Continental water storage is a key variable in the Earth system that has never been adequately monitored globally. Since variations in water storage on land affect the time dependent component of Earth's gravity field, the NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, which will accurately map the gravity field at 2–4 week intervals, may soon provide global data on temporal changes in continental water storage. This study characterizes water storage changes in 20 drainage basins ranging in size from 130,000 to 5,782,000 km² and uses estimates of uncertainty in the GRACE technique to determine in which basins water storage changes may be detectable by GRACE and how this detectability may vary in space and time. Results indicate that GRACE will likely detect changes in water storage in most of the basins on monthly or longer time steps and that instrument errors, atmospheric modeling errors, and the magnitude of the variations themselves will be the primary controls on the relative accuracy of the GRACE-derived estimates.

Variations in terrestrial water storage affect weather, climate, geophysical phenomena, and life on land, yet observation and understanding of terrestrial water storage are deficient. However, estimates of terrestrial water storage changes soon may be derived from observations of Earth's time-dependent gravity field made by NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Previous studies have evaluated that concept using modeled soil moisture and snow data. This investigation builds upon their results by relying on observations rather than modeled results, by analyzing groundwater and surface water variations as well as snow and soil water variations, and by using a longer time series. Expected uncertainty in GRACE-derived water storage changes are compared to monthly, seasonal, and annual terrestrial water storage changes estimated from observations in Illinois (145,800 km²). Assuming those changes are representative of larger regions, detectability is possible given a 200,000 km² or larger area. Changes in soil moisture are typically the largest component of terrestrial water storage variations, followed by changes in groundwater plus intermediate zone storage.

This paper presents the model development component of a body of research which addresses aggregation and scaling in multiscale hydrological modeling. Water and energy balance models are developed at the local and catchment scales and at the macroscale by aggregating a simple soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer scheme (SVATS) across scales in a topographic framework. A spatially distributed approach is followed to aggregate the SVATS to the catchment scale. A statistical-dynamical approach is utilized to simplify the large-scale modeling problem and to aggregate the SVATS to the macroscale. The resulting macroscale hydrological model is proposed for use as a land surface parameterization in atmospheric models. It differs greatly from the current generation of land surface parameterizations owing to its simplified representation of vertical process physics and its statistical representation of horizontally heterogeneous runoff and energy balance processes. The spatially distributed model formulation is explored to understand the role of spatial variability in determining areal-average fluxes and the dynamics of hydrological processes. The simpler macroscale formulation is analyzed to determine how it represents these important dynamics, with implications for the parameterization of runoff and energy balance processes in atmospheric models.

The role of shallow unconfined aquifers in supplying water for evapotranspiration (i.e., groundwater evaporation) is investigated in this paper. Recent results from regional land surface modeling have indicated that in shallow water table areas, a large portion of evapotranspiration comes directly from aquifers. However, little field evidence at the regional scale has been reported to support this finding. Using a comprehensive 19-yr (1984–2002) monthly hydrological dataset on soil moisture, water table depth, and streamflow in Illinois, regional recharge to and evaporation from groundwater are estimated by using soil water balance computation. The 19-yr mean groundwater recharge is estimated to be 244 mm yr⁻¹(25% of precipitation), with uncertainty ranging from 202 to 278 mm yr⁻¹. During the summer, the upward capillary flux from the shallow aquifer helps to maintain a high rate of evapotranspiration. Groundwater evaporation (negative groundwater recharge) occurs during the period of July–September, with a total of 31.4 mm (10% of evapotranspiration). Analysis of the relative soil saturation at 11 depths from 0 to 2 m deep supports the dominance of groundwater evaporation across the water table in dry periods. The zero-flux plane separating the recharge zone from the evapotranspiration zone propagates downward from about 70- to 110-cm depth during summer, reflecting the water supply from progressively lower layers for evapotranspiration. Despite its small magnitude, neglecting regional groundwater evaporation in shallow groundwater areas would result in underestimated root-zone soil moisture and hence evapotranspiration by as large as 20% in the dry summer seasons.

This paper explores the effects of spatial variability and scale on areally averaged evapotranspiration. A spatially distributed water and energy balance model is employed to determine the effect of explicit patterns of land surface characteristics and atmospheric forcing on areally averaged evapotranspiration over a range of increasing spatial scales. The analysis is performed from the local scale to the catchment scale. The study area is King's Creek catchment, an 11.7 km² watershed located on the native tallgrass prairie of Kansas. It is shown that a threshold scale, or representative elementary area (REA) exists for evapotranspiration modeling. It is shown further that the dominant controls on the scaling behavior of catchment-average evapotranspiration, and thus the size of the REA, depend on the dominant controls on its components (bare-soil evaporation, wet canopy evaporation, and dry canopy transpiration) and whether evapotranspiration is occurring at potential rates or soil- and vegetation-controlled rates. The existence of an REA for evapotranspiration modeling suggests that in catchment areas smaller than this threshold scale, actual patterns of model parameters and inputs may be important factors governing catchment-scale evapotranspiration rates in hydrological models. In models applied at scales greater than the REA scale, spatial patterns of dominant process controls can be represented by their statistical distribution functions. It appears that some of our findings are fairly general and will therefore provide a framework for understanding the scaling behavior of areally averaged evapotranspiration at the catchment and larger scales. Our results may have further implications for representing subgrid-scale land surface heterogeneity in hydrological parameterizations for atmospheric models.