Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its star's habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here, we use 1-D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for several evolutionary scenarios, including high-O₂, high-CO₂, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with both oxic and anoxic compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen b's position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and use instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states. These results are applicable not only to Proxima Cen b but to other terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Thermal phase curves may provide the first constraint on the existence of an atmosphere. We find that James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations longward of 10 μm could characterize atmospheric heat transport and molecular composition. Detection of ocean glint is unlikely with JWST but may be within the reach of larger-aperture telescopes. Direct imaging spectra may detect O₄ absorption, which is diagnostic of massive water loss and O₂ retention, rather than a photosynthetic biosphere. Similarly, strong CO₂ and CO bands at wavelengths shortward of 2.5 μm would indicate a CO₂-dominated atmosphere. If the planet is habitable and volatile-rich, direct imaging will be the best means of detecting habitability. Earth-like planets with microbial biospheres may be identified by the presence of CH₄-which has a longer atmospheric lifetime under Proxima Centauri's incident UV-and either photosynthetically produced O₂ or a hydrocarbon haze layer. Key Words: Planetary habitability and biosignatures-Planetary atmospheres-Exoplanets-Spectroscopic biosignatures-Planetary science-Proxima Centauri b. Astrobiology 18, 133-189.

Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its star's habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here we use 1D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for evolutionary scenarios predicted in our companion paper (Barnes et al., 2016). These include high-O2, high-CO2, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with either oxidizing or reducing compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen b's position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states. These results are applicable not only to Proxima Cen b, but to other terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Thermal phase curves may provide the first constraint on the existence of an atmosphere, and JWST observations longward of 7 microns could characterize atmospheric heat transport and molecular composition. Detection of ocean glint is unlikely with JWST, but may be within the reach of larger aperture telescopes. Direct imaging spectra may detect O4, which is diagnostic of massive water loss and O2 retention, rather than a photosynthesis. Similarly, strong CO2 and CO bands at wavelengths shortward of 2.5 {\mu}m would indicate a CO2-dominated atmosphere. If the planet is habitable and volatile-rich, direct imaging will be the best means of detecting habitability. Earth-like planets with microbial biospheres may be identified by the presence of CH4 and either photosynthetically produced O2 or a hydrocarbon haze layer.

Abstract The observation of a 266.94 GHz feature in the Venus spectrum has been attributed to phosphine (PH3) in the Venus clouds, suggesting unexpected geological, chemical, or even biological processes. Since both PH3 and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are spectrally active near 266.94 GHz, the contribution to this line from SO2 must be determined before it can be attributed, in whole or part, to PH3. An undetected SO2 reference line, interpreted as an unexpectedly low SO2 abundance, suggested that the 266.94 GHz feature could be attributed primarily to PH3. However, the low SO2 and the inference that PH3 was in the cloud deck posed an apparent contradiction. Here we use a radiative transfer model to analyze the PH3 discovery, and explore the detectability of different vertical distributions of PH3 and SO2. We find that the 266.94 GHz line does not originate in the clouds, but above 80 km in the Venus mesosphere. This level of line formation is inconsistent with chemical modeling that assumes generation of PH3 in the Venus clouds. Given the extremely short chemical lifetime of PH3 in the Venus mesosphere, an implausibly high source flux would be needed to maintain the observed value of 20 ± 10 ppb. We find that typical Venus SO2 vertical distributions and abundances fit the JCMT 266.94 GHz feature, and the resulting SO2 reference line at 267.54 GHz would have remained undetectable in the ALMA data due to line dilution. We conclude that nominal mesospheric SO2 is a more plausible explanation for the JCMT and ALMA data than PH3.

Activity reductions in early 2020 due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic led to unprecedented decreases in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Despite their record size, the resulting atmospheric signals are smaller than and obscured by climate variability in atmospheric transport and biospheric fluxes, notably that related to the 2019–2020 Indian Ocean Dipole. Monitoring CO₂ anomalies and distinguishing human and climatic causes thus remain a new frontier in Earth system science. We show that the impact of short-term regional changes in fossil fuel emissions on CO₂ concentrations was observable from space. Starting in February and continuing through May, column CO₂ over many of the world’s largest emitting regions was 0.14 to 0.62 parts per million less than expected in a pandemic-free scenario, consistent with reductions of 3 to 13% in annual global emissions. Current spaceborne technologies are therefore approaching levels of accuracy and precision needed to support climate mitigation strategies with future missions expected to meet those needs.

The COVID-19 global pandemic and associated government lockdowns dramatically altered human activity, providing a window into how changes in individual behavior, enacted en masse, impact atmospheric composition. The resulting reductions in anthropogenic activity represent an unprecedented event that yields a glimpse into a future where emissions to the atmosphere are reduced. Furthermore, the abrupt reduction in emissions during the lockdown periods led to clearly observable changes in atmospheric composition, which provide direct insight into feedbacks between the Earth system and human activity. While air pollutants and greenhouse gases share many common anthropogenic sources, there is a sharp difference in the response of their atmospheric concentrations to COVID-19 emissions changes, due in large part to their different lifetimes. Here, we discuss several key takeaways from modeling and observational studies. First, despite dramatic declines in mobility and associated vehicular emissions, the atmospheric growth rates of greenhouse gases were not slowed, in part due to decreased ocean uptake of CO₂ and a likely increase in CH₄ lifetime from reduced NO _x emissions. Second, the response of O₃ to decreased NO _x emissions showed significant spatial and temporal variability, due to differing chemical regimes around the world. Finally, the overall response of atmospheric composition to emissions changes is heavily modulated by factors including carbon-cycle feedbacks to CH₄ and CO₂, background pollutant levels, the timing and location of emissions changes, and climate feedbacks on air quality, such as wildfires and the ozone climate penalty.