The SAMPL challenges focus on testing and driving progress of computational methods to help guide pharmaceutical drug discovery. However, assessment of methods for predicting binding affinities is often hampered by computational challenges such as conformational sampling, protonation state uncertainties, variation in test sets selected, and even lack of high quality experimental data. SAMPL blind challenges have thus frequently included a component focusing on host-guest binding, which removes some of these challenges while still focusing on molecular recognition. Here, we report on the results of the SAMPL7 blind prediction challenge for host-guest affinity prediction. In this study, we focused on three different host-guest categories-a familiar deep cavity cavitand series which has been featured in several prior challenges (where we examine binding of a series of guests to two hosts), a new series of cyclodextrin derivatives which are monofunctionalized around the rim to add amino acid-like functionality (where we examine binding of two guests to a series of hosts), and binding of a series of guests to a new acyclic TrimerTrip host which is related to previous cucurbituril hosts. Many predictions used methods based on molecular simulations, and overall success was mixed, though several methods stood out. As in SAMPL6, we find that one strategy for achieving reasonable accuracy here was to make empirical corrections to binding predictions based on previous data for host categories which have been studied well before, though this can be of limited value when new systems are included. Additionally, we found that alchemical free energy methods using the AMOEBA polarizable force field had considerable success for the two host categories in which they participated. The new TrimerTrip system was also found to introduce some sampling problems, because multiple conformations may be relevant to binding and interconvert only slowly. Overall, results in this challenge tentatively suggest that further investigation of polarizable force fields for these challenges may be warranted.

The SAMPL series of challenges aim to focus the community on specific modeling challenges, while testing and hopefully driving progress of computational methods to help guide pharmaceutical drug discovery. In this study, we report on the results of the SAMPL8 host-guest blind challenge for predicting absolute binding affinities. SAMPL8 focused on two host-guest datasets, one involving the cucurbituril CB8 (with a series of common drugs of abuse) and another involving two different Gibb deep-cavity cavitands. The latter dataset involved a previously featured deep cavity cavitand (TEMOA) as well as a new variant (TEETOA), both binding to a series of relatively rigid fragment-like guests. Challenge participants employed a reasonably wide variety of methods, though many of these were based on molecular simulations, and predictive accuracy was mixed. As in some previous SAMPL iterations (SAMPL6 and SAMPL7), we found that one approach to achieve greater accuracy was to apply empirical corrections to the binding free energy predictions, taking advantage of prior data on binding to these hosts. Another approach which performed well was a hybrid MD-based approach with reweighting to a force matched QM potential. In the cavitand challenge, an alchemical method using the AMOEBA-polarizable force field achieved the best success with RMSE less than 1 kcal/mol, while another alchemical approach (ATM/GAFF2-AM1BCC/TIP3P/HREM) had RMSE less than 1.75 kcal/mol. The work discussed here also highlights several important lessons; for example, retrospective studies of reference calculations demonstrate the sensitivity of predicted binding free energies to ethyl group sampling and/or guest starting pose, providing guidance to help improve future studies on these systems.