This study aims to assess the techno-economic potential of biomass and hybrid biomass-RE systems for India’s evolving grid by considering the biomass supply chain, fuel availability, and technical operation constraints. It estimates the potential value of biomass-based power plants to the Indian grid in 2030, with high RE penetration, and evaluates the capability of biomass-based power plants to provide the necessary grid balancing services that would be required. We conclude that biomass plants can add significant value to the system in terms of capacity and energy while improving the overall affordability, stability, and reliability of grid power. Biomass-based systems would significantly improve the capacity value of India’s 2030 projected RE resource mix (450 GW of solar-plus-wind installed capacity). However, the total value to the grid would be lower than the levelized cost of new systems without accounting for environmental and waste management benefits. If streamlining the supply chain could reduce biomass fuel costs, and hence variable costs, the economics could be more favorable.

This study assesses a least-cost and operationally feasible pathway for India’s electricity grid through 2030 that validates—and surpasses—India’s 2030 target of 500 GW of installed non-fossil capacity. Using the latest cost trends, an industry-standard power system modeling platform (PLEXOS), and exhaustive analytical methods (optimal capacity expansion and hourly grid dispatch), we find that the least-cost resource mix to meet India’s load in 2030 (the “Primary Least Cost Case”) consists primarily of a combination of RE and flexible resources as follows: 465 GW of RE (307 GWDC solar, 142 GW wind, and 15 GW other RE), 63 GW (252 GWh) of battery storage, 60 GW of load shifting to solar hours (50 GW agricultural + 10 GW industrial), and flexible operation of the existing natural gas fleet of 25 GW. A coal power plant capacity of 229 GW (23 GW net addition over 2020) is found to be cost-effective. The study shows that between 2020 and 2030 the average cost of electricity generation drops by nearly 8-10%. In addition, despite a near doubling of electricity demand between 2020 and 2030, the emissions intensity of electricity generation drops by 43-50%, while total CO2 emissions from the power sector stay almost the same as 2020 levels. India’s coal consumption in the power sector by 2030 is comparable to the 2020 level, implying that the clean energy transition may not lead to loss of coal mining/supply chain jobs in the near to medium term, potentially giving India sufficient time to prepare for a long-term transition. For India to achieve the least-cost resource mix indicated in this study, critical policy and regulatory changes such as a long-term resource adequacy framework for system planning and procurement, a regulatory framework for energy storage that values its full functionality, and natural gas reforms that promote flexible and efficient operations of the gas pipelines and power plants should be implemented.

In this policy brief, we summarize insights from recent studies on decarbonization pathways for the transportation sector in South Asia, particularly India. Lithium-ion battery prices have declined sharply over the last ten years. Therefore, in the short-to-medium term, battery-electric drivetrains are a cost effective alternative to petrol and diesel combustion engines. Electrification of transport would have immense environmental benefits for South Asia, which is home to 42 out of the top 50 world's most polluted cities. Given that oil consumption in India is dominated by heavy-duty-vehicles (HDVs), we focus on techno-economics of trucks and buses, along with high-mileage commercial vehicles such as app-based taxi services. We conclude that truck, intra-city and inter-city buses are already cheaper on the basis of total cost of ownership (TCO) over the lifetime of the vehicle. We describe the current policy scenario, challenges and outline recommendations for accelerating deployment of electric vehicles.

In this policy brief, we assess the prerequisites for India to achieve 450 GW of solar and wind cumulative installed capacity by 2030. We examine requirements such as availability of land, new transmission buildout, financing and pace of deployment, as well as the impact on grid reliability and cost of generation. We also examine the impact of policies promoting domestic manufacturing. Deploying 307 GW of solar and 142 GW of wind capacity would use only about 1.25% of land that is categorized as barren or waste, which is equivalent to about 0.22% of the total land area in India. Because of the good solar resource across large swaths of India, the solar energy buildout—and thus the land use—potentially can be spread out. India would need about 280 GW of new interstate transmission capacity by 2030, a little over double the transmission expansion that has already been planned through 2025. However, most of the new transmission buildout is driven by the near doubling of electricity demand between 2020 and 2030. The total investment needed (in generation and storage resources) to realize this target is around USD 26.5 billion annually, which is 20% lower than the annual investment in India’s power sector across all generation resources between 2015 and 2019. We estimate that using domestically manufactured panels instead of imported panels may increase solar PPA prices by about 10%–15% in the medium term, but solar power would still be a cost-effective way to meet growing demand instead of building new fossil fuel-based power plants, because the price of electricity from solar plants has fallen below the variable cost of most existing coal units. To reach this target, India would need to build about 35–40 GW of solar and wind capacity every year in this decade. India’s power sector achieved a pace of capacity addition of 22 GW per year in the previous decade (including thermal and renewable). Policy and regulatory measures would be needed to increase the pace of deployment.

