The human and Earth systems are intricately linked: Climate influences agricultural production, renewable energy potential, and water availability, for example, while anthropogenic emissions from industry and land use change alter temperature and precipitation. Such feedbacks have the potential to significantly alter future climate change. These feedbacks may also exert significant changes on 21st-century energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections, but little is known about their possible magnitudes, or about regional and sector dynamics under different forcing scenarios. Here we use an integrated Earth System Model (ESM) featuring bidirectional information exchange between an economically-oriented integrated assessment model and the ESM to examine how human-natural feedbacks operate under high and medium radiative forcing (RF) scenarios. Specifically, we examine the effect of changing land productivity on human systems, and the effect of changing land use/land cover and CO2 emissions on the Earth system. We find that the effect of coupling differs across radiative forcing levels and across regions, due to differences in the climate signal, human responses to those signals, and regional characteristics. In particular, we find reductions in cropland area due to feedbacks in both the medium and high RF scenarios. In the medium RF scenario, these reductions result in increased area for bioenergy and afforestation and reduced energy system CO2 emissions, as the carbon price in this scenario incentivizes low carbon energy sources and terrestrial carbon storage; these incentives are absent in the high RF scenario. These differences are key to understanding the possible future evolution pathways of the integrated Earth system in response to 21st century climate change. Additional models and hypothesis testing are needed to determine exactly when and how bidirectional feedbacks between human and Earth systems should be considered in future assessments.

This study used the Biome Biogeochemical Cycles (Biome-BGC) process model to simulate boreal forest dynamics, compared the results with a variety of measured carbon content and flux data from two boreal chronosequences in northern Manitoba, Canada, and examined how model output was affected by water and nitrogen limitations on simulated plant production and decomposition. Vascular and nonvascular plant growth were modeled over 151 years in well-drained and poorly drained forests, using as many site-specific model parameters as possible. Measured data included (1) leaf area and carbon content from site-specific allometry data, (2) aboveground and belowground net primary production from allometry and root cores, and (3) flux data, including biometry-based net ecosystem production and tower-based net ecosystem exchange. The simulation used three vegetation types or functional groups (evergreen needleaf trees, deciduous broadleaf trees, and bryophytes). Model output matched some of the observed data well, with net primary production, biomass, and net ecosystem production (NEP) values usually (50–80% of data) within the errors of observed values. Leaf area was generally underpredicted. In the simulation, nitrogen limitation increased with stand age, while soil anoxia limited vascular plant growth in the poorly drained simulation. NEP was most sensitive to climate variability in the poorly drained stands. Simulation results are discussed with respect to conceptual issues in, and parameterization of, the Biome-BGC model.

Field observations of the soil-to-atmosphere CO2 flux—soil respiration, RS—are a prime example of ‘long tail’ data that historically have had neither centralized databases nor an agreed-upon reporting format. This has hindered scientific transparency, analytical reproducibility, and syntheses with respect to this globally-important component of the carbon cycle. Here we propose a new data and metadata reporting format for RS data, based on engagement with a wide range of researchers in the earth and ecological sciences as well as expert advisory panels. Our goal was a reporting format that would be relevant and useful for synthesis activities, optimizing data discoverability and usability while not placing an undue burden on data contributors. We describe previous RS data collection efforts, lessons learned from related databases and data-oriented networks (e.g., FLUXNET) in earth and ecological sciences, and the process of community consultation. The proposed reporting format focuses on chamber-level data and metadata, specifying measurement conditions and, for a given measurement period defined by beginning and ending timestamps, a mean RS flux (or CO2 concentration) and associated ancillary measurements. With input from the research community, we have also developed research data and metadata templates to support data collection adhering to the reporting format. Fundamentally, this format aims to enable findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable data, while providing ‘future-proofing’ capabilities to support reanalyses using as yet unknown algorithms or approaches. This proposed RS reporting format is openly available online and is intended to be a dynamic document, subject to further community feedback and/or change.

Most North American forests are at some stage of post-disturbance regrowth, subject to a changing climate, and exhibit growth and mortality patterns that may not be closely coupled to annual environmental conditions. Distinguishing the possibly interacting effects of these processes is necessary to put short-term studies in a longer term context, and particularly important for the carbon-dense, fire-prone boreal forest. The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean tree diameter increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly. Tree mortality averaged 1.4 ± 0.6% yr-(1), with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees; new recruitment was minimal. There have been at least two, and probably three, significant influxes of new trees since stand initiation, but none in recent decades. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from sampling in 2001, 2004, and 2012 showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Higher minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. We suggest that past climate extremes led to significant mortality still visible in the current forest structure, with decadal dynamics superimposed on slower patterns of fire and succession. These results have significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS, the carbon sequestration capability of old-growth stands in a disturbance-prone landscape, and the sustainable management of regional forests in a changing climate.

In response to rising interest over the years, many experiments and several models have been devised to understand emission of nitrous oxide (N2O) from agricultural soils. Notably absent from almost all of this discussion is iron, even though its role in both chemical and biochemical reactions that generate N2O was recognized well before research on N2O emission began to accelerate. We revisited iron by exploring its importance alongside other soil properties commonly believed to control N2O production in agricultural systems. A set of soils from California's main agricultural regions was used to observe N2O emission under conditions representative of typical field scenarios. Results of multivariate analysis showed that in five of the twelve different conditions studied, iron ranked higher than any other intrinsic soil property in explaining observed emissions across soils. Upcoming studies stand to gain valuable information by considering iron among the drivers of N2O emission, expanding the current framework to include coupling between biotic and abiotic reactions.

