Migratory divides, the boundary between adjacent bird populations that migrate in different directions, are of considerable interest to evolutionary biologists because of their alleged role in speciation of migratory birds. However, the small size of many passerines has traditionally limited the tools available to track populations and as a result, restricted our ability to study how reproductive isolation might occur across a divide. Here, we integrate multiple approaches by using genetic, geolocator, and morphological data to investigate a migratory divide in hermit thrushes (Catharus guttatus). First, high genetic divergence between migratory groups indicates the divide is a region of secondary contact between historically isolated populations. Second, despite low sample sizes, geolocators reveal dramatic differences in overwintering locations and migratory distance of individuals from either side of the divide. Third, a diagnostic genetic marker that proved useful for tracking a key population suggests a likely intermediate nonbreeding location of birds from the hybrid zone. This finding, combined with lower return rates from this region, is consistent with comparatively lower fitness of hybrids, which is possibly due to this intermediate migration pattern. We discuss our results in the context of reproductive isolating mechanisms associated with migration patterns that have long been hypothesized to promote divergence across migratory divides.

An out-of-season H3N2 type A influenza epidemic occurred in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil during October-November 2021, in between the Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 surges, which occurred in July-October 2021 and January-April 2022, respectively. We assessed the contribution of climate change and influenza immunization coverage in this unique, little publicized phenomenon. State weather patterns during the influenza epidemic were significantly different from the five preceding years, matching typical winter temperatures, associated with the out-of-season influenza. We also found a mismatch between influenza vaccine strains used in the winter of 2021 (trivalent vaccine with two type A strains (Victoria/2570/2019 H1N1, Hong Kong/2671/2019 H3N2) and one type B strain (Washington/02/2019, wild type) and the circulating influenza strain responsible for the epidemic (H3N2 Darwin type A influenza strain). In addition, in 2021, there was poor influenza vaccine coverage with only 56% of the population over 6 months old immunized. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, we should be prepared for out-of-season outbreaks of other respiratory viruses in periods of COVID-19 remission, which underscore novel disease dynamics in the pandemic era. The availability of year-round influenza vaccines could help avoid unnecessary morbidity and mortality given that antibodies rapidly wane. Moreover, this would enable unimmunized individuals to have additional opportunities to vaccinate during out-of-season outbreaks.

The burden of arbovirus diseases in Brazil has increased within the past decade due to the emergence of chikungunya and Zika and endemic circulation of all four dengue serotypes. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns may alter conditions to favor vector-host transmission and allow for cyclic re-emergence of disease. We sought to determine the impact of climate conditions on arbovirus co-circulation in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We assessed the spatial and temporal distributions of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika cases from Brazil's national notifiable disease information system (SINAN) and created autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) to predict arbovirus incidence accounting for the lagged effect of temperature and rainfall. Each year, we estimate that the combined arboviruses were associated with an average of 8429 to 10,047 lost Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). After controlling for temperature and precipitation, our model predicted a three cycle pattern where large arbovirus outbreaks appear to be primed by a smaller scale surge and followed by a lull of cases. These dynamic arbovirus patterns in Rio de Janeiro support a mechanism of susceptibility enhancement until the theoretical threshold of population immunity allows for temporary cross protection among certain arboviruses. This suspected synergy presents a major public health challenge due to overlapping locations and seasonality of arbovirus diseases, which may perpetuate disease burden and overwhelm the health system.

Introduction

The increasing burden of non-communicable diseases and limited public financing are major challenges facing health care systems in Latin America. Although COVID-19 severely impacted the Brazilian health care system, it is crucial to further characterize the degree of disruption caused to public health efforts, in order to address and manage long term effects of this pandemic. We therefore quantified the demand for preventive and treatment services from the Brazilian Unified Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde/SUS) in 2020 to evaluate potential repercussions of COVID-19 in this setting.

Methods

Using the SUS database, we compared preventative and treatment services rendered in 2020 to the same services rendered from 2017 to 19. We also evaluated the frequency of respiratory infection (RI) diagnoses during the pandemic, relative to the preceding years.

