Background & aims

We created and validated a clinical decision support tool (CDST) to predict outcomes of vedolizumab therapy for ulcerative colitis (UC).

Methods

We performed logistic regression analyses of data from the GEMINI 1 trial, from 620 patients with UC who received vedolizumab induction and maintenance therapy (derivation cohort), to identify factors associated with corticosteroid-free remission (full Mayo score of 2 or less, no subscore above 1). We used these factors to develop a model to predict outcomes of treatment, which we called the vedolizumab CDST. We evaluated the correlation between exposure and efficacy. We validated the CDST in using data from 199 patients treated with vedolizumab in routine practice in the United States from May 2014 through December 2017.

Results

Absence of exposure to a tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonist (+3 points), disease duration of 2 y or more (+3 points), baseline endoscopic activity (moderate vs severe) (+2 points), and baseline albumin concentration (+0.65 points per 1 g/L) were independently associated with corticosteroid-free remission during vedolizumab therapy. Patients in the derivation and validation cohorts were assigned to groups of low (CDST score, 26 points or less), intermediate (CDST score, 27-32 points), or high (CDST score, 33 points or more) probability of vedolizumab response. We observed a statistically significant linear relationship between probability group and efficacy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.65), as well as drug exposure (P < .001) in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort, a cutoff value of 26 points identified patients who did not respond to vedolizumab with high sensitivity (93%); only the low and intermediate probability groups benefited from reducing intervals of vedolizumab administration due to lack of response (P = .02). The vedolizumab CDST did not identify patients with corticosteroid-free remission during TNF antagonist therapy.

Conclusions

We used data from a trial of patients with UC to develop a scoring system, called the CDST, which identified patients most likely to enter corticosteroid-free remission during vedolizumab therapy, but not anti-TNF therapy. We validated the vedolizumab CDST in a separate cohort of patients in clinical practice. The CDST identified patients most likely to benefited from reducing intervals of vedolizumab administration due to lack of initial response. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT00783718.