Circulation in Clifton Court Forebay (CCF) was simulated using the three-dimensional (3–D) hydrodynamic model UnTRIM. These numerical simulations were performed to provide a better understanding of circulation patterns, flow pathways, and residence time in Clifton Court Forebay in support of ongoing studies of pre-screen loss and fish facility efficiency for delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) at the California State Water Project (SWP) export facilities. The 3–D hydrodynamic model of CCF was validated through comparisons to observed water surface elevations inside CCF, and comparisons to observed drifter paths and velocity measurements collected by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of this study. Flow measurements collected near the radial gates for 2 days during relatively low inflows suggest that the Hills (1988) gate equations may over-estimate inflow by as much as 39% when the CCF radial gates are only partially opened. Several alternative approaches to improve the implementation of the radial gate flows in the UnTRIM model were evaluated. The resulting model accurately predicts water surface elevations and currents inside CCF over a range of wind and operating conditions. The validated model was used to predict residence time and other transport time scales for two 21-day simulation periods, one of very low daily SWP export pumping averaging 19.3 m³ s^-1 and one for moderate daily SWP export pumping averaging 66.6 m³ s^-1. The average transit time, indicating the time from entering CCF to reaching the fish facility, was estimated as 9.1 days for low export conditions and 4.3 days for moderate export conditions.  These transport time scale estimates may be used to inform estimates of pre-screen losses inside CCF due to predation or other causes.

The San Francisco Estuary and its upstream watershed have been highly altered by human development following the California Gold Rush in the mid-19th century. In this paper, we explore the inter- and intra-annual variability of freshwater flow to this estuary and the resulting salt intrusion under scenarios that represent pre-development and contemporary conditions. To place this comparison in context with the advent of systematic and accurate flow and salinity measurements in the estuary, we consider an additional “pre-project” scenario that represents early 20th-century water management (circa 1920), after major flood control and reclamation but before the introduction of large water storage, diversion, and export operations. We use an observed climate record that spans 82 years to compare freshwater flow associated with the scenarios’ landscape and water use characteristics. Using published relationships between flow and salt intrusion length developed from three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling, we evaluate the effect of these flow alterations as well as estuarine geometry modifications and historically-observed sea-level rise on salt intrusion. We conclude that the pre-development estuary exhibited a more seasonally-variable salinity regime, resulting from a more variable inflow regime from the upstream watershed.

We applied a water balance model to predict tidally averaged (subtidal) flows through the Old River and Middle River corridor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. We reviewed the dynamics that govern subtidal flows and water levels and adopted a simplified representation. In this water balance approach, we estimated ungaged flows as linear functions of known (or specified) flows. We assumed that subtidal storage within the control volume varies because of fortnightly variation in subtidal water level, Delta inflow, and barometric pressure. The water balance model effectively predicts subtidal flows and approaches the accuracy of a 1–D Delta hydrodynamic model. We explore the potential to improve the approach by representing more complex dynamics and identify possible future improvements.

We used the UnTRIM San Francisco Bay–Delta hydrodynamic model to examine the spatial distribution of salinity as a function of freshwater flow in the San Francisco Estuary. Our particular focus was the covariation of flow with the spatial extent of the low-salinity zone (LSZ: salinity = 0.5 to 6), and with the extent of habitat for common species of -nekton as defined by their salinity ranges. The UnTRIM model has an unstructured grid which allowed us to refine earlier estimates of the availability of suitable salinity ranges, particularly for species resident in low salinity. The response of the salinity field to flow was influenced by the bathymetry of the estuary. Area and volume of the LSZ were bimodal with X2, the distance up the axis of the estuary to a near-bottom salinity of 2, roughly the middle of the LSZ. The smallest area and volume occurred when the LSZ was in the Delta or Carquinez Strait, moderate values when it was in Suisun Bay, and the highest values when it was in broad, shallow San Pablo Bay. Resource selection functions for the distributions of common nekton species in salinity space were up-dated from previous values and used to calculate salinity-based habitat indices using the UnTRIM results. These indices generally increased with decreasing X2 (increasing flow), but the slopes of these relationships were mostly inconsistent with corresponding relationships of abundance to flow. Thus, although the salinity range used by most nekton expands as flow increases, other mechanisms relating population size to flow are likely more important than the physical extent of suitable salinity.

Simulations of circulation in the San Francisco Estuary were performed with the three-dimensional TRIM3D hydrodynamic model using a generic length scale turbulence closure. The model was calibrated to reproduce observed tidal elevations, tidal currents, and salinity observations in the San Francisco Estuary using data collected during 1996-1998, a period of high and variable freshwater flow. It was then validated for 1994-1995, with emphasis on spring of 1994, a period of intensive data collection in the northern estuary. The model predicts tidal elevations and tidal currents accurately, and realistically predicts salinity at both the seasonal and tidal time scales. The model represents salt intrusion into the estuary accurately, and therefore accurately represents the salt balance. The model’s accuracy is adequate for its intended purposes of predicting salinity, analyzing gravitational circulation, and driving a particle-tracking model. Two applications were used to demonstrate the utility of the model. We estimated the components of the longitudinal salt flux and examined their dependence on flow conditions, and compared predicted salt intrusion with estimates from two empirical models.

