Early restoration efforts in San Francisco Bay focused primarily on establishing appropriate elevations for plant recruitment, based on plant distributions in natural wetlands. Sites were graded and planted, and tidal connections were re-established with the expectation that restored wetlands would quickly resemble natural ecosystems. Over time, restoration efforts have evolved, with the realization that natural development of restoration sites is preferable, including a dense channel network and the accumulation of soils of appropriate texture. Bay restoration efforts also have grown substantially in size and scope. Whereas projects of 50 hectares were considered large in the 1980s, now many projects are 100s of hectares. Larger projects are on the scale of 1000s of hectares, with the largest approximately 6000 hectares (the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project). This massive increase in scale has brought enormous restoration opportunities, but it also has increased the complexity of restoration projects and highlighted the necessity of large-scale public involvement. Awareness of non-native plants at restoration sites is just one example of factors that have increased restoration complexity. Potential impacts of climate change also have moved to the forefront of restoration design, as sea-level rise and potential shifts in salinity are critical factors for long-term restoration planning.

Climate change will affect tidal wetlands with higher rates of sea-level rise and higher concentrations of salt in brackish and freshwater tidal systems, in addition to causing increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, warmer temperatures, and shifts in precipitation. In the San Francisco Bay–Delta, the areas most likely to be affected—brackish and freshwater tidal wetlands—are also the sites with the majority of endemic plant species and the greater biodiversity and productivity. Effects on the San Francisco Bay– Delta estuary are complex and difficult to predict, but a few things are clear. Biodiversity of the tidal wetland system in the San Francisco Bay–Delta region will decline, with subsequent effects on ecosystem functioning and services. Altered plant production, physiological tolerances, and shifts in rates of mortality will modify wetland plant communities in ways not yet predictable. Lower ecosystem productivity from salinity increases will affect both primary and detrital-based food webs. Such changes will cascade via the food webs into invertebrate, bird, and pelagic systems. Tidal wetlands are especially sensitive to processes that climate change will alter. Several of these altered processes are exacerbated by water diversions from the Delta.

We analyzed tidal wetland vegetation patterns in the San Francisco Bay–Delta estuary (Bay–Delta) and discuss their significance for future conservation. Our objective was to conduct a balanced, random sample of six historic “remnant” tidal wetlands along a salinity gradient that ranged from southern San Pablo Bay to the lower Delta. We also wanted to compare diversity among these sites at five different scales, ranging from small subplots to total species per site. We randomly established twenty 0.1-ha plots at each site, and sampled ten 7-m2 circular subplots (subplot scale) in each plot for species presence and cover. We calculated total species per plot (plot scale) and total species per site (site scale) based on these subplot data. We calculated importance values for each species found in subplots based on frequency of occurrence and proportion of total cover at each site. In addition, we recorded species found within the 0.1-ha plot but not sampled in subplots (plot_all scale), and calculated the total species for each site based on these plot_all data (site_all scale). Thus, richness at each site was evaluated at five different scales that ranged from 7 m2 to 20,000 m2. We conducted a one-way ANOVA that compared mean richness among three scales with continuous data: subplot, plot, and plot_all. At lower estuary (San Pablo Bay) sites, richness values at these three scales were significantly lower than upper estuary (Suisun–Delta) sites. In Suisun–Delta sites, significant differences in richness varied, depending on sampling scale. Rush Ranch, a brackish wetland, had the highest average number of species per plot, whereas Sand Mound Slough, a freshwater wetland, had the highest average number of species at the subplot scale and the most total species at the site_all scale. Sand Mound Slough also had the highest number of unique species (22) compared to the other sites. We found a strong negative correlation (r2 = 0.99) between total species number and salinity (the most in the Delta at the lowest salinity, and the least at China Camp with the greatest salinity). Our analysis suggests the following conservation recommendations: (1) restore habitat for freshwater plant species diversity in the Delta; (2) restore transitional brackish wetland habitat in salt marshes of the San Pablo Bay and San Francisco Bay; and (3) focus on control of pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium) in brackish marshes.