Results

Compared to 2017-19, in 2020 non-urgent medical appointments decreased 1.4-fold (p = 0.0017), dental consultations 2.8-fold (p = 0.05), and immunization coverage 1.5 fold (p = 0.0005). The number of RI visits to SUS ambulatory care units in 2020 was 4.2 times higher than in preceding years (p = 0.0014), with a peak of 280,898 diagnoses in July 2020.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have led to a dramatic decline in preventative and treatment services provided by SUS to the Brazilian population. Our findings may aid decision-makers in formulating policies to increase the availability of outpatient services in the aftermath of the pandemic. Counter measures will be critical to avoid a resurgence in vaccine-preventable diseases and complications stemming from non-communicable, chronic health conditions.

The recent resurgence of malaria incidence across epidemic regions in South Africa has been linked to climatic and environmental factors. An in-depth investigation of the impact of climate variability and mosquito abundance on malaria parasite incidence may therefore offer useful insight towards the control of this life-threatening disease. In this study, we investigate the influence of climatic factors on malaria transmission over Nkomazi Municipality. The variability and interconnectedness between the variables were analyzed using wavelet coherence analysis. Time-series analyses revealed that malaria cases significantly declined after the outbreak in early 2000, but with a slight increase from 2015. Furthermore, the wavelet coherence and time-lagged correlation analyses identified rainfall and abundance of Anopheles arabiensis as the major variables responsible for malaria transmission over the study region. The analysis further highlights a high malaria intensity with the variables from 1998-2002, 2004-2006, and 2010-2013 and a noticeable periodicity value of 256-512 days. Also, malaria transmission shows a time lag between one month and three months with respect to mosquito abundance and the different climatic variables. The findings from this study offer a better understanding of the importance of climatic factors on the transmission of malaria. The study further highlights the significant roles of An. arabiensis on malaria occurrence over Nkomazi. Implementing the mosquito model to predict mosquito abundance could provide more insight into malaria elimination or control in Africa.

Preserving biodiversity under rapidly changing climate conditions is challenging. One approach for estimating impacts and their magnitude is to model current relationships between genomic and environmental data and then to forecast those relationships under future climate scenarios. In this way, understanding future genomic and environmental relationships can help guide management decisions, such as where to establish new protected areas where populations might be buffered from high temperatures or major changes in rainfall. However, climate warming is only one of many anthropogenic threats one must consider in rapidly developing parts of the world. In Central Africa, deforestation, mining, and infrastructure development are accelerating population declines of rainforest species. Here we investigate multiple anthropogenic threats in a Central African rainforest songbird, the little greenbul (Andropadus virens). We examine current climate and genomic variation in order to explore the association between genome and environment under future climate conditions. Specifically, we estimate Genomic Vulnerability, defined as the mismatch between current and predicted future genomic variation based on genotype-environment relationships modeled across contemporary populations. We do so while considering other anthropogenic impacts. We find that coastal and central Cameroon populations will require the greatest shifts in adaptive genomic variation, because both climate and land use in these areas are predicted to change dramatically. In contrast, in the more northern forest-savanna ecotones, genomic shifts required to keep pace with climate will be more moderate, and other anthropogenic impacts are expected to be comparatively low in magnitude. While an analysis of diverse taxa will be necessary for making comprehensive conservation decisions, the species-specific results presented illustrate how evolutionary genomics and other anthropogenic threats may be mapped and used to inform mitigation efforts. To this end, we present an integrated conceptual model demonstrating how the approach for a single species can be expanded to many taxonomically diverse species.

Abstract Background Avian influenza virus (AIV) is an important public health issue because pandemic influenza viruses in people have contained genes from viruses that infect birds. The H5 and H7 AIV subtypes have periodically mutated from low pathogenicity to high pathogenicity form. Analysis of the geographic distribution of AIV can identify areas where reassortment events might occur and how high pathogenicity influenza might travel if it enters wild bird populations in the US. Modelling the number of AIV cases is important because the rate of co-infection with multiple AIV subtypes increases with the number of cases and co-infection is the source of reassortment events that give rise to new strains of influenza, which occurred before the 1968 pandemic. Aquatic birds in the orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes have been recognized as reservoirs of AIV since the 1970s. However, little is known about influenza prevalence in terrestrial birds in the order Passeriformes. Since passerines share the same habitat as poultry, they may be more effective transmitters of the disease to humans than aquatic birds. We analyze 152 passerine species including the American Robin (Turdus migratorius) and Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus). Methods We formulate a regression model to predict AIV cases throughout the US at the county scale as a function of 12 environmental variables, sampling effort, and proximity to other counties with influenza outbreaks. Our analysis did not distinguish between types of influenza, including low or highly pathogenic forms. Results Analysis of 13,046 cloacal samples collected from 225 bird species in 41 US states between 2005 and 2008 indicates that the average prevalence of influenza in passerines is greater than the prevalence in eight other avian orders. Our regression model identifies the Great Plains and the Pacific Northwest as high-risk areas for AIV. Highly significant predictors of AIV include the amount of harvested cropland and the first day of the year when a county is snow free. Conclusions Although the prevalence of influenza in waterfowl has long been appreciated, we show that 22 species of song birds and perching birds (order Passeriformes) are influenza reservoirs in the contiguous US.

