Hydrogeological field studies rely often on a single conceptual representation of the subsurface. This is problematic since the impact of a poorly chosen conceptual model on predictions might be significantly larger than the one caused by parameter uncertainty. Furthermore, conceptual models often need to incorporate geological concepts and patterns in order to provide meaningful uncertainty quantification and predictions. Consequently, several geologically realistic conceptual models should ideally be considered and evaluated in terms of their relative merits. Here, we propose a full Bayesian methodology based on Markov chain Monte Carlo to enable model selection among 2-D conceptual models that are sampled using training images and concepts from multiple-point statistics. More precisely, power posteriors for the different conceptual subsurface models are sampled using sequential geostatistical resampling and Graph Cuts. To demonstrate the methodology, we compare and rank five alternative conceptual geological models that have been proposed in the literature to describe aquifer heterogeneity at the MAcroDispersion Experiment site in Mississippi, USA. We consider a small-scale tracer test for which the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity impacts multilevel solute concentration data observed along a 2-D transect. The thermodynamic integration and the stepping-stone sampling methods were used to compute the evidence and associated Bayes factors using the computed power posteriors. We find that both methods are compatible with multiple-point statistics-based inversions and provide a consistent ranking of the competing conceptual models considered.

Homogeneous mixed-valence (MV) behaviour is one of the most intriguing phenomena of f-electron systems. Despite extensive efforts, a fundamental aspect which remains unsettled is the experimental determination of the limiting cases for which MV emerges. Here we address this question for SmB6, a prototypical MV system characterized by two nearly-degenerate Sm2+ and Sm3+ configurations. By combining angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) and x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), we track the evolution of the mean Sm valence, vSm, in the SmxLa1-xB6 series. Upon substitution of Sm ions with trivalent La, we observe a linear decrease of valence fluctuations to an almost complete suppression at x = 0.2, with vSm ~ 2; surprisingly, by further reducing x, a re-entrant increase of vSm develops, approaching the value of vimp ~ 2.35 in the dilute-impurity limit. Such behaviour departs from a monotonic evolution of vSm across the whole series, as well as from the expectation of its convergence to an integer value for x → 0. Our ARPES and XAS results, complemented by a phenomenological model, demonstrate an unconventional evolution of the MV character in the SmxLa1-xB6 series, paving the way to further theoretical and experimental considerations on the concept of MV itself, and its influence on the macroscopic properties of rare-earth compounds in the dilute-to-intermediate impurity regime.