Objectives

We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris.

Methods

We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis.

Results

We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change.

Conclusion

We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future.

Background

Heat and air pollution are both associated with increases in mortality. However, the interactive effect of temperature and air pollution on mortality remains unsettled. Similarly, the relationship between air pollution, air temperature, and social deprivation has never been explored.

Methods

We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009, daily mean temperature variables and relative humidity, for Paris, France. Estimates of chronic exposure to air pollution and social deprivation at a small spatial scale were calculated and split into three strata. We developed a stratified Poisson regression models to assess daily temperature and mortality associations, and tested the heterogeneity of the regression coefficients of the different strata. Deaths due to ambient temperature were calculated from attributable fractions and mortality rates were estimated.

Results

We found that chronic air pollution exposure and social deprivation are effect modifiers of the association between daily temperature and mortality. We found a potential interactive effect between social deprivation and chronic exposure with regards to air pollution in the mortality-temperature relationship.

Conclusion

Our results may have implications in considering chronically polluted areas as vulnerable in heat action plans and in the long-term measures to reduce the burden of heat stress especially in the context of climate change.

Infant and neonatal mortality indicators are known to vary geographically, possibly as a result of socioeconomic and environmental inequalities. To better understand how these factors contribute to spatial and temporal patterns, we conducted a French ecological study comparing two time periods between 2002 and 2009 for three (purposefully distinct) Metropolitan Areas (MAs) and the city of Paris, using the French census block of parental residence as the geographic unit of analysis. We identified areas of excess risk and assessed the role of neighborhood deprivation and average nitrogen dioxide concentrations using generalized additive models to generate maps smoothed on longitude and latitude. Comparison of the two time periods indicated that statistically significant areas of elevated infant and neonatal mortality shifted northwards for the city of Paris, are present only in the earlier time period for Lille MA, only in the later time period for Lyon MA, and decrease over time for Marseille MA. These city-specific geographic patterns in neonatal and infant mortality are largely explained by socioeconomic and environmental inequalities. Spatial analysis can be a useful tool for understanding how risk factors contribute to disparities in health outcomes ranging from infant mortality to infectious disease-a leading cause of infant mortality.

Several studies have documented that more deprived populations tend to live in areas characterized by higher levels of environmental pollution. Yet, time trends and geographic patterns of this disproportionate distribution of environmental burden remain poorly assessed, especially in Europe. We investigated the spatial and temporal relationship between ambient air nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations and socioeconomic and demographic data in four French metropolitan areas (Lille in the North, Lyon in the center, Marseille in the South, and Paris) during two different time periods. The geographical unit used was the census block. The dependent variable was the NO2 annual average concentration (μg/m(3)) per census block, and the explanatory variables were a neighborhood deprivation index and socioeconomic and demographic data derived from the national census. Generalized additive models were used to account for spatial autocorrelation. We found that the strength and direction of the association between deprivation and NO2 estimates varied between cities. In Paris, census blocks with the higher social categories are exposed to higher mean concentrations of NO2. However, in Lille and Marseille, the most deprived census blocks are the most exposed to NO2. In Lyon, the census blocks in the middle social categories were more likely to have higher concentrations than in the lower social categories. Despite a general reduction in NO2 concentrations over the study period in the four metropolitan areas, we found contrasting results in the temporal trend of environmental inequalities. There is clear evidence of city-specific spatial and temporal environmental inequalities that relate to the historical socioeconomic make-up of the cities and its evolution. Hence, general statements about environmental and social inequalities can be made.

Background

While a great number of papers have been published on the short-term effects of air pollution on mortality, few have tried to assess whether this association varies according to the neighbourhood socioeconomic level and long-term ambient air concentrations measured at the place of residence. We explored the effect modification of 1) socioeconomic status, 2) long-term NO2 ambient air concentrations, and 3) both combined, on the association between short-term exposure to NO2 and all-cause mortality in Paris (France).

Methods

A time-stratified case-crossover analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of short-term NO2 variations on mortality, based on 79,107 deaths having occurred among subjects aged over 35 years, from 2004 to 2009, in the city of Paris. Simple and double interactions were statistically tested in order to analyse effect modification by neighbourhood characteristics on the association between mortality and short-term NO2 exposure. The data was estimated at the census block scale (n=866).

Results

The mean of the NO2 concentrations during the five days prior to deaths were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality: overall Excess Risk (ER) was 0.94% (95%CI=[0.08;1.80]. A higher risk was revealed for subjects living in the most deprived census blocks in comparison with higher socioeconomic level areas (ER=3.14% (95%CI=[1.41-4.90], p<0.001). Among these deprived census blocks, excess risk was even higher where long-term average NO2 concentrations were above 55.8 μg/m3 (the top tercile of distribution): ER=4.84% (95%CI=[1.56;8.24], p for interaction=0.02).

Conclusion

Our results show that people living in census blocks characterized by low socioeconomic status are more vulnerable to air pollution episodes. There is also an indication that people living in these disadvantaged census blocks might experience even higher risk following short-term air pollution episodes, when they are also chronically exposed to higher NO2 levels.