Through the rise of global commodity chains, consumer demand in China and the USA has given rise to the extraction of natural resources in the Congo Basin. The Chinese market for high-valued animal products such as elephant ivory and pangolin scales has encouraged poaching, exploitation and trafficking of these goods in Africa. Chinese demand for other African commodities, however, remains less well known. Using data across a 15-year period (2001–2015), we analysed the relationship between Chinese timber imports and tree-cover loss in the Congo Basin. Tree-cover loss was measured via remote sensing and the value of imports was obtained from official trade statistics. Results indicate that the total accumulated export of wood from Congo Basin countries to China doubled between 2001 and 2015, with 50% of exports originating from Cameroon and the Republic of Congo. We found a positive relationship between measures of Chinese logging and the loss of tree cover in the Congo Basin. Further investigation of the timber products market showed that US demand for Chinese-made furniture was positively correlated with Chinese timber imports from the Congo Basin. These findings suggest that US demand for furniture encourages Chinese economic actors to harvest timber from Congo Basin forests. Our results help to illuminate the complex environmental and economic drivers surrounding trade and deforestation and can help inform consumers about more sustainable ways to purchase wood products from one of the world's preeminent biodiversity hotspots.

OBJECTIVE:To test the hypotheses that emerging viruses are associated with neurological hospitalizations and that statistical models can be used to predict neurological sequelae from viral infections. METHODS:An ecological study was carried out to observe time trends in the number of hospitalizations with inflammatory polyneuropathy and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in the state of Rio de Janeiro from 1997 to 2017. Increases in GBS from month to month were assessed using a Farrington test. In addition, a cross-sectional study was conducted analyzing 50 adults hospitalized for inflammatory polyneuropathies from 2015 to 2017. The extent to which Zika virus symptoms explained GBS hospitalizations was evaluated using a calibration test. RESULTS:There were significant increases (Farrington test, P<0.001) in the incidence of GBS following the introduction of influenza A/H1N1 in 2009, dengue virus type 4 in 2013, and Zika virus in 2015. Of 50 patients hospitalized, 14 (28.0%) were diagnosed with arboviruses, 9 (18.0%) with other viruses, and the remainder with other causes of such neuropathies. Statistical models based on cases of emerging viruses accurately predicted neurological sequelae, such as GBS. CONCLUSION:The introduction of novel viruses increases the incidence of inflammatory neuropathies.

Background

Vaccination efforts to eradicate polio currently focus on children under 5 years of age, among whom most cases of poliomyelitis still occur. However, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), an outbreak of wild poliovirus type 1 occurred in 2010-2011 in which 16% of cases occurred among adults; in a related outbreak in the neighboring Republic of Congo, 75% of cases occurred among the same adult age-group. Given that infected adults may transmit poliovirus, this study was designed to assess adult immunity against polioviruses.

Methods

We assessed poliovirus seroprevalence using dried blood spots from 5,526 adults aged 15-59 years from the 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Survey in the DRC.

Results

Among adults in the DRC, 74%, 72%, and 57% were seropositive for neutralizing antibodies for poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3, respectively. For all three serotypes, seroprevalence tended to be higher among older age groups, those living in households with more children, and among women.

Conclusions

Protection against poliovirus is generally low among adults in the DRC, particularly for type 3 poliovirus. The lack of acquired immunity in adults suggests a potentially limited poliovirus circulation over the lifetime of those surveyed (spanning 1954 through 2014) and transmission of vaccine-derived poliovirus in this age group while underscoring the risk of these outbreaks among adults in the DRC.