California has set goals for zero net energy buildings and greenhouse gas emissions reductions that will be achieved in part through the state’s building energy codes. Decisions about what measures to include in code are informed by building energy models that rely on historical climate data. However, even under moderate emissions scenarios, by 2050 mean temperatures in California are projected to increase by almost 4 degrees Fahrenheit compared to pre-1990 levels and there is evidence that current day temperatures are already shifted from the historical record. Not only do these energy models underlie cost-effectiveness analyses which influence the prescriptive code, they inform building system selection and sizing, and they are the basis for program incentive awards. While the general trends are predictable – as temperatures increase, average cooling energy increases and heating decreases – the effects of future climate on the state’s building policies have not been thoroughly analyzed. To what extent will lower winter heating loads increase the business case for buildings to electrify? Under future climate, are increased cooling efficiency measures cost-effective that aren’t today? How will future climate affect the energy and emissions performance of California’s buildings and what policies can be adopted today to future-proof them? This paper starts to address these questions by examining the performance of prototype buildings within a subset of California’s climate zones under past and future climate scenarios. It models energy efficiency measure variants to these prototypes and compares the energy, emission, cost, and thermal load outcomes under future climate scenarios compared to historical design weather and makes policy recommendations based on the results.

Observed global warming trends undermine the conventional practice of using historic weather files, such as Typical Meteorological Year (TMY), to predict building performance during the design process. In order to limit adverse impacts such as improperly sized mechanical equipment or thermal discomfort, it is important to consider how the building will perform in the future. Like all passive design strategies, natural ventilation, relies on local climate to be effective in improving building performance. This paper combines future weather files with whole building energy simulations to assess the sensitivity and feasibility of natural ventilation in providing thermal comfort in three locations, representing different climate types. The results show how building performance, as measured by thermal comfort metrics, changes over time. Natural ventilation can provide a buffer against warming climate, but only to a certain extent. Future weather files are useful for identifying where and when there is a risk that an exclusively passive design is no longer possible.

Grocery stores are one of the most energy intensive building types, which makes targets for zero net energy (ZNE) particularly challenging. This study builds on a prior computational optimization study to identify combinations of energy conservation measures (ECMs) for an existing grocery store in San Francisco. As the climate changes, also the retrofit recommendations based on simulation results from historical-based weather files may vary. In this paper, we looked at how the optimization results change when accounting for climatechanges over the building’s service life by using future weather files. We found that the expected changes in future weather are sufficient to alter retrofit recommendations. This type of analysis is thus important to ensure that buildings designed now can continue to meet performance objectives into the future.

Sleep is a pillar of human health and wellbeing. In high- and middle-income countries, there is a great reliance on heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems (HVAC) to control the interior thermal environment in the bedroom. However, these systems are expensive to buy, maintain, and operate while being energy and environmentally intensive-problems that may increase due to climate change. Easily-accessible passive and low-energy strategies, such as fans and electrical heated blankets, address these challenges but their comparative effectiveness for providing comfort in sleep environments has not been studied. We used a thermal manikin to experimentally show that many passive and low-energy strategies are highly effective in supplementing or replacing HVAC systems during sleep. Using passive strategies in combination with low-energy strategies that elevate air movement like ceiling or pedestal fans enhances the cooling effect by three times compared to using fans alone. We extrapolated our experimental findings to estimate heating and cooling effects in two historical case studies: the 2015 Pakistan heat wave and the 2021 Texas power crisis. Passive and low-energy strategies reduced sleep-time heat or cold exposure by 69-91%. The low-energy strategies we tested require one to two orders of magnitude less energy than HVAC systems, and the passive strategies require no energy input. These strategies can also help reduce peak load surges and total energy demand in extreme temperature events. This reduces the need for utility load shedding, which can put individuals at risk of hazardous heat or cold exposure. Our results may serve as a starting point for evidence-based public health guidelines on how individuals can sleep better during heat waves and cold snaps without relying on HVAC.