Background

Machine learning (ML) provides novel opportunities for human behavior research and clinical translation, yet its application can have noted pitfalls (Bone et al., 2015). In this work, we fastidiously utilize ML to derive autism spectrum disorder (ASD) instrument algorithms in an attempt to improve upon widely used ASD screening and diagnostic tools.

Methods

The data consisted of Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADI-R) and Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) scores for 1,264 verbal individuals with ASD and 462 verbal individuals with non-ASD developmental or psychiatric disorders, split at age 10. Algorithms were created via a robust ML classifier, support vector machine, while targeting best-estimate clinical diagnosis of ASD versus non-ASD. Parameter settings were tuned in multiple levels of cross-validation.

Results

The created algorithms were more effective (higher performing) than the current algorithms, were tunable (sensitivity and specificity can be differentially weighted), and were more efficient (achieving near-peak performance with five or fewer codes). Results from ML-based fusion of ADI-R and SRS are reported. We present a screener algorithm for below (above) age 10 that reached 89.2% (86.7%) sensitivity and 59.0% (53.4%) specificity with only five behavioral codes.

Conclusions

ML is useful for creating robust, customizable instrument algorithms. In a unique dataset comprised of controls with other difficulties, our findings highlight the limitations of current caregiver-report instruments and indicate possible avenues for improving ASD screening and diagnostic tools.

Individuals with serious mental illness experience changes in their clinical states over time that are difficult to assess and that result in increased disease burden and care utilization. It is not known if features derived from speech can serve as a transdiagnostic marker of these clinical states. This study evaluates the feasibility of collecting speech samples from people with serious mental illness and explores the potential utility for tracking changes in clinical state over time. Patients (n = 47) were recruited from a community-based mental health clinic with diagnoses of bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. Patients used an interactive voice response system for at least 4 months to provide speech samples. Clinic providers (n = 13) reviewed responses and provided global assessment ratings. We computed features of speech and used machine learning to create models of outcome measures trained using either population data or an individual's own data over time. The system was feasible to use, recording 1101 phone calls and 117 hours of speech. Most (92%) of the patients agreed that it was easy to use. The individually-trained models demonstrated the highest correlation with provider ratings (rho = 0.78, p<0.001). Population-level models demonstrated statistically significant correlations with provider global assessment ratings (rho = 0.44, p<0.001), future provider ratings (rho = 0.33, p<0.05), BASIS-24 summary score, depression sub score, and self-harm sub score (rho = 0.25,0.25, and 0.28 respectively; p<0.05), and the SF-12 mental health sub score (rho = 0.25, p<0.05), but not with other BASIS-24 or SF-12 sub scores. This study brings together longitudinal collection of objective behavioral markers along with a transdiagnostic, personalized approach for tracking of mental health clinical state in a community-based clinical setting.