Objectives

Surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) in drug-naive patients are typically used to survey HIV-1-transmitted drug resistance (TDR). We test here how SDRMs in patients failing treatment, the original source of TDR, contribute to assessing TDR, transmissibility and transmission source of SDRMs.

Design

This is a retrospective observational study analyzing a Portuguese cohort of HIV-1-infected patients.

Methods

The prevalence of SDRMs to protease inhibitors, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) in drug-naive and treatment-failing patients was measured for 3554 HIV-1 subtype B patients. Transmission ratio (prevalence in drug-naive/prevalence in treatment-failing patients), average viral load and robust linear regression with outlier detection (prevalence in drug-naive versus in treatment-failing patients) were analyzed and used to interpret transmissibility.

Results

Prevalence of SDRMs in drug-naive and treatment-failing patients were linearly correlated, but some SDRMs were classified as outliers - above (PRO: D30N, N88D/S, L90 M, RT: G190A/S/E) or below (RT: M184I/V) expectations. The normalized regression slope was 0.073 for protease inhibitors, 0.084 for NRTIs and 0.116 for NNRTIs. Differences between SDRMs transmission ratios were not associated with differences in viral loads.

Conclusion

The significant linear correlation between prevalence of SDRMs in drug-naive and in treatment-failing patients indicates that the prevalence in treatment-failing patients can be useful to predict levels of TDR. The slope is a cohort-dependent estimate of rate of TDR per drug class and outlier detection reveals comparative persistence of SDRMs. Outlier SDRMs with higher transmissibility are more persistent and more likely to have been acquired from drug-naive patients. Those with lower transmissibility have faster reversion dynamics after transmission and are associated with acquisition from treatment-failing patients.

BACKGROUND: Estimation of temporal changes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission patterns can help to elucidate the impact of preventive strategies and public health policies. METHODS: Portuguese HIV-1 subtype B and G pol genetic sequences were appended to global reference data sets to identify country-specific transmission clades. Bayesian birth-death models were used to estimate subtype-specific effective reproductive numbers (Re). Discrete trait analysis (DTA) was used to quantify mixing among transmission groups. RESULTS: We identified 5 subtype B Portuguese clades (26-79 sequences) and a large monophyletic subtype G Portuguese clade (236 sequences). We estimated that major shifts in HIV-1 transmission occurred around 1999 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 1998-2000) and 2000 (95% BCI, 1998-2001) for subtypes B and G, respectively. For subtype B, Re dropped from 1.91 (95% BCI, 1.73-2.09) to 0.62 (95% BCI,.52-.72). For subtype G, Re decreased from 1.49 (95% BCI, 1.39-1.59) to 0.72 (95% BCI, .63-.8). The DTA suggests that people who inject drugs (PWID) and heterosexuals were the source of most (>80%) virus lineage transitions for subtypes G and B, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated declines in Re coincide with the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy and the scale-up of harm reduction for PWID. Inferred transmission events across transmission groups emphasize the importance of prevention efforts for bridging populations.