BACKGROUND: The pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis (MS) requires both genetic factors and environmental events. The question remains, however, whether these factors and events completely describe the MS disease process. This question was addressed using the Canadian MS data, which includes 29 478 individuals, estimated to represent 65-83% of all Canadian patients with MS. METHOD: The genetically-susceptible subset of the population, (G), includes everyone who has any non-zero life-time chance of developing MS, under some environmental conditions. A sufficient environmental exposure, for any genetically-susceptible individual, includes every set of environmental conditions, each of which is sufficient, by itself, to cause MS in that person. This analysis incorporates many epidemiological parameters, involved in MS pathogenesis, only some of which are directly observable, and establishes plausible value ranges for each parameter. Those parameter value combinations (ie, solutions) that fall within these plausible ranges are then determined. RESULTS: Only a small proportion of the population (≤52%) has any possibility of developing MS, regardless of any environmental conditions that they could experience. Moreover, some of these genetically-susceptible individuals, despite their experiencing a sufficient environmental exposure, will still not develop disease. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis explicitly includes all of those genetic factors and environmental events (including their interactions), which are necessary for MS pathogenesis, regardless of whether these factors, events and interactions are known, suspected or as yet unrecognised. Nevertheless, in addition, a truly random mechanism also seems to play a critical role in disease pathogenesis. This observation provides empirical evidence, which undermines the widely-held deterministic view of nature. Moreover, both sexes seem to share a similar genetic and environmental disease basis. If so, then it is this random mechanism, which is primarily responsible for the currently-observed differences in MS disease expression between susceptible women and susceptible men.

Making only the assumption that twins are representative of the population from which they are drawn, we here develop a simple mathematical model (using widely available epidemiological information) that sheds considerable light on the pathogenesis of comp

Abstact Background MS-pathogenesis is known to involve both multiple environmental events, and several independent genetic risk-factors. Methods A model of susceptibility is developed and a mathematical analysis undertaken to elucidate the nature of genetic susceptibility to MS and to understand the constraints that are placed on the genetic basis of MS, both by the known epidemiological facts of this disease and by the known frequency of the HLA DRB1*1501 allele in the general populations of northern Europe and North America. Results For the large majority of cases (possibly all), MS develops, in part, because an individual is genetically susceptible. Nevertheless, 2.2% or less of the general population is genetically susceptible. Moreover, from the model, the number of susceptibility-loci that need to be in a "susceptible allelic state" to produce MS-susceptibility is small (11-18), whereas the total number of such susceptibility-loci is large (50-200), and their "frequency of susceptibility" is low (i.e., ≤ 0.12). The optimal solution to the model equations (which occurs when 80% of the loci are recessive) predicts the epidemiological data quite closely. Conclusions The model suggests that combinations of only a small number of genetic loci in a "susceptible allelic state" produce MS-susceptibility. Nevertheless, genome-wide associations studies with hundreds of thousands of SNPs, are plagued by both false-positive and false-negative identifications and, consequently, emphasis has been rightly placed on the replicability of findings. Nevertheless, because genome-wide screens don't distinguish between true susceptibility-loci and disease-modifying-loci, and because only true susceptibility-loci are constrained by the model, unraveling the two will not be possible using this approach. The model also suggests that HLA DRB1 may not be as uniquely important for MS-susceptibility as currently believed. Thus, this allele is only one among a hundred or more loci involved in MS susceptibility. Even though the "frequency of susceptibility" at the HLA DRB1 locus is four-fold that of other loci, the penetrance of those susceptible genotypes that include this allele is no different from those that don't. Also, almost 50% of genetically-susceptible individuals, lack this allele. Moreover, of those who have it, only a small fraction (≤ 5.2%) are even susceptible to getting MS.

Background

MS pathogenesis seems to involve both genetic susceptibility and environmental risk factors. Three sequential factors are implicated in the environmental risk. The first acts near birth, the second acts during childhood, and the third acts long thereafter. Two candidate factors (vitamin D deficiency and Epstein-Barr viral infection) seem well suited to the first two environmental events.

Methodology/principal findings

A mathematical Model for MS pathogenesis is developed, incorporating these environmental and genetic factors into a causal scheme that can explain some of the recent changes in MS-epidemiology (e.g., increasing disease prevalence, a changing sex-ratio, and regional variations in monozygotic twin concordance rates).

Conclusions/significance

This Model suggests that genetic susceptibility is overwhelmingly the most important determinant of MS pathogenesis. Indeed, over 99% of individuals seem genetically incapable of developing MS, regardless of what environmental exposures they experience. Nevertheless, the contribution of specific genes to MS-susceptibility seems only modest. Thus, despite HLA DRB1*1501 being the most consistently identified genetic marker of MS-susceptibility (being present in over 50% of northern MS patient populations), only about 1% of individuals with this allele are even genetically susceptible to getting MS. Moreover, because genetic susceptibility seems so similar throughout North America and Europe, environmental differences principally determine the regional variations in disease characteristics. Additionally, despite 75% of MS-patients being women, men are 60% more likely to be genetically-susceptible than women. Also, men develop MS at lower levels of environmental exposure than women. Nevertheless, women are more responsive to the recent changes in environmental-exposure (whatever these have been). This explains both the changing sex-ratio and the increasing disease prevalence (which has increased by a minimum of 32% in Canada over the past 35 years). As noted, environmental risk seems to result from three sequential components of environmental exposure. The potential importance of this Model for MS pathogenesis is that, if correct, a therapeutic strategy, designed to interrupt one or more of these sequential factors, has the potential to markedly reduce or eliminate disease prevalence in the future.

