The prediction of acid dissociation constants (pK_a) is a prerequisite for predicting many other properties of a small molecule, such as its protein-ligand binding affinity, distribution coefficient (log D), membrane permeability, and solubility. The prediction of each of these properties requires knowledge of the relevant protonation states and solution free energy penalties of each state. The SAMPL6 pK_a Challenge was the first time that a separate challenge was conducted for evaluating pK_a predictions as part of the Statistical Assessment of Modeling of Proteins and Ligands (SAMPL) exercises. This challenge was motivated by significant inaccuracies observed in prior physical property prediction challenges, such as the SAMPL5 log D Challenge, caused by protonation state and pK_a prediction issues. The goal of the pK_a challenge was to assess the performance of contemporary pK_a prediction methods for drug-like molecules. The challenge set was composed of 24 small molecules that resembled fragments of kinase inhibitors, a number of which were multiprotic. Eleven research groups contributed blind predictions for a total of 37 pK_a distinct prediction methods. In addition to blinded submissions, four widely used pK_a prediction methods were included in the analysis as reference methods. Collecting both microscopic and macroscopic pK_a predictions allowed in-depth evaluation of pK_a prediction performance. This article highlights deficiencies of typical pK_a prediction evaluation approaches when the distinction between microscopic and macroscopic pK_as is ignored; in particular, we suggest more stringent evaluation criteria for microscopic and macroscopic pK_a predictions guided by the available experimental data. Top-performing submissions for macroscopic pK_a predictions achieved RMSE of 0.7-1.0 pK_a units and included both quantum chemical and empirical approaches, where the total number of extra or missing macroscopic pK_as predicted by these submissions were fewer than 8 for 24 molecules. A large number of submissions had RMSE spanning 1-3 pK_a units. Molecules with sulfur-containing heterocycles or iodo and bromo groups were less accurately predicted on average considering all methods evaluated. For a subset of molecules, we utilized experimentally-determined microstates based on NMR to evaluate the dominant tautomer predictions for each macroscopic state. Prediction of dominant tautomers was a major source of error for microscopic pK_a predictions, especially errors in charged tautomers. The degree of inaccuracy in pK_a predictions observed in this challenge is detrimental to the protein-ligand binding affinity predictions due to errors in dominant protonation state predictions and the calculation of free energy corrections for multiple protonation states. Underestimation of ligand pK_a by 1 unit can lead to errors in binding free energy errors up to 1.2 kcal/mol. The SAMPL6 pK_a Challenge demonstrated the need for improving pK_a prediction methods for drug-like molecules, especially for challenging moieties and multiprotic molecules.

A novel crystallographic fragment screening data set was generated and used in the SAMPL7 challenge for protein-ligands. The SAMPL challenges prospectively assess the predictive power of methods involved in computer-aided drug design. Application of various methods to fragment molecules are now widely used in the search for new drugs. However, there is little in the way of systematic validation specifically for fragment-based approaches. We have performed a large crystallographic high-throughput fragment screen against the therapeutically relevant second bromodomain of the Pleckstrin-homology domain interacting protein (PHIP2) that revealed 52 different fragments bound across 4 distinct sites, 47 of which were bound to the pharmacologically relevant acetylated lysine (Kac) binding site. These data were used to assess computational screening, binding pose prediction and follow-up enumeration. All submissions performed randomly for screening. Pose prediction success rates (defined as less than 2 Å root mean squared deviation against heavy atom crystal positions) ranged between 0 and 25% and only a very few follow-up compounds were deemed viable candidates from a medicinal-chemistry perspective based on a common molecular descriptors analysis. The tight deadlines imposed during the challenge led to a small number of submissions suggesting that the accuracy of rapidly responsive workflows remains limited. In addition, the application of these methods to reproduce crystallographic fragment data still appears to be very challenging. The results show that there is room for improvement in the development of computational tools particularly when applied to fragment-based drug design.

The SAMPL Challenges aim to focus the biomolecular and physical modeling community on issues that limit the accuracy of predictive modeling of protein-ligand binding for rational drug design. In the SAMPL5 log D Challenge, designed to benchmark the accuracy of methods for predicting drug-like small molecule transfer free energies from aqueous to nonpolar phases, participants found it difficult to make accurate predictions due to the complexity of protonation state issues. In the SAMPL6 log P Challenge, we asked participants to make blind predictions of the octanol-water partition coefficients of neutral species of 11 compounds and assessed how well these methods performed absent the complication of protonation state effects. This challenge builds on the SAMPL6 p[Formula: see text] Challenge, which asked participants to predict p[Formula: see text] values of a superset of the compounds considered in this log P challenge. Blind prediction sets of 91 prediction methods were collected from 27 research groups, spanning a variety of quantum mechanics (QM) or molecular mechanics (MM)-based physical methods, knowledge-based empirical methods, and mixed approaches. There was a 50% increase in the number of participating groups and a 20% increase in the number of submissions compared to the SAMPL5 log D Challenge. Overall, the accuracy of octanol-water log P predictions in SAMPL6 Challenge was higher than cyclohexane-water log D predictions in SAMPL5, likely because modeling only the neutral species was necessary for log P and several categories of method benefited from the vast amounts of experimental octanol-water log P data. There were many highly accurate methods: 10 diverse methods achieved RMSE less than 0.5 log P units. These included QM-based methods, empirical methods, and mixed methods with physical modeling supported with empirical corrections. A comparison of physical modeling methods showed that QM-based methods outperformed MM-based methods. The average RMSE of the most accurate five MM-based, QM-based, empirical, and mixed approach methods based on RMSE were 0.92 ± 0.13, 0.48 ± 0.06, 0.47 ± 0.05, and 0.50 ± 0.06, respectively.

