Every year, 11% of infants are born preterm with significant health consequences, with the vaginal microbiome a risk factor for preterm birth. We crowdsource models to predict (1) preterm birth (PTB; <37 weeks) or (2) early preterm birth (ePTB; <32 weeks) from 9 vaginal microbiome studies representing 3,578 samples from 1,268 pregnant individuals, aggregated from public raw data via phylogenetic harmonization. The predictive models are validated on two independent unpublished datasets representing 331 samples from 148 pregnant individuals. The top-performing models (among 148 and 121 submissions from 318 teams) achieve area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve scores of 0.69 and 0.87 predicting PTB and ePTB, respectively. Alpha diversity, VALENCIA community state types, and composition are important features in the top-performing models, most of which are tree-based methods. This work is a model for translation of microbiome data into clinically relevant predictive models and to better understand preterm birth.

Recent technological developments allow us to measure the status of dozens of proteins in individual cells. This opens the way to understand the heterogeneity of complex multi-signaling networks across cells and cell types, with important implications to understand and treat diseases such as cancer. These technologies are, however, limited to proteins for which antibodies are available and are fairly costly, making predictions of new markers and of existing markers under new conditions a valuable alternative. To assess our capacity to make such predictions and boost further methodological development, we organized the Single Cell Signaling in Breast Cancer DREAM challenge. We used a mass cytometry dataset, covering 36 markers in over 4,000 conditions totaling 80 million single cells across 67 breast cancer cell lines. Through four increasingly difficult subchallenges, the participants predicted missing markers, new conditions, and the time-course response of single cells to stimuli in the presence and absence of kinase inhibitors. The challenge results show that despite the stochastic nature of signal transduction in single cells, the signaling events are tightly controlled and machine learning methods can accurately predict new experimental data.