Increased fire frequency has been shown to promote alien plant invasions in the western United States, resulting in persistent vegetation type change. Short interval fires are widely considered to be detrimental to reestablishment of shrub species in southern California chaparral, facilitating the invasion of exotic annuals and producing "type conversion". However, supporting evidence for type conversion has largely been at local, site scales and over short post-fire time scales. Type conversion has not been shown to be persistent or widespread in chaparral, and past range improvement studies present evidence that chaparral type conversion may be difficult and a relatively rare phenomenon across the landscape. With the aid of remote sensing data covering coastal southern California and a historical wildfire dataset, the effects of short interval fires (<8 years) on chaparral recovery were evaluated by comparing areas that burned twice to adjacent areas burned only once. Twelve pairs of once- and twice-burned areas were compared using normalized burn ratio (NBR) distributions. Correlations between measures of recovery and explanatory factors (fire history, climate and elevation) were analyzed by linear regression. Reduced vegetation cover was found in some lower elevation areas that were burned twice in short interval fires, where non-sprouting species are more common. However, extensive type conversion of chaparral to grassland was not evident in this study. Most variables, with the exception of elevation, were moderately or poorly correlated with differences in vegetation recovery.

Numerous plant hydrodynamic models have started to be implemented in vegetation dynamics models, reflecting the central role of plant hydraulic traits in driving water, energy, and carbon cycles, as well as plant adaptation to climate change. Different numerical approximations of the governing equations of the hydrodynamic models have been documented, but the numerical accuracy of these models and its subsequent effects on the simulated vegetation function and dynamics have rarely been evaluated. Using different numerical solution methods (including implicit and explicit approaches) and vertical discrete grid resolutions, we evaluated the numerical performance of a plant hydrodynamic module in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES-HYDRO version 0.1) based on single-point and global simulations. Our simulation results showed that when near-surface vertical grid spacing is coarsened (grid size >10 cm), the model significantly overestimates aboveground biomass (AGB) in most of the temperate forest locations and underestimates AGB in the boreal forest locations, as compared to a simulation with finer vertical grid spacing. Grid coarsening has a small effect on AGB in the tropical zones of Asia and South America. In particular, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there are large and prolonged water content differences among soil layers at depths due to long dry-season duration and/or well-drained soil or when soil evaporation is a dominant fraction of evapotranspiration. Similarly, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there is lithologic discontinuity along the soil depth. This information is useful for uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, or the training of surrogate models to design the simulations when computational cost limits the use of ensemble simulations.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a major component in the global carbon cycle. Yet how input of plant litter may influence the loss of SOC through a phenomenon called priming effect remains highly uncertain. Most published results about the priming effect came from short-term investigations for a few weeks or at the most for a few months in duration. The priming effect has not been studied at the annual time scale. In this study for 815 days, we investigated the priming effect of added maize leaves on SOC decomposition of two soil types and two treatments (bare fallow for 23 years, and adjacent old-field, represent stable and relatively labile SOC, respectively) of SOC stabilities within each soil type, using a natural 13C-isotope method. Results showed that the variation of the priming effect through time had three distinctive phases for all soils: (1) a strong negative priming phase during the first period (≈0-90 days); (2) a pulse of positive priming phase in the middle (≈70-160 and 140-350 days for soils from Hailun and Shenyang stations, respectively); and (3) a relatively stabilized phase of priming during the last stage of the incubation (>160 days and >350 days for soils from Hailun and Shenyang stations, respectively). Because of major differences in soil properties, the two soil types produced different cumulative priming effects at the end of the experiment, a positive priming effect of 3-7% for the Mollisol and a negative priming effect of 4-8% for the Alfisol. Although soil types and measurement times modulated most of the variability of the priming effect, relative SOC stabilities also influenced the priming effect for a particular soil type and at a particular dynamic phase. The stable SOC from the bare fallow treatment tended to produce a narrower variability during the first phase of negative priming and also during the second phase of positive priming. Averaged over the entire experiment, the stable SOC (i.e., the bare fallow) was at least as responsive to priming as the relatively labile SOC (i.e., the old-field) if not more responsive. The annual time scale of our experiment allowed us to demonstrate the three distinctive phases of the priming effect. Our results highlight the importance of studying the priming effect by investigating the temporal dynamics over longer time scales.

Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are crucial contributors to global biogeochemical cycles and carbon exchange. The soil carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux in these transition zones is however poorly understood due to the high spatiotemporal dynamics of TAIs, as various sub-ecosystems in this region are compressed and expanded by complex influences of tides, changes in river levels, climate, and land use. We focus on the Chesapeake Bay region to (i) investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the coastal ecosystem and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics based on the spatial data layers, including vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, diversity, topography, soil property, and relative tidal elevation; (ii) understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. Specifically, we employed hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, followed by the determination of main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations. Maximum and minimum temperature are the main drivers common to all sub-ecosystems, while each region also has additional unique major drivers that differentiate them from one another. Precipitation exerts an influence on vegetated lands, while soil pH value holds importance specifically in forested lands. In croplands characterized by high clay content and low sand content, the significant role is attributed to bulk density. Wetlands demonstrate the importance of both elevation and sand content, with clay content being more relevant in non-inundated wetlands than in inundated wetlands. The topographic wetness index significantly contributes to the mixed vegetation areas, including shrub, grass, pasture, and forest. Additionally, our research reveals that dense vegetation land covers and urban/developed areas exhibit distinct soil property drivers. Overall, our research demonstrates an efficient method of employing various open-source remote sensing and GIS datasets to comprehend the spatial variability and soil respiration mechanisms in coastal TAI. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to modeling carbon fluxes released by soil respiration in coastal TAIs, and our study highlights the importance of further research and monitoring practices to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics and promote the sustainable management of coastal TAIs.