Increasing temperatures during climate change are known to alter the phenology across diverse plant taxa, but the evolutionary outcomes of these shifts are poorly understood. Moreover, plant temperature-sensing pathways are known to interact with competition-sensing pathways, yet there remains little experimental evidence for how genotypes varying in temperature responsiveness react to warming in realistic competitive settings. We compared flowering time and fitness responses to warming and competition for two near-isogenic lines (NILs) of Arabidopsis thaliana transgressively segregating temperature-sensitive and temperature-insensitive alleles for major-effect flowering time genes. We grew focal plants of each genotype in intraspecific and interspecific competition in four treatments contrasting daily temperature profiles in summer and fall under contemporary and warmed conditions. We measured phenology and fitness of focal plants to quantify plastic responses to season, temperature and competition and the dependence of these responses on flowering time genotype. The temperature-insensitive NIL was constitutively early flowering and less fit, except in a future-summer climate in which its fitness was higher than the later flowering, temperature-sensitive NIL in low competition. The late-flowering NIL showed accelerated flowering in response to intragenotypic competition and to increased temperature in the summer but delayed flowering in the fall. However, its fitness fell with rising temperatures in both seasons, and in the fall its marginal fitness gain from decreasing competition was diminished in the future. Functional alleles at temperature-responsive genes were necessary for plastic responses to season, warming and competition. However, the plastic genotype was not the most fit in every experimental condition, becoming less fit than the temperature-canalized genotype in the warm summer treatment. Climate change is often predicted to have deleterious effects on plant populations, and our results show how increased temperatures can act through genotype-dependent phenology to decrease fitness. Furthermore, plasticity is not necessarily adaptive in rapidly changing environments since a nonplastic genotype proved fitter than a plastic genotype in a warming climate treatment. A plain language summary is available for this article.

If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species' native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species' native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation.

Contrary to previous assumptions that most mutations are deleterious, there is increasing evidence for persistence of large-effect mutations in natural populations. A possible explanation for these observations is that mutant phenotypes and fitness may depend upon the specific environmental conditions to which a mutant is exposed. Here, we tested this hypothesis by growing large-effect flowering time mutants of Arabidopsis thaliana in multiple field sites and seasons to quantify their fitness effects in realistic natural conditions. By constructing environment-specific fitness landscapes based on flowering time and branching architecture, we observed that a subset of mutations increased fitness, but only in specific environments. These mutations increased fitness via different paths: through shifting flowering time, branching, or both. Branching was under stronger selection, but flowering time was more genetically variable, pointing to the importance of indirect selection on mutations through their pleiotropic effects on multiple phenotypes. Finally, mutations in hub genes with greater connectedness in their regulatory networks had greater effects on both phenotypes and fitness. Together, these findings indicate that large-effect mutations may persist in populations because they influence traits that are adaptive only under specific environmental conditions. Understanding their evolutionary dynamics therefore requires measuring their effects in multiple natural environments.

The genetic basis of growth and development is often studied in constant laboratory environments; however, the environmental conditions that organisms experience in nature are often much more dynamic. We examined how daily temperature fluctuations, average temperature, day length and vernalization influence the flowering time of 59 genotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana with allelic perturbations known to affect flowering time. For a subset of genotypes, we also assessed treatment effects on morphology and growth. We identified 17 genotypes, many of which have high levels of the floral repressor FLOWERING LOCUS C (FLC), that bolted dramatically earlier in fluctuating - as opposed to constant - warm temperatures (mean = 22°C). This acceleration was not caused by transient VERNALIZATION INSENSITIVE 3-mediated vernalization, differential growth rates or exposure to high temperatures, and was not apparent when the average temperature was cool (mean = 12°C). Further, in constant temperatures, contrary to physiological expectations, these genotypes flowered more rapidly in cool than in warm environments. Fluctuating temperatures often reversed these responses, restoring faster bolting in warm conditions. Independently of bolting time, warm fluctuating temperature profiles also caused morphological changes associated with shade avoidance or 'high-temperature' phenotypes. Our results suggest that previous studies have overestimated the effect of the floral repressor FLC on flowering time by using constant temperature laboratory conditions.

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.