Forest harvesting can impact site quality by removing essential nutrients, exacerbating the effects of historic base cation losses associated with acid deposition. We studied the 30-year trajectory of forest recovery from clearcutting (whole-tree harvest (WTH)) in a forest originally dominated by sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.). At both the watershed scale (21.9 ha) and the “detailed” plot scale (1 m2), a dramatic decline of sugar maple was observed, along with maintenance of American beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.) and an increase in birch, mainly yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britt.). Many of the “detailed” plots where sugar maple failed to recruit became unoccupied rather than being “won” by another species. The decline of sugar maple was most severe in the upper elevation zones of the watershed, where low base status (especially Ca) of the soils was a likely driver. The results support previous studies indicating that regeneration by sugar maple is severely compromised on base cation depleted soils. Lower survival of seedlings for sugar maple emphasized the importance of maintaining advance regeneration to favor desired species such as sugar maple. Foresters should consider that sites with low base saturation and exchangeable Ca are likely to exhibit regeneration failure for sugar maple in the long term, even those with initial dominance by this species.

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worldwide allowed us to examine hypotheses that are central to quantifying reproduction, a foundation for assessing fitness in forest trees. Four major findings emerged. First, seed production is not constrained by a strict trade-off between seed size and numbers. Instead, seed numbers vary over ten orders of magnitude, with species that invest in large seeds producing more seeds than expected from the 1:1 trade-off. Second, gymnosperms have lower seed production than angiosperms, potentially due to their extra investments in protective woody cones. Third, nutrient-demanding species, indicated by high foliar phosphorus concentrations, have low seed production. Finally, sensitivity of individual species to soil fertility varies widely, limiting the response of community seed production to fertility gradients. In combination, these findings can inform models of forest response that need to incorporate reproductive potential.