In California, it is essential to understand the evolution of water resources in response to a changing climate to sustain its economy and agriculture and to build resilient communities. Although extreme conditions have characterized the historical hydroclimate of California, climate change will likely intensify hydroclimatic extremes by the end of the century (EoC). However, few studies have investigated the impacts of EoC extremes on watershed hydrology. We use cutting-edge global climate and integrated hydrologic models to simulate EoC extremes and their effects on the water-energy balance. We assess the impacts of projected driest, median, and wettest water years under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 on the hydrodynamics of the Cosumnes River basin. Substantial changes to annual average temperature (> +2.5 °C) and precipitation (> +38 %) will characterize the EoC extreme water years compared to their historical counterparts. A shift in the dominant form of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, is projected to fall earlier. These changes reduce snowpack by more than 90 %, increase peak surface water and groundwater storages up to 75 % and 23 %, respectively, and drive the timing of peak storage to occur earlier in the year. Because EoC temperatures and soil moisture are high, both potential and actual evapotranspiration (ET) increase. The latter, along with the lack of snowmelt in the warm EoC, causes surface water and groundwater storages to significantly decrease in summer, with groundwater showing the highest rates of decrease. These changes result in more ephemeral EoC streams with more focused flow and increased storage in the mainstem of the river network during the summer.

Hillslope similarity is an active topic in hydrology because of its importance in improving our understanding of hydrologic processes and enabling comparisons and paired studies. In this study, we propose a holistic bottom-up hillslope clustering based on a region's integrative hydrodynamic response quantified by the seasonal changes in groundwater levels "P. The main advantage of the "P clustering is its ability to capture recharge and discharge processes. We test the performance of the "P clustering by comparing it to seven other common hillslope clustering approaches. These include clustering approaches based on the aridity index, topographic wetness index, elevation, land cover, and machine-learning that jointly integrate multiple data. We assess the ability of these clustering approaches to identify and categorize hillslopes with similar static characteristics, hydroclimate, land surface processes, and subsurface dynamics in a mountainous watershed - the East River - located in the headwaters of the Upper Colorado River Basin. The "P clustering performs very well in identifying hillslopes with six out of the nine characteristics studied. The variability among clusters as quantified by the coefficient of variation (0.2) is less in the "P and the machine learning approaches than in the others (>0.3 for TWI, elevation, and land cover). We further demonstrate the robustness of the "P clustering by testing its ability to predict hillslope responses to wet and dry hydrologic conditions, of which it performs well when based on average conditions.