Background

A mechanistic understanding of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and diligent tracking of ongoing mutagenesis are of key importance to plan robust strategies for confining its transmission. Large numbers of available sequences and their dates of transmission provide an unprecedented opportunity to analyze evolutionary adaptation in novel ways. Addition of high-resolution structural information can reveal the functional basis of these processes at the molecular level. Integrated systems biology-directed analyses of these data layers afford valuable insights to build a global understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results

Here we identify globally distributed haplotypes from 15,789 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and model their success based on their duration, dispersal, and frequency in the host population. Our models identify mutations that are likely compensatory adaptive changes that allowed for rapid expansion of the virus. Functional predictions from structural analyses indicate that, contrary to previous reports, the Asp⁶¹⁴Gly mutation in the spike glycoprotein (S) likely reduced transmission and the subsequent Pro³²³Leu mutation in the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase led to the precipitous spread of the virus. Our model also suggests that two mutations in the nsp13 helicase allowed for the adaptation of the virus to the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Finally, our explainable artificial intelligence algorithm identified a mutational hotspot in the sequence of S that also displays a signature of positive selection and may have implications for tissue or cell-specific expression of the virus.

Conclusions

These results provide valuable insights for the development of drugs and surveillance strategies to combat the current and future pandemics.

Human population growth and accelerated climate change necessitate agricultural improvements using designer crop ideotypes (idealized plants that can grow in niche environments). Diverse and highly skilled research groups must integrate efforts to bridge the gaps needed to achieve international goals toward sustainable agriculture. Given the scale of global agricultural needs and the breadth of multiple types of omics data needed to optimize these efforts, explainable artificial intelligence (AI with a decipherable decision making process that provides a meaningful explanation to humans) and exascale computing (computers that can perform 10¹⁸ floating-point operations per second, or exaflops) are crucial. Accurate phenotyping and daily-resolution climatype associations are equally important for refining ideotype production to specific environments at various levels of granularity. We review advances toward tackling technological hurdles to solve multiple United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and discuss a vision to overcome gaps between research and policy.