We investigated the simulated iron budget in ocean surface waters in the 1990s and 2090s using the Community Earth System Model version 1 and the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 future CO₂ emission scenario. We assumed that exogenous iron inputs did not change during the whole simulation period; thus, iron budget changes were attributed solely to changes in ocean circulation and mixing in response to projected global warming, and the resulting impacts on marine biogeochemistry. The model simulated the major features of ocean circulation and dissolved iron distribution for the present climate. Detailed iron budget analysis revealed that roughly 70% of the iron supplied to surface waters in high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll (HNLC) regions is contributed by ocean circulation and mixing processes, but the dominant supply mechanism differed by region: upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and vertical mixing in the Southern Ocean. For the 2090s, our model projected an increased iron supply to HNLC waters, even though enhanced stratification was predicted to reduce iron entrainment from deeper waters. This unexpected result is attributed largely to changes in gyre-scale circulations that intensified the advective supply of iron to HNLC waters. The simulated primary and export production in the 2090s decreased globally by 6 and 13%, respectively, whereas in the HNLC regions, they increased by 11 and 6%, respectively. Roughly half of the elevated production could be attributed to the intensified iron supply. The projected ocean circulation and mixing changes are consistent with recent observations of responses to the warming climate and with other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project model projections. We conclude that future ocean circulation has the potential to increase iron supply to HNLC waters and will potentially buffer future reductions in ocean productivity.

Mechanisms controlling the dissolved iron distribution in the North Pacific are investigated using the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling (BEC) model with a resolution of approximately 1° in latitude and longitude and 60 vertical levels. The model is able to reproduce the general distribution of iron as revealed in available field data: surface concentrations are generally below 0.2 nM; concentrations increase with depth; and values in the lower pycnocline are especially high in the northwestern Pacific and off the coast of California. Sensitivity experiments changing scavenging regimes and external iron sources indicate that lateral transport of sedimentary iron from continental margins into the open ocean causes the high concentrations in these regions. This offshore penetration only appears under a scavenging regime where iron has a relatively long residence time at high concentrations, namely, the order of years. Sedimentary iron is intensively supplied around continental margins, resulting in locally high concentrations; the residence time with respect to scavenging determines the horizontal scale of elevated iron concentrations. Budget analysis for iron reveals the processes by which sedimentary iron is transported to the open ocean. Horizontal mixing transports sedimentary iron from the boundary into alongshore currents, which then carry high iron concentrations into the open ocean in regions where the alongshore currents separate from the coast, most prominently in the northwestern Pacific and off of California.