Developing accurate classical force field representations of molecules is key to realizing the full potential of molecular simulations, both as a powerful route to gaining fundamental insights into a broad spectrum of chemical and biological phenomena and for predicting physicochemical and mechanical properties of substances. The Open Force Field Consortium is an industry-funded open science effort to this end, developing open-source tools for rapidly generating new high-quality small-molecule force fields. An integral aspect of this is the parameterization and assessment of force fields against high-quality, condensed-phase physical property data, curated from open data sources such as the NIST ThermoML Archive, alongside quantum chemical data. The quantity of such experimental data in open data archives alone would require an onerous amount of human and computational resources to both curate and estimate manually, especially when estimations must be obtained for numerous sets of force field parameters. Here, we present an entirely automated, highly scalable framework for evaluating physical properties and their gradients in terms of force field parameters. It is written as a modular and extensible Python framework, which employs an intelligent multiscale estimation approach that allows for the automated estimation of properties from simulation and cached simulation data, and a pluggable API for estimation of new properties. In this study, we demonstrate the utility of the framework by benchmarking the OpenFF 1.0.0 small-molecule force field and GAFF 1.8 and GAFF 2.1 force fields against a test set of binary density and enthalpy of mixing measurements curated using the framework utilities. Further, we demonstrate the framework's utility as part of force field optimization by using it alongside ForceBalance, a framework for systematic force field optimization, to retrain a set of nonbonded van der Waals parameters against a training set of density and enthalpy of vaporization measurements.

Partition coefficients describe the equilibrium partitioning of a single, defined charge state of a solute between two liquid phases in contact, typically a neutral solute. Octanol-water partition coefficients ([Formula: see text]), or their logarithms (log P), are frequently used as a measure of lipophilicity in drug discovery. The partition coefficient is a physicochemical property that captures the thermodynamics of relative solvation between aqueous and nonpolar phases, and therefore provides an excellent test for physics-based computational models that predict properties of pharmaceutical relevance such as protein-ligand binding affinities or hydration/solvation free energies. The SAMPL6 Part II octanol-water partition coefficient prediction challenge used a subset of kinase inhibitor fragment-like compounds from the SAMPL6 [Formula: see text] prediction challenge in a blind experimental benchmark. Following experimental data collection, the partition coefficient dataset was kept blinded until all predictions were collected from participating computational chemistry groups. A total of 91 submissions were received from 27 participating research groups. This paper presents the octanol-water log P dataset for this SAMPL6 Part II partition coefficient challenge, which consisted of 11 compounds (six 4-aminoquinazolines, two benzimidazole, one pyrazolo[3,4-d]pyrimidine, one pyridine, one 2-oxoquinoline substructure containing compounds) with log P values in the range of 1.95-4.09. We describe the potentiometric log P measurement protocol used to collect this dataset using a Sirius T3, discuss the limitations of this experimental approach, and share suggestions for future log P data collection efforts for the evaluation of computational methods.

Ensemble docking corresponds to the generation of an "ensemble" of drug target conformations in computational structure-based drug discovery, often obtained by using molecular dynamics simulation, that is used in docking candidate ligands. This approach is now well established in the field of early-stage drug discovery. This review gives a historical account of the development of ensemble docking and discusses some pertinent methodological advances in conformational sampling.

Solvation free energies can now be calculated precisely from molecular simulations, providing a valuable test of the energy functions underlying these simulations. Here, we briefly review "alchemical" approaches for calculating the solvation free energies of small, neutral organic molecules from molecular simulations, and illustrate by applying them to calculate aqueous solvation free energies (hydration free energies). These approaches use a non-physical pathway to compute free energy differences from a simulation or set of simulations and appear to be a particularly robust and general-purpose approach for this task. We also present an update (version 0.5) to our FreeSolv database of experimental and calculated hydration free energies of neutral compounds and provide input files in formats for several simulation packages. This revision to FreeSolv provides calculated values generated with a single protocol and software version, rather than the heterogeneous protocols used in the prior version of the database. We also further update the database to provide calculated enthalpies and entropies of hydration and some experimental enthalpies and entropies, as well as electrostatic and nonpolar components of solvation free energies.