There has been considerable debate about effects of entrainment of endangered Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) at water export facilities located in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. In this paper we use a behavior-driven movement model (BMM) to simulate the movement of adult Delta Smelt, which, in conjunction with a population dynamics model, estimates the proportion of the population that is lost to entrainment, i.e., proportional entrainment loss (PEL). Parameters of the population model are estimated by maximum likelihood by comparing predictions to data from Fall Midwater Trawl (FMWT) and Spring Kodiak Trawl (SKT) surveys, as well as to daily salvage estimates. Our objectives are to evaluate different movement behavior hypotheses, to rank estimates of PEL based on how well predictions fit the data, and to sharpen our understanding of the data to inform future research and monitoring decisions.

We applied the modeling framework to data from water year 2002—a year when salvage was high—and tested 30 combinations of six behavior and five population dynamics models. More complex process and observation assumptions in the population model led to much improved fits in most cases, but did not appreciably influence PEL predictions, which were largely determined by movement predictions from the BMMs. Estimates of PEL varied considerably among behaviors (2% to 40%). The model with the highest predictive capability explained 98% of the variation in FMWT data across regions, 70% of the variation in SKT data across regions and surveys, and 28% and 43% of the daily variation in salvage at federal and state fish screening facilities, respectively. The PEL estimate from this model was 35%, more than double the original estimate from Kimmerer (2008) of 15%. While PEL estimates provided in this study should be considered preliminary, our framework for testing combined behavior-driven movement models and population dynamics models is an improvement compared to earlier efforts.

The three-dimensional UnTRIM San Francisco Bay–Delta model was applied to simulate tidal hydrodynamics and salinity in the San Francisco Estuary (estuary) using an unstructured grid. We compared model predictions to observations of water level, tidal flow, current speed, and salinity collected at 137 locations throughout the estuary. A quantitative approach based on multiple model assessment metrics was used to evaluate the model's accuracy for each comparison. These comparisons demonstrate that the model accurately predicted water level, tidal flow, and salinity during a 3-year simulation period that spanned a large range of flow and salinity conditions. The model is therefore suitable for detailed investigation of circulation patterns and salinity distributions in the estuary.

The model was used to investigate the location, and spatial and temporal extent of the low-salinity zone (LSZ), defined by salinity between 0.5 and 6 psu. We calculated X2, the distance up the axis of the estuary to the daily-averaged 2-psu near-bed salinity, and the spatial extent of the LSZ for each day during the 3-year simulation. The location, area, volume, and average depth of the low-salinity zone varied with X2; however this variation was not monotonic and was largely controlled by the geometry of the estuary.

We used predicted daily X2 values and the corresponding daily Delta outflow for each day during the 3-year simulation to develop a new equation to relate X2 to Delta outflow. This equation provides a conceptual improvement over previous equations by allowing the time constant for daily changes in X2 to vary with flow conditions. This improvement resulted in a smaller average error in X2 prediction than previous equations. These analyses demonstrate that a well-calibrated three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic model is a valuable tool for investigating the salinity distributions in the estuary, and their influence on the distribution and abundance of physical habitat.

In 2015, the fourth year of the recent drought, the California Department of Water Resources installed a rock barrier across False River west of Franks Tract to limit salt intrusion into the Delta at minimal cost in freshwater. This Barrier blocked flow in False River, greatly reducing landward salt transport by decreasing tidal dispersion in Franks Tract. We investigated some ecological consequences of the Barrier, examining its effects on water circulation and exchange, on distributions of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and bivalves, and on phytoplankton and zooplankton. The Barrier allowed SAV to spread to areas of Franks Tract that previously had been clear. The distributions of bivalves (Potamocorbula and Corbicula) responded to the changes in salinity at time–scales of months for newly settled individuals, to 1 or more years for adults, but the Barrier’s effect was confounded with that of the drought. Nutrients, phytoplankton biomass, and a Microcystis abundance index showed little response to the Barrier. Transport of copepods — determined using output from a particle-tracking model — indicated some intermediate-scale reduction with the Barrier in place, but monitoring data did not show a larger-scale response in abundance. These studies were conducted separately and synthesized after the fact, and relied on reference conditions that were not always suitable for identifying the Barrier’s effects. If barriers are considered in the future, we rcommend a modest program of investigation to replicate study elements, and to ensure suitable reference conditions are available to allow barrier effects to be distinguished unambiguously from other sources of variability.