National modeling by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) found that least-cost, operationally feasible pathways for India’s power sector through 2030 consist primarily of investments in renewable energy and flexible resources (with limited additions to coal capacity), including: renewable generation (450-530 GWDC solar and wind, 15 GW other RE), energy storage (60-85 GW), load shifting (60 GW), interstate transmission (140 GW), more flexible operation of existing natural gas generation (25 GW), and development of a more liquid national electricity market. The LBNL national study illustrates that with increases in power system flexibility, India can meet — or even exceed — Prime Minister Modi’s announced target of 450 GW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2030, while reducing costs and increasing power system reliability. While the modeling study provides a long-term vision, policy and regulatory changes would be needed to achieve that vision, and our recommendations focus on three main areas: resource adequacy (RA), state resource planning and procurement, and short-term markets and system operations. Well-designed system planning and RA frameworks, coordinated with state-level resource planning and procurement and supported by electricity markets, are critical to scaling renewables deployment with less curtailment and less financial and operational stress on conventional assets. System planning and RA frameworks can help facilitate generation capacity sharing among states, increasing utilization of existing generation assets. They also ensure that electricity supply remains reliable and resilient in response to extreme weather events (e.g., heat and cold waves) and as higher capacities of variable renewable generation are added to the Indian electricity system. Enhancing state-level resource planning and procurement practices would enable states/Discoms to construct least-cost portfolios of renewable, thermal, and storage resources that meet national RA requirements. Electricity markets and system operations provide the connective tissue, assuring that all planned and procured RA capacity will be available when needed and will be operated when economic to do so. In the longer term, markets must be more closely aligned with real-time operations and facilitate energy storage participation.

Prime Minister Modi’s commitment to Atmanirbhar Bharat aims to make India energy independent by 2047. However, India currently imports 90% of its oil and 80% of industrial coal. Price and supply volatility in global energy markets, as witnessed in recent years, strain India’s foreign exchange reserves, resulting in economy-wide inflation. Recent dramatic declines in clean energy costs provide India an opportunity to lower energy imports through investment in renewable energy, battery storage, EVs, and green hydrogen. This study assesses a pathway for India to meet its growing energy needs and achieve near-complete energy independence by 2047, focused on India’s three largest energy consuming sectors –power, transport, and industry — which collectively account for more than 80% of energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions. Key findings are as follows: 1. Energy independence involves investment in renewables, electric vehicles, and green hydrogen. Since much of India’s infrastructure is yet to be built, we find that it is critical to ensure that mos of the new energy assets are clean. This would involve installing more than 500 GW of non-fossil electricity generation capacity by 2030, an 80% clean grid by 2040 and 90% by 2047. Nearly 100% of new vehicle sales could be electric by 2035. Heavy industrial production shifts primarily to green hydrogen and electrification: 90% of iron and steel, 90% of cement, and 100% of fertilizers by 2047. 2. India can achieve energy independence through clean technology by 2047. The transition to electric vehicles could save crude oil imports by over 90% (or $240 billion) by 2047, while green hydrogen based and electrified industrial production would reduce industrial coal imports by 95%. Lithium needed for manufacturing new electric vehicles and grid-scale battery storage systems (~2 million tons cumulative between 2023 and 2040) could be produced domestically using newly discovered reserves. 3. Energy independence is economically advantageous. Clean energy will reduce and inflation-proof India’s energy expenditure as renewables, EV batteries, and hydrogen infrastructure are capital assets with rapidly falling costs. A shift to electric transportation will create $2.5 trillion (INR 19 million crores) in net consumer savings by 2047. Indian industry, to remain globally competitive, must also transition to clean technologies like green steel manufacturing, as major export markets (ex. EU) make carbon neutrality commitments. 4. The clean energy transition would have minimal impacts on tax revenues. Fossil fuel taxes, duties, and royalties contribute ~12% of state and central government revenue. Despite an aggressive clean energy transition, fossil fuel consumption and associated tax revenues will not drop below 2020 levels until the mid-2030s. 5. A rapid expansion of clean energy infrastructure will be needed. Because of transport, industrial electrification and green hydrogen production, electricity demand could increase nearly fivefold — from 1300 TWh/yr to over 6600 TWh/yr by 2050. This would require a massive scale-up of renewable energy deployment to 40 GW/year through 2030, ramping up to about 100 GW/year between 2030 and 2050. Clean energy deployment will be more capital-intensive, needing a net additional investment of $1.5-2 trillion (INR 11-15 million crores) between 2023-2047, compared with business-as-usual. 6. Achieving energy independence could offer environmental and public health benefits without compromising economic growth. With an aggressive clean energy transition, over 4 million air pollution-related premature deaths could be avoided between 2023-2047. India’s CO2 emissions will peak in the early 2030s, before dropping to ~800 million tons/year by 2047 (85-90% of the way to net-zero emissions). 7. Managing the clean energy transition would require significant policy support. The policy ecosystem needs to have five pillars: deployment mandates for commercial / cost-effective clean technologies that provide the economies of scale, financial support for emerging technologies, long-term infrastructure planning, accelerating/scaling domestic manufacturing, and planning for a just transition.