in multiple models; these factors should be closely examined clinically and leveraged in future risk modeling efforts.

Aims

Readmission rates for patients with heart failure have consistently remained high over the past two decades. As more electronic data, computing power, and newer statistical techniques become available, data-driven care could be achieved by creating predictive models for adverse outcomes such as readmissions. We therefore aimed to review models for predicting risk of readmission for patients admitted for heart failure. We also aimed to analyze and possibly group the predictors used across the models.

Methods

Major electronic databases were searched to identify studies that examined correlation between readmission for heart failure and risk factors using multivariate models. We rigorously followed the review process using PRISMA methodology and other established criteria for quality assessment of the studies.

Results

We did a detailed review of 334 papers and found 25 multivariate predictive models built using data from either health system or trials. A majority of models was built using multiple logistic regression followed by Cox proportional hazards regression. Some newer studies ventured into non-parametric and machine learning methods. Overall predictive accuracy with C-statistics ranged from 0.59 to 0.84. We examined significant predictors across the studies using clinical, administrative, and psychosocial groups.

Conclusions

Complex disease management and correspondingly increasing costs for heart failure are driving innovations in building risk prediction models for readmission. Large volumes of diverse electronic data and new statistical methods have improved the predictive power of the models over the past two decades. More work is needed for calibration, external validation, and deployment of such models for clinical use.

BACKGROUND: An increase in the aging yet active US population will continue to make total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedures routine in the coming decades. For such joint procedures, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services introduced programs such as the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement to emphasize accountable and efficient transitions of care. Accordingly, many studies have proposed models using risk factors for predicting readmissions after the procedure. We performed a systematic review of TKA literature to identify such models and risk factors therein using a reliable appraisal tool for their quality assessment. METHODS: Five databases were searched to identify studies that examined correlations between post-TKA readmission and risk factors using multivariate models. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis methodology and Transparent Reporting of a multivariate prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis criteria established for quality assessment of prognostic studies. RESULTS: Of 29 models in the final selection, 6 models reported performance using a C-statistic, ranging from 0.51 to 0.76, and 2 studies used a validation cohort for assessment. The average 30-day and 90-day readmission rates across the studies were 5.33% and 7.12%, respectively. Three new significant risk factors were discovered. CONCLUSIONS: Current models for TKA readmissions lack in performance measurement and reporting when assessed with established criteria. In addition to using new techniques for better performance, work is needed to build models that follow the systematic process of calibration, external validation, and reporting for pursuing their deployment in clinical settings.

The UC Davis School of Medicine was proposing curriculum change that would have resulted in a reduction in curricular time for course content delivered by UC Davis Library (the “Library”). Since the Library continually monitors the curriculum, we seized this opportunity to connect with education leaders and re-envision Library content on evidence-based practice (“EBP”) at an even more developmentally appropriate place, earlier in the curriculum. Resultantly, we collaborated on a teaching session focusing on specialized information resources and the “Ask” and “Acquire” components of the EBP framework early in this new longitudinal thread on population health and evidence-based practice.