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identify disease-associations for single-nucleotide-polymorphisms (SNPs) from scattered genomic-locations. However, SNPs frequently reside on several different SNP-haplotypes, only some of which may be dis

A variation in the difficulty of an auditory discrimination was used to investigate the relationship between the event-related P165, N2 and P3 components of the auditory evoked potential. Equivalent increases in the latencies of all 3 components were found with increased task difficulty. The P165 component, however, could be differentiated from the two later components since it increased in amplitude with increased task demands while the N2 and P3 amplitudes remained constant. It is suggested that the P165, N2 and P3 components comprise a functional sequence in the processing of rare events and possibly involved in a subject's preparations for the future.

A waveform subtraction procedure, in which evoked potentials to rare tones (p=.15) in an Ignore condition were subtracted from the analogous waveforms in an Attend condition, revealed the existence of a previously unreported positive potential with a latency of approximately 165 msec (P165) which is related to cognitive stimulus processing. The potential was absent for frequent background tones. An analysis of latency and scalp distribution data showed that P165 could be differentiated from the stimulus‐evoked P200 potential, and experiments in which muscle tension was varied did not change the form of P165, supporting a neurogenic origin. Most likely P165 is an early manifestation of decision processes related to the later N200 and P300 potentials. Copyright © 1978, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved

Auditory evoked potentials were recorded from 47 subjects ranging in age from 6 to 76 years in order to assess the effects of maturation and aging on the evoked (N1 and P2) and event-related (N2 and P3) components. Because of clear differences in the effects of age on the event-related components between children (less than 15 years of age) and adults the subjects were divided into two populations for analysis. For adults there was a systematic increase in the latency and decrease in amplitude of each component with age. Also the rate of the age-related increase in latency was proportional to the latency of the component. The scalp distributions of both the stimulus-evoked and event-related components were found to vary with age yielding a more nearly equipotential distribution for older subjects. For children the latencies of the event-related components decreased with age. The stimulus-evoked components had latencies which were not significantly different from those predicted from the adult data. In contrast to the adult data, age affected the scalp distributions of the stimulus-evoked components differently than the event-related components. These results suggest an aging process is relfected in the auditory evoked potential which is not the simple inverse of maturational processes.

Objective

To determine the relationship between highly-conserved extended-haplotypes (CEHs) in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) and MS-susceptibility.

Background

Among the ~200 MS-susceptibility regions, which are known from genome-wide analyses of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), the MHC accounts for roughly a third of the currently explained variance and the strongest MS-associations are for certain Class II alleles (e.g., HLA-DRB1*15:01; HLA-DRB1*03:01; and HLA-DRB1*13:03), which frequently reside on CEHs within the MHC.

Design/methods

Autosomal SNPs (441,547) from 11,376 MS cases and 18,872 controls in the WTCCC dataset were phased. The most significant MS associated SNP haplotype was composed of 11 SNPs in the MHC Class II region surrounding the HLA-DRB1 gene. We also phased alleles at the HLA-A, HLA-C, HLA-B, HLA-DRB1, and HLA-DQB1 loci. This data was used to probe the relationship between CEHs and MS susceptibility.

Results

We phased a total of 59,884 extended haplotypes (HLA-A, HLA-C, HLA-B, HLA-DRB1, HLA-DQB1 and SNP haplotypes) from 29,942 individuals. Of these, 10,078 unique extended haplotypes were identified. The 10 most common CEHs accounted for 22% (13,302) of the total. By contrast, the 8,446 least common extended haplotypes also accounted for approximately 20% (12,298) of the total. This extreme frequency-disparity among extended haplotypes necessarily complicates interpretation of reported disease-associations with specific HLA alleles. In particular, the HLA motif HLA-DRB1*15:01~HLA-DQB1*06:02 is strongly associated with MS risk. Nevertheless, although this motif is almost always found on the a1 SNP haplotype, it can rarely be found on others (e.g., a27 and a36), and, in these cases, it seems to have no apparent disease-association (OR = 0.7; CI = 0.3-1.3 and OR = 0.7; CI = 0.2-2.2, respectively). Furthermore, single copy carriers of the a1 SNP-haplotype without this HLA motif still have an increased disease risk (OR = 2.2; CI = 1.2-3.8). In addition, even among the set of CEHs, which carry the Class II motif of HLA-DRB1*15:01~HLA-DQB1*06:02~a1, different CEHs have differing strengths in their MS-associations.

Conclusions

The MHC in diverse human populations consists, primarily, of a very small collection of very highly-selected CEHs. Our findings suggest that the MS-association with the HLA-DRB1*15:01~HLA-DQB1*06:02 haplotype may be due primarily to the combined attributes of the CEHs on which this particular HLA-motif often resides.