Ecological niche models and species distribution models (ENM and SDM, respectively) are tools that have seen massive use and considerable improvement during the last twenty years. The choice of calibration areas for such models has strong effects on model outcomes and model interpretation, as well as on model transfer to distinct environmental settings. However, approaches to selecting these areas remain simple and/or unlinked to biological concepts. Such models should be calibrated within areas that the species of interest has explored throughout its recent history, the accessible area (M). In this paper, we provide a simulation approach for estimating a species’ M considering processes of dispersal, colonization, and extinction in constant current climate or glacial-interglacial climate change frameworks, implemented within a new R package we developed called grinnell. Using the avian genus Aphelocoma, we explored different parameterizations of our simulation, and compared them to current approaches for M selection, in terms of model performance and risk of extrapolation using the algorithm Maxent and mobility-oriented parity analyses. Model calibration exercises from all approaches resulted in at least one model meeting optimal performance criteria for each species; however, we noted high variability among taxa and M selection methods. More importantly, M hypotheses derived directly from simulations of key biological processes, rather than being based on simple proxies of those processes, and as such are better suited to erecting biologically appropriate contrasts in model calibration, and to characterizing the potential for model extrapolation more rigorously. Major factors in our simulations were environmental layer resolution, dispersal kernel characteristics, and the inclusion of a changing framework of climatic conditions. This contribution represents the first simulation-based method for selecting calibration areas for ENM and SDM, offering a quantitative approach to estimate the accessible area of a species while considering its dispersal ability, along with patterns of change in environmental suitability across space and time.

Larvae of Urania moths feed exclusively on Omphalea plants, which are widely distributed in the Neotropics. However, the distributions of the two Urania species in this region are disjunct. This distributional pattern could derive from the presence of the Andes, but it could also be related to differences in ecological niches, the presence of negative interactions, or the absence of conditions that can only be observed at a habitat level. We tested whether differences in the ecological niches of continental Urania moths play a role in their disjunct distribution. Using species records and climatic variables, we characterized the ecological niches of Urania moths and their host plants and analyzed the overlap of the moths' niches. Using ecoregions as a proxy of habitat-level environmental conditions, we explored the role of host plant availability on the moth distributions. Suitable conditions for the species were widespread, with a lack of suitability mostly restricted to the Andean highlands. The two moth distributions were closely related to that of their host plants. There was medium-high overlap of niche models when available conditions were considered; however, niche overlap was not found to be statistically significant. Our results corroborate the barrier effect of the Andes on the dispersal of these moths, but they also show that niche differences contribute to the disjunct distributions of U. fulgens and U. leilus. Furthermore, other non-climatic factors appear to play a crucial role in the disjunction of the species ranges in areas where overlapping suitable conditions are continuous. Our findings support speciation in Urania moths as allopatric and indicate that their disjunct distributions can be attributed to multiple factors. Other studies exploring the causes of similar distributional patterns should consider that a single factor may not be enough to explain such patterns.